|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 1, 2015 9:10:15 GMT -5
Hypothetically speaking, most longs have talked about a material event that would cause a short squeeze....conversely I'm wondering if the longs are mentally and financially prepared for a material event headline that would cause a possible selloff reaction? An example would be with a previous small life insurance company I held shares in where the founder was an officer and major shareholder and passed away a few years ago. It was deemed a material event and got put out across the wires, etc. Should something like that occur and the instantaneous reaction causes violent swing reactions are you prepared to handle it when the uncertainty gets thrown about. You better believe there would be rumors from left, right, and center...FUD galore! I am saying that it is not a guaranteed certainty to occur but certain events stick out in my memory that have occurred in very similar situations to the one with this company. It keeps me balanced and grounded when remembering the past (certain events as mentioned) and learning from history so I thought I would share from previous experience. I have mentioned in the past DNDN, which much like MNKD had a huge short interest and the stock was usually under constant pressure. The shorts got caught off guard as after similar struggles they never thought the company would get the first ever cancer immunotherapy approved. Well after the approval, the share price was very volatile and I remember within a day it went like a yo yo from 8 to 2. Eventually it ripped up to near 60 and settled to trade between 30-40 area. Ultimately it went all the way back to pennies and BK for various reasons (far different in comparing its problems, etc.) but the day it made those swings I vividly remember because in a sense it was one of those "deer in the headlights" days and there was a huge amount of confusion...I believe it may have been halted after it was too late and the damage was done to sort things out. For a better understanding of what took place and some similarities see following: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dendreon they had a bit of their own cult referred to Dendreonites and after getting what looked to be an ok in 2007 from the FDA, the FDA stated they wanted more info....it eventually got approved two years later, sound familiar? The thoughts that go through one's mind when emotions take over can cause one to act now and think about what they've done later...the reason I never flinched prior to Adcom was I constantly reminded myself of what I had learned through my due diligence up to that point and held confidence that the committee would see what a wonderful alternative Afrezza would/could be for Diabetics. What swings the emotions for some more than others is that everyone's situation is obviously different...but one thing is certain, during times like those you will wish that you didn't know what margin was and if you hold options with expirations coming due, depending on how things settle out you may vow you'll never do options again. More importantly, if you held onto the stock based on the fundamentals of what you've learned and believe nothing long term has changed ie., the science etc. then as hard as it may be to keep those emotions in check, remember calmer heads will most likely prevail. I bring this up because one needs to keep in mind the sizable short position and they (the shorts) will prey on those vulnerable emotions and especially on those that are exposed to margin. I know that there are those that don't pay attention to charts etc. especially when it comes to biotechs but from a timing standpoint we are in those final weeks for a very long inverted H&S pattern that has been discussed in the past to come to a climatic period of reversal. It feels as though with as complacent as most have been through this that some event will inevitably happen to cause a final "flush" and/or panic for a decent volume of shares to exchange between long liquidation and shorts covering and them converting into those long positions. I would hate to see some of those that have waited this long to give in to what could amount to regretful emotional decisions. Take this fwiw, but I've witnessed it on various past occasions. IMO, this is not a time to be highly margined in this stock as those who were the day prior to Adcom can attest, it was not fun and most likely very costly for some who had to involuntarily part with their shares. The next few weeks may pass w/o incident, but are you mentally and financially prepared to ride out any storm that comes with gusts of fear, uncertainty, and doubts spewed about to part you with those shares you've ridden with to this point? Keep your eye on the prize  |
|
|
|
Post by centralcoastinvestor on Aug 1, 2015 10:08:34 GMT -5
Well said. I have owned this stock since 2007. I went through both CRLs. Wow what fun that was. The first CRL was when I learned what a bear raid was and I learned that I shouldn't place stop orders as I got stopped out during that raid. I am not sure if I will ever hold my entire position again in a stock through an Adcom like I did with Mnkd, just too risky. And really stressful.
It is so hard for anyone to remain emotion free with this stock. I find the hardest thing to deal with is when materially good news comes out and the stock price goes down. I have come to despise shorts. I have no problem with someone betting against a stock in theory. But to watch all of the manipulation is demoralizing. However, after all of the learning experiences with this stock, I still believe that Afrezza and Technosphere are game changers. I am in this for the long haul.
|
|
|
|
Post by mssciguy on Aug 1, 2015 10:22:37 GMT -5
Have any of you reported your concerns about manipulation to SEC?
It is extremely frustrating to see the lies streaming out of Adam F. He has a kind of hit man mentality. Ugly.
According to optionsmonster, 20,000 $5 calls were purchased Friday. That may be part of how the covering will be done.
|
|
|
|
Post by kbrion77 on Aug 1, 2015 11:31:17 GMT -5
Well said. I have owned this stock since 2007. I went through both CRLs. Wow what fun that was. The first CRL was when I learned what a bear raid was and I learned that I shouldn't place stop orders as I got stopped out during that raid. I am not sure if I will ever hold my entire position again in a stock through an Adcom like I did with Mnkd, just too risky. And really stressful. It is so hard for anyone to remain emotion free with this stock. I find the hardest thing to deal with is when materially good news comes out and the stock price goes down. I have come to despise shorts. I have no problem with someone betting against a stock in theory. But to watch all of the manipulation is demoralizing. However, after all of the learning experiences with this stock, I still believe that Afrezza and Technosphere are game changers. I am in this for the long haul. I can remember the day back in 2009 where it kind of hit me that diabetes is turning into an epidemic and will only get worse in the future. I typed in "diabetes companies" into google and lo and behold a company named Mannkind turned up. I thought inhaled insulin was a no brainer to be successful so I just continued to read about Mannkind and follow the stock. I can't imagine the road you investors have had to deal with since 2007 but if investing was easy we would all be reading the Wall Street journal at our beach houses right about now. The manipulation is border line comical and you just have to shake your head and wonder how it's even possible but we will prevail. The product exceeds expectations, the market is massive, and we are partnered with a global giant. I still think the short term road will be bumpy as competitors will do whatever they can to not give up market share but they won't be able to stop satisfied, healthier customers. Although the manipulation is ridiculous I don't let the hogwash bother me, even though following this stock on a daily basis is better than any reality show. I do truly believe this will be the trade of my lifetime and am in for the long haul as well. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris-C on Aug 1, 2015 12:08:24 GMT -5
This is a thread with very wise comments and advice that should be heeded by anyone contemplating buying on margin. Most experienced investors have learned through error (stop losses, buying on good news, etc) that the market is not kind to people who invest using logic and expecting a level playing field. The advice to trade without emotion is sound, but more easily said than done.
|
|
|
|
Post by mssciguy on Aug 1, 2015 12:27:27 GMT -5
This is a thread with very wise comments and advice that should be heeded by anyone contemplating buying on margin. Most experienced investors have learned through error (stop losses, buying on good news, etc) that the market is not kind to people who invest using logic and expecting a level playing field. The advice to trade without emotion is sound, but more easily said than done. I absolutely learned about options the hard way, that's for sure. Nothing is what seems with options, and the people with the keys to the HFT computers can wipe you out in a heartbeat.ye Read Flashboys and you'll learn how Goldman Sachs developed the HFT software. The programmer went to jail. |
|
|
|
Post by kc on Aug 1, 2015 12:38:14 GMT -5
Good thread but I have to add the comment that no matter what the material event might be there is inherit value in MannKind.
The heavy lifting was done by getting FDA approval. The slow start perhaps is a bit of a disappointment to the retail investor but is it to Sanofi? Perhaps we are too close to the daily grind of the stock. I have over 35 different stocks in my portfolio some of the that I have owned for over 35 years or longer. But MannKind is the only one that has really sucked me into watching it daily. Perhaps my expectations were wrong and I was looking for that one time Jewel that really exploded vs. the many bombs that I have also had over the years.
What is the real value of MannKind? My take is it's worth more than the market is giving it credit for today. Will Sanofi eventually be successful with Afrezza? You bet they will. Will it happen as quickly as we have hoped? Perhaps not. but the intrinsic value of MannKind is more than today's value. What is the real value? that depends on the commitment of Sanofi to see Afrezza develop into a strong viable alternative to the existing insulin's in the market today.
Do I think there is a chance for Sanofi to walk away from Afrezza? No. But than again I am a retail investor who has been fooled many times over the years.
My view of Sanofi is this is another tool in their diabetes insulin portfolio. It's one that nobody else has available to them. Can they monetize properly? I am counting on it. When you have a product that is so unique it takes time and marketing to gain awareness of it. Let's hope that Sanofi understands this and will stay committed even if it takes a couple of years. Afrezza is just an infant and it will take years to raise this child to adult statue. Let's hope that our better days are ahead of us.
Getting back to Value. While we all want to see a 10X bagger it would not upset us to receive $15.00 or $20.00 and move from this risk of never knowing what tomorrow would bring That is why I really think that perhaps we as retail investors are tied to emotionally to MannKind. Today its life or death with a single product that is just beginning its marketing life and we are just a bunch of nerves waiting for a glimpse of what might be ahead for us as investors. |
|
|
|
Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Aug 1, 2015 12:47:14 GMT -5
This is a thread with very wise comments and advice that should be heeded by anyone contemplating buying on margin. Most experienced investors have learned through error (stop losses, buying on good news, etc) that the market is not kind to people who invest using logic and expecting a level playing field. The advice to trade without emotion is sound, but more easily said than done. I absolutely learned about options the hard way, that's for sure. Nothing is what seems with options, and the people with the keys to the HFT computers can wipe you out in a heartbeat.ye Read Flashboys and you'll learn how Goldman Sachs developed the HFT software. The programmer went to jail. If you are hinting that the Russian coder who developed the Goldman HFT software went to jail because he wrote it, that would be incorrect. He is in jail because, according to Goldman, he left the firm and used software, they claim that belong to them, with another firm. Having read Flashboys and paying attention to his case up to now, it appears that the guy got totally screwed. But then again GS has tons of $$$ and the Gov/SEC's ear. It's time for another revolution because this Government has gotten out of control. |
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 1, 2015 12:51:26 GMT -5
Have any of you reported your concerns about manipulation to SEC? It is extremely frustrating to see the lies streaming out of Adam F. He has a kind of hit man mentality. Ugly. According to optionsmonster, 20,000 $5 calls were purchased Friday. That may be part of how the covering will be done. List what verifiable lies AF has written... not off base crazy unfounded opinions or predictions... or selectively picking results from clinical trials while ignoring others. I certainly don't think much of him, but he hardly seems unique in the world of "financial" "journalism". Ha... made myself laugh typing those last two words. If the SEC were to go after him for what he's said, imagine the same standard applied to those on the long side. There have been tons of incorrect predictions and misinterpretation of facts in both directions. Perhaps there are some verifiable lies... and I'd be interested in what they are. I tend to pay little attention so what he says doesn't really stick in my mind. |
|
|
|
Post by mssciguy on Aug 1, 2015 13:04:15 GMT -5
Have any of you reported your concerns about manipulation to SEC? It is extremely frustrating to see the lies streaming out of Adam F. He has a kind of hit man mentality. Ugly. According to optionsmonster, 20,000 $5 calls were purchased Friday. That may be part of how the covering will be done. List what verifiable lies AF has written... not off base crazy unfounded opinions or predictions... or selectively picking results from clinical trials while ignoring others. I certainly don't think much of him, but he hardly seems unique in the world of "financial" "journalism". Ha... made myself laugh typing those last two words. If the SEC were to go after him for what he's said, imagine the same standard applied to those on the long side. There have been tons of incorrect predictions and misinterpretation of facts in both directions. Perhaps there are some verifiable lies... and I'd be interested in what they are. I tend to pay little attention so what he says doesn't really stick in my mind. ...........verifiable lies? .. I am certain that at least one lawyer does edits on his hit pieces. Have you seen the website exposeadam.com ? This person has made many enemies. You are right about thestreet and I have long fantasized about an app that filtered out all "unbiased and not motivated by sneaky greedy financial journalism" from my home computer ... might be a great tool for Mankind........................ |
|
|
|
Post by steve on Aug 1, 2015 14:11:37 GMT -5
Have any of you reported your concerns about manipulation to SEC? It is extremely frustrating to see the lies streaming out of Adam F. He has a kind of hit man mentality. Ugly. According to optionsmonster, 20,000 $5 calls were purchased Friday. That may be part of how the covering will be done. How do you know for sure they were not sold? |
|
|
|
Post by mssciguy on Aug 1, 2015 14:31:34 GMT -5
Have any of you reported your concerns about manipulation to SEC? It is extremely frustrating to see the lies streaming out of Adam F. He has a kind of hit man mentality. Ugly. According to optionsmonster, 20,000 $5 calls were purchased Friday. That may be part of how the covering will be done. How do you know for sure they were not sold? Do you have something to add here? I have been seeing so much FUD this weekend. You know, it's pretty cool to actually produce something other than spin from the dark side. |
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Aug 1, 2015 15:20:49 GMT -5
Have any of you reported your concerns about manipulation to SEC? It is extremely frustrating to see the lies streaming out of Adam F. He has a kind of hit man mentality. Ugly. According to optionsmonster, 20,000 $5 calls were purchased Friday. That may be part of how the covering will be done. List what verifiable lies AF has written... not off base crazy unfounded opinions or predictions... or selectively picking results from clinical trials while ignoring others. I certainly don't think much of him, but he hardly seems unique in the world of "financial" "journalism". Ha... made myself laugh typing those last two words. If the SEC were to go after him for what he's said, imagine the same standard applied to those on the long side. There have been tons of incorrect predictions and misinterpretation of facts in both directions. Perhaps there are some verifiable lies... and I'd be interested in what they are. I tend to pay little attention so what he says doesn't really stick in my mind. At issue isn't whether AF publishes lies, but whether his hit pieces can be directly linked to illegal trading activities. That will never happen. After all, the U.S. government doesn't track phone/email records... |
|
|
|
Post by suebeeee1 on Aug 1, 2015 16:11:17 GMT -5
It's time for another revolution because this Government has gotten out of control. [/quote]
Revolution? Did you say revolution? I agree that government has gotten out of control and its time, however I suspect you and I would be on opposite sides, so let's just agree to support this company we all have so much invested in. lol
|
|
|
|
Post by steve on Aug 1, 2015 16:48:07 GMT -5
Dear sir,
I happen to own quite a few shares. Spinning fud? Yikes. A simple question. I happen to own the before mentioned calls. The op int I am not aware of any record as to what they were the previous day or week. I happen to have some images I snapped of what the op int was sometime ago. I hear people talking about all the buying of options and I think that is difficult to tell.
To assume I spinning fud is mighty thin skinned. I am concerned here as this head & shoulders joey mentioned is rather weak. In fact, I had hoped a cup and handle (weak) was in play but believe this has been trashed. There is however a H&S pattern with a head that formed last June/July of 2014.. I have become concerned about this last qtr review by SNY and their lack of discourse on afrezza and low script roll out.
I have seen my account whittled down now to hear someone call me out?! For a simple question. Oh, I did do a precursory search about this volume on the internet. I found nothing to my satisfaction. I will not jump to conclusion that this was beneficial to my long position.
I don't post much hear as I just read.
|
|
