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Post by jbe on Aug 19, 2015 14:03:22 GMT -5
"But the major roadblock to uptake is insurance coverage and hurdles/access and their issue is cost, cost, and....um.....COST. Insurance co's could care less about afrezza and it's benefits - they only care about cost. Insurance companies are not on the hook for quality."
I think Medicare and Medicaid WOULD care about Afrezza long term cost benefits, eventually they should see the long term advantages and give Afrezza preferred status...but, gummint agencies do move in mysterious ways...
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 19, 2015 14:11:21 GMT -5
notamnkdmillionaireGood quote. It would be interesting how few times a drug has been pulled for low sales. I've always thought there would be a huge barrier for a company to do that. Seems like that would foster a bad reputation with the medical profession, especially for something like insulin where getting a patient educated and on a proper dosing regimen is a non trivial expenditure of effort. If SNY kills Afrezza (no I don't take the possibility seriously) why would a doctor even consider putting a patient on Apidra... its sales pitiful compared to the segment leaders.
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Post by BlueCat on Aug 19, 2015 15:19:02 GMT -5
notamnkdmillionaireGood quote. It would be interesting how few times a drug has been pulled for low sales. I've always thought there would be a huge barrier for a company to do that. Seems like that would foster a bad reputation with the medical profession, especially for something like insulin where getting a patient educated and on a proper dosing regimen is a non trivial expenditure of effort. If SNY kills Afrezza (no I don't take the possibility seriously) why would a doctor even consider putting a patient on Apidra... its sales pitiful compared to the segment leaders. Thank you DBC for common sense. Unfortunately, even idiots run companies. I think Pfizer is still owning up to "silly" mistakes. Let's hope for the best. |
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Post by beardawg on Aug 19, 2015 15:49:01 GMT -5
Another point that most miss is that when Pfizer dropped Exubera it was right when the stock market was starting to crash, so they probably were jumpy already.
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Post by nylefty on Aug 19, 2015 16:05:52 GMT -5
I think Medicare and Medicaid WOULD care about Afrezza long term cost benefits, eventually they should see the long term advantages and give Afrezza preferred status...but, gummint agencies do move in mysterious ways... I'm on Medicare and nobody from "gummint" has any say on whether I get Afrezza or any other prescription drug. I'm covered under a drug plan offered by my former employer (GE) and administered by CVS Caremark. No government agency involved. By the way, I'm not a diabetic, but Afrezza is covered by my (non-government) plan, although prior authorization is required. It was also required for the two drugs that I'm actually taking and that process went smoothly. |
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Post by Chris-C on Aug 19, 2015 16:10:09 GMT -5
This thread is excellent proof that the shorts are masterful at creating FUD. Clearly, the prevalence of logical thinking is at an all time low. But, it is often said, the market climbs a wall of worry, and that point is exploited by those who sow doubt and uncertainty.
Someone recently posted a chart from the Forbes article that described the sales and earnings trajectories of all-time blockbuster drugs. All the biggest sucesses took 3-5 years to build momentum (except Sovaldi - and cures will do that because they can command outrageous prices).
So given this typical trajectory, and what we know about Al Mann (a well respected successful entrepreneur who could also have walked away from his personal investment in MNKD after the second CRL) we have folks wondering if Sanofi, (the world leader in diabetes drugs with a $140B market cap, robust financial health, and a desire to insure that it stays in a leadership position for diabetes care) will pull the plug in January, (less than a year into the game since launch) even though its total expenditures for this partnership are far less than Al Mann's stake, a tiny a fraction of their P&L, and Afrezza is a great tandem piece for marketing their new basal insulin Toujeo? (This is not to mention the efforts SNY is making in overcoming the various hurdles, organizing the FDA post approval study requirements, and investing considerable effort in developing marketing and sales strategies). Walking away in January is about as illogical a proposition as one can imagine.
The seeds of fear, uncertainty and doubt have been well sown, and the compost heap provides plenty of nutrient here. As mentioned previously, if scripts haven't shown any headway by January and no information on offshore approvals has been provided, then I'll raise an eyebrow, since SNY will have to reconsider its strategy. But, until then, it's premature to be concerned about script numbers, IMO, and downright silly to be worried about a Sanofi exit.
Chris C
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Post by trenddiver on Aug 19, 2015 17:02:26 GMT -5
FYI - Harry posted this a bit ago. Looks like SNY by undertaking this is making a longer term commitment so to steal the heading of this thread, take it for what its worth. As others noted, if they were about to bail, they would not be doing this. Trend, not sure if you have a way of communicating with your HF contact but it would be interesting to hear their response to this. mnkd.proboards.com/thread/3295/afrezza-safety-pharmacokinetics-study-pediatricPS - as far as the shorts go, my guess is they got more and more excited after each CRL thinking they hit pay dirt. Obvious they didn't do much research on Al Mann. Decades and decades of me to products in the diabetes industry. Some nice innovation but the exception rather than the norm. Perhaps all the innovation was saved up to use in one product. If so, my bet is that Afrezza is the one. I forwarded the link on. I'll let you know what the reply is, if any. Trend
Ok. Here is the reply (from HF contact referring to his analyst comments on the study):
His answer was so outlandishly bearish I couldn't send it. "They (Sanofi) spend more on coffee and muffins at corporate headquarters than this trial will cost them"
That said we are covering another half of our short in the high 3s-4. I think in high 3s risk to reward nowhere near as good. We shorted it at 7.5-8
Trend
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Post by petech on Aug 19, 2015 17:12:12 GMT -5
I forwarded the link on. I'll let you know what the reply is, if any. Trend
Ok. Here is the reply (from HF contact referring to his analyst comments on the study):
His answer was so outlandishly bearish I couldn't send it. "They (Sanofi) spend more on coffee and muffins at corporate headquarters than this trial will cost them"
That said we are covering another half of our short in the high 3s-4. I think in high 3s risk to reward nowhere near as good. We shorted it at 7.5-8
Trend
Ha! "I'm certain it's going down!...but I'm closing another short position." Translation: Please don't buy before I do and jack my purchase price up...it cost me a lot to get it down here and I did that so I could benefit...not you. Very truly yours, Satan (no offense to your friend...meant as a joke). |
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Post by trenddiver on Aug 19, 2015 17:19:56 GMT -5
Ok. Here is the reply (from HF contact referring to his analyst comments on the study):
His answer was so outlandishly bearish I couldn't send it. "They (Sanofi) spend more on coffee and muffins at corporate headquarters than this trial will cost them"
That said we are covering another half of our short in the high 3s-4. I think in high 3s risk to reward nowhere near as good. We shorted it at 7.5-8
Trend
Ha! "I'm certain it's going down!...but I'm closing another short position." Translation: Please don't buy before I do and jack my purchase price up...it cost me a lot to get it down here and I did that so I could benefit...not you. Very truly yours, Satan (no offense to your friend...meant as a joke). Ha Ha. Very interesting translation, but I don't think so. What is interesting though is his opinion that risk/reward doesn't warrant staying short at these prices. |
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Post by petech on Aug 19, 2015 17:29:36 GMT -5
Aren't we saying the same thing? He's saying that even the thought of Sanofi expending funds/efforts to prepare trials as evidence of their commitment is laughable...but what he is doing is saying that he thinks it is foolish to short here by closing out yet another short position. That's the point I was making. So that's a good question to ask him: why do his actions not match his words?
Unless...of course...he is certain it is going to tank...but he wants it to run up so he can short it again....but it is doubtful he can move the market to do that.
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Post by mssciguy on Aug 19, 2015 17:37:39 GMT -5
Aren't we saying the same thing? He's saying that even the thought of Sanofi expending funds/efforts to prepare trials as evidence of their commitment is laughable...but what he is doing is saying that he thinks it is foolish to short here by closing out yet another short position. That's the point I was making. So that's a good question to ask him: why do his actions not match his words? Unless...of course...he is certain it is going to tank...but he wants it to run up so he can short it again....but it is doubtful he can move the market to do that. Very very quickly---- watch the 300 dma over the past 5 years, it does not move much. This is a golden cow for certain entities (and they're not in India). You could write a PhD thesis on manipulation here. Shrekeli, Fauerstein, Karp, the damage, the profit... |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 19, 2015 17:53:19 GMT -5
This shorting business is reprehensible. How can I invest with him  |
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Post by liane on Aug 19, 2015 18:10:00 GMT -5
mssciguy, Why 300DMA? Granted, it's slightly smoother than the more conventional 200DMA, but not enough to make me want to change all my charting parameters.
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Post by jbe on Aug 19, 2015 18:14:19 GMT -5
I think Medicare and Medicaid WOULD care about Afrezza long term cost benefits, eventually they should see the long term advantages and give Afrezza preferred status...but, gummint agencies do move in mysterious ways... I'm on Medicare and nobody from "gummint" has any say on whether I get Afrezza or any other prescription drug. I'm covered under a drug plan offered by my former employer (GE) and administered by CVS Caremark. No government agency involved. By the way, I'm not a diabetic, but Afrezza is covered by my (non-government) plan, although prior authorization is required. It was also required for the two drugs that I'm actually taking and that process went smoothly. Thanks for clarification, I thought Medicare was an insurance plan itself. |
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Post by mssciguy on Aug 19, 2015 18:26:06 GMT -5
mssciguy, Why 300DMA? Granted, it's slightly smoother than the more conventional 200DMA, but not enough to make me want to change all my charting parameters. Well like my father said all the time (just passed a couple weeks ago): "On the road of life, expect a lot of potholes" Any kind of smoothing of data works, 200- or 300- dma, similar fits, same result. Get rid of the potholes and knee jerk reactions and the world would be a better place... isn't there a fund somewhere that can do this.. come on it's 2015..... Sure looks like the time-averaged price is about $6, how does it look to you? |
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