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Post by doodyfree on Nov 27, 2015 15:24:42 GMT -5
Logical part wants to wait for next pivot point, optimist wants to set limit buy at 2ish or below after tax-loss, what your trigger?
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Post by doodyfree on Nov 27, 2015 15:49:36 GMT -5
lol I guess I should have added "NEVER AGAIN" as an option?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2015 16:15:47 GMT -5
I would need to know that mnkd has found a serious cash infusion to take financial stress of the 2016-2017 table. The second part is that I need to know what SNY is doing here. Are they just getting things in line for a major push, lowering afrezza price, and upping DTC efforts OR is this their idea of a drug launch and this is what we get?! Or the 3rd option with SNY - are they writing the "dear john" letter to mnkd just waiting for jan 2016 to mail it? These are huge issues to me so until there's clarity on both, the SP could go sub a buck and I still wouldn't buy in yet.
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Post by doodyfree on Nov 27, 2015 16:49:45 GMT -5
I would need to know that mnkd has found a serious cash infusion to take financial stress of the 2016-2017 table. The second part is that I need to know what SNY is doing here. Are they just getting things in line for a major push, lowering afrezza price, and upping DTC efforts OR is this their idea of a drug launch and this is what we get?! Or the 3rd option with SNY - are they writing the "dear john" letter to mnkd just waiting for jan 2016 to mail it? These are huge issues to me so until there's clarity on both, the SP could go sub a buck and I still wouldn't buy in yet. SNY isn't going to reveal their gameplan, so unlikely we will see that type of clarity. In Jan/2016 we'll know whether they're bailing. Cash infusion I'm sure is on everybody's minds, ideally not more dilution (not at these prices). Longer term loan / increase in mann group's commitment / techno deal is best case scenario.
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Post by stevil on Nov 27, 2015 16:53:40 GMT -5
Mine would be another promising TS application, with a great partner, that shows good to solid sales. Or, Afrezza finally taking off the way it should (which should also clear up the concerns below) This will show: Doctor/patient adoption of dreamboat as an ROA FDA not placing impossible limitations on TS applications Favorable insurance coverage. Right now I don't know if these problems will be limited to Afrezza or if we'll go through all of this again and hope Afrezza can carry us the additional time it takes for the next drug to reach success. I might miss the dreamboat and leave a lot of money on the table, but I'm a little less risky now that I see how many headwinds we're really pushing through. Hopefully Afrezza is paving the way and laying the groundwork for all future applications, but until I see either it or a different application have success, I'll remain skeptical the medical community isn't ready for this kind of technology yet. Edit: I'm a gambler by nature (which is why I'm even here) and I like to play the odds. Since I'm taking such a long-term approach to this company and since this company is still so much in its infancy, the risk to the downside is greater to me to invest before the above happens. If this company develops the way we think it will, even $5/share should eventually prove to be peanuts. So I'll wait for this tiny seed to produce a little fruit before I put more in. I understand that not all share my approach, but that's my opinion
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nsmyth
Lab Rat
Posts: 43
Sentiment: Long
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Post by nsmyth on Nov 27, 2015 19:32:20 GMT -5
Mine would be another promising TS application, with a great partner, that shows good to solid sales. Or, Afrezza finally taking off the way it should (which should also clear up the concerns below) This will show: Doctor/patient adoption of dreamboat as an ROA FDA not placing impossible limitations on TS applications Favorable insurance coverage. Right now I don't know if these problems will be limited to Afrezza or if we'll go through all of this again and hope Afrezza can carry us the additional time it takes for the next drug to reach success. I might miss the dreamboat and leave a lot of money on the table, but I'm a little less risky now that I see how many headwinds we're really pushing through. Hopefully Afrezza is paving the way and laying the groundwork for all future applications, but until I see either it or a different application have success, I'll remain skeptical the medical community isn't ready for this kind of technology yet. Edit: I'm a gambler by nature (which is why I'm even here) and I like to play the odds. Since I'm taking such a long-term approach to this company and since this company is still so much in its infancy, the risk to the downside is greater to me to invest before the above happens. If this company develops the way we think it will, even $5/share should eventually prove to be peanuts. So I'll wait for this tiny seed to produce a little fruit before I put more in. I understand that not all share my approach, but that's my opinion I share your sentiment. Waiting for that next upside event that makes this a momentum play to the upside. I am long term long. Still scratching my head as to why this is not growing sales even if just in the T1D space. I know its smaller but there are still millions who could benefit from Afrezza in this population.
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 27, 2015 19:53:11 GMT -5
What I am seeing with both IMS and Symphony data is linear growth in refills. Refills is all that matter. Forget nRx, tRx. prntscr.com/97rx3qOnce I get a good answer for why there would be such near ideal linearity in refills, will get back to you. This kind of linearity in the realm of human experience is almost unheard of.
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Post by chuck on Nov 27, 2015 20:00:57 GMT -5
Either: a. status quo and share price less than $1.00; or b. any new information/data to suggest that afrezza will have sustained and material script growth as well as share price less than $2.00.
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Post by jeremg on Nov 27, 2015 20:17:38 GMT -5
What I am seeing with both IMS and Symphony data is linear growth in refills. Refills is all that matter. Forget nRx, tRx. prntscr.com/97rx3qOnce I get a good answer for why there would be such near ideal linearity in refills, will get back to you. This kind of linearity in the realm of human experience is almost unheard of. It has to be Sanofi with a tight control on things, to what end, I don't know(?) but we are all intimately aware of what the effect on MNKD has been thus far.
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Post by nylefty on Nov 27, 2015 20:35:14 GMT -5
What I am seeing with both IMS and Symphony data is linear growth in refills. Refills is all that matter. Forget nRx, tRx. prntscr.com/97rx3qOnce I get a good answer for why there would be such near ideal linearity in refills, will get back to you. This kind of linearity in the realm of human experience is almost unheard of. Not sure what you mean. This kind of linearity almost unheard of? Please explain.
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Post by robsacher on Nov 27, 2015 20:35:56 GMT -5
lol I guess I should have added "NEVER AGAIN" as an option? You should have also added: "I am adding shares now." Also, another choice should have been, "I am adding shares in the same manner as the top institutional investors in MNKD are adding to their positions."
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Post by robsacher on Nov 27, 2015 20:39:25 GMT -5
I would need to know that mnkd has found a serious cash infusion to take financial stress of the 2016-2017 table. The second part is that I need to know what SNY is doing here. Are they just getting things in line for a major push, lowering afrezza price, and upping DTC efforts OR is this their idea of a drug launch and this is what we get?! Or the 3rd option with SNY - are they writing the "dear john" letter to mnkd just waiting for jan 2016 to mail it? These are huge issues to me so until there's clarity on both, the SP could go sub a buck and I still wouldn't buy in yet. SNY isn't going to reveal their gameplan, so unlikely we will see that type of clarity. In Jan/2016 we'll know whether they're bailing. Cash infusion I'm sure is on everybody's minds, ideally not more dilution (not at these prices). Longer term loan / increase in mann group's commitment / techno deal is best case scenario. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that Sanofi could bail anytime, in any month, in any year, after January 2016 so what's the point of waiting for January to hear anything from Sanofi? If you believe in Afrezza then you believe in its coming success.
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Post by robsacher on Nov 27, 2015 20:55:11 GMT -5
Mine would be another promising TS application, with a great partner, that shows good to solid sales. Or, Afrezza finally taking off the way it should (which should also clear up the concerns below) This will show: Doctor/patient adoption of dreamboat as an ROA FDA not placing impossible limitations on TS applications Favorable insurance coverage. Right now I don't know if these problems will be limited to Afrezza or if we'll go through all of this again and hope Afrezza can carry us the additional time it takes for the next drug to reach success. I might miss the dreamboat and leave a lot of money on the table, but I'm a little less risky now that I see how many headwinds we're really pushing through. Hopefully Afrezza is paving the way and laying the groundwork for all future applications, but until I see either it or a different application have success, I'll remain skeptical the medical community isn't ready for this kind of technology yet. Edit: I'm a gambler by nature (which is why I'm even here) and I like to play the odds. Since I'm taking such a long-term approach to this company and since this company is still so much in its infancy, the risk to the downside is greater to me to invest before the above happens. If this company develops the way we think it will, even $5/share should eventually prove to be peanuts. So I'll wait for this tiny seed to produce a little fruit before I put more in. I understand that not all share my approach, but that's my opinion Stevil, I play poker. There is a scenario where I do not look at my hole card on the last draw. If my cards on the table looked good enough to win before drawing the last card and I am still in the game, then nothing changes on the last card. I bet and raise anyone left in the game. Unless someone has really been lucky enough to draw their flush or straight, I win 90% of the time on that play, maybe more. If I had looked at my card, what would have happened? I either would have folded and have lost what I had already bet into that hand, without really knowing if any opponent had done any better, or I would have confirmed that I was betting a winning hand. Since I was already betting and raising after the last card, then there is no point in looking at the card. Most opponents fold. But, if someone wants to see what I have, then we turn the cards over and we see what I pulled. It rarely gets to that point against decent players. I still believe Al Mann will guarantee that MannKind, Technosphere, and Afrezza will be successful. I still believe that Sanofi will market and promote Afrezza in a successful way in 2016 and 2017. My point is that this may be the time for me to bet and raise. I don't have to look at the hole card. I don't have to second guess my position or my hand.
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Post by stevil on Nov 27, 2015 21:01:17 GMT -5
Stevil, I play poker. There is a scenario where I do not look at my hole card on the last draw. If my cards on the table looked good enough to win before drawing the last card and I am still in the game, then nothing changes on the last card. I bet and raise anyone left in the game. Unless someone has really been lucky enough to draw their flush or straight, I win 90% of the time on that play, maybe more. If I had looked at my card, what would have happened? I either would have folded and have lost what I had already bet into that hand, without really knowing if any opponent had done any better, or I would have confirmed that I was betting a winning hand. Since I was already betting and raising after the last card, then there is no point in looking at the card. Most opponents fold. But, if someone wants to see what I have, then we turn the cards over and we see what I pulled. It rarely gets to that point against decent players. Really good analogy, except I think it actually supports my stance more so than yours, but I catch your drift and I understand what you're saying. Absolutely, I'm already in the hand with my investment and I'm not going to fold- my views aligned very closely to your analogy. I'll keep in what I have and stay in the hand. But I can't allow myself to keep raising when others are betting like they have the royal flush. I have enough in it now to make a good gain, but I'm not confident enough that I have the winning hand when others are showing the strength they are. In this case, I don't hold the "nuts" as they're called. I know I don't own the best possible hand because, in theory, better hands could exist. So I'll be content to take down a large pot if I win, rather than losing everything I own (by adding more) if I'm wrong. Maybe to put it in even simpler terms, to fit your analogy, if someone keeps raising you every time you bet, do you check that card to see how strong your hand really is? Because I feel like that's what the market is doing. Every time I feel good about where MNKD is, something new happens that shows we might not have the best hand at the moment, or at the very least, they feel strong enough about their position that I have to consider I might not have the best hand anymore. So if I feel like I have, say a flush, and someone is betting like they have the full house or better, I don't keep raising them. I simply call their bet and take my hopeful gains, rather than losing everything I have on a solid hand that just got outdrawn. Because, like you said, it happens. Obviously there is so much more to consider in a poker game with odds- most notably the betting style of your opponent, how many players were in the hand, etc. But the same could be said of what's going on with MNKD. There's so much we DON'T know. We don't even know who our opponent is right now to be able to get a read on him...
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Post by robsacher on Nov 27, 2015 21:30:48 GMT -5
Stevil,
Of course you add chips as your hand unfolds, or as you write, "in the middle of a hand". That's how a player makes money in poker. That's the entire point of the game.
As for what others are betting, you will definitely lose if you believe that others have the "royal flush". You will always lose in that scenario. Always. Let me assure you that that is EXACTLY what "others", as you write, want you to believe. That is the entire point of their work.
They do not have a royal flush. At this point, to use a poker analogy, there have been three cards dealt, one up and two down, in a seven card game. What you see is your opponent showing an ace. But, you have no idea what is underneath and you have no idea what cards are still coming.
For what it's worth, most hands lose when showing an ace in the first round dealt.
If you think you cannot win then you should fold your cards. But, don't fool yourself into thinking that the other guy is holding a royal flush because that is not what is happening. It's your fear and your expectation of losing motivating you now.
Remember, more institutional investors are adding to their positions then lowering their positions. Follow and bet like the professionals and you'll make money.
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