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Post by petech on Apr 20, 2015 11:12:51 GMT -5
"You want to be greedy when others are fearful. You want to be fearful when others are greedy. It's that simple." What's changed other than the stock price between today and mid-February when we were much higher? Sales not being in the thousands per week when we knew this was going to be a soft launch? Filtering out all the noise; does the drug work and if you were in the target market, how likely would you be to use it? Answer those two questions and everything else is a waste of time. Does the drug work? Beyond the shadow of a doubt. Would you switch? Read the evidence of people on it using social media, etc. Feeling "diabetic free" and having control of their lives...you think they're going back to crap....shoot insulin;and injected crap(shoot) insulin at that? There is no doubt what we've got here. Now the path between game-changer and sales is paved by Sanofi. So do you believe Sanofi is getting this launch right by getting word out to opinion leaders / doctors first...then going DTC? Or do you believe Sanofi become our partner to sandbag/kill Mannkind? I grant the latter would be easier (always easier to destroy than build)...but first, Sanofi would severely impact their ability to partner with other small biotechs in the future with this kind of a history....and they've partnered before and never done the sandbag/kill thing. Second, Mannkind would be able to terminate the partnership and find another suitor (although I grant you the transition would suck). I think Sanofi/Mannkind are striving toward the same goal...and I think that once we start seeing a full launch, you can/should look at sales numbers. Until then, it'll be bumpy...but always ask yourselves the questions above. Great time to buy calls / sell puts if you believe in this.
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Post by dstevenson on Apr 20, 2015 11:37:17 GMT -5
It's about shareholder confidence for the current and new shareholders. With the silence by management, there isn't too much going on with building confidence.
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Post by petech on Apr 20, 2015 12:32:50 GMT -5
They have gone far enough to work the legal channels to be able to redact material agreements because the competition is so fierce in this industry. It isn't reasonable for shareholders to expect specifics on the launch plans. The best you will get will be over-arching statements. The "we can't give samples out quickly enough" is the best type of info you will get.
On the technosphere front they are likely working with partners to move their API to technosphere...but won't reveal anything about that till it's official. They may not be/it may take longer than expected. Recall how long we've had the "we're going to partner to sell Afrezza" carrot dangled in front of us. I know they're also working their own technosphere combos; and I'm sure we'll hear more about that...but I'm not focusing on that quite as much. Afrezza is the 800 pound gorilla here initially.
So draw your own conclusions. Do you think the sales rate we've seen is about what we can expect? Or do you think it starts getting much higher/quicker?
Here's all you need to know about management: Have they even hinted that launch isn't going as planned / any disagreement with Sanofi? Has Al sold a share?
If you don't have confidence in your own research/convictions...don't be in a stock that isn't widely followed and therefore subject to manipulation.
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Post by robsacher on Apr 20, 2015 12:46:51 GMT -5
dstevenson,
Buy a few shares today if you feel like bugging out. It will make you feel a whole lot better knowing what a great price you just got.
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Post by BlueCat on Apr 20, 2015 13:52:33 GMT -5
With any crime, there has to be a motivation. SNY just doesn't have one to sand bag this.
- They have nothing to lose if Afrezza succeeds (no incentive - no competing product) - They have everything to gain (no competing product, and their competitors don't have one either.)
(Yes, I know. Afrezza will tap into their Lantus/Toujeo possibly. But so do their competitors and cheaper upcoming generics. Also see point #2)
Yep - just like the long vs. short thesis - So, so much more on the upside here than the downside. SNY makes this a global blockbuster with 65% profit from it and no direct competitors and MNKD with long-term patent?
Just comes down to execution. Though I consistently lament how sloooow this is moving, I think they are doing it right. Would just like to see accelerator pedal for everyone. And I imagine MNKD sells them Afrezza at some point. Why not?
As a side note, I think Technosphere deals getting announced after Afrezza shows commercial success will be far more impactful to price. This may be why it seems to be taking so long. While its been medical/technically proven with FDA and patients now - it has yet to be commercially proven as a platform. Once it has, the price tag for TS partnerships will also go way up.
This could be the Stock Singularity we're waiting on .... If so, I'm hopeful my wait won't be long. If they are waiting on Afrezza commercial success as proof, but already talking about TS deals, they must believe its coming (relatively) soon...
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Post by coco on Apr 20, 2015 14:20:09 GMT -5
We need to wait for the A1C results of our early adopters. Once that comes out and is public knowledge, how can doctors not write scripts?
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Post by lynn on Apr 20, 2015 14:35:54 GMT -5
I think the interview with Hakan & Sam will perk us all up as well . Unfortunately, it can't come soon enough ./
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Post by benh on Apr 20, 2015 15:03:40 GMT -5
Sam posted today. 'Non-diabetic' results. Rather than 'pre-diabetic' results. If it's not a typo, that's huge.
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Post by Chris-C on Apr 20, 2015 18:52:15 GMT -5
It is also possible that some news leaked out about something good about to happen/be announced. That would motivate a short attack... Of course, all of this is pure speculation. My hunch is that the two new production lines are about to become operational- and this added capacity (along with a 12u cartridge) may be the milestone that triggers a second stage in the sales plan.
Chris C
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Post by suebeeee1 on Apr 20, 2015 20:29:30 GMT -5
I did post on another thread that a large number of my sold puts (at $5) just came into the money. They were intially sold to help pay for call positions for January that I was sure we would meet last year. Now, I may indeed own more. LOL... I'm not worried and will hold onto these new shares until they pay off, MNKD is sold to SNY or we bankrupt. Call me a crazy optimist. Not that I'm not hurting with everyone else, but I still believe.
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Post by kc on Apr 20, 2015 22:37:00 GMT -5
Fidelity raised the interest rate for shorts to 30.5% today I believe that seems to be good news. I did post on another thread that a large number of my sold puts (at $5) just came into the money. They were intially sold to help pay for call positions for January that I was sure we would meet last year. Now, I may indeed own more. LOL... I'm not worried and will hold onto these new shares until they pay off, MNKD is sold to SNY or we bankrupt. Call me a crazy optimist. Not that I'm not hurting with everyone else, but I still believe.
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Apr 21, 2015 1:05:23 GMT -5
It is also possible that some news leaked out about something good about to happen/be announced. That would motivate a short attack... Of course, all of this is pure speculation. My hunch is that the two new production lines are about to become operational- and this added capacity (along with a 12u cartridge) may be the milestone that triggers a second stage in the sales plan. Chris C Chris, I would love it if you were right. I was pondering about the exact same thing today because shorts have to know they are running out of time, hence the relentless attack to the sp. However, I am not sure we have seen the end of the decline yet. I wrote to Matt, a few days ago to ask him about lines 2 and 3. I was curious to see if MNKD was having/expecting any kind of trouble with the FDA approval. He said, once again, that he could not give me a specific date but that he was expecting no trouble with the FDA and that the lines would be producing this quarter. Of course we still have most of the quarter ahead of us, but somehow I would not be surprised if they are trying to get that done before the shareholders meeting, where they might be able to use it to calm the nerves of a lot of upset people. Will see.
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Post by parrerob on Apr 21, 2015 5:43:53 GMT -5
Hi Chris and Evening...
I had the same feeling but then corrected immediately. If some news leaked out, why short more ? better to start covering a little... Leaks are the same for big buyers and shorting when leaks are out is not a good idea. At least it cannot be for sure the explanation of THIS short attack (IMO).
I think they are trying really to go towards 3 (will not in my opinion) but their game can be to push some retalers and may be some big players (?) to exit now thinking to buy again in low 4 or high 3.
No cost for them if there are no big buyers in the middle (as it was october and february for example). They sell shares to them self hedging their portfolio and lowering the PPS and accumulating shares from afraid retailers....
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Post by cybergym66 on Apr 21, 2015 6:46:02 GMT -5
Afrezza RX numbers have been OK at best. You can argue that the science is solid but that's not going to help the SP. With little/no good information coming out of SNY/MNKD management, all we have are RX numbers which is why the SP is going down. Just notice how the blog posts on here have dried up...mimics the interest in the stock.
I said weeks ago that we'd see 100 M SI before we see 80 M and it looks like we see $4.50 before we see $5 again. I keep buying the Jan '17 $3 calls since I believe we see $10+ by then. This is the time to buy when there's doubt and you keep asking yourself...WTF is going on???!!!
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Post by thsloppy on Apr 21, 2015 7:06:55 GMT -5
I disagree. It is obvious that shorts are not here for the short term hence the increased interest as the price drops. If there was true manipulation shorts would have covered after the move from 7.5 to here driven by GS. I've felt for a long time and been criticized that there exists a short argument based on risk. For those of us who are longs, we see the potential and possibility because we understand the science and potential market and have accepted the risks. The risks have slowly faded (studies, FDA approval, partner etc.) but the final two short arguments are lack of adoption and potential complications from long term use. Call it a slow launch if you want to, but early scripts are poor. With the number of shares outstanding and long term costs to overcome, we need to move a lot of product...a lot! Hence we are at the acid test. So far, I doubt the real shorts are running scared and are still betting on long term failure. Only real progress in scripts and sales will cause things to turn. If not for the positive feedback from the patients, I'd be reconsidering this 5+ year investment right now as I'm slowly heading back to my basis. After being long from $8 to $19 at FDA approval with VVUS, I saw the early trend in scripts and got out in the 11's. Stock is now $2.
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