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Post by mnholdem on Nov 28, 2015 17:53:27 GMT -5
The Agreement also gave Sanofi rights to the manufacturing process. Sanofi may have been getting a plant ready to go for manufacturing Afrezza before taking Afrezza outside of the USA. Setting up a plant, plus their desire to utilize their own insulin in Afrezza, may be part of several reasons for the delay.
Certainly the back-and-forth nature of negotiating over the final price & details of an acquisition could be another reason.
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Nov 28, 2015 18:43:45 GMT -5
The Agreement also gave Sanofi rights to the manufacturing process. Sanofi may have been getting a plant ready to go for manufacturing Afrezza before taking Afrezza outside of the USA. Setting up a plant, plus their desire to utilize their own insulin in Afrezza, may be part of several reasons for the delay. Certainly the back-and-forth nature of negotiating over the final price & details of an acquisition could be another reason. I very much agree with you. I have always seen the sharing of the processes and the intention to qualify their own insulin as proof that Sanofi was deeply committed to making Afrezza work for them. Sanofi recently made, for the second time, allusion to a possible buy out that had not gone through because of the price, as something that could possibly happen because the circumstances of the market had changed too. My question would be, are they still interested on it and could Al Mann have decided to drop the price to a level acceptable to Sanofi? When news came of the dismissal of Hakan, I seriously worried, and was the closest I have ever been to sell all my position, but then the 8K came out and realized once again none of it makes sense unless we take some serious literary liberties. I do not like not understanding or being able to match reality to the ongoing events and i find it very surprising when Matt comes out in a totally disastrous earnings call and tells us that the company is trying to limit the options of those in the short side of the equation. At the moment there is a clear gap in what seems real and how the company behaves, and that gives me pause to think that there might be other possibilities, other than the most obvious one, so I hang around with, at least, some stock and try to watch the situation closely.
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 28, 2015 19:11:34 GMT -5
if above is true and they have spoke about acquiring; question is what is the amount that both wanted.. I can't see Al saying more than 15 billion.. ($37-38) and can't see SNY expecting to pay much less than 8 billion ($18-19). Will they meet in the middle? Or will Al hold out? .. Or will more scripts, more time, and a higher pps help us. (Like you say). I think so. But like hammer says, look at MimiMed. All and all I'd say 2 dollars a share right now is a steal! :-)))
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Post by mnkdfann on Nov 29, 2015 14:09:27 GMT -5
Unlike many here, I actually made money being long on MNKD. I purchased some shares around $5 and change, sold half my position on the run-up towards $11, and the other half on the way down. I ended up selling some of my shares for below cost, but overall I was still up about 5% on a fast investment.
I've watched MNKD ever since and would like to invest again. If it succeeds, it should do quite well. I probably won't buy on a pivot just because by the time I hear about any meaningful pivot result it will probably be too late. I expect I will buy later this year if the share price drops further as a result of tax loss selling.
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Post by nylefty on Nov 29, 2015 14:22:56 GMT -5
if above is true and they have spoke about acquiring; question is what is the amount that both wanted.. I can't see Al saying more than 15 billion.. ($37-38) and can't see SNY expecting to pay much less than 8 billion ($18-19). Will they meet in the middle? Or will Al hold out? .. Or will more scripts, more time, and a higher pps help us. (Like you say). I think so. But like hammer says, look at MimiMed. All and all I'd say 2 dollars a share right now is a steal! :-))) Meeting in the middle (at about $28) would be fine with me!
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Post by bill on Nov 29, 2015 14:39:05 GMT -5
Will they meet in the middle? Or will Al hold out? .. Or will more scripts, more time, and a higher pps help us. (Like you say). I think so. But like hammer says, look at MimiMed. All and all I'd say 2 dollars a share right now is a steal! :-))) Meeting in the middle (at about $28) would be fine with me! Interesting that the half-way point is not that far off of the 1/2 share SNY price.
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 29, 2015 15:03:13 GMT -5
So longs would receive one SNY share for every two MNKD shares they own PLUS they get to keep their shares. MannKind Corporation, which still has nearly 100 million shares in their treasury, would receive SNY shares worth approximately $1.4 billion which could be sold and the cash put to use for pipeline development of many more TS drugs.
Afrezza would be the first of many drugs.
This is, of course, a scenario that most longs are 1. Dreaming 2. Hoping or 3. Anticipating will transpire.
I like it. Bring it on Sanofi!
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Nov 29, 2015 15:09:00 GMT -5
At this point, given the many unknowns, I would say somewhere between 1 and 2.
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Nov 29, 2015 15:20:30 GMT -5
The two statements I can't seem to shake are Mr. Mann stating that shareholders would be very happy and him disclosing that Sanofi had access to processes. This both were made soon after signing the deal and considering Mr. Mann's history I would expect they were not made lightly. However, it is also true that many things could have change since then and that any contract that Sanofi and Mannkind might have agreed upon did probably had contingencies and might have been subject to conditions or benchmarks. We do know too that both corporation were expecting to see a quicker uptake for Afrezza, so it is very possible that this has somewhat altered whatever agreement they had, to what extent we do not know.
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Post by fedakd on Nov 29, 2015 15:38:39 GMT -5
The two statements I can't seem to shake are Mr. Mann stating that shareholders would be very happy and him disclosing that Sanofi had access to processes. This both were made soon after signing the deal and considering Mr. Mann's history I would expect they were not made lightly. However, it is also true that many things could have change since then and that any contract that Sanofi and Mannkind might have agreed upon did probably had contingencies and might have been subject to conditions or benchmarks. We do know too that both corporation were expecting to see a quicker uptake for Afrezza, so it is very possible that this has somewhat altered whatever agreement they had, to what extent we do not know. This is an excellent post. Al did say that Sanofi was given rights to the process and Matt told him to pretty much STFU as that has't been disclosed yet. If you connect the dots, it's entirely possibly that Sanofi is preparing to go full-scale on this. 1. Results from trial to show Afrezza superiority / change label 2. Ability to marginally drop Afrezza in price to gain access to Tier 2 3. Sanofi's insulin qualification - could this have anything to do with the foreign permit we see for export recently? 4. What about the insulin human EMA approval So many dots could be connected soon
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Post by fedakd on Nov 29, 2015 15:47:44 GMT -5
ezrasfund your poker player logic would apply if MannKind were going it alone to market & sell Afrezza on their own. MannKind is not playing against Sanofi, but with them. You may be making a big mistake thinking that Sanofi has ill intent. ----- The trigger which has motivated me to buy has already been pulled. It's the pattern behind sales of Afrezza. IMO, there is no reasonable possibility, with the kind of results that Afrezza has demonstrated, that sales would remain this paltry if it were not intentional. Based on this, plus other factors, I believe Sanofi intents to buy all the rights to Afrezza, the diabetic GLP-1 and manufacturing rights for the right to the Technosphere process for these two API only and subject to a licensing fee. I also believe that, because of confidentiality requirements that an acquisition is in the works, Sanofi chose to minimize its mention of Afrezza in their November 6 presentation outlining the pharmaceutical giant's future plans for their diabetes GBU. I am not only convinced that Sanofi intends to acquire Afrezza, but that MannKind knows it and may not utter a single crumb of information about it. Mgt are allowed to only issue perfunctory complaints about roadblocks causing sales performance. I continue to accumulate as I am able. ----- What follows (below) is a scenario that I think may also be possible, although I am not as confident that it will go down this way. ----- If I'm correct, MannKind will not only sell Sanofi the rights to Afrezza. It will give also it's approval for Sanofi to buy a >5% stake in the company. If the MannKind BoD gives that approval (note that SNY is currently prohibited from buying a >5% stake without MNKD permission), then something very strange could happen. What if Sanofi/MannKind were to announce that they are dissolving the License & Collaboration Agreement? The announcement would, of course, cause MNKD share price to plummet, thus enabling Sanofi/affiliates to gobble up market shares of MNKD. Then, within 10 days, an announcement would be published that Sanofi is buying Afrezza from MannKind Corporation. The PPS would explode and Sanofi would make enough profit off its purchase of sub $2 open market shares (maybe even sub $1 after the L&CA dissolution PR) to, in effect, pay for the entire Afrezza+GLP-1 acquisition. Those stock purchases would need to be reported by Sanofi to the SEC within 10 business days if over 5%. Hence the timeline. ----- Crazy? Do you think that MnHoldem has been hitting too much holiday wine? Well, I admit that the second scenario is a stretch. Nonetheless, I have become convinced that Sanofi will be acquiring Afrezza+GLP-1 and that it will come sooner rather than later, possibly earlier than February. ----- Bottom line? Sanofi is our partner in this high stakes poker game. Afrezza is a card in what Sanofi thinks will be part of a winning hand for them. Mnholdem, why does Sanofi need to buy MNKD's GLP-1 now that they've purchased the GLP-1 from Hamni for $435 million upfront? Just curious.
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Post by bloodrootfc on Nov 29, 2015 15:48:54 GMT -5
So longs would receive one SNY share for every two MNKD shares they own PLUS they get to keep their shares. MannKind Corporation, which still has nearly 100 million shares in their treasury, would receive SNY shares worth approximately $1.4 billion which could be sold and the cash put to use for pipeline development of many more TS drugs. Afrezza would be the first of many drugs. This is, of course, a scenario that most longs are 1. Dreaming 2. Hoping or 3. Anticipating will transpire. I like it. Bring it on Sanofi! If this is in the works, MNKD needs to close by Jan 1 or SNY could threaten to terminate the contract only to buy the rights in a liquidation.
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Nov 29, 2015 15:54:57 GMT -5
These little kind of inconsistencies, and there are many more that I could cite, are the only reason I am still invested, but the longer we go without any material events the more I simply believe these could end up amounting to nothing more than wishful thinking.
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Post by stevil on Nov 29, 2015 16:33:26 GMT -5
So longs would receive one SNY share for every two MNKD shares they own PLUS they get to keep their shares. MannKind Corporation, which still has nearly 100 million shares in their treasury, would receive SNY shares worth approximately $1.4 billion which could be sold and the cash put to use for pipeline development of many more TS drugs. Afrezza would be the first of many drugs. This is, of course, a scenario that most longs are 1. Dreaming 2. Hoping or 3. Anticipating will transpire. I like it. Bring it on Sanofi! If this is in the works, MNKD needs to close by Jan 1 or SNY could threaten to terminate the contract only to buy the rights in a liquidation. Which is why transparency would be extremely helpful to investors. Unless SNY is contractually obligated to close a fair deal with MNKD, why would they agree to make a deal now? The only leverage MNKD has is that they would sell Afrezza to SNY's competitor. I hope that's enough to strike a good deal. SNY isn't going to make a favorable deal with MNKD out of the goodness of their heart. It's a far better business decision to buy a liquidated company than pay full price for it. SNY would even have excuses to tell future partners as to why Afrezza needed more time to take off and that MNKD just didn't survive long enough to see it happen, so lucky us, we hit the jackpot.
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 29, 2015 17:20:50 GMT -5
If this is in the works, MNKD needs to close by Jan 1 or SNY could threaten to terminate the contract only to buy the rights in a liquidation. Which is why transparency would be extremely helpful to investors. Unless SNY is contractually obligated to close a fair deal with MNKD, why would they agree to make a deal now? The only leverage MNKD has is that they would sell Afrezza to SNY's competitor. I hope that's enough to strike a good deal. SNY isn't going to make a favorable deal with MNKD out of the goodness of their heart. It's a far better business decision to buy a liquidated company than pay full price for it. SNY would even have excuses to tell future partners as to why Afrezza needed more time to take off and that MNKD just didn't survive long enough to see it happen, so lucky us, we hit the jackpot. But what if liquidation isn't one of the cards in Al's hand and SNY knows it?
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