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Post by mmaccani on Jul 13, 2015 9:20:32 GMT -5
Innovative companies are not traded on fundamentals; clearly MNKD pps will increase with a steady increase in TRx but the strange thing is that it may explode if for some motivation people start to believe in it. TC potential is astonishing, if fully developed may justify a market cap in excess of 40B. Now why we have a capitalization of only 2B, simply because most people does not believe it. Mann is not Musk. But think about it, which company has more potential a TESLA that has hundred of very clever competitors and does not have any strong patent or MNKD that has a target market nearly as big as TSLA and very strong patent protection? It is just a question of "Cult", if at a certain point MNKD is recognized for what it can be pps will skyrocket. If not will slowly but securly increase
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Post by peppy on Jul 13, 2015 9:29:22 GMT -5
Buyers. Volume is back. We all know why. Spiro recapped it well above. In my usual fashion the recap. "During the next 6 month's a lot of events could occur that could be quite troubling for the shorts. The biggest would be Sanofi starting to acquire a 5% stake in MNKD or maybe MNKD announcing orders for lines 4 - 12. This would cause a huge wave of more institutional buying and make it quite painful for the shorts. Longs keep hoping for much better script numbers, but so far all we have seen is a slow but steady progression month to month. But one of these weeks we will get that nice RX number, that will drive the price higher. Spiro talked to a new Type 2 Afrezza user the other day who quit using Metformin and started using Afrezza. In the first 10 days, he said his fasting BG dropped 20 points. Spiro told him, the best has yet to come. Diabetics will determine the future of MNKD's share price, not shorts. Will there be a short squeeze? Maybe or maybe not. Spiro is only certain of one thing, Afrezza works incredibly great for him and some other Type 2's who have given it a try. " Attachment Deleted
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Post by parrerob on Jul 13, 2015 10:45:50 GMT -5
Totally agree .... For example I am following ACADIA. One drug developped but still to be approved (some problems on manufactoring causing delay for CRL). Huge market. Good but small and limited pipeline. The company is now at 4Billion ! Unbelieavable thinking about MNKD (nothing to say against ACAD) ! Also EGRX .... Very good pipeline .... some products in the market yet .... In january his market cap was 200 Millions. Then It was just a news about a partnership with TEVA (who can take advantage by EGRX to prolong their expiring drug ! like TS for example, but unlike TS it is only for ONE drug) and now market cap is 1,3 Billion.
This investment was my best one in all my history. And I had 10K euros invested here last june (PPS was 13$) but at that time PPS was stable so I decided to sell 50% and to buy more shares in MNKD ... and it was june 2014 !!!!! So You can imagine ! In July MNKD partneship starting the slope down ...... Then in the winter the parnership between EGRX and TEVA bringing EGRX from 13-14 range to 80 - 90 range. But I don't care (probably if I had decided to sell the whole 100% of EGRX, now I was caring for sure). I am very happy about my original 5K in EGRX and specially I still believe my money invested in MNKD is in good place. My post is just to say that in Biotech nothing is standard. I have 2 important point I always try to follow: 1) Invest only into "good" products in good markets 2) Be patient entering the stock, search for the best time
Point 1 is ok with me. At least I can be luky, but it is ok Point 2 is a disaster (at least for me) but I am convinced that it is because of Biotech market
I really believe everybody here can give examples like these ones.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 13, 2015 11:55:42 GMT -5
I'm actually a little surprised that the shorts don't seem to ever get rattled when we have these rallies. MNKD has gone up 11% in 2 trading days. That would make me very nervous as a short. But for whatever reason, it appears that barring a change in material facts, the shorts believe there is no danger from a rally getting out of control and turning into a short squeeze.
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 13, 2015 12:03:17 GMT -5
Good point, DBC, they did get a little nervous when we moved from 5 to 7 not long ago, but I see no signs of nervousness now. If we can push up a bit more perhaps a fuse will be lit?
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Post by mnholdem on Jul 13, 2015 12:55:11 GMT -5
Should a basher who suddenly becoming more caustic and/or rude (that is, much more than s/he normally is) be interpreted as being suddenly nervous or desperate? I have noticed a change in this "tone" on up weeks over that past few months. Sad to say, there haven't been many of those.
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Post by parrerob on Jul 13, 2015 13:20:47 GMT -5
Good point, DBC, they did get a little nervous when we moved from 5 to 7 not long ago, but I see no signs of nervousness now. If we can push up a bit more perhaps a fuse will be lit? That was 10m short covering period..... so provably they were nervous because not sure of the result? It was quite a 40% up with 10m covered...... but they will suffer more when some big player enter the game like in February......
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Post by mssciguy on Jul 13, 2015 13:30:32 GMT -5
Some very credible poster on stocktwits and ymb seem to think the shorts will cover through options positions. Watch the options. Volume, call/put ratio, price. I wish I knew more about that, but will stick with the science of it all--- with HFT anything can happen with prices on expirations Fridays.
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Post by parrerob on Jul 13, 2015 13:37:58 GMT -5
Calls are not from nothing...... shorted shares are really in the hands of someone and really need to be bought. MMs have to buy shares when selling calls
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Post by mannmade on Jul 13, 2015 14:01:25 GMT -5
Let me first disclaim before I write my personal post about shorts and MNKD... I have never shorted a stock nor do I know the details about how it works with the "Big Boys." I am strictly a long investor who likes to buy and hold. Having said that, here are a few of my observations/thoughts about the shorts regarding mnkd:
1.) The Professional Managers of funds shorting Mnkd are likely very savvy and smart. While they may not have understood Afrezza's real value in the beginning I am confident they do now for the most part.
2.) They have a lot of money at risk. If you take a "snap shot" with the most current information, (110m shares short at a current pps of $5.65) we are looking at $621,500 at risk, although we don't know where the loss point is for them.
3.) I am assuming that the short players are a small mix of major players (just my pure speculation as not too many orgs would have the funds or assets to acquire enough of a short position to make a difference in pps from day to day) and a bunch of lessor players and retail accounts.
4.) The major players have several advantages that we as long investors do not, such as : Use of high speed Algorithms, deep research and sources legit or otherwise, use of OPM (other people's money), the ability to Hedge with Calls on the other side for the eventual upside we all see, and other tools that I am mostly unaware of.
5.) A seemingly endless ability to keep the stock in a certain price range or take it down when they look to cover (or buy more for the eventual long position some may take)
6.) The only public data we retail longs get is two weeks old at the time of publishing.
7.) The ability to cover and re-short at higher levels until it no longer makes sense. Meaning until we have solid growth numbers which will prevent (greatly lessen) their ability to take the pps down at will, (which they can do now,) I do not think it matters what the price is too much because with no substantive data to support a solid share price base, such as sales revenue numbers, the lack of real numbers is going to be their friend.
Given the above, and likely many things that I have not mentioned and am unaware of, I do not think we can predict whether a short squeeze or an orderly exit by the shorts will take place. I personally would be happy with either. If we get a short squeeze as some believe then it will be fun to watch. However I personally do not plan to buy or sell as once the dust settles, b/c as mentioned, I am playing a long game with MNKD. And I do believe, as someone else recently posted, the price will come back down to earth off it's highs and settle in at the legitimate/rationale market price for the first time since I have been an investor (first shares in 2008). At that point the market will have finally spoken for itself in a rationale manner for the first time since the IPO and I believe at that point we will finally be able to make predictions that are more reliable and valid about the future. Either way, I do feel that we get closer everyday to the moment of real and rationale truth about Mannkind... GLTAL's!
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Post by ripano on Jul 13, 2015 14:12:54 GMT -5
We are very close to shorts aka BUYERS , unwinding this trade. They loaded the boat with shares. Insty holdings continue to go up. Exit will indeed be via call options. This will be amazing to watch.
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 13, 2015 14:29:33 GMT -5
Mannmade, re your point 2: "They have a lot of money at risk. If you take a "snap shot" with the most current information, (110m shares short at a current pps of $5.65) we are looking at $621,500 at risk, although we don't know where the loss point is for them." The number you're looking for is three digits longer - $621,500,000!
However, I don't look at their risk that way. Theoretically, their risk is unlimited as the stock could go up and up, but I'm sure most all of the big time shorts have hedged with long term calls, which they buy every time the stock dips, thus getting them as cheaply as possible. Not sure which ones they own, but probably anywhere from $9 to $15, depending on how much risk they can handle. So, to me, their risk is the strike price of the hedged calls they own, so if they all owned $12's, the risk would be $1.32 billion (110 million x $12), plus their carrying costs (interest), less whatever it is they sold short for, and less again whatever they might get from their calls, assuming there is still time remaining on them.
Another, but non-monetary risk they have is having to endure the ridicule of Spiro and a few others on this board (ridiculed by a Greek on matters of investment and finance? That's bad, folks). I, too, will have to endure ridicule from Spiro on this front and I am preparing myself for that day of reckoning!
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Post by mannmade on Jul 13, 2015 14:43:50 GMT -5
Baba, Thanks for pointing out my math error as i never was very good with numbers which is why I originally became a lawyer instead of a doctor (Veterinarian). As for the potential upside to their losses yes I get it and probably should have mentioned it. However all good to me at this point. As Chauncey Gardiner (Chance the Gardener) once said... "I like to watch..."
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2015 15:01:10 GMT -5
I'm actually a little surprised that the shorts don't seem to ever get rattled when we have these rallies. MNKD has gone up 11% in 2 trading days. That would make me very nervous as a short. But for whatever reason, it appears that barring a change in material facts, the shorts believe there is no danger from a rally getting out of control and turning into a short squeeze. Does El Chapo get rattled when they do a small thing like put him in jail? Let's just say he has assets at his disposal most of us don't possess.
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 13, 2015 16:19:34 GMT -5
Let me first disclaim before I write my personal post about shorts and MNKD... I have never shorted a stock nor do I know the details about how it works with the "Big Boys." I am strictly a long investor who likes to buy and hold. Having said that, here are a few of my observations/thoughts about the shorts regarding mnkd: 1.) The Professional Managers of funds shorting Mnkd are likely very savvy and smart. While they may not have understood Afrezza's real value in the beginning I am confident they do now for the most part. 2.) They have a lot of money at risk. If you take a "snap shot" with the most current information, (110m shares short at a current pps of $5.65) we are looking at $621,500 at risk, although we don't know where the loss point is for them. 3.) I am assuming that the short players are a small mix of major players (just my pure speculation as not too many orgs would have the funds or assets to acquire enough of a short position to make a difference in pps from day to day) and a bunch of lessor players and retail accounts. 4.) The major players have several advantages that we as long investors do not, such as : Use of high speed Algorithms, deep research and sources legit or otherwise, use of OPM (other people's money), the ability to Hedge with Calls on the other side for the eventual upside we all see, and other tools that I am mostly unaware of. 5.) A seemingly endless ability to keep the stock in a certain price range or take it down when they look to cover (or buy more for the eventual long position some may take) 6.) The only public data we retail longs get is two weeks old at the time of publishing. 7.) The ability to cover and re-short at higher levels until it no longer makes sense. Meaning until we have solid growth numbers which will prevent (greatly lessen) their ability to take the pps down at will, (which they can do now,) I do not think it matters what the price is too much because with no substantive data to support a solid share price base, such as sales revenue numbers, the lack of real numbers is going to be their friend. Given the above, and likely many things that I have not mentioned and am unaware of, I do not think we can predict whether a short squeeze or an orderly exit by the shorts will take place. I personally would be happy with either. If we get a short squeeze as some believe then it will be fun to watch. However I personally do not plan to buy or sell as once the dust settles, b/c as mentioned, I am playing a long game with MNKD. And I do believe, as someone else recently posted, the price will come back down to earth off it's highs and settle in at the legitimate/rationale market price for the first time since I have been an investor (first shares in 2008). At that point the market will have finally spoken for itself in a rationale manner for the first time since the IPO and I believe at that point we will finally be able to make predictions that are more reliable and valid about the future. Either way, I do feel that we get closer everyday to the moment of real and rationale truth about Mannkind... GLTAL's! Well said Mannmade. I agree with most of your points. There is one point that I will dispute. I don't believe the short position can take the price down at will to cover. To take the price down, they must sell first and then hope to dupe some longs into selling so they can scoop the shares up. I really don't think that method will allow 115,0000,000 shares to be covered. The smart shorts are covering now in small lots. The others will be cooked when the share price tries to reach equilibrium. Who knows what trigger will cause that to happen.
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