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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 18, 2015 19:08:33 GMT -5
To be quite candid, honestly I sure hope that's true, that they believe that history will repeat itself...after all that has been their thesis after the thesis that it wouldn't get approved or wouldn't find a partner, etc, etc. That means the longs are betting that history will repeat itself with another short thesis going by the wayside...that is how they got themselves into the pickle they're in to begin with. They've had to literally double their short position in the past 12 mos., that does sound like gamblers that are chasing a bad bet and don't know when to say u n c l e. Joey some of your post makes sense, but what I don't understand is the notion that the shorts are "chasing a bad bet and don't know when to say uncle." Haven't those shorts made a good bet and it's more a matter of when they decide to take profits? Please correct me if I'm missing something (I hope that I am). Rather than repeat it again you will get the gist of it from this thread read the sequence and chronological order of events etc.  mnkd.proboards.com/thread/2412/adam-bloated-balance-sheet-compare |
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Post by anims515 on Aug 18, 2015 19:27:23 GMT -5
So he covered his short and has a bet that shares will be under 7 in the middle of January. That sounds like a play on FUD and a bear raid as the "deadline" for scripts to pick up and sanofi to not back out. It just reaffirms my growing belief that we have to wait until after Q1 2016 for things to start to truly unwind and we start to see some major traction. At this pace it makes sense to not look at too much before then
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Post by Chris-C on Aug 18, 2015 20:28:46 GMT -5
So he covered his short and has a bet that shares will be under 7 in the middle of January. That sounds like a play on FUD and a bear raid as the "deadline" for scripts to pick up and sanofi to not back out. It just reaffirms my growing belief that we have to wait until after Q1 2016 for things to start to truly unwind and we start to see some major traction. At this pace it makes sense to not look at too much before then Which may be the reason why another observer I respect, Nate Pile, who publishes Nate's Notes (www.notwallstreet.com) is telling his subscribers and MNKD investors (he is very bullish on MNKD) to chill until January 2016, as that will be the point at which to truly determine how things are going with the Afrezza roll out. |
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Post by nylefty on Aug 18, 2015 21:48:29 GMT -5
Which may be the reason why another observer I respect, Nate Pile, who publishes Nate's Notes (www.notwallstreet.com) is telling his subscribers and MNKD investors (he is very bullish on MNKD) to chill until January 2016, as that will be the point at which to truly determine how things are going with the Afrezza roll out. I received Nate's latest newsletter on Sunday night and he was still bullish ("a very, very strong buy under $7 and a buy under $10"), but he said he was not buying MNKD for "today's" Afrezza sales, but for future sales, three to five years down the road. |
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Post by jpg on Aug 18, 2015 23:25:21 GMT -5
I don't get the fear?
A ex short explains his thinking and panic follows?
What were you expecting someone (who used to be a short and no longer short on top of it all) say? We had no logical reason whatsoever to go short but what the heck a guy we like thought it was a good idea?
This game goes to more than on level. The shorts believe 'bigger and better informed fish. Same with the longs.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2015 8:41:33 GMT -5
I was very surprised when I learned that this friend of a friend was actually on the other side of the trade. And yes, they are gamblers (we are all gamblers in a sense). So I wanted to try to understand why he would be short the stock (or own puts). What I wrote was kind of a summary of the short thesis that was the basis of his short position. It was not about FUD-this is what he and others believe. He wasn't trying to convince me of anything or publicize it, he was just sharing his opinion. One thing I have learned in my old age is to listen to others who don't share your own point of view, especially those who have a lot more skin in the game than me. Look, the bottom line here is revenues, which right now are pitiful and don't even come close to supporting the market cap of Mannkind. Nor do the revenues support the manpower and capital being expended by Sanofi. Sanofi could very easily say "we've done our best, it's a good product but just too tough a sell at this time. We're moving on". Personally I think it's a more likely scenario than the constant banter on this board about Sanofi buying or investing in Mannkind in the near future. Trend Well said. Sanofi can walk away from this and not even sneeze. They didn't sink billions into it like pfizer did (yet) and pfizer pulled the plug. There's a financial reality involved in partnering with someone and sharing revs - it has to be profitable enough to make the venture work. But the major roadblock to uptake is insurance coverage and hurdles/access and their issue is cost, cost, and....um.....COST. Insurance co's could care less about afrezza and it's benefits - they only care about cost. Insurance companies are not on the hook for quality. That's huge - much bigger than I realized before these last few months. So, to get passed the insurance gatekeepers SNY has to reduce the price. Question is, at what number does that happen and is it enough to share between MNKD and SNY? Obviously, many are betting it won't work. I'm not betting it won't work, not my investment style. But I"m not longer betting it will be a blockbuster either. |
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Post by ezrasfund on Aug 19, 2015 8:55:04 GMT -5
"Well said. Sanofi can walk away from this and not even sneeze. They didn't sink billions into it like pfizer did (yet) and pfizer pulled the plug."
There is one important difference. Afrezza is an important advance in diabetes therapy, Exubera was not, and years from now it will be (IMO) the most widely used meal time insulin therapy. So if SNY abandons Afrezza, and MNKD goes bankrupt, the technology will be bought and the drug will then compete against SNY. Pfizer knew that Exubera was a bust, and no one was interested in picking up the ball.
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Aug 19, 2015 9:13:47 GMT -5
I was very surprised when I learned that this friend of a friend was actually on the other side of the trade. And yes, they are gamblers (we are all gamblers in a sense). So I wanted to try to understand why he would be short the stock (or own puts). What I wrote was kind of a summary of the short thesis that was the basis of his short position. It was not about FUD-this is what he and others believe. He wasn't trying to convince me of anything or publicize it, he was just sharing his opinion. One thing I have learned in my old age is to listen to others who don't share your own point of view, especially those who have a lot more skin in the game than me. Look, the bottom line here is revenues, which right now are pitiful and don't even come close to supporting the market cap of Mannkind. Nor do the revenues support the manpower and capital being expended by Sanofi. Sanofi could very easily say "we've done our best, it's a good product but just too tough a sell at this time. We're moving on". Personally I think it's a more likely scenario than the constant banter on this board about Sanofi buying or investing in Mannkind in the near future. Trend Well said. Sanofi can walk away from this and not even sneeze. They didn't sink billions into it like pfizer did (yet) and pfizer pulled the plug. There's a financial reality involved in partnering with someone and sharing revs - it has to be profitable enough to make the venture work. But the major roadblock to uptake is insurance coverage and hurdles/access and their issue is cost, cost, and....um.....COST. Insurance co's could care less about afrezza and it's benefits - they only care about cost. Insurance companies are not on the hook for quality. That's huge - much bigger than I realized before these last few months. So, to get passed the insurance gatekeepers SNY has to reduce the price. Question is, at what number does that happen and is it enough to share between MNKD and SNY? Obviously, many are betting it won't work. I'm not betting it won't work, not my investment style. But I"m not longer betting it will be a blockbuster either. You and others might want to read this old WSJ article about Pfizer walking away from Exubera. I'll post the one paragraph that possibly shoots down the idea that Sanofi will walk away from Afrezza. If Sanofi opts to cancel the trials that are about to go forward, especially the pediatric one, then I'll know Sanofi is gone. Otherwise, the talk about Sanofi pulling out is just silly talk in face of everything they are doing now. www.wsj.com/articles/SB119269071993163273 |
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Post by mssciguy on Aug 19, 2015 9:24:53 GMT -5
"Well said. Sanofi can walk away from this and not even sneeze. They didn't sink billions into it like pfizer did (yet) and pfizer pulled the plug." There is one important difference. Afrezza is an important advance in diabetes therapy, Exubera was not, and years from now it will be (IMO) the most widely used meal time insulin therapy. So if SNY abandons Afrezza, and MNKD goes bankrupt, the technology will be bought and the drug will then compete against SNY. Pfizer knew that Exubera was a bust, and no one was interested in picking up the ball. Yes, all the FUD is just "silly talk" -- those hedgie fudsters probably had professional level training in persuasion theory. Con artists. Do not engage them. AF for one, thrives on attention. No clicks and TST goes to zero and they'll have to create a new shell company for hit pieces. 300 dma is a great indicator, very stable over long periods of time. |
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Aug 19, 2015 9:38:10 GMT -5
"Well said. Sanofi can walk away from this and not even sneeze. They didn't sink billions into it like pfizer did (yet) and pfizer pulled the plug." There is one important difference. Afrezza is an important advance in diabetes therapy, Exubera was not, and years from now it will be (IMO) the most widely used meal time insulin therapy. So if SNY abandons Afrezza, and MNKD goes bankrupt, the technology will be bought and the drug will then compete against SNY. Pfizer knew that Exubera was a bust, and no one was interested in picking up the ball. Yes, all the FUD is just "silly talk" -- those hedgie fudsters probably had professional level training in persuasion theory. Con artists. Do not engage them. AF for one, thrives on attention. No clicks and TST goes to zero and they'll have to create a new shell company for hit pieces. 300 dma is a great indicator, very stable over long periods of time. I do admit there are certain things like financials and future drug under techno etc that are legit issues to discuss only because Mannkind hasn't put them to bed yet. There is still a lot of uncertainty and that's what killing the stock and Management really isn't doing what they could be doing to help alleviate the doubt. I realize there is a lot they can't talk about due to the confidentiality agreement they have with Sanofi, but that's what is fueling the doubt. None of this would be an issue if we saw Afrezza script numbers in the 1000s already. |
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Post by kbrion77 on Aug 19, 2015 9:38:44 GMT -5
I was very surprised when I learned that this friend of a friend was actually on the other side of the trade. And yes, they are gamblers (we are all gamblers in a sense). So I wanted to try to understand why he would be short the stock (or own puts). What I wrote was kind of a summary of the short thesis that was the basis of his short position. It was not about FUD-this is what he and others believe. He wasn't trying to convince me of anything or publicize it, he was just sharing his opinion. One thing I have learned in my old age is to listen to others who don't share your own point of view, especially those who have a lot more skin in the game than me. Look, the bottom line here is revenues, which right now are pitiful and don't even come close to supporting the market cap of Mannkind. Nor do the revenues support the manpower and capital being expended by Sanofi. Sanofi could very easily say "we've done our best, it's a good product but just too tough a sell at this time. We're moving on". Personally I think it's a more likely scenario than the constant banter on this board about Sanofi buying or investing in Mannkind in the near future. Trend Well said. Sanofi can walk away from this and not even sneeze. They didn't sink billions into it like pfizer did (yet) and pfizer pulled the plug. There's a financial reality involved in partnering with someone and sharing revs - it has to be profitable enough to make the venture work. But the major roadblock to uptake is insurance coverage and hurdles/access and their issue is cost, cost, and....um.....COST. Insurance co's could care less about afrezza and it's benefits - they only care about cost. Insurance companies are not on the hook for quality. That's huge - much bigger than I realized before these last few months. So, to get passed the insurance gatekeepers SNY has to reduce the price. Question is, at what number does that happen and is it enough to share between MNKD and SNY? Obviously, many are betting it won't work. I'm not betting it won't work, not my investment style. But I"m not longer betting it will be a blockbuster either. How do you know that? Their diabetes franchise has an uphill battle with Lantus coming off patent protection and Toujeo getting off the ground trying to replace that revenue. Diabetes revenues are 21% of their total revenues you think they are just going to pray these remain constant? |
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Post by esstan2001 on Aug 19, 2015 9:38:56 GMT -5
"Well said. Sanofi can walk away from this and not even sneeze. They didn't sink billions into it like pfizer did (yet) and pfizer pulled the plug." There is one important difference. Afrezza is an important advance in diabetes therapy, Exubera was not, and years from now it will be (IMO) the most widely used meal time insulin therapy. So if SNY abandons Afrezza, and MNKD goes bankrupt, the technology will be bought and the drug will then compete against SNY. Pfizer knew that Exubera was a bust, and no one was interested in picking up the ball. Not only did Pfizer know, Sanofi knew Exubera was a bust before it went to market and sold it's rights to Pfizer. Their actions demonstrate they are smarter; I personally can only conceive that they are very committed and have a long game in play for Afrezza. |
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Post by cjc04 on Aug 19, 2015 10:24:45 GMT -5
Yes, all the FUD is just "silly talk" -- those hedgie fudsters probably had professional level training in persuasion theory. Con artists. Do not engage them. AF for one, thrives on attention. No clicks and TST goes to zero and they'll have to create a new shell company for hit pieces. 300 dma is a great indicator, very stable over long periods of time. I do admit there are certain things like financials and future drug under techno etc that are legit issues to discuss only because Mannkind hasn't put them to bed yet. There is still a lot of uncertainty and that's what killing the stock and Management really isn't doing what they could be doing to help alleviate the doubt. I realize there is a lot they can't talk about due to the confidentiality agreement they have with Sanofi, but that's what is fueling the doubt. None of this would be an issue if we saw Afrezza script numbers in the 1000s already. Great point on the "secrecy" & "confidentially" of the whole deal. I've always looked at it like it was there to protect us (the company's future) and just kept believing in the big picture / long haul....... However, in light of the struggles to refi this debt, due to a low sp, it appears that mgmts silence and lack of avail info is hurting them too. |
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Post by jpg on Aug 19, 2015 11:58:35 GMT -5
Someone should tell those 'insider bond holders' the were fools for not taking the money instead of renewing.
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Post by BlueCat on Aug 19, 2015 13:43:54 GMT -5
Someone should tell those 'insider bond holders' the were fools for not taking the money instead of renewing. I find the extension to September, but still at that 6.80 price, especially compelling. Why would anyone do that this far underwater, unless some catalyst is on the way? If so, would it be legal for the company to, under NDA, share that catalyst with those investors? |
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