|
|
Post by patryn on Aug 27, 2015 10:26:46 GMT -5
trenddiver
Somehow you don't seem sorry to 'bring up old business'. So what is your prediction trend? I do agree making short term predictions in biotech (and stocks at large) is pointless and financially dangerous (which is why I continuously groan against retail buying short term synthetic instruments) but at the same time what is your point really? What your 'forte'? I would love an answer. Like I think some have told you before: you have lost trust so sell and move on maybe? You will feel a lot better. Biotech is hard and especially hard on the nerves (and pocket book: how to make a small fortune in biotech?). Do you have a point of view about the original thread post and the assertions made? As for me, I make no predictions other than the next 3 or 4 months are critical and I'm not buying nor am I selling. Also, I think I'm going to stop looking at the pathetic weekly script counts. I think that's a great idea. Watching grass grow is not a healthy obsession. Watching the day to day stock price movements or script growth will probably drive you nuts. Without information from MNKD or SNY about actual strategy, the incomplete data will likely be interpreted poorly. As for my forecasting, my magic 8 ball says, September will be a good month. |
|
|
|
Post by bradleysbest on Aug 27, 2015 11:30:47 GMT -5
Of what year?
|
|
|
|
Post by mssciguy on Aug 27, 2015 11:39:49 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Aug 27, 2015 12:38:23 GMT -5
Do you have a point of view about the original thread post and the assertions made? As for me, I make no predictions other than the next 3 or 4 months are critical and I'm not buying nor am I selling. Also, I think I'm going to stop looking at the pathetic weekly script counts. I think that's a great idea. Watching grass grow is not a healthy obsession. Watching the day to day stock price movements or script growth will probably drive you nuts. Without information from MNKD or SNY about actual strategy, the incomplete data will likely be interpreted poorly. As for my forecasting, my magic 8 ball says, September will be a good month. I would take the Magic 8 ball's predictions over Matt Pfeffer's any day. |
|
|
|
Post by patryn on Aug 27, 2015 12:57:50 GMT -5
I think that's a great idea. Watching grass grow is not a healthy obsession. Watching the day to day stock price movements or script growth will probably drive you nuts. Without information from MNKD or SNY about actual strategy, the incomplete data will likely be interpreted poorly. As for my forecasting, my magic 8 ball says, September will be a good month. I would take the Magic 8 ball's predictions over Matt Pfeffer's any day. I take comfort in the fact that a fantastic product will overcome any management missteps. In my industry, if you have a terrible product, it takes a combination of sales, marketing, implementation and support triage to maintain and grow a customer base. With a great product, you could have an inept sales team, almost no marketing, no support or implementation, but still have success because that's what matters at the end of the day. As long as MNKD doesn't go bankrupt or do some crazy dilution to keep the doors open, it objectively has a great product and it is only a matter of time before the product overcomes all the other barriers to entry both external and internal. It may take longer than most investors want to wait, but alas, that is what great management is able to change is the timing and trajectory of the product evangelism - not whether it will ultimately succeed or fail - that is almost always a result of the merits of the product. |
|
|
|
Post by centralcoastinvestor on Aug 30, 2015 11:48:42 GMT -5
Sorry to bring up old business but this prediction was one of the worst we've seen. With 3 trading days left in the month, the share price is down nearly 40% since the date of your prediction ($5.46). Every reason given to support your conclusion was also wrong. I'm afraid forecasting is not your forte.
trend
Alas, trenddiver is correct in that my prediction of a turn around in the stock in August did not come to pass. I beg to differ on the worst we've seen comment. I knew I was sticking my neck out when I wrote this prediction back in late July. I am willing to take my lumps (LOL) for making that prediction and being wrong. I wanted to quickly review my three main news events that I thought would change the pps for good.
1. $100 Million Convertible Notes Issue will be resolved one way or the other. I believe the terms will just be renegotiated. Just like any other big company would handle it. (As George Rho mentioned in one his articles in Seek Alpha, the handling of the Convertible notes was clumsy. I thought Mnkd would handle this cleanly and efficiently. Instead, the conversion process opened up new opportunities for manipulation. Short interest rose from 112,846,501 on 7/15/15 to 121,777,505 on 8/14/15. Making it impossible to convert above the floor. Which is exactly what the dark forces wanted.)
2. The Quarterly Report from Sanofi will be positive. It will show that income from Afrezza has grown from the previous quarter by several times or more. Perhaps we will get a surprise and Sanofi will speak more about several items like a launch in another country, DTC advertising, and other plans for Afrezza. (This prediction is where I missed badly. Sanofi didn't even mention Afrezza or Mnkd at all. Ouch.)
3. The Quarterly Report from Mnkd will be positive. The balance sheet will continue to show improvement. It will show lower expenses and revenue from Afrezza sales. Also, I believe there will be further clarification on Technosphere plans. (On this prediction, I believe I was actually correct. The cost of doing business dropped dramatically for Mnkd. For the first six months of 2015, operating expenses were $45.8 million, a decline of 58.8% compared to the same period in 2014. This is good news. I was hoping for more news on TS but didn't get that.)
Needless to say, I will not be giving up my day job to council people on how to invest. And I may get brave enough again to make another prediction in the future. But as Spiro said, I will have to come out from under my desk first. The one bright spot, I have one more day for the share price to take off in August. (I am eternally optimistic.)
|
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Aug 30, 2015 12:33:26 GMT -5
Well, CCI, I was going to say you're giving up too soon, but you covered that in your last sentence.  Your post turned out to engender much discussion, and that's always good. As far as your predictive first post and your apologetic/analytic last post, welcome to the world of those with 20/20 hindsight! We've all been there, and many more times than we'd bother to admit (or remember, for that matter, as the memory can be quite selective). Hey, at least you did go out on a limb, and rest assured, many here agreed with your prediction for August being a key month for MNKD; turned out to be quite a month for the stock market in general, though, thank goodness I had a good supply of Dramamine on hand for that. I find, that with this stock and a few others I follow closely (and in which I am over-invested), being a glass half full type of guy really can bolster your batting average in terms of month to month predictions. If I can't make money, then at least I sure as hell can make better predictions! I'll look forward to your next prediction, CCI, you're a fine poster, and that was a fine post immediately above! |
|
|
|
Post by bradleysbest on Aug 31, 2015 0:15:29 GMT -5
I am currently working on my prediction, What year will the MNKD squeeze begin? I am crunching numbers now & am leaning to 2017 or 2020 (20-20 hindsight).
|
|
|
|
Post by mannmade on Aug 31, 2015 1:36:17 GMT -5
Actually August was a turning point of sorts... It just took the wrong turn...  |
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Aug 31, 2015 1:43:00 GMT -5
Sorry to bring up old business but this prediction was one of the worst we've seen. With 3 trading days left in the month, the share price is down nearly 40% since the date of your prediction ($5.46). Every reason given to support your conclusion was also wrong. I'm afraid forecasting is not your forte. trend Alas, trenddiver is correct in that my prediction of a turn around in the stock in August did not come to pass. I beg to differ on the worst we've seen comment. I knew I was sticking my neck out when I wrote this prediction back in late July. I am willing to take my lumps (LOL) for making that prediction and being wrong. I wanted to quickly review my three main news events that I thought would change the pps for good. 1. $100 Million Convertible Notes Issue will be resolved one way or the other. I believe the terms will just be renegotiated. Just like any other big company would handle it. (As George Rho mentioned in one his articles in Seek Alpha, the handling of the Convertible notes was clumsy. I thought Mnkd would handle this cleanly and efficiently. Instead, the conversion process opened up new opportunities for manipulation. Short interest rose from 112,846,501 on 7/15/15 to 121,777,505 on 8/14/15. Making it impossible to convert above the floor. Which is exactly what the dark forces wanted.) 2. The Quarterly Report from Sanofi will be positive. It will show that income from Afrezza has grown from the previous quarter by several times or more. Perhaps we will get a surprise and Sanofi will speak more about several items like a launch in another country, DTC advertising, and other plans for Afrezza. (This prediction is where I missed badly. Sanofi didn't even mention Afrezza or Mnkd at all. Ouch.) 3. The Quarterly Report from Mnkd will be positive. The balance sheet will continue to show improvement. It will show lower expenses and revenue from Afrezza sales. Also, I believe there will be further clarification on Technosphere plans. (On this prediction, I believe I was actually correct. The cost of doing business dropped dramatically for Mnkd. For the first six months of 2015, operating expenses were $45.8 million, a decline of 58.8% compared to the same period in 2014. This is good news. I was hoping for more news on TS but didn't get that.) Needless to say, I will not be giving up my day job to council people on how to invest. And I may get brave enough again to make another prediction in the future. But as Spiro said, I will have to come out from under my desk first. The one bright spot, I have one more day for the share price to take off in August. (I am eternally optimistic.) CCI. Well it's looks like you are sticking out your neck again, so I feel compelled to respond with my own comments and predictions. 1. Since I have no confidence in Matt Pfeffer, nothing good will come out of the renegotiation of he Convertible Debt. MNKD will be forced to pay the debt in cash or there will be another short term extension. (Exactly what the dark forces want). 2. Sanofi again will not mention or speak very little about Afrezza. I would be worried that if they do talk about Afrezza, it'll be in the context of reevaluating their partnerships. 3. Unless there is some dramatic increase in weekly scripts or some major breakthrough with the lack of insurance coverage for Afrezza over the next couple of months, the Quarterly Report will be deemed by the street as negative. The Balance Sheet will continue to show deterioration (more losses and less cash). This will be played up by the shorts as "dilution just around the corner". Because of where future Technosphere opportunities are in the developmental cycle, I don't expect any news that will be positively interpreted until the first quarter of 2016, at the earliest. JMHO Trend |
|
|
|
Post by kbrion77 on Aug 31, 2015 11:32:31 GMT -5
Uptick trade ratio at 1.38 with a net money flow of positive $290,979 for the day yet down 2.5%, just another day for MNKD!!!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by cretin11 on Aug 31, 2015 20:23:01 GMT -5
Uptick trade ratio at 1.38 with a net money flow of positive $290,979 for the day yet down 2.5%, just another day for MNKD!!!!! what is meant by net money flow? |
|
|
|
Post by centralcoastinvestor on Aug 31, 2015 23:58:56 GMT -5
Well, CCI, I was going to say you're giving up too soon, but you covered that in your last sentence. Your post turned out to engender much discussion, and that's always good. As far as your predictive first post and your apologetic/analytic last post, welcome to the world of those with 20/20 hindsight! We've all been there, and many more times than we'd bother to admit (or remember, for that matter, as the memory can be quite selective). Hey, at least you did go out on a limb, and rest assured, many here agreed with your prediction for August being a key month for MNKD; turned out to be quite a month for the stock market in general, though, thank goodness I had a good supply of Dramamine on hand for that. I find, that with this stock and a few others I follow closely (and in which I am over-invested), being a glass half full type of guy really can bolster your batting average in terms of month to month predictions. If I can't make money, then at least I sure as hell can make better predictions! I'll look forward to your next prediction, CCI, you're a fine poster, and that was a fine post immediately above! Babaoriley, I wanted to thank you for your kind words. I can't begin to tell you how much I have learned from this board and honestly from the YMB. There are many, many wise investor/posters out there with lots of knowledge to share. You just have to get good at who to listen too. LOL |
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Nov 11, 2015 0:17:44 GMT -5
Sorry to bring up old business but this prediction was one of the worst we've seen. With 3 trading days left in the month, the share price is down nearly 40% since the date of your prediction ($5.46). Every reason given to support your conclusion was also wrong. I'm afraid forecasting is not your forte. trend Alas, trenddiver is correct in that my prediction of a turn around in the stock in August did not come to pass. I beg to differ on the worst we've seen comment. I knew I was sticking my neck out when I wrote this prediction back in late July. I am willing to take my lumps (LOL) for making that prediction and being wrong. I wanted to quickly review my three main news events that I thought would change the pps for good. 1. $100 Million Convertible Notes Issue will be resolved one way or the other. I believe the terms will just be renegotiated. Just like any other big company would handle it. (As George Rho mentioned in one his articles in Seek Alpha, the handling of the Convertible notes was clumsy. I thought Mnkd would handle this cleanly and efficiently. Instead, the conversion process opened up new opportunities for manipulation. Short interest rose from 112,846,501 on 7/15/15 to 121,777,505 on 8/14/15. Making it impossible to convert above the floor. Which is exactly what the dark forces wanted.) 2. The Quarterly Report from Sanofi will be positive. It will show that income from Afrezza has grown from the previous quarter by several times or more. Perhaps we will get a surprise and Sanofi will speak more about several items like a launch in another country, DTC advertising, and other plans for Afrezza. (This prediction is where I missed badly. Sanofi didn't even mention Afrezza or Mnkd at all. Ouch.) 3. The Quarterly Report from Mnkd will be positive. The balance sheet will continue to show improvement. It will show lower expenses and revenue from Afrezza sales. Also, I believe there will be further clarification on Technosphere plans. (On this prediction, I believe I was actually correct. The cost of doing business dropped dramatically for Mnkd. For the first six months of 2015, operating expenses were $45.8 million, a decline of 58.8% compared to the same period in 2014. This is good news. I was hoping for more news on TS but didn't get that.) Needless to say, I will not be giving up my day job to council people on how to invest. And I may get brave enough again to make another prediction in the future. But as Spiro said, I will have to come out from under my desk first. The one bright spot, I have one more day for the share price to take off in August. (I am eternally optimistic.) CCI. Well it's looks like you are sticking out your neck again, so I feel compelled to respond with my own comments and predictions. 1. Since I have no confidence in Matt Pfeffer, nothing good will come out of the renegotiation of he Convertible Debt. MNKD will be forced to pay the debt in cash or there will be another short term extension. (Exactly what the dark forces want). 2. Sanofi again will not mention or speak very little about Afrezza. I would be worried that if they do talk about Afrezza, it'll be in the context of reevaluating their partnerships. 3. Unless there is some dramatic increase in weekly scripts or some major breakthrough with the lack of insurance coverage for Afrezza over the next couple of months, the Quarterly Report will be deemed by the street as negative. The Balance Sheet will continue to show deterioration (more losses and less cash). This will be played up by the shorts as "dilution just around the corner". Because of where future Technosphere opportunities are in the developmental cycle, I don't expect any news that will be positively interpreted until the first quarter of 2016, at the earliest. JMHO Trend Wish I would have acted on my own forecast. It cost me and most other longs a lot of money the way things turned out. Trend |
|
|
|
Post by patryn on Nov 11, 2015 0:24:54 GMT -5
CCI. Well it's looks like you are sticking out your neck again, so I feel compelled to respond with my own comments and predictions. 1. Since I have no confidence in Matt Pfeffer, nothing good will come out of the renegotiation of he Convertible Debt. MNKD will be forced to pay the debt in cash or there will be another short term extension. (Exactly what the dark forces want). 2. Sanofi again will not mention or speak very little about Afrezza. I would be worried that if they do talk about Afrezza, it'll be in the context of reevaluating their partnerships. 3. Unless there is some dramatic increase in weekly scripts or some major breakthrough with the lack of insurance coverage for Afrezza over the next couple of months, the Quarterly Report will be deemed by the street as negative. The Balance Sheet will continue to show deterioration (more losses and less cash). This will be played up by the shorts as "dilution just around the corner". Because of where future Technosphere opportunities are in the developmental cycle, I don't expect any news that will be positively interpreted until the first quarter of 2016, at the earliest. JMHO Trend Wish I would have acted on my own forecast. It cost me and most other longs a lot of money the way things turned out. Trend The story is not over. You don't lose money unless you sell. Hindsight has always been 20/20 and there are many coulda, woulda, shoulda things we've all regretted in our lives. It doesn't mean that your MNKD investment was a bad decision. That has yet to resolve itself. |
|
