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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 11, 2015 15:52:40 GMT -5
Let me begin by saying that I am putting forth a theory. I have not posted much on this board but have posted often on the Yahoo Message Board. I figured this was a better forum to share my theory about what will ultimately happen with Mnkd price per share. I welcome a robust discussion pro and con about this topic.
We often hear through articles in magazines, books and talking heads that the value of a stock is established by the tug-o-war between those that think a stock is undervalued and those that think it is overvalued. That struggle results in an equilibrium price where a stock is fairly valued. The fair value of a stock can unfairly be sent downward from time to time by a poor earnings quarter or bad news. Likewise, it can go up, perhaps up too far, on good news like a new patent or partner.
Now let's take a look at Mnkd. I have owned this stock since 2007. For me, owning this stock has provided a brutal lesson in how much I didn't know about stocks and particularly a biotech stock. Some may disagree with me, but in the time I have owned this stock, I believe the pps has been massively manipulated. I have been through bear raids that have dropped the price by a dollar in minutes. I have watched as upwards momentum was killed at just the right time. The sustained downward pressure on this stock is unbelievable. This downward pressure has been applied using short selling. Some of it legal, some of it not so legal. The price shorts have had to pay to keep the price in control is a very large number of short shares outstanding and a huge amount of interest paid to hold those short shares. Although the number of short shares has come down about 15,000,000 in the last month, it still stands at a whooping 115,000,000 shares.
In essence, these short shares represent artificial dilution. In other words, combined with the real 400,000,000 real shares, the total number of shares on the market is 515,000,000 effective shares. This represents a huge artificial constraint that has prevented the proper equilibrium you would find in any healthy stock. It is my theory, that the years of manipulation resulting in a huge amount of short shares outstanding has created a hugely unbalance stock to the downside that is like a tightly wound spring. The short position has counted on Afrezza failing for them to get out. That has not happened and it is highly likely that significant good news will cause years of manipulation to unwind very quickly. My best guess at what the valuation should be is around $20 to $25 a share. It is currently $5.38. The short squeeze that is coming may take the price to $40. Somehow, equilibrium needs to be reestablished after years of artificial manipulation.
My last thought on this. Some posters have claimed that the shorts have hedged all of those short shares using options and other methods. I say hogwash. If that were true, they would not be taking any risk. The only way to make money is to take risk. If there was some great method for guarantying profit by shorting, you can bet there would be 100s of books on how to do it.
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Post by biotec on Jul 11, 2015 17:40:40 GMT -5
Let me begin by saying that I am putting forth a theory. I have not posted much on this board but have posted often on the Yahoo Message Board. I figured this was a better forum to share my theory about what will ultimately happen with Mnkd price per share. I welcome a robust discussion pro and con about this topic.
We often hear through articles in magazines, books and talking heads that the value of a stock is established by the tug-o-war between those that think a stock is undervalued and those that think it is overvalued. That struggle results in an equilibrium price where a stock is fairly valued. The fair value of a stock can unfairly be sent downward from time to time by a poor earnings quarter or bad news. Likewise, it can go up, perhaps up too far, on good news like a new patent or partner.
Now let's take a look at Mnkd. I have owned this stock since 2007. For me, owning this stock has provided a brutal lesson in how much I didn't know about stocks and particularly a biotech stock. Some may disagree with me, but in the time I have owned this stock, I believe the pps has been massively manipulated. I have been through bear raids that have dropped the price by a dollar in minutes. I have watched as upwards momentum was killed at just the right time. The sustained downward pressure on this stock is unbelievable. This downward pressure has been applied using short selling. Some of it legal, some of it not so legal. The price shorts have had to pay to keep the price in control is a very large number of short shares outstanding and a huge amount of interest paid to hold those short shares. Although the number of short shares has come down about 15,000,000 in the last month, it still stands at a whooping 115,000,000 shares.
In essence, these short shares represent artificial dilution. In other words, combined with the real 400,000,000 real shares, the total number of shares on the market is 515,000,000 effective shares. This represents a huge artificial constraint that has prevented the proper equilibrium you would find in any healthy stock. It is my theory, that the years of manipulation resulting in a huge amount of short shares outstanding has created a hugely unbalance stock to the downside that is like a tightly wound spring. The short position has counted on Afrezza failing for them to get out. That has not happened and it is highly likely that significant good news will cause years of manipulation to unwind very quickly. My best guess at what the valuation should be is around $20 to $25 a share. It is currently $5.38. The short squeeze that is coming may take the price to $40. Somehow, equilibrium needs to be reestablished after years of artificial manipulation.
My last thought on this. Some posters have claimed that the shorts have hedged all of those short shares using options and other methods. I say hogwash. If that were true, they would not be taking any risk. The only way to make money is to take risk. If there was some great method for guarantying profit by shorting, you can bet there would be 100s of books on how to do it.
Wow there's so many crazy things about your post I can't even think where to start! No such thing as artificial dilution. So the value should be 20-25? With what last Q sales at 1 mil? And that's total before Sonofi cut? Short sellers don't add to the 400 plus share count. If you think MNKD is worth $25 a share at this point you are a dreamer. And it might go to $40 on a short squeeze! If you are looking for that type of return you are going to be very disappointed and should look elsewhere!
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 11, 2015 17:41:09 GMT -5
Notwithstanding your particular numbers on share price, I think you're probably preaching to the choir with regard to potential for short squeeze. It is a market for shares and supply and demand works in similar ways to trading of other commodities. Though I suppose if you're really interested in probabilities you might look into historical data for highly shorted stocks and see how often the short interest manages to unwind without a short squeeze in those cases where the share price really was below inherent value.
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Post by spiro on Jul 11, 2015 18:41:41 GMT -5
Central Coast could be right, but a lot of things have to happen quickly before his theory could become true. During the next 6 month's a lot of events could occur that could be quite troubling for the shorts. The biggest would be Sanofi starting to acquire a 5% stake in MNKD or maybe MNKD announcing orders for lines 4 - 12. This would cause a huge wave of more institutional buying and make it quite painful for the shorts. Longs keep hoping for much better script numbers, but so far all we have seen is a slow but steady progression month to month. But one of these weeks we will get that nice RX number, that will drive the price higher. Spiro talked to a new Type 2 Afrezza user the other day who quit using Metformin and started using Afrezza. In the first 10 days, he said his fasting BG dropped 20 points. Spiro told him, the best has yet to come. Diabetics will determine the future of MNKD's share price, not shorts. Will there be a short squeeze? Maybe or maybe not. Spiro is only certain of one thing, Afrezza works incredibly great for him and some other Type 2's who have given it a try.
Spiro here, Time is certainly not a friend of the shorts.
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Post by ricguy on Jul 11, 2015 22:55:48 GMT -5
Biotech is right "If you think MNKD is worth $25 a share at this point you are a dreamer. And it might go to $40 on a short squeeze!"
I will take it a step further. Thinking this stock will ever get to $25 let alone $40 is absolutely crazy and not facing reality. If this stock hits $15 in another 5 years it will be a miracle!
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 11, 2015 23:06:46 GMT -5
ricguy, people have been known to miraculously disappear from this board, so miracles abound here!
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Post by ricguy on Jul 12, 2015 0:10:59 GMT -5
ricguy, people have been known to miraculously disappear from this board, so miracles abound here! Thats great! And I'm sure the pps has gone up since those miracles are abound here ;-) People disappear from here once they get bored with the "expert and empty rhetoric" much like ymb. I know there are many ""experts"" had to put many quotes around that one, here, um nevermind I'm already bored so I am dissappearing now. Maybe I'll stop back in a few years to check in but I doubt it! |
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Post by Chris-C on Jul 12, 2015 1:00:33 GMT -5
ricguy, people have been known to miraculously disappear from this board, so miracles abound here! Thats great! And I'm sure the pps has gone up since those miracles are abound here ;-) People disappear from here once they get bored with the "expert and empty rhetoric" much like ymb. I know there are many ""experts"" had to put many quotes around that one, here, um nevermind I'm already bored so I am dissappearing now. Maybe I'll stop back in a few years to check in but I doubt it! Adiós shorty. |
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 12, 2015 1:18:26 GMT -5
ricguy, don't fret none, cyberdoors don't hurt.
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Post by gwb on Jul 12, 2015 3:05:33 GMT -5
centralcoastinvestor , IMO , your theory is valid if movement begin as Spiro mentioned above.. If the DTC comes on strong in August , the convertible bond debt is resolved in a favorable fashion, peer reviews from top doctors begin to be shared that show basically what Affrezzauser has documented in A1C control, the 12 unit is marketed and some demonstration of new TS products is shared with the investment community . There are many companies with market caps higher than MNKD that do not have approved products. I also have been in since 2007 ( same year ) and learned hard lessons . There has been years of downward pressure on MNKD , the bad news has been catastrophic to PPS and the good has been muted in PPS . IMO if the above happens soon ( which I believe it will, by August / September 2015 ) , the shorts are DOA ( done ) and we may see a spike . At $ 20 per share MNKD mkt cap is about 10 B ( using 500 million shares as outstanding ). I have been hoping for years of a 20 B market cap which would be $ 40 per share , but I would be more than pleased to see $ 20 per share within the next 6 months .As Spiro said people are going to demand it . There are many on this board that have been in longer than us ( 2007 ), but it's really time now , everything is real and Afrezza works better than most of us thought ! Time is in our hands now, the shorts are running out of time .
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Post by dejude42 on Jul 12, 2015 5:27:39 GMT -5
The facts you put into printing are valid. TO many articles have been written and express the signs of a company closed to a short squeeze. They all say basically the same criteria: 1. To much excessive shortening. 2. To many days to get out. 3. Talk of buyouts. Shorts had ability to control stock run-ups and replenish shorted shares at controlled low prices, due to a smaller company. New stock purchasers were uncertain in a company which Shows signs of a manipulative nature --not stock natural flow. Then ADD other Comparison of past drugs failures. Each of these results are being overcome by new users who are established long term diabetics and sells are being created by personal . One undeniable fact Afrezza has growth. Now Add all this to a campaign about to start with a world wide sells' team.
This stock price should be investigated. MNKD PPS has been held low in attempts to bankrupt or create a forced buy-out. No stock funded company in America should be sabotaged for personal individual gains in a negative way.
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Post by biotec on Jul 12, 2015 8:06:56 GMT -5
Im not saying we never see $20 or even $40, Im just saying its not going to happen overnight, I hope Im wrong about that.
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Post by BD on Jul 12, 2015 8:22:08 GMT -5
When stocks get beaten down due to unscrupulous short interest activities, they sure as heck can and do bounce back. The one I have some personal experience with is GMCR. Einhorn and his cronies were able to bully the PPS down from 115 to 17-ish in about one year's time; two years later, it was back up to 150+. Even though you might argue GMCR was way oversold at 17 and way overbought at 155, that's what price action does.
It is not at all unreasonable to believe MNKD could be in the 20-40 range within a couple of years. Nor is it unreasonable to believe it won't. What's unreasonable is to disparage someone else whose belief on this issue happens to differ from one's own, because nobody knows what's going to happen; this market--and this battleground stock--are whacked out enough to be completely unpredictable.
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Post by spiro on Jul 12, 2015 8:27:57 GMT -5
it pains Spiro to admit that he can get wee bit disappointed in the morning when he sees Mrs. Spiro fasting BG at 80, only to see his FBG at 99. But then again, 99 is a whole lot better than the 145t Spiro would have gotten 5 month's ago. Spiro is currently setting up some protocols for non randomized BG testing between himself and Mrs. Spiro, after eating the same exact meal. At the moment Mrs. Spiro has dropped out of the trial and is refusing to cooperate. Geez, it would only be a measly 12 finger pricks a day. Spiro has been sent back to his den to play war games with his leftover Dreamboat collection. Spiro believes that most Type 2's are not stupid and when they find out about Afrezza most of them will eventually try it. Let's see, after DTC TV ads on Afrezza, how many scripts would result from 500,000 Type 1 and 2's demanding to try Afrezza during their next doctor visit? Two percent would be 10,000. Get ready to say Afrezza will be a blockbuster, it's coming. Liane, please forgive Spiro, he gets into pumping mode occasionally on Sunday's.
Spiro here, it looks like Afrezza has set back his Glucose clock about 10 years.
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Post by chicagpete on Jul 12, 2015 9:04:34 GMT -5
centralcoastinvestor , IMO , your theory is valid if movement begin as Spiro mentioned above.. If the DTC comes on strong in August , the convertible bond debt is resolved in a favorable fashion, peer reviews from top doctors begin to be shared that show basically what Affrezzauser has documented in A1C control, the 12 unit is marketed and some demonstration of new TS products is shared with the investment community . There are many companies with market caps higher than MNKD that do not have approved products. I also have been in since 2007 ( same year ) and learned hard lessons . There has been years of downward pressure on MNKD , the bad news has been catastrophic to PPS and the good has been muted in PPS . IMO if the above happens soon ( which I believe it will, by August / September 2015 ) , the shorts are DOA ( done ) and we may see a spike . At $ 20 per share MNKD mkt cap is about 10 B ( using 500 million shares as outstanding ). I have been hoping for years of a 20 B market cap which would be $ 40 per share , but I would be more than pleased to see $ 20 per share within the next 6 months .As Spiro said people are going to demand it . There are many on this board that have been in longer than us ( 2007 ), but it's really time now , everything is real and Afrezza works better than most of us thought ! Time is in our hands now, the shorts are running out of time . GWB - nice summary. And you didn't even have to use the word "brink". Thanks for posting. |
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