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Post by mnkdfann on Nov 23, 2020 20:58:43 GMT -5
Cash and cash equivalents of $52.4 million at September 30, 2020 +12.5M milestone payment +20-50M (numbers are my own guess) factory sale/leaseback -? payback of MidCap loan (how much does MNKD have borrowed? I put it at $50M, and the company is required to have $40M in reserve) in order to do the sale/leaseback. $10M burn every Quarter in 2020. Yes, they have really tightened the belt from when we were TV advertising Afrezza and burning ~9M/month Trep-T manufacturing revenue will precede royalties I don't see dilution happening outside of using the ATM Just to daydream a little, go to Yahoo! Finance and click on “Statistics” for PLUG. Yes, it’s fuel cell technology, but: - PLUG’s market cap has gone from $650 million to $10 billion in fourteen months. - Its still losing money so no P/E ratio - 400 million shares outstanding, with 17% short Yes, they have lots more cash and much bigger revenues, but it shows how fast a market cap can explode when the narrative changes. <<sigh>> I agree with everything you say about the narrative. And sentiment and momentum are powerful forces. Even so, I find it interesting that many long term PLUG investors are STILL majorly underwater. PLUG was over $1000 a share at one point. |
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Post by radgray68 on Nov 23, 2020 20:58:44 GMT -5
Somebody already said it in another post. Mannkind was priced for bankruptcy. Now, it has become apparent that we will not be going bankrupt. $3 Billion shareholders have invested so far to build this company/platform. 300 million outstanding shares, give or take on the ATM. That's a $10/share MINIMUM STARTING POINT for valuation. (didn't somebody, maybe Nate, say it's a steal under $10) Add in the value of the pipeline and growth multiples after that. All IMHO, of course Yeah, umm, that's not how valuation works AT ALL. HUH??? Did you miss the part where I said in was all in my humble opinion? I was attempting to share my personal bottom line for selling the stock today as well as an idea as to the recent price appreciation. Care to contribute something? You in love with DCF models? You go ahead and evaluate as you see fit. Bottom line, it's a $10 stock.......to me.  |
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Post by mango on Nov 23, 2020 20:59:39 GMT -5
Somebody already said it in another post. Mannkind was priced for bankruptcy. Now, it has become apparent that we will not be going bankrupt. $3 Billion shareholders have invested so far to build this company/platform. 300 million outstanding shares, give or take on the ATM. That's a $10/share MINIMUM STARTING POINT for valuation. (didn't somebody, maybe Nate, say it's a steal under $10) Add in the value of the pipeline and growth multiples after that. All IMHO, of course If we are talking about intrinsic value of the company then I’d say yeah, probably around that price. I prefer to go by the intrinsic value, the actually real value of a company. But, wellyouknowtherest |
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Post by awesomo on Nov 23, 2020 21:06:17 GMT -5
Yeah, umm, that's not how valuation works AT ALL. HUH??? Did you miss the part where I said in was all in my humble opinion? I was attempting to share my personal bottom line for selling the stock today as well as an idea as to the recent price appreciation. Care to contribute something? You in love with DCF models? You go ahead and evaluate as you see fit. Bottom line, it's a $10 stock.......to me. That's like saying "in my humble opinion, the sky is purple". Nobody valuates companies based on "sunk cost" investments for a reason. |
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Post by radgray68 on Nov 23, 2020 21:12:14 GMT -5
Company had a $4 Billion valuation on approval of Afrezza. Likely because it was the MO of Al Mann to sell his companies. That valuation disappeared when Sanofi....*&^%$#.....handed it back to us.
Now, with Afrezza patients showing "stickiness" and Tre-T basically re-validating the entire platform, I'm thinking $4 Billion is not out of the question.
Or, is that not how valuations are done AT ALL..Mehhhhhh LOL
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Post by radgray68 on Nov 23, 2020 21:14:06 GMT -5
HUH??? Did you miss the part where I said in was all in my humble opinion? I was attempting to share my personal bottom line for selling the stock today as well as an idea as to the recent price appreciation. Care to contribute something? You in love with DCF models? You go ahead and evaluate as you see fit. Bottom line, it's a $10 stock.......to me. That's like saying "in my humble opinion, the sky is purple". Nobody valuates companies based on "sunk cost" investments for a reason. But the sky isn't purple. And I did use "sunk cost." And, you don't offer anything different. I at least have historical Market Cap to back me up. What is your valuation? |
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Post by awesomo on Nov 23, 2020 21:17:08 GMT -5
It had a $4B valuation because at the time, it was thought to be a potential blockbuster drug that could reach a billion in sales. Blame whoever you want for it, but it has failed to even come close to that. So yes, the valuation changes.
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Post by letitride on Nov 23, 2020 22:10:47 GMT -5
Ok, so we continue to see a rate of increase in the share price that is quite out of character for Mannkind. Sure, they recently received the milestone payment from UTHR which should have been baked in. However, we are still facing the prospect of dilution coming up soon so what is driving this share price? Don't get me wrong I think it is great, I just wonder what is behind it. Without some plausible explanation I fear it may retreat at an even faster rate than the increase. So if we could leave aside any unrelated comments, I would like to see legitimate ideas on what has changed. Why now? If, as a group we can't put our finger on it then that says something as well. I can put my finger on it short interest has done there best to destroy this company for five years. They failed! All the derogatory talk on social media and else where is no longer of any effect because the ones throwing blocks at the walls they build are not retail investors and are not listening. When Barrons printed the article encouraging shorts and I thought it was great, you didnt understand why. Nate did. This is simply the swing of the pendulum, and way past due to true value. Lets Go! |
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 23, 2020 22:14:34 GMT -5
HUH??? Did you miss the part where I said in was all in my humble opinion? I was attempting to share my personal bottom line for selling the stock today as well as an idea as to the recent price appreciation. Care to contribute something? You in love with DCF models? You go ahead and evaluate as you see fit. Bottom line, it's a $10 stock.......to me. That's like saying "in my humble opinion, the sky is purple". Nobody valuates companies based on "sunk cost" investments for a reason. But wouldn’t it be nice if that’s how valuations worked. We’d all be rich! A purple sky would be cool too... |
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Post by LongMNKD on Nov 23, 2020 22:22:09 GMT -5
anyway.. momentum is building.
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Post by mytakeonit on Nov 23, 2020 23:08:55 GMT -5
falcon typed incorrectly because of the fiddle ... he meant "In my mind ... Nothing!"
But, that's mytakeonit
And I assume cretin boy will have something to say.
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Post by bones1026 on Nov 23, 2020 23:41:01 GMT -5
Been waiting over six years for Matt's comment to come true. I sure hope it does this time Whats behind it??? Al Mann told me MNKD was bigger than MiniMed. I am still waiting. Have you forgotten the all time MNKD classic statement? Who knows maybe C19 will prove Matt right "To some extent, we're suffering from an embarrassment of riches. There are so many things that could potentially benefit from this delivery technology. We want to make sure we pick the right ones and to be frank we are quite proud of the fact over the last couple of years that we made a promise or commitment, we've kept that promise and commitment and when we did it, when we said we're going to do it and we'd like to keep that up. So we want to make sure these plans are more fully baked before we roll them out to the investing public." Matthew Pfeffer- 9/9/2014 That was over 6 years ago? Wow...Was UTHR even in the picture back then? Wouldn’t think so.. |
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Post by goyocafe on Nov 23, 2020 23:54:52 GMT -5
mango “ MannKind is progressing with Dornase Alfa and Tobramycin formulation work, likely to complete preclinical work next year.” Is this confirmed? His newsletter indicated two “new” assets. I wouldn’t think he would use that term for items already noted in the pipeline. Could be wrong.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2020 0:54:53 GMT -5
mango “ MannKind is progressing with Dornase Alfa and Tobramycin formulation work, likely to complete preclinical work next year.” Is this confirmed? His newsletter indicated two “new” assets. I wouldn’t think he would use that term for items already noted in the pipeline. Could be wrong. This is an interesting TIDBIT...... Dornase Alfa is made by GENENTECH (A Roche Company) Tobramycin is made by MYLAN Both drugs are for Cystic Fibrosis!! I'm sure Mike will be having discussions with them soon and if they strike a deal with Mylan it could open the door for an EPINEPHRINE (EPIHALE) Deal. |
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Dartman
Newbie
Posts: 24 
Sentiment: Way Too Long
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Post by Dartman on Nov 24, 2020 1:02:45 GMT -5
I'm finally in the black!
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