For What It's Worth

[peppy]

Interesting that Hedge Fun Manager told a person he just met, his market thinking.
Sounds like he has a special channel to Sanofi, Or the question by the GS analyst 2 conference calls ago is making the rounds.
Golf course or bar?

[Deleted]

With insurance coverage negotiations, DTC, pediatric trial, a world wide plan all started or about to begin, the short herd is nervous.

Longs, do not believe this fear mongering. I recommend not even read their ideas, you will only lose sleep and at worse cause you to sell. Do not fall for it!

[spiro]

Guys take it easy on friends. Spiro's friend has a friend of a friend who knows that Vanguard, Greywolf and Morgan Stanley bought over 6.8 million shares during the last quarter and that apparently they are not worried about the level of Sanofi's commitment. He said that institutions now own 27.8% of MNKD shares. Spiro's friend believes that Vanguard and Greywolf may know some important people in France.

Spiro here, just trying to figure out who to believe ?

[jbe]

Does anyone know the timeframe for when Mannkind can actually book the already met milestone payments? Until these are booked, Sanofi really has not invested much in Mannkind, which on the plus side means they can stay in the game a long time, knowing they can always get the milestone payments back...on the other hand, when the payments ARE booked, it will make a world of difference to the MNKD balance sheet.

[ashiwi]

Goldman Sucks continues to hold 722,316 shares as of the end of the 2nd quarter. If I thought stock was going to $2, I would have sold. But that's just me.

[petech]

Trend thank you for your post.  I believe it is important to understand the argument against your position just as well as you understand the argument for it.  And the shorts have been right...to date...because at the end of the day, what matters is scripts and they are not anywhere near where they should be.  Hurdles of insurance tiering; manufacturing ramp up; distribution; marketing; etc face any drug...but one that is competing in a very competitive space with very deep-pocketed players obviously willing to defend their turf...and competing in a way that requires a behavioral change (itself a considerable challenge) on behalf of the patient and (ideally) an equipment purchase (spirometry) on behalf of the doctor makes the road we've traveled a very safe bet for the shorts.  Had I known that insurances place your drug effectively on the do-not-disturb list for 6 months to a year...and then you have to hope to be approved into more favorable tiers...I would have likely sold out last year and been re-entering now.  Admittedly, this is my fault and I should have spent less time enthralled with my confirmation bias and more time thinking what could go wrong. But that's neither here nor there.

So the shorts argument is objectively a good one.  The buy-and-bury model in big pharma is very well proven and in terms of what Sanofi has done to date...it isn't that great.  There has been no public "our plan is to sell X billion in Y time."  When the partnership was announced, it wasn't the CEO of Sanofi touting it on the call.  Spirometry issues were foreseeable as were payment (insurance) issues; and an argument could be made that Sanofi is merely going through the motions here and will pull out in 2016 (after notice period blah blah) leaving MNKD in a far less than ideal situation.  We all know Sanofi has salespeople educating prescribers...yet far too often we hear things like only X% of doctors even know about Afrezza.  Plus there is a new CEO.

Alternatively, because we are changing behavior in addition to medicines...the "ramp up" necessary is considerable...so early scripts should not be viewed as authoritative as they should be.  You lay the groundwork of fighting for a good tiering / getting spriometry access/machines set up for the patients / listen to feedback from initial users and tailor your approach / get active in the script reimbursement (concierge service).  So once the tide has turned (insurance not an issue / spirometry is addressed either by docs having the device...or easy logistics made for patients to get / any other feedback from users addressed (2 units?  Sure))....you turn on the full court press and start bringing people into doctors' offices to ask for it / get on it.  We have the Exhubra failure as a what-not-to-do guide.  The thing is...because the deck is so stacked against you...you can't start marketing the hell out of your drug until right about now at the earliest (insurance). So we have no way of knowing if this is the gameplan or not because it is all so secretive.  

But I judge people by their actions...not their words (especially in finance).  Lending rates for our stock have fallen...and your friend's comments about taking profits fits into that.  Shorts aren't stupid...but they are guessing just as we are.  And they know that very soon the playing field is going to be level...so this very well could start selling on an insane basis.  So they're taking money off the table.  If they truly believed this was a failure, they'd be adding to their position...not taking away from it.

So we'll know soon enough (I argue this 4th quarter is when we'll know for sure where we are going; those are the scripts I will track and model out as indicative of where we are going to end up).  I think this month marks the point at which the jump ball has happened and the game is underway.  If things go well, we'll start seeing a big uptick soon (Hakan alluded to September...I'm more in the October timeframe to allow for people coming back from summer vacation, plus time to see endo, plus time to get script).  If things don't...we'll start seeing a large increase in lending rates.  Regardless, the game is underway and both sides are nervous.  


Although there still are those crazy ones that add to their position now.

[tbone]

Aug 18, 2015 8:03:57 GMT -5 jbe said:

Does anyone know the timeframe for when Mannkind can actually book the already met milestone payments? Until these are booked, Sanofi really has not invested much in Mannkind, which on the plus side means they can stay in the game a long time, knowing they can always get the milestone payments back...on the other hand, when the payments ARE booked, it will make a world of difference to the MNKD balance sheet.

Sanofi can "get the milestones back"? Umm, no. Can you support that idea?

[kball]

Aug 18, 2015 8:53:24 GMT -5 petech said:

Trend thank you for your post.  I believe it is important to understand the argument against your position just as well as you understand the argument for it.  And the shorts have been right...to date...because at the end of the day, what matters is scripts and they are not anywhere near where they should be.  Hurdles of insurance tiering; manufacturing ramp up; distribution; marketing; etc face any drug...but one that is competing in a very competitive space with very deep-pocketed players obviously willing to defend their turf...and competing in a way that requires a behavioral change (itself a considerable challenge) on behalf of the patient and (ideally) an equipment purchase (spirometry) on behalf of the doctor makes the road we've traveled a very safe bet for the shorts.  Had I known that insurances place your drug effectively on the do-not-disturb list for 6 months to a year...and then you have to hope to be approved into more favorable tiers...I would have likely sold out last year and been re-entering now.  Admittedly, this is my fault and I should have spent less time enthralled with my confirmation bias and more time thinking what could go wrong. But that's neither here nor there.

So the shorts argument is objectively a good one.  The buy-and-bury model in big pharma is very well proven and in terms of what Sanofi has done to date...it isn't that great.  There has been no public "our plan is to sell X billion in Y time."  When the partnership was announced, it wasn't the CEO of Sanofi touting it on the call.  Spirometry issues were foreseeable as were payment (insurance) issues; and an argument could be made that Sanofi is merely going through the motions here and will pull out in 2016 (after notice period blah blah) leaving MNKD in a far less than ideal situation.  We all know Sanofi has salespeople educating prescribers...yet far too often we hear things like only X% of doctors even know about Afrezza.  Plus there is a new CEO.

Alternatively, because we are changing behavior in addition to medicines...the "ramp up" necessary is considerable...so early scripts should not be viewed as authoritative as they should be.  You lay the groundwork of fighting for a good tiering / getting spriometry access/machines set up for the patients / listen to feedback from initial users and tailor your approach / get active in the script reimbursement (concierge service).  So once the tide has turned (insurance not an issue / spirometry is addressed either by docs having the device...or easy logistics made for patients to get / any other feedback from users addressed (2 units?  Sure))....you turn on the full court press and start bringing people into doctors' offices to ask for it / get on it.  We have the Exhubra failure as a what-not-to-do guide.  The thing is...because the deck is so stacked against you...you can't start marketing the hell out of your drug until right about now at the earliest (insurance). So we have no way of knowing if this is the gameplan or not because it is all so secretive.  

But I judge people by their actions...not their words (especially in finance).  Lending rates for our stock have fallen...and your friend's comments about taking profits fits into that.  Shorts aren't stupid...but they are guessing just as we are.  And they know that very soon the playing field is going to be level...so this very well could start selling on an insane basis.  So they're taking money off the table.  If they truly believed this was a failure, they'd be adding to their position...not taking away from it.

So we'll know soon enough (I argue this 4th quarter is when we'll know for sure where we are going; those are the scripts I will track and model out as indicative of where we are going to end up).  I think this month marks the point at which the jump ball has happened and the game is underway.  If things go well, we'll start seeing a big uptick soon (Hakan alluded to September...I'm more in the October timeframe to allow for people coming back from summer vacation, plus time to see endo, plus time to get script).  If things don't...we'll start seeing a large increase in lending rates.  Regardless, the game is underway and both sides are nervous.  


Although there still are those crazy ones that add to their position now.

One of my favorite posts since i've been a member, petech.
Just so many well thought out points.
Still having trouble sleeping though
(in hopes of having absolutely no trouble "spending" a few years from now)

[peppy]

The Devil made me do it.  

For What It's Worth by Buffalo Springfield with lyrics

www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bl-vbBnJ3I

[ripano]

At the risk of being ridiculed I will again post my thoughts on "shorts". I do not believe that over 100 million shares are naked short on a stock that is trading at $4. Think about it. Huge margin interest fees to possibly make $4 ? That's not Wall Street folks. From the movie "Wall Street" GREED IS GOOD. The shorts are probably big money managers and hedge funds increasing their positions. Each one of those firms has analyst who spend their entire day researching on companies. Especially companies started by Al Mann. When I look at the core positions of big money continuing to increase it absolutely Validates my belief. Monomeric insulin will be the Gold standard in a few years. Big money managers also understand that fact. They see the Twitter posts and other social media. We are all very fortunate to be able to have invested in the future blockbuster of not only Afrezza but of MNKD and all its potential. So please before you post any more "SHORT STORIES". Think about it and remember FACTS NOT RUMORS. I wish all of us success and I believe that success is not too far away.

[lipripr]

When speaking of the "institutions" holding these blocks of MNKD, does that include the various index funds that have to hold some position in order to meet the benchmark they are trying to mimic?

[ripano]

Black Rock as an example, They invested with over 19 million shares.  Fidelity over 9mm.  Greywolf over 11mm.  Vanguard over 17mm


No need for such a large position unless they understood the potential of MNKD.

These are big players. They are taking huge positions for future profits.   

Mom and Pop are not the shorts.  This is a big money play. Very big money. 

[jbe]

Aug 18, 2015 8:54:49 GMT -5 tbone said:

Aug 18, 2015 8:03:57 GMT -5 jbe said:

Does anyone know the timeframe for when Mannkind can actually book the already met milestone payments? Until these are booked, Sanofi really has not invested much in Mannkind, which on the plus side means they can stay in the game a long time, knowing they can always get the milestone payments back...on the other hand, when the payments ARE booked, it will make a world of difference to the MNKD balance sheet.

Sanofi can "get the milestones back"? Umm, no. Can you support that idea?

I thought the reason the milestone payments have not been booked is because the may have to be returned, otherwise they would have been booked, I have listened to the last few conference calls and am sure the payments have not been booked. However, i guess I could be mistaken, hence my original questions.

[ezrasfund]

The milestone payments will not be returned. They are not booked because MNKD essentially has an offsetting liability in the roll out of Afrezza. They have entered into a joint venture with SNY in which they have agreed to borrow up to $175 million from SNY to support that roll out of Afrezza. Until the Afrezza franchise begins to make money MNKD cannot book any profit from Afrezza. Same difference.

If MNKD had licensed Afrezza to SNY they would have been able to book the licensing fee, as they would have no obligations going forward. But Al decided to make a bigger bet, and so they cannot close the books on this transaction and say have already made money. IMO

[kball]

Aug 18, 2015 9:53:21 GMT -5 ripano said:

Black Rock as an example, They invested with over 19 million shares.  Fidelity over 9mm.  Greywolf over 11mm.  Vanguard over 17mm


No need for such a large position unless they understood the potential of MNKD.

These are big players. They are taking huge positions for future profits.   

Mom and Pop are not the shorts.  This is a big money play. Very big money. 

Blackrock owns IShare etf's.
Vanguard biggest indexer.

Not sure if its for profits or like mentioned in a previous post, benchmarking most of that position.
I tend to think maybe blackrock is overweighting