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Post by mnholdem on Aug 18, 2015 10:53:12 GMT -5
I cannot find my post with the link, but it's spelled out in the License and Collaboration Agreement that the initial upfront payment and all milestone payments are not refundable, even if the Agreement is discontinued.
I think it was opc11 or colton_harden that started the rumor about needing to hold on to those payments because they would have to be returned if Sanofi were to walk. That was FUD. Not correct.
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Post by kc on Aug 18, 2015 10:53:27 GMT -5
Interesting that Hedge Fun Manager told a person he just met, his market thinking. Sounds like he has a special channel to Sanofi, Or the question by the GS analyst 2 conference calls ago is making the rounds. Golf course or bar? Personally I don't believe that Trend had that conversation. my view. seems far fetched that you just happened to meet a Hedgie invested in MannKind on the beach. Must have been up at the Hamptons. |
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Post by jbe on Aug 18, 2015 11:03:42 GMT -5
The milestone payments will not be returned. They are not booked because MNKD essentially has an offsetting liability in the roll out of Afrezza. They have entered into a joint venture with SNY in which they have agreed to borrow up to $175 million from SNY to support that roll out of Afrezza. Until the Afrezza franchise begins to make money MNKD cannot book any profit from Afrezza. Same difference. If MNKD had licensed Afrezza to SNY they would have been able to book the licensing fee, as they would have no obligations going forward. But Al decided to make a bigger bet, and so they cannot close the books on this transaction and say have already made money. IMO OK, thanks for clarification, basically, a mechanism for slowing the cash burn as we work through the current "trough of pain"; That works for me, I believe Afrezza is an excellent product and will sell well once the insurance companies finally put it on a level playing field with its competitors. |
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Post by cjc04 on Aug 18, 2015 11:26:40 GMT -5
I cannot find my post with the link, but it's spelled out in the License and Collaboration Agreement that the initial upfront payment and all milestone payments are not refundable, even if the Agreement is discontinued. I think it was opc11 or colton_harden that started the rumor about needing to hold on to those payments because they would have to be returned if Sanofi were to walk. That was FUD. Not correct. Right, but they DO have to pay back any of the $175m loan that was used if the deal goes down... Which I believe, as I think Ezra was saying, is why they haven't booked the milestone payments. |
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Post by trenddiver on Aug 18, 2015 11:31:26 GMT -5
Interesting that Hedge Fun Manager told a person he just met, his market thinking. Sounds like he has a special channel to Sanofi, Or the question by the GS analyst 2 conference calls ago is making the rounds. Golf course or bar? Personally I don't believe that Trend had that conversation. my view. seems far fetched that you just happened to meet a Hedgie invested in MannKind on the beach. Must have been up at the Hamptons. KC, It doesn't really matter to me what you believe, but go ahead and "shoot the messenger" just because you didnt like the message. Truth be told, I didn't like the message either and tossed it around for several days as whether I would share it with the board. And BTW, this person was not someone I just met. Like I said, he was a friend of a friend whom I knew had started and managed a hedge fund and when we started talking about biotech stocks, I mentioned that MNKD was one of my largest holdings. It was then that he told me that his HF had been short MNKD, owned puts, and as part of the discussion explained his reasons for his short position. Trend |
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Post by kc on Aug 18, 2015 11:37:30 GMT -5
Personally I don't believe that Trend had that conversation. my view. seems far fetched that you just happened to meet a Hedgie invested in MannKind on the beach. Must have been up at the Hamptons. KC, It doesn't really matter to me what you believe, but go ahead and "shoot the messenger" just because you didnt like the message. Truth be told, I didn't like the message either and tossed it around for several days as whether I would share it with the board. And BTW, this person was not someone I just met. Like I said, he was a friend of a friend whom I knew had started and managed a hedge fund and when we started talking about biotech stocks, I mentioned that MNKD was one of my largest holdings. It was then that he told me that his HF had been short MNKD, owned puts, and as part of the discussion explained his reasons for his short position. Trend Trend I wasn't trying to shoot the messenger but just voicing my skeptical view. |
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Post by nylefty on Aug 18, 2015 11:40:16 GMT -5
KC, It doesn't really matter to me what you believe, but go ahead and "shoot the messenger" just because you didnt like the message. Truth be told, I didn't like the message either and tossed it around for several days as whether I would share it with the board. And BTW, this person was not someone I just met. Like I said, he was a friend of a friend whom I knew had started and managed a hedge fund and when we started talking about biotech stocks, I mentioned that MNKD was one of my largest holdings. It was then that he told me that his HF had been short MNKD, owned puts, and as part of the discussion explained his reasons for his short position. Trend Trend, Are you the same "Trend" who's a much more obvious basher on another MNKD message board? If so, you're much more subtle in your bashing here. |
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Post by LongMNKD on Aug 18, 2015 12:07:50 GMT -5
Not a good message at all.. But the shorts do have valid points. Scrips numbers are not what we expected at this point, MNKD management has even said that. Be honest with yourself, we all thought scripts would be higher now. Also, You can't say that Sanofi walking from the deal is not possible, it definitely is a possibility.
I believe Afrezza is a superior drug and thats verified by user feedback. In a perfect world that would mean success but we are not in a perfect world and sometimes superior drugs are held back by big powers out of MNKD's control.
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Post by ryanwal26 on Aug 18, 2015 12:16:31 GMT -5
So when Sanofi doesn't terminate its deal in 2016 doesnt that completely squash the shorts game plan? Since the only play now the shorts have is either bankruptcy or a very very low buyout price. Shorts can't manipulate the stock price any more than they have and every day Mannkind is in business it gets less likely bankruptcy will take place. The funny thing is Mannkind just beat analysis expectations on earnings meaning the company is getting stronger and we haven't even talked about licensing deals for the technosphere technology.
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Post by trenddiver on Aug 18, 2015 12:20:05 GMT -5
KC, It doesn't really matter to me what you believe, but go ahead and "shoot the messenger" just because you didnt like the message. Truth be told, I didn't like the message either and tossed it around for several days as whether I would share it with the board. And BTW, this person was not someone I just met. Like I said, he was a friend of a friend whom I knew had started and managed a hedge fund and when we started talking about biotech stocks, I mentioned that MNKD was one of my largest holdings. It was then that he told me that his HF had been short MNKD, owned puts, and as part of the discussion explained his reasons for his short position. Trend Trend I wasn't trying to shoot the messenger but just voicing my skeptical view. Oh I see. You are "voicing your skeptical view", by stating I'm lying about the conversation I posted. NP. |
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Aug 18, 2015 12:22:14 GMT -5
I cannot find my post with the link, but it's spelled out in the License and Collaboration Agreement that the initial upfront payment and all milestone payments are not refundable, even if the Agreement is discontinued. I think it was opc11 or colton_harden that started the rumor about needing to hold on to those payments because they would have to be returned if Sanofi were to walk. That was FUD. Not correct. Those two might just be the same person. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2015 12:24:47 GMT -5
The good news is that a lot of the heavy lifting has been completed and we are in a situation where it appears that in the near future, we should get a better picture of how things are going to play out.
We are really at a big juncture now. Hopefully Sanofi sees that all of their time, effort and investment is worthwhile. If not, perhaps one of their competitors will. While Sanofi is a respected organization, if you look at their capabilities in terms of sales, marketing, distribution and managed care contracting, it is fair to say that within the big pharma space, they are not the most adept at these functions. Not to say they are inept, but certainly not the machine that some other big pharmas are.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 18, 2015 12:25:11 GMT -5
KC, It doesn't really matter to me what you believe, but go ahead and "shoot the messenger" just because you didnt like the message. Truth be told, I didn't like the message either and tossed it around for several days as whether I would share it with the board. And BTW, this person was not someone I just met. Like I said, he was a friend of a friend whom I knew had started and managed a hedge fund and when we started talking about biotech stocks, I mentioned that MNKD was one of my largest holdings. It was then that he told me that his HF had been short MNKD, owned puts, and as part of the discussion explained his reasons for his short position. Trend Trend, Are you the same "Trend" who's a much more obvious basher on another MNKD message board? If so, you're much more subtle in your bashing here. I don't know Trend personally but he's been around a lot longer than quite a few and from what I've read he's always been a staunch long/and invests/trades off technicals...he makes perfect sense when he says it's always good to listen/gauge the thought process from the opposite perspective...it will either possibly alert you to something that you may be possibly missing or reinforce what you assessed in your due diligence and they cannot process. Not that it matters, but I believe that the conversation took place and like I said in my post, it helps me confirm some of my thoughts on the errs of their ways  |
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Post by petech on Aug 18, 2015 12:26:55 GMT -5
Come on already. First, Trend has been a member and posting here for over two years. His post history does not reveal some hidden agenda. Moreover, the post you cite is not a bash in any way. He shared some information he had, which he did not have to do. The information absolutely stands to reason. So before we put a blindfold and cigarette on Trend and ready the firing squad....perhaps take a step back and think about things from another...more level headed...angle. Plus, if you read what he wrote....SHORTS ARE TAKING PROFITS (forget what they say). The post...is actually validation of the bull argument. |
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Post by gwb on Aug 18, 2015 12:29:05 GMT -5
KC, It doesn't really matter to me what you believe, but go ahead and "shoot the messenger" just because you didnt like the message. Truth be told, I didn't like the message either and tossed it around for several days as whether I would share it with the board. And BTW, this person was not someone I just met. Like I said, he was a friend of a friend whom I knew had started and managed a hedge fund and when we started talking about biotech stocks, I mentioned that MNKD was one of my largest holdings. It was then that he told me that his HF had been short MNKD, owned puts, and as part of the discussion explained his reasons for his short position. Trend Trend I wasn't trying to shoot the messenger but just voicing my skeptical view. KC , Trend has been around many years . We attended the ASM together 2010.2012 and 2014 . I believe he was the 1st or 2nd guy to ask questions at the 2014 ASM if you have the U tube video , you may recognize him . He is a smart guy , and is not a liar . He is just sharing information and I am happy to hear about those discussions . We have to be skeptical of a lot of FUD on these boards , it's good to hear from a trusted source why or why not some one takes a position . I am angry with the lack of good information we get and of guessing what SNY is doing . IMO the CEO change , put our schedule behind . I don't believe all the talk of how smart SNY is , they are just like other companies and F 'ed up . IMO today is more like Feb 3( Launch ) should have been . We are just getting started , and it will be great .GWB |
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