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Post by jkendra on Feb 22, 2023 12:00:28 GMT -5
Cost of Product Sales starting from Q4 2021:
Q4 32.8
Q1 26.6
Q2 27.1
Q3 37.1
Q4 55.9
General and Administrative starting from Q4 2021:
Q4 76
Q1 81.3
Q2 76.9
Q3 85.7
Q4 89.3
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Post by jkendra on Feb 22, 2023 12:24:46 GMT -5
Go to the 10-K page F-32 (Section 13). Tyvaso cost of sales for the year is 53.5. You then need to go to the Q3 10-Q, page 20 (Section 12) to see the 9 months cost of sales of 29.7. 53.5-29.7 = 23.8 Tyvaso cost of sales Q1 2022 (Pre DPI) is 6.2. Tyvaso cost of sales Q2 2022 is 6.5. Might be unrelated but it is funny that MannKind reported ~$300,000 royalty for Q2. |
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Post by solicurance on Feb 22, 2023 12:25:44 GMT -5
Now instead of going from Q4 to Q4, go from Q3 to Q4…
16.5m + 18.8 = 35.3M
The 16.5m is already added in to the 3rd quarter 2022
seems more accurate considering symphony was 61.45m alone and specialty scripts are the majority…
It would put our Royalty at 25m if collaboration stayed at 10.3… if the cost of sales change for Q3 to Q4 is completely Tyvaso DPI related
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Post by Clement on Feb 22, 2023 12:56:34 GMT -5
Estimate for Q4 2022 ($ in millions):
a) Afrezza 12.4
b) VGO 5.4
c) T-DPI royalties 9.7
d) Collaboration and services 15.5
Includes both T-DPI manufacturing and recognition of deferred revenue
e) Collaborations and services -- other, not manufacturing 0.4
Total net revenue 43.4
Explanations:
a) 110% of Q4 2021
b) same as last quarter
c) assume DPI is 40% of UTHR’s Tyvaso revs in Q4 2022. 40% of 242.3M. Then take 10% royalty.
d) (royalty Q4 / royalty Q3) times (Q3 collaborations and services for UTHR) = 9.7/6.2 x 9.9
e) same as last quarter
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Post by JEvans on Feb 22, 2023 14:09:14 GMT -5
Eitherway....The needle doesn't appear to be moving for either UTHR or MNKD for the exceptional sales numbers.
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Post by solicurance on Feb 22, 2023 14:27:00 GMT -5
What else did UTHR get into to have a 18.8 million dollar increase in cost of sales from the September to December… nothing, It’s royalty for Tyvaso DPI… now add the 6.2 million because that’s included in the 3rd quarter cost of sale for royalty payment last quarter. You get 25m…
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rebby
Researcher
Posts: 79
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Post by rebby on Feb 22, 2023 15:00:11 GMT -5
What else did UTHR get into to have a 18.8 million dollar increase in cost of sales from the September to December… nothing, It’s royalty for Tyvaso DPI… now add the 6.2 million because that’s included in the 3rd quarter cost of sale for royalty payment last quarter. You get 25m… More volume, building inventory to have a 1-yr supply? |
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Post by jkendra on Feb 22, 2023 15:01:31 GMT -5
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Post by celo on Feb 22, 2023 15:24:58 GMT -5
All the other United products had higher costs Q/Q. Remodulin went from 7.5 to 11.1 million. The other 3 products was about another million. So that is 4.6 million of the 18.8.
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Post by ronw77077 on Feb 22, 2023 15:31:56 GMT -5
Tarheel, you have posed a most vexing problem regarding the nebulizer cost not seemingly existing in the COS numbers. I thought I might find the answer in Deferred Assets timing but did not. I also considered whether the difference might be explained in a change of inventory; the total UT change in inventory between 9/30 and 12/31 for all of UT is (only) $11 mil., which could be affecting the numbers. The only other associated speculation I can come up with is that there is a difference in the timing of sales related data between UT and MNKD. For example, MNKD recognizes sales revenue when it ships DPI to UT and MNKD recognizes royalty revenue tied to UT's actual sales. UT, on the other hand, recognizes its cost associated with its product sales when its products sell, not tied to when MNKD recognizes it sales revenue (i.e., when MKND ships to UT). I don't feel we have access to enough detailed financial information to unravel this. We may gain some more insights when we see MNKD's 12/31 numbers tomorrow.
Thanks for the homework.
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Post by solicurance on Feb 22, 2023 15:40:00 GMT -5
8-k under where I’m looking (page 2)
Cost of sales, excluding share-based compensation. The increase in cost of sales for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2022, as compared to the same periods in 2021, was primarily due to an increase in royalty expense and product costs for Tyvaso DPI following the commercial launch of the product in June 2022.
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Post by harryx1 on Feb 22, 2023 16:17:45 GMT -5
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Feb 22, 2023 16:19:32 GMT -5
Thank you Ron for showing us where to look and doing all of that work! I think it has to be a difference in the timing of sales data between UT and MNKD. So tomorrow's MNKD earnings could still surprise to the upside. (That's why I brought it up - I need data-driven reasons to be optimistic haha!).
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Post by ktim on Feb 22, 2023 16:23:19 GMT -5
Last Feb Q4 report was the following... Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2021 Total revenues were $75.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2021 This Feb Q4 report will read something like... Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2022 Total revenues were ~$135 million for the year ended December 31, 2022 WS should be able to run full year guidance for 2023 after the last full quarter of all revenues. Feb Q4 2024 will be a banger! If only management could give guidance. Holy cow, that would be something. |
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Post by hellodolly on Feb 22, 2023 16:31:37 GMT -5
I had a projected Q4 of $36M to get us to $100M for the year. I see smarter people have $32M for Q4 which will get us to $96M for the year. Analysts project $99.4 which would be a miss with the lower number.
Anyone have the YoY revenue growth %?
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