Are you mentally prepared for a material event?
Nov 11, 2015 18:28:17 GMT -5
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 11, 2015 18:28:17 GMT -5
Should something like that occur and the instantaneous reaction causes violent swing reactions are you prepared to handle it when the uncertainty gets thrown about. You better believe there would be rumors from left, right, and center...FUD galore! I am saying that it is not a guaranteed certainty to occur but certain events stick out in my memory that have occurred in very similar situations to the one with this company. It keeps me balanced and grounded when remembering the past (certain events as mentioned) and learning from history so I thought I would share from previous experience.
I have mentioned in the past DNDN, which much like MNKD had a huge short interest and the stock was usually under constant pressure. The shorts got caught off guard as after similar struggles they never thought the company would get the first ever cancer immunotherapy approved. Well after the approval, the share price was very volatile and I remember within a day it went like a yo yo from 8 to 2. Eventually it ripped up to near 60 and settled to trade between 30-40 area. Ultimately it went all the way back to pennies and BK for various reasons (far different in comparing its problems, etc.) but the day it made those swings I vividly remember because in a sense it was one of those "deer in the headlights" days and there was a huge amount of confusion...I believe it may have been halted after it was too late and the damage was done to sort things out. For a better understanding of what took place and some similarities see following: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dendreon they had a bit of their own cult referred to Dendreonites and after getting what looked to be an ok in 2007 from the FDA, the FDA stated they wanted more info....it eventually got approved two years later, sound familiar?
The thoughts that go through one's mind when emotions take over can cause one to act now and think about what they've done later...the reason I never flinched prior to Adcom was I constantly reminded myself of what I had learned through my due diligence up to that point and held confidence that the committee would see what a wonderful alternative Afrezza would/could be for Diabetics.
What swings the emotions for some more than others is that everyone's situation is obviously different...but one thing is certain, during times like those you will wish that you didn't know what margin was and if you hold options with expirations coming due, depending on how things settle out you may vow you'll never do options again. More importantly, if you held onto the stock based on the fundamentals of what you've learned and believe nothing long term has changed ie., the science etc. then as hard as it may be to keep those emotions in check, remember calmer heads will most likely prevail.
I bring this up because one needs to keep in mind the sizable short position and they (the shorts) will prey on those vulnerable emotions and especially on those that are exposed to margin. I know that there are those that don't pay attention to charts etc. especially when it comes to biotechs but from a timing standpoint we are in those final weeks for a very long inverted H&S pattern that has been discussed in the past to come to a climatic period of reversal. It feels as though with as complacent as most have been through this that some event will inevitably happen to cause a final "flush" and/or panic for a decent volume of shares to exchange between long liquidation and shorts covering and them converting into those long positions. I would hate to see some of those that have waited this long to give in to what could amount to regretful emotional decisions. Take this fwiw, but I've witnessed it on various past occasions. IMO, this is not a time to be highly margined in this stock as those who were the day prior to Adcom can attest, it was not fun and most likely very costly for some who had to involuntarily part with their shares.
The next few weeks may pass w/o incident, but are you mentally and financially prepared to ride out any storm that comes with gusts of fear, uncertainty, and doubts spewed about to part you with those shares you've ridden with to this point? Keep your eye on the prize
Perhaps I should have bumped this on Monday after the CC so some would have been a bit more "prepared" for today...this is the climatic period I was referring to in completing the final "bottom" (inverse shoulder)...hopefully some of those who read this prior refrained from margin and/or purchasing shorter term call options. If you had shares and held you may of just needed some Dramamine
