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Post by kc on Jan 12, 2015 14:43:47 GMT -5
JP MORGAN analyst are down on Sanofi. They list company as a Under Weight performer. There was a section on European pharmaceuticals in their presentation www.jpmorgan.com/cm/BlobServer/2015-healthcare-35.pdf?blobkey=id&blobwhere=1320662164390&blobheader=application/pdf&blobheadername1=Cache-Control&blobheadervalue1=private&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobsThat reviewed went over all the European based companies. This view is on the Global view of Sanofi and not Sanofi US. They really don’t think that Sanofi is heading in the right direction. I took some shots of the Analyst comments and hope that if you want more information you can go to the link above and find it. The good view is that they are very skeptical of Sanofi’s ability to get approval for the Lantus successor product insulin Toujeo. The screen shots didn’t have much on Afrezza. The good news in my view is that without Toujeo being approved that Sanofi is very dependent on a great launch for Afrezza and can’t afford to botch it up. That being said Lantus amounts to about 22% of their market and Afrezza is showing to have a potential of 1.4% of Sanofi in the future. Perhaps JP Morgan’s Analyst can’t see the potential of Afrezza or the ability of Sanofi to launch it properly. I guess only time will tell us the story. JP Morgan does feel like Sanofi will be aggressively in the M & A field and that is very hopeful for us MannKind longs. I can see that we really don’t know much more than one company’s view on JP Morgan. But they seem to look at Sanofi as a company that is poorly executing their strategy. Let’s hope that Sanofi gets it right on Afrezza’s launch. Attachment DeletedAttachment Deleted |
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Post by kc on Jan 12, 2015 14:50:37 GMT -5
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Post by kc on Jan 12, 2015 14:52:31 GMT -5
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Post by in search of the truth on Jan 12, 2015 14:53:24 GMT -5
Here is what I posted in a differnt thread prior to Adam F's hit piece. I am in it to win it and will keep my shares and options until Afrezza reaches its potential or the options expire worthless, ...but I have to admit that it is very discouraging that Mannkind can't get SNY to wave a cheerleading flag for this product. Are they not even talking to one another? Are they partners? The slide is old (nothing new in months) and no mention was made of any new information about the launch. No mention of the kinetics of the drug to mimic the pancreas. I was disappointed..... I had listened to the one for Piper Jaffray back in November and the slides seemed identical. he spoke incessantly about the products that they developed and evened mentioned that they plan on launching Tourjeo in Q1 (it was either Q1 or 1H), but did not provide any guidance on the launch of Afrezza, even to reaffirm a Q1 launch. It was if he just reused the same November slide deck..... and went through the motions to deliver the same "old" information. Nice of him to mention that Al Mann was in the audience, but Al was probably there to see if he could get him to provide a little more guidance on Afrezza - why would he not? Mentioning Exhubra is news that is several years old and didn't add anything to the presentation. I just don't underestand why, if they want Afrezza to be a blockbuster, would they not want to shout it to the rooftops and compare it to the invention of the wheel or sliced bread? Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/1580/sanofi-afrezza-fact-sheet#ixzz3OddvGguD |
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 12, 2015 15:07:37 GMT -5
Didn't like the summary graphic at the beginning of the presentation.
Afrezza was on the second row of the lift off pads and looks to be a smaller rocket than the rest.
Maybe I am become somewhat cynical...
OOG |
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Post by kc on Jan 12, 2015 15:13:06 GMT -5
They have pinned their future on TOUJEO which does not have approval yet. So they can't be pushing that during the next 3-12 months. What else will the push for Diabetes to hold onto their Lantus market? I hope its Afrezza. Seems to me they are praying for MannKind's product to be a hit and they are not showing any cards + or - until they get a feel for its potential. They don't want to be laughed at by their marketplace and hear the told you so voices that are saying Afrezza is Exubra round 2.
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Post by kc on Jan 12, 2015 15:56:03 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2015 17:55:32 GMT -5
$99 mil in revs is their estimate. Ok
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Post by kc on Jan 12, 2015 18:23:30 GMT -5
Not a lot of revenue considering what Sanofi has paid out so far. I think Gordon and Vosser are focusing on the Europeon Pharma's and have not done diligence into Afrezza or perhaps again it's the FOG from the Exhubra bong that has lingered around MannKind with the analyst crowd.
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Post by shortslaver on Jan 12, 2015 18:37:52 GMT -5
$99 mil in revs is their estimate. Ok You have to love it! That's a very small user base of less than 40k users. If it does OK it will easily beat this estimate. And then the bull runs. |
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Post by cretin11 on Jan 12, 2015 18:46:07 GMT -5
Interesting that Technosphere isn't even mentioned as an "upside risk" at the end there. |
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Post by spiro on Jan 12, 2015 18:53:59 GMT -5
One thing is obvious here, the J.P. Morgan analyst is clueless, but the analysis was entertaining. So this guy obviously thinks that SNY was incompetent to partner with Afrezza and pay MNKD hundreds of millions to do so. LOL Ok, so if you believe this J.P. Morgan guy is smarter than the folks at Vanguard, Fidelity and Blackrock etc. then I suggest you get out of MNKD immediately.
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Post by coco on Jan 12, 2015 19:46:27 GMT -5
Low ball expectations are good because when it exceeds everyone's expectations that's when the ball will really start rolling. I feel Sanofi knows what they are doing. If they set too high a goal and they don't meet it, then analysis will not be favorable. But if they low ball it and we exceed expectations then life is good. This whole situation happened with arna. They set their expectations too high and when they did not meet their goal, the stock price went down. So I'm ok with them keeping a low profile. Good things to come. Coco  |
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 13, 2015 1:35:25 GMT -5
Yes, underpromise and overdeliver, like Ohio State did tonight! Good analogy with ARNA, Coco!
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Post by in search of the truth on Jan 13, 2015 14:11:57 GMT -5
Thanks Coco! I have been racking my brains trying to figure put why both Mannkinbd and Sanofi seems to be so disfunctional when it comes to marketing Afrezza and you may have just nailed the reason. Let the financial analsyts set low sales expectations, like 99 Million dollars in reveniue for 2015 and then blow it out of the water..... I don't expect a launch until February at the earliest based on the LA time article................ So we do what we ahve always done and just wait for it..............
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