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Post by peppy on Feb 22, 2023 9:59:06 GMT -5
Go to the 10-K page F-32 (Section 13). Tyvaso cost of sales for the year is 53.5. You then need to go to the Q3 10-Q, page 20 (Section 12) to see the 9 months cost of sales of 29.7. 53.5-29.7 = 23.8 I love you people. Thank you. |
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Post by Thundersnow on Feb 22, 2023 10:00:18 GMT -5
Tyvaso cost of sales reported by UT: Q3 17.0 Q4 23.8 I am going to assume Collaboration & Services is in that number. So we have $30M in Royalties and ~$21M in C&S for the Qtr? DAMN!!!! That's $51M w/o Afrezza nor V-GO. DAMN!!!! Earnings Whisper #'s: 4th Quarter December 2022 Consensus: ($0.06) Revenue: $36.18 MilDAMN!!!! Remember when Mike said Annual Royalties will match the Market Cap of the company? At that time it was ~$256M. With UTHR aiming for 2025 w/ $4 BILLION in Revenues and the BULK of it being Tyvaso DPI.......DAMN!!!! |
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Post by anderson on Feb 22, 2023 10:14:16 GMT -5
Think the cost of sales includes both Collaboration and Royalties. Could be wrong though.
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Post by cjm18 on Feb 22, 2023 10:14:17 GMT -5
Tyvaso cost of sales reported by UT: Q3 17.0 Q4 23.8 I am going to assume Collaboration & Services is in that number. So we have $30M in Royalties and ~$21M in C&S for the Qtr? DAMN!!!! That's $51M w/o Afrezza nor V-GO. DAMN!!!! Earnings Whisper #'s: 4th Quarter December 2022 Consensus: ($0.06) Revenue: $36.18 MilDAMN!!!! Remember when Mike said Annual Royalties will match the Market Cap of the company? At that time it was ~$256M. With UTHR aiming for 2025 w/ $4 BILLION in Revenues and the BULK of it being Tyvaso DPI.......DAMN!!!! How are you getting to 30m in royalties? |
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Post by ronw77077 on Feb 22, 2023 10:16:21 GMT -5
I believe the cost of sales reported by UT includes both the royalties and COS. For Q3 UT reported quarterly Tyvaso COS of 17.0 and MNKD reported Collaboration & Service revenue of 10.3 plus royalties of 6.2 for a total of 16.5.
Therefore it is likely that MNKD will report Q4 revenues from UT of about 23 plus Afrezza/V-go revenues around 20 for a total of 43, which compares to total MNKD Q# revenue of 32.8.
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Post by anderson on Feb 22, 2023 10:25:10 GMT -5
Martine also mentioned there were a lot of Tyvaso patients(700 in dec, 350 or so in currently) in Patient Assistance Program (PAP). Also some of those that switched from Tyvaso to Tyvaso DPI ended up in the PAP program. So I guess mnkd would get manufacturing for that but no royalties. So no break even yet. But hopefully MNKD still beats the forecast.
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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 22, 2023 10:32:23 GMT -5
Martine also mentioned there were a lot of Tyvaso patients(700 in dec, 350 or so in currently) in Patient Assistance Program (PAP). Also some of those that switched from Tyvaso to Tyvaso DPI ended up in the PAP program. So I guess mnkd would get manufacturing for that but no royalties. So no break even yet. But hopefully MNKD still beats the forecast. Why does MNKD not get royalties? |
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Post by anderson on Feb 22, 2023 10:33:39 GMT -5
PAP is UTHR's free drug program
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Post by Clement on Feb 22, 2023 10:38:50 GMT -5
I believe the cost of sales reported by UT includes both the royalties and COS. For Q3 UT reported quarterly Tyvaso COS of 17.0 and MNKD reported Collaboration & Service revenue of 10.3 plus royalties of 6.2 for a total of 16.5. Therefore it is likely that MNKD will report Q4 revenues from UT of about 23 plus Afrezza/V-go revenues around 20 for a total of 43, which compares to total MNKD Q# revenue of 32.8. Ron gives us the estimate of $43M net revenues for MNKD in Q4. That's 31% over Q3. And it's 21% over the average analysts' estimate. Ron, thanks for your sensible analysis. |
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Post by uvula on Feb 22, 2023 10:39:58 GMT -5
Even if uthr is giving it away free they still need to pay their suppliers, don't they?
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Post by Thundersnow on Feb 22, 2023 10:54:47 GMT -5
Think the cost of sales includes both Collaboration and Royalties. Could be wrong though. I don't think so bc Royalties drop to the bottom line and the C&S doesn't. |
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Post by celo on Feb 22, 2023 10:58:54 GMT -5
43 million in revenue.
Last quarter cost of revenue was about 43 million. Probably will go up 10% for this quarter, so 47 million. Debt payments were about 5 million last qtr probably be the same. Loss of 10 million is my guess. So a net loss of 3-4 cents/share.
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Feb 22, 2023 11:31:25 GMT -5
ronw77077 , thanks for the valuable information! I agree with the intent behind your posts. But there is one thing that doesn't add up to me: where are the costs of the Tyvaso nebulizer product / revenue stream, which still makes up the majority of the Tyvaso product sold? In Q3, I agree that Mannkind received $16.5M and UTHR showed $17M in Tyvaso cost of product sales, but that would imply the cost of Tyvaso nebulizer for the entire quarter is $500K. For context, the cost of product sales for Tyvaso in Q3 2021 - when UTHR only had the nebulizer - was $7.8M! Could the cost of product for Tyvaso nebulizer be lower one year later? Definitely. Could it have dropped from $7.8M to $500K for the quarter? Very hard to believe. Something just doesn't add up for me! Not your fault at all; everything you wrote makes sense on face-value - but the nebulizer cost in Q3 2021 is just too much for me to ignore. Below is the definition of Cost of Product Sales from UTHR. It seems to capture all costs of royalties and manufacturing - which should be for DPI royalties + manufacturing and nebulizer product manufacturing. I don't know how to make the math work - neither company tries to make it easy to figure out  Cost of Product Sales Our cost of product sales primarily includes costs to manufacture our products, royalty and milestone payments under license agreements granting us rights to sell related products, direct and indirect distribution costs incurred in the sale of our products, and the costs of inventory reserves for current and projected obsolescence. These costs also include share-based compensation and salary-related expenses for direct manufacturing and indirect support personnel, quality review and release for commercial distribution, direct materials and supplies, depreciation, facilities-related expenses, and other overhead costs.
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Post by uvula on Feb 22, 2023 11:39:53 GMT -5
Is the nebulizer a uthr product, or just a commodity type item that the patient buys on their own?
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Feb 22, 2023 11:42:55 GMT -5
I am referring to the cost of the Tyvaso nebulizer product - whether that is the nebulizer, medicine used in the nebulizer, or both. It is the thing that UTHR sells for that revenue stream. And the cost of product in Q3 2021 was $7.8M, meaning there is some cost there needed to bring in that revenue.
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