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Post by patryn on Jul 27, 2015 10:55:01 GMT -5
Great story. Always fun to speculate good stuff after such a bad week. Can someone give me a good answer as to why so many short shares And what will it take for them to go away? AT this time Why would they go away. There's no reason too. My cousin owns a mutual fund. he hated how over weight I was on this stock. He told me you dont invest large sums of money in twitter reviews. I am learning how to hanlde this stock. Dont look at it at all. Buy and sell on the dips and dont be over weight. It makes the volatility a little easier. There's never a reason for shorts to go away even after a product has proven to be successful. Shorts are not one entity, but rather a collection of individuals with their own agendas, timelines, and tolerance for risk. One need only look at Tesla or Apple and realize that there are people willing to short companies that are "proven" success stories. That said, my take on investing has always been to ask myself the question - do I need this money in the next 5 years for some sort of life event? Yes - why the heck is it invested in a volatile biotech? No - then stop watching the day to day or even month to month fluctuations on the stock price except when I would like to buy more shares. It's good to check my investment thesis once or twice a year to make sure that the original reasons I invested in a company are still valid. Ground breaking product check, experienced marketing partner check, ability to withstand a year or more of liquidity events check. Nothing has changed this month in relation to where we were last month. I know that people don't like being told to be patient, so I will just say rather than be patient, go live your life and stop thinking about stocks. You don't need this money for the next while, so stop obsessing about it. I for one didn't even know we had these minor fluctuations in stock price because I was a bit busy climbing the face of Half Dome and proposing to my girlfriend last week.  With Picture  On the Face of Half Dome I came back this morning to check the board and nothing in my life has changed from the week previous. The world is not ending so enjoy every moment while you can and stop letting short term manipulators ruin your moods. |
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Post by newmnkdinvestor on Jul 27, 2015 11:07:44 GMT -5
Congrats on the proposing. You make many valid points. I think we agree on a lot you just took the time to explain better lol.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 27, 2015 11:08:14 GMT -5
Lynn, charities will get Al's shares/wealth should he die. Not his kids. He actually has commented his kids will get nothing because he was too generous to them growing up. www.forbes.com/forbes/2006/1009/064.htmlThis it the first time I have seen this article. Once again, it appears that our "Mann" Al it's brilliant beyond words. I've taught in universities and realize that the research grant system is simply a way of increasing the salary of a professor that the university wants to keep, without breaking the bank, or having to amend the entire paltry salary system for professors. However, it appears that very little actual is materialized from these "research grants". No research is done. No product is produced. Nada. All Mann simply wants to oversee this process for the few years he has left. So what?. In the long run, the universities will go back to their own ways after he is gone. Or.... Perhaps he is trying to influence their long term thinking and help them discover that SHOULD they actually review real proposals for merit, the schools may have increased revenue from patients forever?. Can't set that kind of precedence! Al offered several hundred million to UCLA but it had to be structured as an institute with a real mission of productizing research. The entire UC system has mounds of red tape that seem to be constructed to hinder that, and they would not entertain the concept of an institute freed from them. So several hundred million walked across town to USC. |
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Post by Chris-C on Jul 27, 2015 12:59:07 GMT -5
AT this time Why would they go away. There's no reason too. My cousin owns a mutual fund. he hated how over weight I was on this stock. He told me you dont invest large sums of money in twitter reviews. I am learning how to hanlde this stock. Dont look at it at all. Buy and sell on the dips and dont be over weight. It makes the volatility a little easier. There's never a reason for shorts to go away even after a product has proven to be successful. Shorts are not one entity, but rather a collection of individuals with their own agendas, timelines, and tolerance for risk. One need only look at Tesla or Apple and realize that there are people willing to short companies that are "proven" success stories. That said, my take on investing has always been to ask myself the question - do I need this money in the next 5 years for some sort of life event? Yes - why the heck is it invested in a volatile biotech? No - then stop watching the day to day or even month to month fluctuations on the stock price except when I would like to buy more shares. It's good to check my investment thesis once or twice a year to make sure that the original reasons I invested in a company are still valid. Ground breaking product check, experienced marketing partner check, ability to withstand a year or more of liquidity events check. Nothing has changed this month in relation to where we were last month. I know that people don't like being told to be patient, so I will just say rather than be patient, go live your life and stop thinking about stocks. You don't need this money for the next while, so stop obsessing about it. I for one didn't even know we had these minor fluctuations in stock price because I was a bit busy climbing the face of Half Dome and proposing to my girlfriend last week. With Picture On the Face of Half Dome I came back this morning to check the board and nothing in my life has changed from the week previous. The world is not ending so enjoy every moment while you can and stop letting short term manipulators ruin your moods. Congrats Patryn! You were obviously having a great time NOT thinking about Mannkind last week! Your advice is sound. The photo of the two of you waving at the summit will be a great photo keepsake for years to come. Much happiness to you- and investing success, of course! Chris |
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Post by factspls88 on Jul 27, 2015 13:41:34 GMT -5
I wouldnt be surprised if August turns out to be another non-event for Mannkind. 1. Paying off or refinancing or restructuring the debt is well anticipated on Wall Street. The so called BofA 9,000,000 short shares, which may or may not be returned, is not a significant percentage of the outstanding short interest to have much more than a short term effect. 2. The growth of Afrezza users is at best disappointing and until there is an much larger sustained weekly increase in the Nrx numbers (at least 10-15% weekly for at least a couple months), it is not likely we will see much of a turning point. Unless Sanofi announces a major DTC advertising program (television and print), it is hard to believe that significant Nrx increases can be achieved. 3. The Quarterly report from Mnkd will not show any Balance Sheet improvement. What it will show is less Balance Sheet deterioration. 4. Matt has said that future Technosphere plans will be kept under wraps until IP can be protected, therefore I expect more of the same (lack of transparency) until at least the November CC and more probably the February 2016 CC. TREND The fact that DTC advertising has begun suggests to me that Sanofi is comfortable enough with the progress that has been made in covering the medical community to make the ad buy. I'd venture to guess that TIME has strong distribution in doctors' offices, so diabetics exposed to the ad in doctors' waiting rooms will be able to ask about Afrezza on the spot. I don't believe SNY would risk irritating a significant number of doctors by running the ads before enough critical mass amongst them had been achieved. |
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 27, 2015 14:19:42 GMT -5
I wouldnt be surprised if August turns out to be another non-event for Mannkind. 1. Paying off or refinancing or restructuring the debt is well anticipated on Wall Street. The so called BofA 9,000,000 short shares, which may or may not be returned, is not a significant percentage of the outstanding short interest to have much more than a short term effect. 2. The growth of Afrezza users is at best disappointing and until there is an much larger sustained weekly increase in the Nrx numbers (at least 10-15% weekly for at least a couple months), it is not likely we will see much of a turning point. Unless Sanofi announces a major DTC advertising program (television and print), it is hard to believe that significant Nrx increases can be achieved. 3. The Quarterly report from Mnkd will not show any Balance Sheet improvement. What it will show is less Balance Sheet deterioration. 4. Matt has said that future Technosphere plans will be kept under wraps until IP can be protected, therefore I expect more of the same (lack of transparency) until at least the November CC and more probably the February 2016 CC. TREND The fact that DTC advertising has begun suggests to me that Sanofi is comfortable enough with the progress that has been made in covering the medical community to make the ad buy. I'd venture to guess that TIME has strong distribution in doctors' offices, so diabetics exposed to the ad in doctors' waiting rooms will be able to ask about Afrezza on the spot. I don't believe SNY would risk irritating a significant number of doctors by running the ads before enough critical mass amongst them had been achieved. The time magazine ad is important but not earth shaking. But like factspls88 states, it shows confidence from Sanofi that they want to take the next step in their plan. We will continue to see these little milestones reached. It's all very positive. It's just that the current share price sucks. The pps will change for the better soon. IMHO |
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Post by mnholdem on Jul 27, 2015 15:32:06 GMT -5
Patryn, You never told us if she answered, "yes" so I cannot yet determine whether congrats are in order. I've heard many ways that men have proposed, but hearing that a guy proposed while clinging to a rock face would be a first for me, although probably not the safest place to announce your intentions.  |
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Post by BlueCat on Jul 27, 2015 19:00:06 GMT -5
Patryn, You never told us if she answered, "yes" so I cannot yet determine whether congrats are in order. I've heard many ways that men have proposed, but hearing that a guy proposed while clinging to a rock face would be a first for me, although probably not the safest place to announce your intentions. Certainly a way to keep your options front 'n center though ….. |
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Post by suebeeee1 on Jul 27, 2015 23:40:34 GMT -5
Congrats Patryn!. Now you are really the definition of a risk taker!. (But not for the proposal)
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Post by patryn on Jul 28, 2015 18:30:02 GMT -5
Patryn, You never told us if she answered, "yes" so I cannot yet determine whether congrats are in order. I've heard many ways that men have proposed, but hearing that a guy proposed while clinging to a rock face would be a first for me, although probably not the safest place to announce your intentions. She said yes I stacked the deck in my favor with the adrenaline and endorphins flowing around, I figured I had a pretty good shot. |
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Post by patryn on Jul 28, 2015 18:30:24 GMT -5
Congrats Patryn!. Now you are really the definition of a risk taker!. (But not for the proposal) Thank you! Now you know why I don't get worried about the minor risk of owning MNKD shares |
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Post by newmnkdinvestor on Jul 28, 2015 18:37:35 GMT -5
Its nice to see something as far as an ad is concerned. However its just an ad in a magazine. The cost for Sanofi is chump change.
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Post by trenddiver on Aug 26, 2015 23:41:48 GMT -5
The biotech investment world is always focused on the next catalyst that will drive their favorite stock to the moon. We wait with baited breath for the next great news and are either overjoyed at the news or overly disappointed when the news doesn't meet our amped up expectations. A stock then gets driven up or down. Unfortunately, Mannkind stock is deeply mired in this repetitive cycle. It is worse for Mnkd because this cycle is being exacerbated by intense short interest. Will this ever change?
I believe it will and I believe that change will begin next month. Matt Pfeffer, Mnkd CFO, has mentioned on different occasions that he wants the company to be known for delivering on its promises. Therefore, Mnkd has tried to give out news that is newsworthy and not get caught up in announcing every little bit of news. This has frustrated many investors who believe the only way for this stock to go up is to have that next bit of news drive the stock up. Mnkd management is trying to break that cycle and change Wallstreet's view that this company is still a biotech start up that is hanging on for dear life. They are not. In fact, I have noticed small things that show me they are maturing as a company. I don't know if many on this board have noticed, but Mnkd quietly adopted the same approach Sanofi uses for making presentations. They now use Powerpoint slides for their presentations. I remember so many Mnkd quarterly conference calls where there was nothing to look at. Sanofi has very professional presentations and Mnkd has adopted that approach. Mnkd is a company that is maturing and morphing into a long term big Pharma company. Mnkd is being careful not to make any promises they cannot deliver on, a good approach in my book.
So why August? I believe that there will be enough cumulative news from Sanofi and Mannkind to convince Wallstreet that Mnkd is a force to be reckoned with. Notice how I did not mention Afrezza as force to be reckoned with, but the company. Mnkd is so much more than just Afrezza. Can you say Technosphere? The following list of news that I believe we will hear that should help show that Mnkd is here to stay:
1. $100 Million Convertible Notes Issue will be resolved one way or the other. I believe the terms will just be renegotiated. Just like any other big company would handle it.
2. The Quarterly Report from Sanofi will be positive. It will show that income from Afrezza has grown from the previous quarter by several times or more. Perhaps we will get a surprise and Sanofi will speak more about several items like a launch in another country, DTC advertising, and other plans for Afrezza.
3. The Quarterly Report from Mnkd will be positive. The balance sheet will continue to show improvement. It will show lower expenses and revenue from Afrezza sales. Also, I believe there will be further clarification on Technosphere plans.
At some point, bigger players on Wallstreet will recognize the amazingly positive risk/reward profile that can be found in Mannkind stock. Once this happens, the short players will no longer be able to control the stock price. Once the stock price cannot be held down, then there is blood in the water and the sharks will eat their own. I believe August will be the turning point.
Sorry to bring up old business but this prediction was one of the worst we've seen. With 3 trading days left in the month, the share price is down nearly 40% since the date of your prediction ($5.46). Every reason given to support your conclusion was also wrong. I'm afraid forecasting is not your forte. trend |
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Post by jpg on Aug 27, 2015 0:03:52 GMT -5
trenddiver
Somehow you don't seem sorry to 'bring up old business'. So what is your prediction trend? I do agree making short term predictions in biotech (and stocks at large) is pointless and financially dangerous (which is why I continuously groan against retail buying short term synthetic instruments) but at the same time what is your point really? What your 'forte'? I would love an answer. Like I think some have told you before: you have lost trust so sell and move on maybe? You will feel a lot better. Biotech is hard and especially hard on the nerves (and pocket book: how to make a small fortune in biotech?).
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Post by trenddiver on Aug 27, 2015 0:32:46 GMT -5
trenddiver
Somehow you don't seem sorry to 'bring up old business'. So what is your prediction trend? I do agree making short term predictions in biotech (and stocks at large) is pointless and financially dangerous (which is why I continuously groan against retail buying short term synthetic instruments) but at the same time what is your point really? What your 'forte'? I would love an answer. Like I think some have told you before: you have lost trust so sell and move on maybe? You will feel a lot better. Biotech is hard and especially hard on the nerves (and pocket book: how to make a small fortune in biotech?). Do you have a point of view about the original thread post and the assertions made? As for me, I make no predictions other than the next 3 or 4 months are critical and I'm not buying nor am I selling. Also, I think I'm going to stop looking at the pathetic weekly script counts. |
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I stacked the deck in my favor with the adrenaline and endorphins flowing around, I figured I had a pretty good shot.