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Post by spiro on Jul 12, 2015 9:47:14 GMT -5
Now, about this alleged pumping issue. Spiro would like to know if it is considered pumping if one shares plain old hard factual information on Afrezza's effectiveness? Today Spiro woke up with a FBG of 99. He then consumed 2 scrambled eggs with 2 slices of American cheese, 2 sausage patties 1 Cuban pastelitos de guayaba ( mucho delicioso ) and a cup of coffee for breakfast. Four units of Afrezza and 2 hours later, Spiro just recorded another 99. Spiro's liver, pancreas and kidneys, along with all of his other body parts would like to thank Afrezza from the bottom of their depleted cells. They have been asking Spiro for weeks now, " What the hell took you so long? "
Spiro here, turning up the pump?
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 12, 2015 10:21:02 GMT -5
Now, about this alleged pumping issue. Spiro would like to know if it is consider pumping if one shares plain old hard factual information on Afrezza's effectiveness? Today Spiro woke up with a FBG of 99. He then consumed 2 scrambled eggs with 2 slices of American cheese, 2 sausage patties 1 Cuban pastelitos de guayaba ( mucho delicioso ) and a cup of coffee for breakfast. Four units of Afrezza and 2 hours later, Spiro just recorded another 99. Spiro's liver, pancreas and kidneys, along with all of his other body parts would like to thank Afrezza from the bottom of their depleted cells. They have been asking Spiro for weeks now, " What the hell took you so long? " Spiro here, turning up the pump? IMO Real men have pink stars ....guess ""real pumpers"" (I have to use extra qoutes like ric shorty) have real BG numbers making them ""real experts"" I do find it rather amusing however that the title of this thread managed to result in getting a shorty to post on a Sunday morning...somehow I don't think he enjoyed his morning coffee half as much as you Spiro, keep those ""real pump testimonials"" coming sir...99 very nice indeed!!
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 12, 2015 17:07:17 GMT -5
Let me begin by saying that I am putting forth a theory. I have not posted much on this board but have posted often on the Yahoo Message Board. I figured this was a better forum to share my theory about what will ultimately happen with Mnkd price per share. I welcome a robust discussion pro and con about this topic.
We often hear through articles in magazines, books and talking heads that the value of a stock is established by the tug-o-war between those that think a stock is undervalued and those that think it is overvalued. That struggle results in an equilibrium price where a stock is fairly valued. The fair value of a stock can unfairly be sent downward from time to time by a poor earnings quarter or bad news. Likewise, it can go up, perhaps up too far, on good news like a new patent or partner.
Now let's take a look at Mnkd. I have owned this stock since 2007. For me, owning this stock has provided a brutal lesson in how much I didn't know about stocks and particularly a biotech stock. Some may disagree with me, but in the time I have owned this stock, I believe the pps has been massively manipulated. I have been through bear raids that have dropped the price by a dollar in minutes. I have watched as upwards momentum was killed at just the right time. The sustained downward pressure on this stock is unbelievable. This downward pressure has been applied using short selling. Some of it legal, some of it not so legal. The price shorts have had to pay to keep the price in control is a very large number of short shares outstanding and a huge amount of interest paid to hold those short shares. Although the number of short shares has come down about 15,000,000 in the last month, it still stands at a whooping 115,000,000 shares.
In essence, these short shares represent artificial dilution. In other words, combined with the real 400,000,000 real shares, the total number of shares on the market is 515,000,000 effective shares. This represents a huge artificial constraint that has prevented the proper equilibrium you would find in any healthy stock. It is my theory, that the years of manipulation resulting in a huge amount of short shares outstanding has created a hugely unbalance stock to the downside that is like a tightly wound spring. The short position has counted on Afrezza failing for them to get out. That has not happened and it is highly likely that significant good news will cause years of manipulation to unwind very quickly. My best guess at what the valuation should be is around $20 to $25 a share. It is currently $5.38. The short squeeze that is coming may take the price to $40. Somehow, equilibrium needs to be reestablished after years of artificial manipulation.
My last thought on this. Some posters have claimed that the shorts have hedged all of those short shares using options and other methods. I say hogwash. If that were true, they would not be taking any risk. The only way to make money is to take risk. If there was some great method for guarantying profit by shorting, you can bet there would be 100s of books on how to do it.
Wow there's so many crazy things about your post I can't even think where to start! No such thing as artificial dilution. So the value should be 20-25? With what last Q sales at 1 mil? And that's total before Sonofi cut? Short sellers don't add to the 400 plus share count. If you think MNKD is worth $25 a share at this point you are a dreamer. And it might go to $40 on a short squeeze! If you are looking for that type of return you are going to be very disappointed and should look elsewhere!
Thanks for responding to my post. At least you didn't call me a name as I am used to on YMB. First, let me respond to your comment about artificial dilution. It is a term I made up. Here is how it works at it relates to shorting. Lets say a company has 100 outstanding shares that are owned by insiders and members from the public. Now lets say that 50 shares are allowed to be borrowed and are ultimately sold short. This causes 50 more shares to exist for a time on the market because those short shares are sold at the market price just like any normal share. So for a time, the market value of the stock is diluted by 50 new shares until the short position is bought to cover. My contention is that is artificial dilution because it adds more shares to the market. As far as my loose estimate of what a fair share price is, I do not think it is crazy to think that a company could be fairly valued at $20 billion with an approved drug, Afrezza that could be a multi billion dollar drug. And a new platform,Technosphere that dozens of drugs could be loaded onto to create new drugs. After all, isn't the market supposed to be forward looking for stock price, particularly for a biotech.
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 12, 2015 17:15:08 GMT -5
Notwithstanding your particular numbers on share price, I think you're probably preaching to the choir with regard to potential for short squeeze. It is a market for shares and supply and demand works in similar ways to trading of other commodities. Though I suppose if you're really interested in probabilities you might look into historical data for highly shorted stocks and see how often the short interest manages to unwind without a short squeeze in those cases where the share price really was below inherent value. Alas, I wish I had the time to research how other squeezes unfolded in other stocks. If and when a short squeeze occurs on Mnkd stock, I will feel privileged to have been a part of one of the wildest stocks the market has seen in awhile.
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Post by biotec on Jul 12, 2015 17:19:47 GMT -5
Wow there's so many crazy things about your post I can't even think where to start! No such thing as artificial dilution. So the value should be 20-25? With what last Q sales at 1 mil? And that's total before Sonofi cut? Short sellers don't add to the 400 plus share count. If you think MNKD is worth $25 a share at this point you are a dreamer. And it might go to $40 on a short squeeze! If you are looking for that type of return you are going to be very disappointed and should look elsewhere!
Thanks for responding to my post. At least you didn't call me a name as I am used to on YMB. First, let me respond to your comment about artificial dilution. It is a term I made up. Here is how it works at it relates to shorting. Lets say a company has 100 outstanding shares that are owned by insiders and members from the public. Now lets say that 50 shares are allowed to be borrowed and are ultimately sold short. This causes 50 more shares to exist for a time on the market because those short shares are sold at the market price just like any normal share. So for a time, the market value of the stock is diluted by 50 new shares until the short position is bought to cover. My contention is that is artificial dilution because it adds more shares to the market. As far as my loose estimate of what a fair share price is, I do not think it is crazy to think that a company could be fairly valued at $20 billion with an approved drug, Afrezza that could be a multi billion dollar drug. And a new platform,Technosphere that dozens of drugs could be loaded onto to create new drugs. After all, isn't the market supposed to be forward looking for stock price, particularly for a biotech. We have to see a huge pop in the script count for us to see a $20 billion market cap. I don't see that coming for sometime. Yes P/E for a small biotech with one approved drug often has a high P/E ratio, So far we have no pipeline or trials on going. I see maybe in a year or two we might see that high of a MC, But only if Afrezza sells, If Afrezza is a dud ( I don't think it will be) We have no money for R and D.
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 12, 2015 17:47:21 GMT -5
Central Coast could be right, but a lot of things have to happen quickly before his theory could become true. During the next 6 month's a lot of events could occur that could be quite troubling for the shorts. The biggest would be Sanofi starting to acquire a 5% stake in MNKD or maybe MNKD announcing orders for lines 4 - 12. This would cause a huge wave of more institutional buying and make it quite painful for the shorts. Longs keep hoping for much better script numbers, but so far all we have seen is a slow but steady progression month to month. But one of these weeks we will get that nice RX number, that will drive the price higher. Spiro talked to a new Type 2 Afrezza user the other day who quit using Metformin and started using Afrezza. In the first 10 days, he said his fasting BG dropped 20 points. Spiro told him, the best has yet to come. Diabetics will determine the future of MNKD's share price, not shorts. Will there be a short squeeze? Maybe or maybe not. Spiro is only certain of one thing, Afrezza works incredibly great for him and some other Type 2's who have given it a try. Spiro here, Time is certainly not a friend of the shorts. Spiro, thanks for responding to my post. I have closely followed your BG results on the Afrezzauser challenge. As you say, time is not a friend of the shorts. I recently posted on the YMB that the recent drop of 10,000,000 million shares of short interest, first two weeks of June, resulted in a share price increase of $1.23 per share. There is still a huge amount of short shares to be covered, 115,000,000 and I just don't see how all of them will get out without driving the price way up. We will see soon I believe.
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 12, 2015 17:55:21 GMT -5
The facts you put into printing are valid. TO many articles have been written and express the signs of a company closed to a short squeeze. They all say basically the same criteria: 1. To much excessive shortening. 2. To many days to get out. 3. Talk of buyouts. Shorts had ability to control stock run-ups and replenish shorted shares at controlled low prices, due to a smaller company. New stock purchasers were uncertain in a company which Shows signs of a manipulative nature --not stock natural flow. Then ADD other Comparison of past drugs failures. Each of these results are being overcome by new users who are established long term diabetics and sells are being created by personal . One undeniable fact Afrezza has growth. Now Add all this to a campaign about to start with a world wide sells' team.
This stock price should be investigated. MNKD PPS has been held low in attempts to bankrupt or create a forced buy-out. No stock funded company in America should be sabotaged for personal individual gains in a negative way.
I couldn't agree more. I can't begin to tell you how frustrated I have been on days where I saw upward momentum building in the share price only to watch as the price momentum was killed by strategic short selling. Or watching, as new longs in the stock, having foolishly placed stop orders, see them get stripped of the their shares in minutes on a bear raid. Not only does this kind of manipulation hurt the share price, it begins to rattle people in the long position as they begin to feel that nothing will help the stock, not even good news. It just isn't right that this is allowed to occur. If it wasn't for Al Mann, the dark forces against this stock would have successfully killed the company.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jul 12, 2015 19:10:08 GMT -5
Thanks Central, appreciate your posts a lot, and always learn from you! Thank God for Al. And MNKD is ( The Little Engine That Could!)! Can't wait for the day we have the valuation we deserve! sports
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Post by mnholdem on Jul 12, 2015 20:25:34 GMT -5
Thanks for responding to my post. At least you didn't call me a name as I am used to on YMB. First, let me respond to your comment about artificial dilution. It is a term I made up. Here is how it works at it relates to shorting. Lets say a company has 100 outstanding shares that are owned by insiders and members from the public. Now lets say that 50 shares are allowed to be borrowed and are ultimately sold short. This causes 50 more shares to exist for a time on the market because those short shares are sold at the market price just like any normal share. So for a time, the market value of the stock is diluted by 50 new shares until the short position is bought to cover. My contention is that is artificial dilution because it adds more shares to the market. As far as my loose estimate of what a fair share price is, I do not think it is crazy to think that a company could be fairly valued at $20 billion with an approved drug, Afrezza that could be a multi billion dollar drug. And a new platform,Technosphere that dozens of drugs could be loaded onto to create new drugs. After all, isn't the market supposed to be forward looking for stock price, particularly for a biotech. We have to see a huge pop in the script count for us to see a $20 billion market cap. I don't see that coming for sometime. Yes P/E for a small biotech with one approved drug often has a high P/E ratio, So far we have no pipeline or trials on going. I see maybe in a year or two we might see that high of a MC, But only if Afrezza sells, If Afrezza is a dud ( I don't think it will be) We have no money for R and D. R&D funding is precisely the reason why I think that, this time around, MannKind will sign a partnership agreement for a new pipeline drug PRIOR to any NDA being submitted to the Food & Drug Administration. I also think it will be interesting to see if MannKind secures a similar deal to what they negotiated with Sanofi, where their pharmaceutical/distribution partner takes on the financial responsibility for future drug development and, in return, receives a significant portion of future profits in return.
Setting the Supplier Agreement aside (with its 100% reimbursement by Sanofi of all manufacturing costs), the other Agreement, a 35/65% profit-sharing deal that MannKind made with Sanofi, is quite unique. It also may become standard terms for MannKind's future partners. Sharpen your pencil and figure out what that could mean for, say 3-4 blockbuster drugs, and you'll have arrived at what makes me believe is the reason MannKind will become an extremely profitable product development company within the next decade.
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Some day I plan to extrapolate Matt Pfeffer's comments from August 2014 that the two Agreements (the 35/65% + 100% Cost Reimbursement) when combined is actually closer to a 50-50 deal. I laid out why Matt was telling the truth last year, but I can no longer find that post at Yazoo (in fact many of my 2014 posts have vanished). I think that I might like to explain that whole thing once again...
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Post by seanismorris on Jul 12, 2015 23:39:25 GMT -5
My two cents... It's crazy to project out the MNKD stock price from today. There are too many unknowns.
The shorts aren't responsible for the stock being ~5$, that's entirely from slow sales of Afrezza and not much else with regards to news. In fact, having the stock where it is when Afrezza's sales are minuscule show that people are overwhelmingly optimistic about MNKDs future. I'm am one of those optimists, but I've come to realize achieving profits in MNKD is going to require significant patience.
Don't wake up every morning thinking today is going to be the day of the short squeeze... Play MNKD by keeping the long position and trade the range 5$ to 7$. We have make some money until we get a better idea of what's actually in MNKDs pipeline. It could be a gold mine or garbage (Mannkind isn't showing their hand this early in the game). I'm betting the mine is at least silver...
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 13, 2015 1:26:12 GMT -5
Central Coast could be right, but a lot of things have to happen quickly before his theory could become true. During the next 6 month's a lot of events could occur that could be quite troubling for the shorts. The biggest would be Sanofi starting to acquire a 5% stake in MNKD or maybe MNKD announcing orders for lines 4 - 12. This would cause a huge wave of more institutional buying and make it quite painful for the shorts. Longs keep hoping for much better script numbers, but so far all we have seen is a slow but steady progression month to month. But one of these weeks we will get that nice RX number, that will drive the price higher. Spiro talked to a new Type 2 Afrezza user the other day who quit using Metformin and started using Afrezza. In the first 10 days, he said his fasting BG dropped 20 points. Spiro told him, the best has yet to come. Diabetics will determine the future of MNKD's share price, not shorts. Will there be a short squeeze? Maybe or maybe not. Spiro is only certain of one thing, Afrezza works incredibly great for him and some other Type 2's who have given it a try. Spiro here, Time is certainly not a friend of the shorts. Spiro, thanks for responding to my post. I have closely followed your BG results on the Afrezzauser challenge. As you say, time is not a friend of the shorts. I recently posted on the YMB that the recent drop of 10,000,000 million shares of short interest, first two weeks of June, resulted in a share price increase of $1.23 per share. There is still a huge amount of short shares to be covered, 115,000,000 and I just don't see how all of them will get out without driving the price way up. We will see soon I believe. CCInvestor, I really think the short squeeze took us up about two bucks, from low 5's to low 7's, and there may have been a day, June 15, that accounted for more covering that was reported in the period ending June 29. So 40% was a terrific rise, but it was not sustained. So, unless you're willing to sell some or all, well, frankly, so far, we seem to come back down. So, 15,000,000 shares have covered and it hasn't gotten us much at all. These shorts, very, very clever and who the heck knows just what kind of tools are in their tool bag.
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Post by parrerob on Jul 13, 2015 3:29:53 GMT -5
Dear all,
I don't believe in a squeeze here. Any case I like the argument. But what is to be considered a squeeze ? I believe everybody agree on 2008 "Volkswagen" example for a squeeze definition. So I would like just to add historical information about Volkswagen.
First of all the two scenario are very different. Here is the Volk. oneAttachment Deleted 1) Volkswagen, at the time of the squeeze (2008), had quarterly sales since a lot of time and PPS was quite adeguate to them and the fact they were decreasing 2) Volkswagen was perfmorming bad in the market and SI interest was huge 3) Porsche was escalating Volkswagen buying shares in the market 4) Squeeze happened as soon as HFs realized Porsche activity and loss of shares available
PPS was around 200 euro per share and in only 2 days it was around 1000 euro per share. the third day PPS went towards normal prices.
Are there any analogies ? Interesting to see the 5 days before the squeeze ... very low volume, PPS dow.... interesting.
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 13, 2015 5:24:19 GMT -5
Dear all,
I don't believe in a squeeze here. Any case I like the argument. But what is to be considered a squeeze ? I believe everybody agree on 2008 "Volkswagen" example for a squeeze definition. So I would like just to add historical information about Volkswagen.
First of all the two scenario are very different. Here is the Volk. one 1) Volkswagen, at the time of the squeeze (2008), had quarterly sales since a lot of time and PPS was quite adeguate to them and the fact they were decreasing 2) Volkswagen was perfmorming bad in the market and SI interest was huge 3) Porsche was escalating Volkswagen buying shares in the market 4) Squeeze happened as soon as HFs realized Porsche activity and loss of shares available
PPS was around 200 euro per share and in only 2 days it was around 1000 euro per share. the third day PPS went towards normal prices.
Are there any analogies ? Interesting to see the 5 days before the squeeze ... very low volume, PPS dow.... interesting.
I think there is a difference between the Mnkd case and the Volkswagen squeeze. As I mentioned in my original post, in the normal open market for a stock, an equilibrium is found when a fair tug-o-war occurs between the pro and con forces buying and selling to arrive at a long term fair price. That fair long term process has not been allowed to occur in Mnkd stock due to massive long term manipulation. This has resulted in a very unbalanced stock price to the downside for Mnkd. Volkswagen did have that long term open market struggle to arrive at a fair price, but due to long term under performance, investors were shorting the stock and an unknown catalyst surprised the market. Mnkd on the other hand has had multiple major good news events that would have normally driven up any biotech stock price. Not so here. As more good news spreads about Afrezza and Technosphere, I believe there will be a snap back effect as Mnkd stock begins finding the price equilibrium it has been prevented from obtaining due to the manipulation.
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 13, 2015 5:31:06 GMT -5
Thanks Central, appreciate your posts a lot, and always learn from you! Thank God for Al. And MNKD is ( The Little Engine That Could!)! Can't wait for the day we have the valuation we deserve! sports Thanks for your kind words. Who knew that by owning Mnkd, I would become a part of a larger cause. Even though I am not diabetic, I am now a diabetic advocate as well as an investor. It is amazing to me what Al had to endure to see that Afrezza got to market.
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Post by od on Jul 13, 2015 8:32:11 GMT -5
Thanks Central, appreciate your posts a lot, and always learn from you! Thank God for Al. And MNKD is ( The Little Engine That Could!)! Can't wait for the day we have the valuation we deserve! sports On fundamentals alone, what valuation do we deserve today? It is easy to confuse longs who are diehard believers in the company, and longs who are laying in wait for a short squeeze. No issue with either, but as someone interested in pulmonary drug delivery for 15+ years, I prefer advice/musings from the diehard believers.
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