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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 25, 2015 15:53:21 GMT -5
Since so many members of this forum are of the level-headed variety, I will be the one to say it. If I were Sanofi and was planning a buyout - not just of Afrezza, but the entire company - and if biotech (allow me to use you as a example) were one of my competitors (say, Novo-Nordisk) I would be grinning from ear to ear, because my plan is working. The Scenario is this: Al and I have a non-binding "gentlemen's" agreement. Al wants a 2:1 stock swap for me (Sanofi) to acquire MannKind Corporation with Afrezza, Technosphere, everything. Two Sanofi shares for each share of MNKD. That's about $100/share (Afterwards SNY will be diluted, so the deal would be around $85-$90 per MNKD share. When I made this non-binding agreement, I knew the potential for Technosphere, and convinced my BOD to let me initally launch Afrezza on a very limited scale and tightly focus on a small group of endos. This would enable me to gather information, especially physician and patient reaction (my BOD wants this info to confirm the acquisition price is a good investment) while avoiding a bidding war by fooling my competitors "biotech", "baba" and that deep-pocketed "spiro" into thinking Afrezza was struggling. It worked. None of them are bidding. They're all sitting on the sidelines, thinking they've got a year or more. They're afraid of what Technosphere might do to their market share for many drugs, so they are presently more than a little delighted over the "struggles" that I'm having selling Afrezza. Everything I suspected about Technospere is true. My BOD has given me the green light to acquire MannKind. The best part is that just before Al and I announce the acquisition, I'm going to buy millions of shares of MNKD at $5.50/share, which will defray my costs of buying the corporation at $100/share. When it's all said and done, I will have bought out MannKind for about $65-$75 a share. Unless, of course, MNKD share price can get down to $3-$4 per share. Then my average cost per share will be even lower, say $50-$65. I have had Al & team under a non-disclosure agreement for nearly a year not to release ANY information unless I approve it first. After all, I don't want pps to jump before I buy all those shares. Yessir. People are going to be stunned...but Sanofi, with Technosphere in our hands, will become the most powerful pharmaceutical company in the world. The paperwork has been ready for months. I'm not going to tell you whether the paperwork has been signed nor whether I plan to announce the acquisition at this Thursday's earnings conference... you'll just have to "stay tuned". There is so much we don't know about the relationship between MNKD and SNY. Your scenario is certainly plausible. Maybe it's bits and pieces of your scenario plus other facts that is the real story. We just don't know. What I do believe is that Mnkd and Sanofi do have a plan. A very big and very well thought out plan. And that should and does scare the hell out of their competitors. It is why I believe the short interest just won't go away. |
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Post by newmnkdinvestor on Jul 25, 2015 16:22:44 GMT -5
The rumor I heard, and what brought me to first look at MNKD as an investment was the buyout opportunity. I had heard this rumor prior to the SNY arrangement so I felt like it had legs at the time. The SNY agreement was put in place while the details of the buyout were worked on. Anyone with half a brain realizes it can take months, years to negotiate a buyout for something of this magnitude. Billionaires will fight for every inch to get more.
However now I have no clue. I am too busy to conjure up X files theories. I am to green to know the market to give my opinion about it. I do feel like we are in a similar trend to what occurred last time arnings came around and I am not expecting anything crazy. I dumped a nice amount when we hit 7 and I have been waiting to get more shares on the cheap.
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Post by mnholdem on Jul 25, 2015 17:12:52 GMT -5
If Sanofi does plan to do something like this, then the best way to drive share price to its lowest would be to make the announcement AFTER Sanofi and MannKind have their earnings calls. Lack of good information coming out of both CC's would cause the pops to tank. Then Sanofi buys millions of shares of MNKD and they make the announcement before Sanofi has to file the share purchase with the SEC. Okay, now back to my regularly scheduled program of advocating steady growth for both Afrezza and the company, then multiple partners for Technosphere drugs over the next several years.  |
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Post by ashiwi on Jul 25, 2015 18:42:36 GMT -5
Great story. Always fun to speculate good stuff after such a bad week.
Can someone give me a good answer as to why so many short shares And what will it take for them to go away?
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Post by mannmade on Jul 25, 2015 19:08:08 GMT -5
If Sanofi does plan to do something like this, then the best way to drive share price to its lowest would be to make the announcement AFTER Sanofi and MannKind have their earnings calls. Lack of good information coming out of both CC's would cause the pops to tank. Then Sanofi buys millions of shares of MNKD and they make the announcement before Sanofi has to file the share purchase with the SEC. Okay, now back to my regularly scheduled program of advocating steady growth for both Afrezza and the company, then multiple partners for Technosphere drugs over the next several years. With all due respect and imho then why not simply do this when stock was in the $3's as it was not that long ago. I honestly don't know what Sanofi will do but I doubt they will buy Mnkd or Afrezza at this point in time.  |
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Post by lynn on Jul 25, 2015 19:42:29 GMT -5
In reference to Mannmade's comment & JMHO as well .
I'm aware of Al Mann's history of selling his companies , but this is the First one that has his name on it . He is 89/90 years young and everyone ( I feel him in particular ) wants to leave something behind to be remembered for ( be it children , grand children or as the Mann who revolutionized modern day medicine) For me, I'd be surprised if he sold the only company that's ever bared his name . I believe his Vision re : Mannkind was created with the intention that it will Live way beyond his Mortal Life .
Lynn
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Post by mnholdem on Jul 25, 2015 19:46:28 GMT -5
No doubt there are enough holes in this theory to sink it. To be completely honest with everybody, though, I simply do not believe sales of Afrezza can possibly be this low if it were not intentional. If it's intentional on Sanofi's part then, naturally, the problem-solver that dominates my thinking keeps asking, "Why"?
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Post by mannmade on Jul 25, 2015 20:01:53 GMT -5
Again imho if Sanofi were trying to keep the price down on purpose to buy mnkd then they have already had plenty of opportunity as they surely have understood the value from all of their research during DD prior to the Agreement w Mnkd. They are after all the "ultimate insider."
Also as has been pointed out earlier on this board, in this day and age no secret is safe. And if/when this got out not only would it be grounds for a huge law suit no company would ever partner w Sanofi.
And there is a 5 yr "stand still" clause in the agreement so mnkd would have to approve and this is where I think Lynn's point is spot on.
Lastly it is quite inconsistent w everything Matt has said recently about pipeline development and wanting to be known as a real pharma company w real products not just a technology company.
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Post by mssciguy on Jul 25, 2015 20:17:54 GMT -5
No doubt there are enough holes in this theory to sink it. To be completely honest with everybody, though, I simply do not believe sales of Afrezza can possibly be this low if it were not intentional. If it's intentional on Sanofi's part then, naturally, the problem-solver that dominates my thinking keeps asking, "Why"?
Several factors are at play here, and for sure Toujeo and Afrezza are being introduced and marketed simultaneously. They are also complementary. The injectables have been around for decades and have precedents in the billing systems, insurance systems, delivery systems, regulations. Much easier to launch. So, my guess is that Sanofi launched the sure thing first. You have to have money coming into the business to help fund the more innovative product (which has plenty of patent life to get blockbuster status and pay for itself many times over).
From what I have read here and elsewhere, Sanofi outbidded Novo to get Afrezza. This is a very serious and competitive business, and Sanofi is playing to win....
Much more to the story and this is one of the most interesting biotechs ever on so many different levels. |
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Post by mbseeking on Jul 25, 2015 23:35:01 GMT -5
Its funny how we are under pressure we tend to see what we want to see. I'm long MNKD and in awe of the product. But Friday's 8% price drop was a shock. Were sales (TRX ) really THAT disappointing?
For whatever reason I've been pivoting off wk4 Symphony data. (Need to get a few weeks from Wk 0 to do calcs on). TRX then was 113 units. The latest result is 5.25 months since then producing a compound growth rate of 1.32% / mth. If you extrapolate that 24 months from wk4 you get 1.32 ^ 24 x 113 = 88k TRX , which I'm assuming by multiplying by 13 is 1.1 user base by that time frame.
Personally I would like to see 1.5-2M users by that timeframe to validate Afrezza. To get to 2M users by wk 28 we need a growth rate of 35%. It wont take much to nudge it back to that. Next week is month 5.5 (from wk 4) so against my 2M track then 1.35 ^ 5.5 x 113 = 588 TRX.
Yes we've slipped below a bit.. but with advertising just starting ever so slowly , this feels more like the SHORT brigade have a bash on that slip.
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Post by mssciguy on Jul 26, 2015 6:59:04 GMT -5
Its funny how we are under pressure we tend to see what we want to see. I'm long MNKD and in awe of the product. But Friday's 8% price drop was a shock. Were sales (TRX ) really THAT disappointing? For whatever reason I've been pivoting off wk4 Symphony data. (Need to get a few weeks from Wk 0 to do calcs on). TRX then was 113 units. The latest result is 5.25 months since then producing a compound growth rate of 1.32% / mth. If you extrapolate that 24 months from wk4 you get 1.32 ^ 24 x 113 = 88k TRX , which I'm assuming by multiplying by 13 is 1.1 user base by that time frame. Personally I would like to see 1.5-2M users by that timeframe to validate Afrezza. To get to 2M users by wk 28 we need a growth rate of 35%. It wont take much to nudge it back to that. Next week is month 5.5 (from wk 4) so against my 2M track then 1.35 ^ 5.5 x 113 = 588 TRX. Yes we've slipped below a bit.. but with advertising just starting ever so slowly , this feels more like the SHORT brigade have a bash on that slip. Not to get completely off topic, but much of cognitive science says we always see what we want to see (or what's useful to see). Want to see what shorts see, take a look at ymb today. It is crawling with short vermin. They are posting under multiple accounts/user names that the Time magazine ad rumor is fake. I'll stop by the library to hold it in my own two hands for a while later today. FUD works. From what I read (wikipedia maybe) it was invented by sales teams marketing computers and software many years ago (you REALLY need this new hardware to be competitive or YOU WON'T survive) and now it's wormed into politics, stock manipulation, marketing of all kinds--- look around, you'll see it everywhere. ============ We've all been waiting for this DTC and the more reliable numbers you are seeking may be revealed in just a few weeks. But what I'll be watching will be trends.google.com |
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Jul 26, 2015 8:08:01 GMT -5
In reference to Mannmade's comment & JMHO as well . I'm aware of Al Mann's history of selling his companies , but this is the First one that has his name on it . He is 89/90 years young and everyone ( I feel him in particular ) wants to leave something behind to be remembered for ( be it children , grand children or as the Mann who revolutionized modern day medicine) For me, I'd be surprised if he sold the only company that's ever bared his name . I believe his Vision re : Mannkind was created with the intention that it will Live way beyond his Mortal Life . Lynn Lynn, charities will get Al's shares/wealth should he die. Not his kids. He actually has commented his kids will get nothing because he was too generous to them growing up. www.forbes.com/forbes/2006/1009/064.html |
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Post by suebeeee1 on Jul 26, 2015 17:14:35 GMT -5
Lynn, charities will get Al's shares/wealth should he die. Not his kids. He actually has commented his kids will get nothing because he was too generous to them growing up. www.forbes.com/forbes/2006/1009/064.htmlThis it the first time I have seen this article. Once again, it appears that our "Mann" Al it's brilliant beyond words. I've taught in universities and realize that the research grant system is simply a way of increasing the salary of a professor that the university wants to keep, without breaking the bank, or having to amend the entire paltry salary system for professors. However, it appears that very little actual is materialized from these "research grants". No research is done. No product is produced. Nada. All Mann simply wants to oversee this process for the few years he has left. So what?. In the long run, the universities will go back to their own ways after he is gone. Or.... Perhaps he is trying to influence their long term thinking and help them discover that SHOULD they actually review real proposals for merit, the schools may have increased revenue from patients forever?. Can't set that kind of precedence! |
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Post by mnholdem on Jul 26, 2015 19:12:57 GMT -5
In reference to Mannmade's comment & JMHO as well . I'm aware of Al Mann's history of selling his companies , but this is the First one that has his name on it . He is 89/90 years young and everyone ( I feel him in particular ) wants to leave something behind to be remembered for ( be it children , grand children or as the Mann who revolutionized modern day medicine) For me, I'd be surprised if he sold the only company that's ever bared his name . I believe his Vision re : Mannkind was created with the intention that it will Live way beyond his Mortal Life . Lynn Lynn, charities will get Al's shares/wealth should he die. Not his kids. He actually has commented his kids will get nothing because he was too generous to them growing up. www.forbes.com/forbes/2006/1009/064.htmlI believe this is clarified in a 10-Q. The bulk of Al Mann's shares go to the Alfred Mann Foundation, where I think three of Al's children sit on the Board of Directors. The old man was wise in training his children that they can make a difference in this world, although he does have one or two kids who will not be getting any inheritance. I don't remember the reason, but I remember reading about it long ago. |
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Post by newmnkdinvestor on Jul 27, 2015 10:13:28 GMT -5
Great story. Always fun to speculate good stuff after such a bad week. Can someone give me a good answer as to why so many short shares And what will it take for them to go away? AT this time Why would they go away. There's no reason too. My cousin owns a mutual fund. he hated how over weight I was on this stock. He told me you dont invest large sums of money in twitter reviews. I am learning how to hanlde this stock. Dont look at it at all. Buy and sell on the dips and dont be over weight. It makes the volatility a little easier. |
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