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Post by letitride on Jan 7, 2023 1:49:54 GMT -5
As I read everyone's calculations a prognostications I must throw in my own. I use the KISS formula AKA Keep it simple stupid. Its going to be huge!
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Post by ronw77077 on Jan 10, 2023 17:09:13 GMT -5
There are several interesting takeaways from yesterday’s UT presentation worth assessing and using for our future revenue estimations. You’re going to love this unless you find some major faults in the analysis!
Martine restated their goal of growing from 12,000 PAH users today to 25,000 patients by 2025. She stated that they had reached 6,000 Tyvaso users by the end of 2022. She reiterated that they ended the quarter with a 50/50 split between Tyvaso (Nebulizer) and DPI users. Therefore, the other 6,000 must be patients using their other products.
UT indicated that most of the DPI sales in Q4 were from newer ILD users and that they expected the significant shift of Tyvaso users who want to switch to DPI to do so in the next 6-9 months, with the remainder of those who want to switch doing so by year end 2023.
UT maintains a two-year supply of its drug products. Therefore, they will be buying inventory ahead of sales.
There will be no revenue from new products such as Ralinepag or from IPF (Fibrosis) before 2026. Therefore, all growth prior to then will come from the current product line. Let’s now look at the product line revenues reported in the UT 10-Q at 9/30/22 (data in $ millions):
Net Product Sales 3 mos. Ended Sept. 30 2022
Tyvaso Remodulin Orenitram Unituxin Adcirca Total
258 114 87 46 11 516
Net Product Sales 3 mos. Ended Sept. 30 2021
Tyvaso Remodulin Orenitram Unituxin Adcirca Total
164 125 85 55 15 445
Net Product Sales 9 mos. Ended Sept. 30 2022
Tyvaso Remodulin Orenitram Unituxin Adcirca Total
631 378 249 146 31 1439
Net Product Sales 9 mos. Ended Sept. 30 2021
Tyvaso Remodulin Orenitram Unituxin Adcirca Total
441 395 234 152 48 1270
The only product line growing is users of Tyvaso and that growth is from DPI. Therefore, the great majority of new 13,000 PAH customers will be using DPI.
If our consensus speculation is correct that MNKD Q4 revenue will be around $60 million (including roughly $45 million in royalties and cost + markup from UT), what can we project for 2023 and 2024?
Let’s assume customers double each year (i.e., 6,000 to 12,000 and 12,000 to 24,000).
$45 million X 4 quarters X 200% = $360 mil + $20 mil/qtr from Afrezza/V-go = $440 million
Double this for 2024!
We’re going to need a bigger boat.
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Post by celo on Jan 10, 2023 19:29:27 GMT -5
300 Maillion total Tyvaso sales for United 4Q. Tyvaso DPI is half at 150 million. 12.5% royalty is 18.75. Cost plus is probably 15-20 million so 35 to 40 million for q4.
Not all the patients will be on DPI at the beginning of 2025 but probably a large majority. I like where your head is at.
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Post by phdedieu12 on Jan 10, 2023 21:56:13 GMT -5
We should also note that it is likely that UT is building inventory as well and that the Tyvaso sales do not reflect ALL products purchased for stock as opposed to product purchase to fill scripts. I assume that's the case, and also assume that once UT has adequate inventory levels, scripts numbers will reflect more accurately total sales
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Post by hellodolly on Jan 27, 2023 20:15:01 GMT -5
Much of the information was taken from the 3Q 10K for past revenue and projections for an earnings forecast, with an emphasis on being conservative:
For the exercise, lets parse out the projected 2022 story, coming up as the potential figures in February.
As of the 3Q report in November 2022, total revenue "all sources" was $64M (the total revenue for all of 2021 was $64M).
Add in projected Q4 revenue from the following "all sources":
Q4 Afrezza/V-Go ~$17M, (Q3 $16.2M) +9%
Q4 Tyvaso ~$7.5M Royalties, (Q3 $6.2M) +8%
Q4 Collaboration and Services Revenue ~$12M (Q3 $10.3M) +8%
Q4 Total revenue of ~$36M. +9% QoQ
Total projected 2022 revenue is $64M (Q1, Q2, Q3)+ $36M (Q4) = $100M 2022 total projected revenue.
I expect this to be higher as the TYvaso sales really are higher than what I used. This is based on Q3 earnings which was not a full Tyvaso revenue/sales report.
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Post by nxc2 on Jan 27, 2023 22:30:26 GMT -5
My projections for 4Q ($M) - extrapolated from 4Q symphony numbers and 3Q earnings, applying ratios. Tyvaso DPI star of the show!
Net Revenue Afrezza - 12
Net Revenue V-Go - 6
Collab/Svc Revenue - 30
Royalties - 18
Total - 66
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Post by hellodolly on Jan 28, 2023 14:04:18 GMT -5
My projections for 4Q ($M) - extrapolated from 4Q symphony numbers and 3Q earnings, applying ratios. Tyvaso DPI star of the show! Net Revenue Afrezza - 12 Net Revenue V-Go - 6 Collab/Svc Revenue - 30 Royalties - 18 Total - 66 OK, so ~$100M on the low end and ~$130M on the high end. |
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Post by bthomas55ep on Jan 29, 2023 6:15:31 GMT -5
My projections for 4Q ($M) - extrapolated from 4Q symphony numbers and 3Q earnings, applying ratios. Tyvaso DPI star of the show! Net Revenue Afrezza - 12 Net Revenue V-Go - 6 Collab/Svc Revenue - 30 Royalties - 18 Total - 66 OK, so ~$100M on the low end and ~$130M on the high end. Yes for 2022. The more important figure for analyst consideration is the projected run rate/growth. In these forecasts/guesses, $36 Million projects at $154M run rate for 2023. $66M projects a run rate of $264M for 2023. I am hoping to see $50M+ for the 4Q. That would continue to put the company on a great trajectory ($200M run rate for 2023). Share Price and market valuation are driven by the growth rate. Currently, at over $5+ a share, Mannkind's market cap is pushing toward $1.4 Billion. If markets can see a run rate beginning to push towards $300M, $400M, $500M, that will drive the share price. $100M a quarter gets you to a $400M annualized run rate. Wondering if by 4Q 2023 that can be achieved? Certainly if this quarter is closing in on $60M,a $100M dollar quarter by 4Q 2023 isn't too far fetched at the rate of growth we are seeing. I'm guessing the valuations won't get too far out in front of itself given the company track record, but when that $100M quarter does come (with a sales growth trend of double digit % revenue growth), I would have to think the share price could push $8 to $10 ($2B to $2.5B market valuation). Would be nice if United would take a 10% stake at $2.5B ($10) to begin to recognize the future potential. Could be a win/win for both I believe. |
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Post by hellodolly on Feb 9, 2023 15:48:11 GMT -5
I just took a look at the top and bottom line forecast for the year ending 2022 on SA. They project, or list the revenue to increase from $75.44M in 2021 to $99.59M in 2022, and I have an EPS of -.38. They have -.32?
I'm going to reiterate my projections again since we are getting closer to the EC:
Q4 Afrezza/V-Go ~$17M, (Q3 $16.2M) +9%
Q4 Tyvaso ~$7.5M Royalties, (Q3 $6.2M) +8%
Q4 Collaboration and Services Revenue ~$12M (Q3 $10.3M) +8%
Q4 Total revenue of ~$36M. +9% QoQ
Total projected 2022 revenue is $64M (Q1, Q2, Q3)+ $36M (Q4) = $100M 2022 total projected revenue.
As I stated before, I expect this to be higher as the Tyvaso sales really are higher than what I used in this model. So, we beat on the top and miss on the bottom? Anyone else?
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 11, 2023 2:05:01 GMT -5
If I understood your numbers, and trying to guess the loss doing math in my head, the -32 on SA would represent about an $85M loss for the year (assuming about 250M shares outstanding). That means UTHR needs to double their sales and “collaboration and services revenue” benefit to Mannkind, for MNKD to break even. Anything above that is gravy. i.e., profitable. I’m not good at estimating sales growth math in my head, but Neil could probably tell us when 2x UTHR contributions will happen. My gut says this year.
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Post by celo on Feb 22, 2023 8:48:41 GMT -5
Mannkind's 4Q Tyvaso DPI revenue based on United's 4Q cost of sales will be 35.5 million
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Post by ronw77077 on Feb 22, 2023 8:55:40 GMT -5
Tyvaso cost of sales reported by UT:
Q3 17.0
Q4 23.8
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Post by cjm18 on Feb 22, 2023 9:02:04 GMT -5
11.7m royalties?
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Post by celo on Feb 22, 2023 9:31:23 GMT -5
Tyvaso cost of sales reported by UT: Q3 17.0 Q4 23.8 Where did you find individual united's drugs cost of sales? I can only find that it grew from 58.8 from 34.6. |
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Post by ronw77077 on Feb 22, 2023 9:56:27 GMT -5
Go to the 10-K page F-32 (Section 13). Tyvaso cost of sales for the year is 53.5. You then need to go to the Q3 10-Q, page 20 (Section 12) to see the 9 months cost of sales of 29.7. 53.5-29.7 = 23.8
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