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Post by kball on Aug 2, 2015 13:41:44 GMT -5
Dear sir,
I happen to own quite a few shares. Spinning fud? Yikes. A simple question. (...)
To assume I spinning fud is mighty thin skinned. ... I have seen my account whittled down now to hear someone call me out?! For a simple question. (...)
I don't post much hear as I just read.
Steve Your legitimate questions prompt me to ask the administrators if there is some workaround to numbers of posts and board classifications? For people who read but don't post (perhaps more folks than we think), it can often be assumed (because of experiences here with newbie short shills) that someone with very few posts is spreading FUD. Yet, if someone has been a member for several months, they may be a newbie poster but not a recent member. Is there not an algorithm that can be applied to recognize status based on length of membership, (or that failing) a line under the avatar image that shows how long the person has been a member? My suggestion is intended to promote friendly (or at least polite and civil) communication that reduces the possibility of assumptions about malicious intent. Regards to all Chris C Chris, click on a poster's name and you can see the date they registered |
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Post by patryn on Aug 2, 2015 15:48:47 GMT -5
There are always two sides of a trade. The call options were both sold and bought and that was quite a few of them. I know someone will mention market makers being on the other side of the trade, but that is just an intermediary. MMs are out to make money and help liquidity of a stock, so they would not make a ridiculous trade that they have no chance of unwinding for at least a net neutral result. Multiple someone's are expecting some fireworks in August. I am glad that all my shares were bought with cold hard cash errr I mean electronic bits in a computer somewhere that represent currency  patryn, wouldn't it be fair to say then that multiple someone's are expecting no fireworks in August, too? Could be expecting fireworks the opposite direction But yes that would be a fair statement to make! |
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Post by BD on Aug 2, 2015 15:57:08 GMT -5
Steve Your legitimate questions prompt me to ask the administrators if there is some workaround to numbers of posts and board classifications? For people who read but don't post (perhaps more folks than we think), it can often be assumed (because of experiences here with newbie short shills) that someone with very few posts is spreading FUD. Yet, if someone has been a member for several months, they may be a newbie poster but not a recent member. Is there not an algorithm that can be applied to recognize status based on length of membership, (or that failing) a line under the avatar image that shows how long the person has been a member? My suggestion is intended to promote friendly (or at least polite and civil) communication that reduces the possibility of assumptions about malicious intent. Regards to all Chris C As kball just said, any member can check another member's registration date. There's no simple mechanism for classifying members by length of registration, but that alone wouldn't necessarily mean much. In any case, as long as (post-count) newbies are given the benefit of the doubt when they post comments and questions that push the FUD-sensitive members' buttons, we'll be OK. The policy I wish everyone would follow is, "If you have nothing nice to say, don't say anything at all." I also recommend that anyone who is suspicious of a member simply examine that member's posting history (click on their name, then see the two blue links at the bottom). 95% of the time, when I see a "suspicious" post, or one that I wouldn't have deemed suspicious myself but other members have called out, I check the posting history of the member in question and I'm satisfied they're innocent. Remember, anyone who isn't a seasoned MNKD veteran is likely to ask questions that sound like soft bashing. We're all a lot better off by assuming that those types of questions are innocent. |
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Post by kc on Aug 2, 2015 17:52:10 GMT -5
Is this the information you are looking for on stats and who is visiting. Attachment DeletedSteve Your legitimate questions prompt me to ask the administrators if there is some workaround to numbers of posts and board classifications? For people who read but don't post (perhaps more folks than we think), it can often be assumed (because of experiences here with newbie short shills) that someone with very few posts is spreading FUD. Yet, if someone has been a member for several months, they may be a newbie poster but not a recent member. Is there not an algorithm that can be applied to recognize status based on length of membership, (or that failing) a line under the avatar image that shows how long the person has been a member? My suggestion is intended to promote friendly (or at least polite and civil) communication that reduces the possibility of assumptions about malicious intent. Regards to all Chris C As kball just said, any member can check another member's registration date. There's no simple mechanism for classifying members by length of registration, but that alone wouldn't necessarily mean much. In any case, as long as (post-count) newbies are given the benefit of the doubt when they post comments and questions that push the FUD-sensitive members' buttons, we'll be OK. The policy I wish everyone would follow is, "If you have nothing nice to say, don't say anything at all." I also recommend that anyone who is suspicious of a member simply examine that member's posting history (click on their name, then see the two blue links at the bottom). 95% of the time, when I see a "suspicious" post, or one that I wouldn't have deemed suspicious myself but other members have called out, I check the posting history of the member in question and I'm satisfied they're innocent. Remember, anyone who isn't a seasoned MNKD veteran is likely to ask questions that sound like soft bashing. We're all a lot better off by assuming that those types of questions are innocent. |
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Post by cusop on Aug 3, 2015 10:15:29 GMT -5
Posting has nothing to do with whether some one is shorting or long, I come here to find out important information about my investments and in general the information is useful. There will always be an element of posters who are complete knobs, thankfully the disappear quite fast on here. The other reason I do not post often is that I do not want to dilute the forum with useless posts that are not really relevant, actually like this post. I am long and maybe too long now but I keep fait that the general diabetic public will give this product a try and learn about its strengths.
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Post by longstocking on Aug 3, 2015 20:34:32 GMT -5
It saddens me when I read a contributor say they haven't posted here because they don't think they "have anything to add." I hope this board remains a place of reason...as long as it's within reason. I think that posting optimism, for example that one has blind faith in MannKind/Sanofi, should not be construed as pumping. "Buy out next Monday!" - now that's pumping. Posting one's sentiment is not, IMO. From time to time you may notice I throw out a somewhat "exuberant" theory for discussion. I happen to like provoking people to think outside the box from time to time. Occasionally such discussions uncover new ideas. To be honest, I think that lack of information is depressing and it has been providing the perfect soil to plant FUD. So, as for me, I would hope that nobody ever thinks they are not contributing by posting a simple, "I believe good things are coming". I like a when a little ray of sunshine peeks through, especially after all weathermen have predicted a gloomy day. Some consider speculation to be the antithesis of reason. I happen to believe shareholders speculating that great things are about to begin is perfectly reasonable. I'm new to ProBoards today, but not new to MNKD or investing. Been accumulating quite a bit of MNKD since 2011 and recently started posting on ST, which I only discovered back in May. I honestly hadn't even been paying attention to the stock until my phone buzzed an alert to me back in June when we went up over $7. Since then I thought I had better pay better attention and have been hooked on following it during the trading day since, (which is making it hard to get the day job done, by the way!). Anyway, I just wanted to say thanks to all the posters here as you've helped me spot the FUD and made me more confident in my investment - especially Harry. I keep trying to search the net and seek answers for my own theories, just to find that he's already beaten me to the punch and has a post about it already. |
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Post by mannmade on Aug 3, 2015 20:37:53 GMT -5
I would say we are now firmly in the palm of the event you have been speaking about Joey... Whether or not more follow this one certainly fits your premise...
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Post by kc on Aug 3, 2015 22:22:00 GMT -5
Longstocking welcome to the jungle. We are a friendly supportive group at proboards. Looking one day to have a celebration for all of MannKind.
kcphaeton
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Post by monger on Aug 4, 2015 10:14:20 GMT -5
patryn, wouldn't it be fair to say then that multiple someone's are expecting no fireworks in August, too? Could be expecting fireworks the opposite direction But yes that would be a fair statement to make! Fireworks in the opposite direction are when you get shelled from the air. I think we've seen enough of that already, thanks!  |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2015 11:25:10 GMT -5
This is strictly my thoughts and for discussion purposes and not meant as a recommendation by any means: I personally am looking at a straddle at this point based on the original theme of this thread. For those that do not know what a straddle is, here is a link that explains it in some detail: www.tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_straddle_using_calls_and_puts_together_to_capture_a_big_move-677752.htmlThe last 5 trading days the volatility has virtually come to a halt for whatever reason (most likely the conversion process or non process whichever the case may be) but most longs have now become somewhat sanguine in their expecting this to be a longer term wait. They have literally been lulled into thinking whether they're collecting interest on their money or just in acceptance "of it could go on for another six mos. until we get news" scenario. The straddle will come into play should something come out that causes the volatility to shoot much higher which will also in turn cause the premiums to jump as well. If you're in Rob Sacher's camp the idea is to take advantage of the initial swing, take profits on that position and then anticipate recapturing the costs and/or possible profits for the opposite side of the straddle when the pendulum swings the other way in a volatile fashion. To take it one step further, if you think that it is an expensive trade because of the risk of it not coming into play, you can offset it with selling a "strangle" at strikes you think this could possibly sit within for a period of time and collect the offsetting premiums. I would stress that for anyone not familiar with options to not "try this at home" so to speak, it is primarily meant for discussion purposes only for those that have actively traded options for any significant period of time. Also, taking positions like these really require one to be readily available and nimble to take advantage of when/if the time came that the s/p hits that volatility. In other words "stick to your day jobs" and when/if a material event happens most likely you will have missed most of the swings 
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 5, 2015 12:12:32 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans... I'm curious what strikes and dates you are considering for the straddle.
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Post by mssciguy on Aug 5, 2015 12:44:51 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans... I'm curious what strikes and dates you are considering for the straddle. In the age of HFT, options are extremely dangerous. I would not go there. You might have the most brilliant ingenious plan in the world, and some guy sitting in front of a computer sets the HFT to change the price by a couple pennies and destroy what you did. I have seen it first hand. Do not trust this market. It is essentially unregulated. Treat your long position as a "share" in Mannkind.... all of those options and strategies will only give you an ulcer or heart attack (even if you are successful). But if that's the way you roll, good luck. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2015 13:28:27 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans... I'm curious what strikes and dates you are considering for the straddle. In the age of HFT, options are extremely dangerous. I would not go there. You might have the most brilliant ingenious plan in the world, and some guy sitting in front of a computer sets the HFT to change the price by a couple pennies and destroy what you did. I have seen it first hand. Do not trust this market. It is essentially unregulated. Treat your long position as a "share" in Mannkind.... all of those options and strategies will only give you an ulcer or heart attack (even if you are successful). But if that's the way you roll, good luck. Agreed, and thus the reason I PM'd DBC. I do not wish to advocate this strategy rather brought it up for discussion for those that have had extensive experience of trading options. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Oct 1, 2015 4:12:34 GMT -5
Hypothetically speaking, most longs have talked about a material event that would cause a short squeeze....conversely I'm wondering if the longs are mentally and financially prepared for a material event headline that would cause a possible selloff reaction? An example would be with a previous small life insurance company I held shares in where the founder was an officer and major shareholder and passed away a few years ago. It was deemed a material event and got put out across the wires, etc. Should something like that occur and the instantaneous reaction causes violent swing reactions are you prepared to handle it when the uncertainty gets thrown about. You better believe there would be rumors from left, right, and center...FUD galore! I am saying that it is not a guaranteed certainty to occur but certain events stick out in my memory that have occurred in very similar situations to the one with this company. It keeps me balanced and grounded when remembering the past (certain events as mentioned) and learning from history so I thought I would share from previous experience. I have mentioned in the past DNDN, which much like MNKD had a huge short interest and the stock was usually under constant pressure. The shorts got caught off guard as after similar struggles they never thought the company would get the first ever cancer immunotherapy approved. Well after the approval, the share price was very volatile and I remember within a day it went like a yo yo from 8 to 2. Eventually it ripped up to near 60 and settled to trade between 30-40 area. Ultimately it went all the way back to pennies and BK for various reasons (far different in comparing its problems, etc.) but the day it made those swings I vividly remember because in a sense it was one of those "deer in the headlights" days and there was a huge amount of confusion...I believe it may have been halted after it was too late and the damage was done to sort things out. For a better understanding of what took place and some similarities see following: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dendreon they had a bit of their own cult referred to Dendreonites and after getting what looked to be an ok in 2007 from the FDA, the FDA stated they wanted more info....it eventually got approved two years later, sound familiar? The thoughts that go through one's mind when emotions take over can cause one to act now and think about what they've done later...the reason I never flinched prior to Adcom was I constantly reminded myself of what I had learned through my due diligence up to that point and held confidence that the committee would see what a wonderful alternative Afrezza would/could be for Diabetics. What swings the emotions for some more than others is that everyone's situation is obviously different...but one thing is certain, during times like those you will wish that you didn't know what margin was and if you hold options with expirations coming due, depending on how things settle out you may vow you'll never do options again. More importantly, if you held onto the stock based on the fundamentals of what you've learned and believe nothing long term has changed ie., the science etc. then as hard as it may be to keep those emotions in check, remember calmer heads will most likely prevail. I bring this up because one needs to keep in mind the sizable short position and they (the shorts) will prey on those vulnerable emotions and especially on those that are exposed to margin. I know that there are those that don't pay attention to charts etc. especially when it comes to biotechs but from a timing standpoint we are in those final weeks for a very long inverted H&S pattern that has been discussed in the past to come to a climatic period of reversal. It feels as though with as complacent as most have been through this that some event will inevitably happen to cause a final "flush" and/or panic for a decent volume of shares to exchange between long liquidation and shorts covering and them converting into those long positions. I would hate to see some of those that have waited this long to give in to what could amount to regretful emotional decisions. Take this fwiw, but I've witnessed it on various past occasions. IMO, this is not a time to be highly margined in this stock as those who were the day prior to Adcom can attest, it was not fun and most likely very costly for some who had to involuntarily part with their shares. The next few weeks may pass w/o incident, but are you mentally and financially prepared to ride out any storm that comes with gusts of fear, uncertainty, and doubts spewed about to part you with those shares you've ridden with to this point? Keep your eye on the prize Just thought of revisiting this after reading some of the relatively "new" nervous "supposedly" longs on here recently...most long time longs recognize the obvious, in any case IMO we are in the final phase of completing "the long awaited shoulder"...speaking solely for myself, I have been and continue to take advantage of the "headline" fears (otherwise known as the proverbial being greedy while others are spent and fearful). Personally, IMO if you believe this is/will be just a niche product you've been living under a rock. The perfect storm has created the prophetic chart to play out true to form. Peppy, go ahead and post a continuous chart reflecting the last 10yrs. at your convenience |
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Post by steve on Oct 1, 2015 7:18:35 GMT -5
It would seem so. Alas, I had hoped it were not. But, now with the recent layoff news and slow script numbers and over all market queasiness it seems to be playing out. I have been waiting with some "powder" to buy more. I won't estimate this bottom but I have my thoughts. Since I can't time the market ie news events, I can only add.
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