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Post by biotec on Jul 13, 2015 16:54:43 GMT -5
Let me first disclaim before I write my personal post about shorts and MNKD... I have never shorted a stock nor do I know the details about how it works with the "Big Boys." I am strictly a long investor who likes to buy and hold. Having said that, here are a few of my observations/thoughts about the shorts regarding mnkd: 1.) The Professional Managers of funds shorting Mnkd are likely very savvy and smart. While they may not have understood Afrezza's real value in the beginning I am confident they do now for the most part. 2.) They have a lot of money at risk. If you take a "snap shot" with the most current information, (110m shares short at a current pps of $5.65) we are looking at $621,500 at risk, although we don't know where the loss point is for them. 3.) I am assuming that the short players are a small mix of major players (just my pure speculation as not too many orgs would have the funds or assets to acquire enough of a short position to make a difference in pps from day to day) and a bunch of lessor players and retail accounts. 4.) The major players have several advantages that we as long investors do not, such as : Use of high speed Algorithms, deep research and sources legit or otherwise, use of OPM (other people's money), the ability to Hedge with Calls on the other side for the eventual upside we all see, and other tools that I am mostly unaware of. 5.) A seemingly endless ability to keep the stock in a certain price range or take it down when they look to cover (or buy more for the eventual long position some may take) 6.) The only public data we retail longs get is two weeks old at the time of publishing. 7.) The ability to cover and re-short at higher levels until it no longer makes sense. Meaning until we have solid growth numbers which will prevent (greatly lessen) their ability to take the pps down at will, (which they can do now,) I do not think it matters what the price is too much because with no substantive data to support a solid share price base, such as sales revenue numbers, the lack of real numbers is going to be their friend. Given the above, and likely many things that I have not mentioned and am unaware of, I do not think we can predict whether a short squeeze or an orderly exit by the shorts will take place. I personally would be happy with either. If we get a short squeeze as some believe then it will be fun to watch. However I personally do not plan to buy or sell as once the dust settles, b/c as mentioned, I am playing a long game with MNKD. And I do believe, as someone else recently posted, the price will come back down to earth off it's highs and settle in at the legitimate/rationale market price for the first time since I have been an investor (first shares in 2008). At that point the market will have finally spoken for itself in a rationale manner for the first time since the IPO and I believe at that point we will finally be able to make predictions that are more reliable and valid about the future. Either way, I do feel that we get closer everyday to the moment of real and rationale truth about Mannkind... GLTAL's! Well said Mannmade. I agree with most of your points. There is one point that I will dispute. I don't believe the short position can take the price down at will to cover. To take the price down, they must sell first and then hope to dupe some longs into selling so they can scoop the shares up. I really don't think that method will allow 115,0000,000 shares to be covered. The smart shorts are covering now in small lots. The others will be cooked when the share price tries to reach equilibrium. Who knows what trigger will cause that to happen. Who knows what trigger will cause that? Its called Sales of Afrezza! We need this to be a blockbuster (1-2 billion of sales) To trigger the shorts to cover. I do agree the smart shorts are covering in small lots, I don't see a huge short squeeze like GMCR and someone posted VW as an example, That was the biggest squeeze ever, But read all about it, Its not MNKD. Don't expect a 100% jump on the shorts covering.
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Post by mannmade on Jul 13, 2015 16:58:52 GMT -5
I respectfully disagree as imho I think share price will be a reflection of a certain sales number far below 1B to 2B but nonetheless a sales number that reflects a "tipping point" in sales based on a history of sales or trends Reflecting significant Q x Q growth that allows for the forecasting of growth within a certain timeline that gets Afrezza to ur 1B to 2B in sales.
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Post by biotec on Jul 13, 2015 17:22:59 GMT -5
I respectfully disagree as imho I think share price will be a reflection of a certain sales number far below 1B to 2B but nonetheless a sales number that reflects a "tipping point" in sales based on a history of sales or trends Reflecting significant Q x Q growth that allows for the forecasting of growth within a certain timeline that gets Afrezza to ur 1B to 2B in sales. What is your tipping point then? 1B sales gives us (MNKD) 350Mil. I know Sonofi pays for this and that ETC, ETC. So If no pipe line partner comes forward, With 1 B sales what do you think our market cap will be and should be?
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Post by mannmade on Jul 13, 2015 17:26:17 GMT -5
Honestly I don't know. That is a number that the market will tell us at some point. I don't mean to be so vague but it's not a prediction I am comfortable making. It could also be influenced by other events such as an announcement by Sanofi that they have taken a 5% plus stake or that a TS deal has been signed w terms the market likes.
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Post by BD on Jul 13, 2015 17:30:04 GMT -5
IMO, all it will really take is a "preponderance of the evidence" that Afrezza is moving towards blockbuster status in order to hasten the shorts' exit. I'm fine with a slow, steady increase in the appearance of such evidence.
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Post by biotec on Jul 13, 2015 17:36:38 GMT -5
Honestly I don't know. That is a number that the market will tell us at some point. I don't mean to be so vague but it's not a prediction I am comfortable making. It could also be influenced by other events such as an announcement by Sanofi that they have taken a 5% plus stake or that a TS deal has been signed w terms the market likes. I agree, But I don't think a partner will sign any deal on TS until its proven Afrezza will be a blockbuster. Why would a BP risk money on a new platform until they see the results of TS with Afrezza? Becouse they what to jump the gun on competitors? And why this Sanofi 5% talk keeps coming up? Why is this 5% stake so newsworthy? And why do you think sanofi is buying?
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Post by mannmade on Jul 13, 2015 17:37:45 GMT -5
BD you now sound like a lawyer (am not sure if u r or not). Perhaps Baba can use a new partner.
What u call a "preponderance of the evidence" is a more succinct way of saying what I was trying to convey in my last post above.
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Post by spiro on Jul 13, 2015 17:38:41 GMT -5
Mannmade and the Baba are difficult to debate against, they must both be lawyers. Actually Spiro likes to compare shorts to the government of Greece. They are both experts at paying exceptionally high interest rates on their debt or borrowed shares. Central Coast has presented a very strong rationale for the problems facing the shorts. It is Spiro's position that major institutional holders like Vanguard, Blackrock and Fidelity, among others have the shorts by their cajones. Spiro is much more fixated on the increasing institutional holders rather than on the now decreasing short holders. The large interest charges have been very painful for the shorts during the past year, particularly since Jan 1 of 2015. While the managers at Vanguard, Blackrock, Fidelity and Ashiwi's have a big grin their faces every month when they get their interest checks. Ok, Spiro has a small grin on his face He has used his free money from the shorts to buy 80 Jan 2016, $5 and $5.50 calls.
Spiro here, awaiting good news on the convertible debt issue. ( Hopefully Good News )
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Post by mannmade on Jul 13, 2015 17:48:23 GMT -5
Spiro I must confess I am a recovering lawyer. I live it one day at a time and occasionally have a lapse. Please forgive me when I do.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 13, 2015 18:00:38 GMT -5
Calls are not from nothing...... shorted shares are really in the hands of someone and really need to be bought. MMs have to buy shares when selling calls Bravissimo Parrerob! Whether it's having to buy shares when they take the other side of the trade or laddering up out of the money with spreads it has to net out somewhere...as I've analogized previously to the Greeks and IMF kicking the can down the road the "hedging with options" response is such a cop out because they never account for the other side of the trade that is still short until covered. Sure if I'm short and take out calls to limit my risk exposure, another entity is "taking the ball" so how do they lay it off without some other party absorbing it. Somewhere you have to find clothes for the emperor...or he has to get exposed for what he is...naked The ability to nail strike prices works until it doesn't and then when faced with the possibilities of deep losses you will see swift moves as was the case from those mid 3.50 lows to the low to mid 7's...that was an appetizer and a very tasty one at that...I don't necessarily put this in a GMCR or VW camp, lets keep it in the biotech arena and just say DNDN but with a 1000% more sustainable and viable product/blockbuster.
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Post by BD on Jul 13, 2015 18:01:03 GMT -5
BD you now sound like a lawyer (am not sure if u r or not). Perhaps Baba can use a new partner. What u call a "preponderance of the evidence" is a more succinct way of saying what I was trying to convey in my last post above. Neither am I a lawyer, nor do I even play one on message boards. What I've been noticing is that the market is (slowly but surely) getting better at separating the wheat from the chaff when it comes to MNKD actual facts vs. the tripe excreted by AF and the various other short-interest mouthpieces. And these days, the data points indicating steady uptake / user satisfaction seem to be appearing more frequently, while the frequency of inventive FUD seems to be on the wane (not that there won't be bursts of the latter as shorts coordinate with FUDsters to launch their next bear raids.) Boy, do we need light shed on the cretins gaming our PPS. I wonder how's that Rolling Stone article's coming?
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Post by mannmade on Jul 13, 2015 18:18:07 GMT -5
Actually on this Board you are da Judge... Agree on other stuff as I think we keep getting closer to that moment in time...
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Post by mannmade on Jul 13, 2015 18:26:00 GMT -5
Biotec A TS deal could be signed for many reasons. For example they are using API's that are most adaptable and cost effective to bring to market. As a result a partner may be likely to jump in earlier than later with the new product to beat the competition.
Afrezza has proved that TS works and will be approved by our friends at the FDA. The next application will not be as likely to be as complex to use as Afrezza is for some diabetics. For example the pain med everyone talks about. Simply inhale and you are done. No need to follow up w BS or second dosing issues.
As for Sanofi and the 5% magic number that is the number that triggers govt disclosure requirements. For all we know they own shares of mnkd but less than 5%.
There is no expectation they will purchase shares in mnkd necessarily but they have displayed a willingness to do so in the past w Reign which helped drive the share price up significantly when it was disclosed.
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Post by biotec on Jul 13, 2015 18:36:32 GMT -5
Biotec A TS deal could be signed for many reasons. For example they are using API's that are most adaptable and cost effective to bring to market. As a result a partner may be likely to jump in earlier than later w Afrezza to beat the competition. Afrezza has proved that TS works and will be approved by our friends at the FDA. The next application will not be as likely to be as complex to use as Afrezza is for some diabetics. For example the pain med everyone talks about. Simply inhale and you are done. No need to follow up w BS or second dosing issues. As for Sanofi and the 5% magic number that is the number that triggers govt disclosure requirements. For all we know they own shares of mnkd but less than 5%. There is no expectation they will purchase shares in mnkd necessarily but they have displayed a willingness to do so in the past w Reign which helped drive the share price up significantly when it was disclosed. I never heard of the %5 rule. Why would Sanofi buy less then 5%? Why would they what to hide it? I think its all gossip. A company with a MC like Sanofi has is not going to play grab ass!!
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Post by mannmade on Jul 13, 2015 18:47:32 GMT -5
They would buy less then 5% (I am not saying they have or will) so they do not have to publically disclose as required by law. Black Rock's recent ownership disclosure was triggered by this same law for your reference.
Theoretically they would buy part of mnkd b/c they believe it makes business sense as they did w Reign.
They may not want to own 5% or more b/c the legally required public disclosure might give away or tip their level of confidence to the competition. And as we know they have been very tight lipped about Afrezza.
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