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Post by petech on Apr 21, 2015 9:13:17 GMT -5
Then we'll agree to disagree. Vivus is a different story and has nothing to do with MNKD. Combining two generics and then trying to get doctors to prescribe your high-priced combo, when they can just prescribe the generics is a flat dumb idea; but to each their own. I am not concerned with sales until they start the push (DTC). Right now, they're working on the pull...endos/PCPs etc. Only a fool steers a herd to a gate that the gate-keeper isn't ready/willing to open. But we do have people on Afrezza...and their results speak for themselves. So if you were a gatekeeper, what would you want? You'd want to see real-world experience with this for sure. That's what is happening. That makes the education much more palpable. So once they think Endos are ready, and production is up and running, we'll start seeing sales that can/do matter. I'll reevaluate my theory on this company then. In the meantime, I knew what I was getting into when I invested in this company and have been prepared for this since day 1. The flood of cry-baby posts that I am seeing isn't going to change my opinion; I bought this based on the science; I hold this because the science has been proven and I believe in the partner/sales strategy (even if I am not privy to the nitty-gritty); and I will sell this for a hell of a lot more than the market is offering today. Yes, the shorts aren't going away. But they're just wrong. And I am not going away either. In fact, every month that goes by, these shorts send me a nice check that lets me get "free" MNKD shares (thank you, Fidelity). So I am more than happy to have them around.
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Post by ezrasfund on Apr 21, 2015 9:24:26 GMT -5
I think small retail investors sometimes forget that the big guys play by different rules, and we small fry do have one advantage. We can start or exit a position without effecting the share price. The problem for the short position is that there simply are not 90 million shares to be bought back at any price, IMO. They have to wait for truly bad news and total capitulation or some very serious dilution. The volume numbers you see are just churn. BTW shares available to borrow went up to 300,000 yesterday, but have now all disappeared.
I also like the Jan '17 $3 calls.
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Post by cybergym66 on Apr 21, 2015 10:42:06 GMT -5
I think small retail investors sometimes forget that the big guys play by different rules, and we small fry do have one advantage. We can start or exit a position without effecting the share price. The problem for the short position is that there simply are not 90 million shares to be bought back at any price, IMO. They have to wait for truly bad news and total capitulation or some very serious dilution. The volume numbers you see are just churn. BTW shares available to borrow went up to 300,000 yesterday, but have now all disappeared. I also like the Jan '17 $3 calls. We know GS just crushed the stock price (downgrade to $3) using just a few weeks of RX numbers for justification. But they're the 600 lb gorilla so they can control the SP. Someone mentioned a few week ago that this is GS MO...crush a stock, (probably buy on the cheap), the Stock Price hits the projection then GS makes a glowing recommendation and the stock takes off. So if this were the case for MNKD, we are still in for some serious pain, but it also allow the shorts to escape and turn them into bulls. Right now the overhang is the $100M note and the 95+M SI. All this might not be resolved until early Fall. Wildcards are the SNY CC - Significantly higher RX numbers than reported (wishful thinking), MNKD CC - Technosphere partnership (maybe), Lines 2-3 FDA Approval (possible), 12U Afrezza (maybe). Throw in EU submission and any other "wishing well" hopes and the Stock Price might not get to $3. We're now on a price range that we'll kick ourselves for not buying at a year from now.
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Post by thsloppy on Apr 21, 2015 10:50:13 GMT -5
Petech..I agree with you in the respect MNKD is different and is why I'm still here long. As dumb as the concept may appear, VVUS was being hyped to the moon by many of the same institutional investors as the first big player in obesity which is a huge market opportunity. My point is that sales and scripts do matter and VVUS found that out along with many others. I'm just happy I realized the sales trend and got out with a few dollars profit. The road is littered with the skeletons of promising opportunities...I think each investor, including myself, needs to set the timeline and performance expectations required to invest. The one thing I fear most is great drug, bad investment.
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Post by kball on Apr 21, 2015 10:51:03 GMT -5
This period, while a bit painful and uncertain, seems less painful and uncertain than the market in general back in the 2nd half of '08 and 1st half of '09.
Ask yourself what you did back then and how that turned out? Would you do things different? looking back these past 5-6 years knowing what you know now?
Uncertainty remains a patient investors best friend. Well, that and money to act
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Post by yossarian on Apr 21, 2015 10:51:22 GMT -5
MNKD is not going to do anything but move with the whim of rumor, innuendo, and analyst comments until there is some news to make it move. If you think AFREZZA sales are going to soar, you ought to buy. If you think AFREZZA is a niche drug, you should get out. If you want to get rich quick, good enough, but do not bitch about how shorts, Goldman Sachs, or something else is manipulating the stock. Quick by definition in this context means you want to profit off of someone manipulating the stock. If the manipulators are successful and you bet with them congrats. If you didn;'t, that's the way the cookie crumbles. Ultimately earnings and sales are what will drive the stock price. What those are going to be should become clear by year end.
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Post by als57 on Apr 21, 2015 12:22:26 GMT -5
On good authority, the 12unit cartridge is the sole responsibility, of Sanofi Sanofi may divulge to Mannkind but only under terms of confidentiality. Production line two and three will be operational mid way thru quarter. Sanofi's slow rollout is what has caused analysts to readjust their estimates downward. For retail investors that were anticipating recouping their investment in less than three years - other than a buyout, are in for a rough ride, myself included! That is what turned RBC markets from $16/pps to $10/pps, or less. I know that management gifted options sales are committed ahead of time, but during negotiations with Sanofi, did they know Sanofi's intent to "slow rollout?"
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Post by petech on Apr 21, 2015 12:41:39 GMT -5
Gotcha. We're saying the same thing then. I don't care about low script counts until I see the "pull" start (DTC). Others may be different and are basing their decisions on current reports (certainly Goldman thought this was a good idea) and extrapolating.
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Post by mnholdem on Apr 21, 2015 12:46:24 GMT -5
This period, while a bit painful and uncertain, seems less painful and uncertain than the market in general back in the 2nd half of '08 and 1st half of '09. Ask yourself what you did back then and how that turned out? Would you do things different? looking back these past 5-6 years knowing what you know now? Uncertainty remains a patient investors best friend. Well, that and money to act You would think that the uncertainty that Afrezza may fail in the marketplace has been largely removed, and yet FAILURE is what appears to be the shorts' thesis and it's gaining traction in that camp with an increase in short interest.
MNKD certainly has become the ultimate battlefield stock, with both sides firmly entrenched in their positions and willing to "fight to the death" based on the strength of their convictions.
The frustration for many longs is that MannKind and Sanofi aren't providing ammunition for the battle, and appear to be wholly unconcerned that shorts are winning the battle to drive down share price.
As one long posted about a month ago, "This is like riding a Shetland pony into battle."
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Post by robsacher on Apr 21, 2015 14:23:09 GMT -5
Benh,
It is not a typo. Their A1C numbers are in the normal range, no longer even pre diabetic.
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Post by BlueCat on Apr 21, 2015 14:37:04 GMT -5
Call it a slow launch if you want to, but early scripts are poor. I would debate use of word "poor". With which apple-to-apple comparison with another drug? Or what initial release projection by SNY or MNKD? I suggest it may only be poor using a false expectation set by the short interest, so that they could say "poor" and base downgrades on it. At worst, you could say script reporting (as best we understand or have visibility) is low.
BTW Holdem - I"m still waiting instead for those STEPPE ponies to save the day ....
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Post by dstevenson on Apr 21, 2015 14:37:39 GMT -5
Fidelity raised the interest rate for shorts to 30.5% today I believe that seems to be good news. I did post on another thread that a large number of my sold puts (at $5) just came into the money. They were intially sold to help pay for call positions for January that I was sure we would meet last year. Now, I may indeed own more. LOL... I'm not worried and will hold onto these new shares until they pay off, MNKD is sold to SNY or we bankrupt. Call me a crazy optimist. Not that I'm not hurting with everyone else, but I still believe. This is not good news, that means more people are wanting to short the stock and they need more shares.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Apr 21, 2015 14:47:39 GMT -5
And there are none avail at 28%, sounds to me like they are getting harder to come by, but then I have thought that since the short count was half of what it is now.
Wonder how many of these short shares have gone out the revolving door to buyers that then lend them out the revolving door again, with the interest generated used to by more shares that also go out the door and so on, and so on,...
Sounds to me like the rope is getting so long, that its not going to just break their necks, it going to rip their heads right off.
OOG
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Post by petech on Apr 21, 2015 14:48:53 GMT -5
It's great news. It means that the people borrowing shares are paying more for them...and for those of us lending to them...we're going to be getting more for them.
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Post by dstevenson on Apr 21, 2015 15:04:51 GMT -5
Again you're missing the point. You don't want your stock shorted for that many shares. They'll be 30% on an annual basis, just from the high this year we are down over 30 percent bro
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