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Post by falconquest on Nov 23, 2020 11:53:10 GMT -5
Ok, so we continue to see a rate of increase in the share price that is quite out of character for Mannkind. Sure, they recently received the milestone payment from UTHR which should have been baked in. However, we are still facing the prospect of dilution coming up soon so what is driving this share price? Don't get me wrong I think it is great, I just wonder what is behind it. Without some plausible explanation I fear it may retreat at an even faster rate than the increase. So if we could leave aside any unrelated comments, I would like to see legitimate ideas on what has changed. Why now? If, as a group we can't put our finger on it then that says something as well.
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Post by thekid2499 on Nov 23, 2020 12:04:32 GMT -5
It's significantly undervalued - maybe investors are realizing that as we get closer to Trep T approval and launch. To me, low end of fair value right now is $8 per share. It could retreat back down some, which would make it, wait for it, even more undervalued.
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Post by obamayoumama on Nov 23, 2020 12:08:45 GMT -5
Ok, so we continue to see a rate of increase in the share price that is quite out of character for Mannkind. Sure, they recently received the milestone payment from UTHR which should have been baked in. However, we are still facing the prospect of dilution coming up soon so what is driving this share price? Don't get me wrong I think it is great, I just wonder what is behind it. Without some plausible explanation I fear it may retreat at an even faster rate than the increase. So if we could leave aside any unrelated comments, I would like to see legitimate ideas on what has changed. Why now? If, as a group we can't put our finger on it then that says something as well. I will place my guess. UTHR will finish testing before the end of the year, an announcement will happen. UTHR will submit for approval 1st or 2nd Qtr and will get approval before the year end 2021. Double digit royalties for a drug that will do over 500 million in annual sales. UTHR will announce another drug using MNKD inhaler 1st half of 2021. MNKD will receive a upfront payment and new milestone payments on the new compound for UTHR. MNKD will enter one or two new agreements on future drugs compounds in 2021. Afrezzza sales will continue to grow. Shorts are looking at little to no dilution in the coming year.
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Post by ripano on Nov 23, 2020 12:10:46 GMT -5
I posted this yesterday on Stocktwits in a response to Nate. This is my opinion of current stock price.
I have been a shareholder in MNKD stock for several years. In my humble opinion there is NO HAND OFF CREW. It makes no sense to pay Margin borrowing costs and Not have covered the short position when this stock went to low $1 levels. If indeed it was to make a profit in a short position was the original plan then it would have been executed. I think BIG Pharma and other corporations instead wanted to hurt the credibility of this company. Needle makers, Insulin distributors, etc etc are all potential suspect entities who shorted this stock. I think the Gig is Up shortly on the short plan. Pun Intended Each day we get closer to Higher scripts, More Doctors accepting Afrezza as a way to control Diabetes. Blue Hale, Trep T, New drugs with technosphere application. ETC ETC. Many people respect your opinion including myself, so please consider the above opinion as having some merit. No Hand Off Crew. This is a much Bigger Trade than retail Shorting.
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Post by mytakeonit on Nov 23, 2020 12:40:43 GMT -5
falcon is such a cry baby because he only has 2 shares. He thought it was going down today ... which means. He is WRONG ... and not WONG. (my daughter is laughing at you)
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by boca1girl on Nov 23, 2020 12:42:30 GMT -5
Ok, so we continue to see a rate of increase in the share price that is quite out of character for Mannkind. Sure, they recently received the milestone payment from UTHR which should have been baked in. However, we are still facing the prospect of dilution coming up soon so what is driving this share price? Don't get me wrong I think it is great, I just wonder what is behind it. Without some plausible explanation I fear it may retreat at an even faster rate than the increase. So if we could leave aside any unrelated comments, I would like to see legitimate ideas on what has changed. Why now? If, as a group we can't put our finger on it then that says something as well. We, as a group are not insiders, we just make guesses. Just because we can’t “put our finger in it” means nothing. With COVID, the whole world is focusing on biotechnology. Most here agree that the stock is undervalued based on MNKD’s potential. Now, many more people may be also recognizing the potential. Personally, I am guessing that we will have another partnership announced before EOY.
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Post by goyocafe on Nov 23, 2020 12:45:37 GMT -5
Ok, so we continue to see a rate of increase in the share price that is quite out of character for Mannkind. Sure, they recently received the milestone payment from UTHR which should have been baked in. However, we are still facing the prospect of dilution coming up soon so what is driving this share price? Don't get me wrong I think it is great, I just wonder what is behind it. Without some plausible explanation I fear it may retreat at an even faster rate than the increase. So if we could leave aside any unrelated comments, I would like to see legitimate ideas on what has changed. Why now? If, as a group we can't put our finger on it then that says something as well. We, as a group are not insiders, we just make guesses. Just because we can’t “put our finger in it” means nothing. With COVID, the whole world is focusing on biotechnology. Most here agree that the stock is undervalued based on MNKD’s potential. Now, many more people may be also recognizing the potential. Personally, I am guessing that we will have another partnership announced before EOY. Doesn't Mannkind need a big cash infusion to pay off Midcap? Another deal with upfront cash would be ideal.
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Post by mannmade on Nov 23, 2020 13:17:24 GMT -5
My guess for what's is worth is that we all know the NDA for Trep T will be submitted sometime in first Q. This is finally a tangible step tha MNKD is heading towards, dare I say it...? Break even and profitablity... So even though they recieved all the milestone payments, the market is now able to look at forecasting a timeline to profitability and so I think that is being built in in advance... GLTAL's!!!
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Post by sayhey24 on Nov 23, 2020 13:18:19 GMT -5
Whats behind it??? Al Mann told me MNKD was bigger than MiniMed. I am still waiting. Have you forgotten the all time MNKD classic statement? Who knows maybe C19 will prove Matt right
"To some extent, we're suffering from an embarrassment of riches. There are so many things that could potentially benefit from this delivery technology. We want to make sure we pick the right ones and to be frank we are quite proud of the fact over the last couple of years that we made a promise or commitment, we've kept that promise and commitment and when we did it, when we said we're going to do it and we'd like to keep that up. So we want to make sure these plans are more fully baked before we roll them out to the investing public."
Matthew Pfeffer- 9/9/2014
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Post by peppy on Nov 23, 2020 13:25:50 GMT -5
Ok, so we continue to see a rate of increase in the share price that is quite out of character for Mannkind. Sure, they recently received the milestone payment from UTHR which should have been baked in. However, we are still facing the prospect of dilution coming up soon so what is driving this share price? Don't get me wrong I think it is great, I just wonder what is behind it. Without some plausible explanation I fear it may retreat at an even faster rate than the increase. So if we could leave aside any unrelated comments, I would like to see legitimate ideas on what has changed. Why now? If, as a group we can't put our finger on it then that says something as well. The way I look at it, I will find out later why MNKD share price is going up now. I am always the last to know. Couldn't be because there is a pandemic going on and we have a really good delivery system could it? (and MNKD is going to start making a profit with UTHR) I mean -95 degrees Fahrenheit and all.
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Post by LongMNKD on Nov 23, 2020 13:26:09 GMT -5
We, as a group are not insiders, we just make guesses. Just because we can’t “put our finger in it” means nothing. With COVID, the whole world is focusing on biotechnology. Most here agree that the stock is undervalued based on MNKD’s potential. Now, many more people may be also recognizing the potential. Personally, I am guessing that we will have another partnership announced before EOY. Doesn't Mannkind need a big cash infusion to pay off Midcap? Another deal with upfront cash would be ideal. More likely they could "strike while the iron is hot" and kill the rally didnt that happen last time around november/december?
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Post by dg1111 on Nov 23, 2020 13:32:24 GMT -5
It's significantly undervalued - maybe investors are realizing that as we get closer to Trep T approval and launch. To me, low end of fair value right now is $8 per share. It could retreat back down some, which would make it, wait for it, even more undervalued. Are you willing to share how you came up with the $8 value? I did a DCF valuation (I am not an expert with these) with ranges from 10-20% sales growth of Afrezza and $40-80 million in royalties for TreT starting in 2022, and growing 10% annually from there. My results were share prices between $5-10. I did not consider any other sources of income, as I wanted my estimate to be fairly conservative.
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Post by mcbone on Nov 23, 2020 13:39:44 GMT -5
Current share price of $3 and change still seems way undervalued to me in view of it really being only $0.61 if you factor in the reverse split.
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Post by morfu on Nov 23, 2020 13:40:38 GMT -5
It's significantly undervalued - maybe investors are realizing that as we get closer to Trep T approval and launch. To me, low end of fair value right now is $8 per share. It could retreat back down some, which would make it, wait for it, even more undervalued. >> It's significantly undervalued
This question and various answers keeps popping up.. what price tag can you put on hopes? So far there is no certainty that any of the various pathways will earn the shareholder significant money. You can argue the likelihood based on Trep T status or adult American Afrezza sales, but there is no guarantee, only hopes. How do you price them in?
Some say 3$, you say 8$ here.. Can someone give me a fair share price estimate based on the assumption that we will earn 5ct per share in 2023, 10ct in 2024 and 5ct more each year that follows? How do you do math that out? Assuming something like 40ct per share 10years from now and P/E of 100 gives us 40$ as share price then, shall we just guess 10% of that as a fair value and
say 4$ goal right now?
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Post by uvula on Nov 23, 2020 13:53:50 GMT -5
Posters lose all credibility when they still talk about pre-split stock price or mention the billions that Al spent. Neither are relevant to current valuation.
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