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Post by stevil on Nov 27, 2015 21:51:41 GMT -5
I guess we're talking about different games of poker Looks like you do 7 card stud/omaha whereas I play hold em. And I guess our differences lie in our risk assessment/odds evaluation. You sound like you're a bit more aggressive of a player than I am Hopefully we can both agree that we don't know for sure that we hold the best hand. And hopefully we can also agree that we don't know how strong our opponent's hand is, although they have been betting it like they're confident they have the winning hand. So really, it comes down to how much do you want to risk in that situation? Me? I'm content to take down a sizeable pot and just call my opponent's bluff- if that's what he's doing. There's no way I could fold my hand, but also no way I can justify unnecessarily raising the stakes- when theoretical better hands exist- just because I want to really strike it rich. Not to go too deep into poker theory, but the ones who are really good at poker know all the statistics. Very little of the game is left to chance. Very good hands are only worth so much because once you're getting less for your money than what the odds are, you're making a losing bet, even if you win. For instance, if your odds are 5:1 (20% of winning) and you're paying as though your odds are 4:1 (25%) to see the next card, that's a bad bet, short of a "tell" that you are certain your opponent is bluffing. Statistically, if you do that until the end of time, you'll exhaust your funds as the odds will eventually catch up to you. This post is getting way too complicated haha. Sorry... It basically comes down to different strokes for different folks. If you want to be risky, go for it. Like I said, I've got enough in the game right now to where I'll make a good amount if I'm right, but I'll survive for the next hand if I'm wrong. Thanks for the posts, Rob. It's always nice when the other side supports their opinions. You have a good point in stating that the institutions are adding to their position (although I read an article on yahoo- link below- that said we went from 13 to 11, so not sure who to believe right now... I'll err on the side of those here since they're probably more dialed in than any beat writer). I appreciate honest and genuine dialogue. I don't want the longs to have their own battleground with this stock haha. We're all in this together. While we may have differing opinions on how to proceed, I appreciate you being respectful, researched, and holding support for your opinions rather than labeling me a basher. So, thanks! Link: www.insidermonkey.com/blog/is-mannkind-corporation-mnkd-going-to-burn-these-hedge-funds-2-389357/
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Post by doodyfree on Nov 28, 2015 4:16:33 GMT -5
Poll is now closed, thanks for participating.
I'm going to join the "below 2" buy crowd. BK is not a possibility in 2016, and positive catalyst is inevitable within 1->2 quarters. High probability we will trend back to at least 2.50. I'll use the sale to average down or swing to recover some losses.
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Post by ezrasfund on Nov 28, 2015 9:31:59 GMT -5
The more pertinent poker analogy is with regard to MannKind and the other biotechs and investment houses. At the table is MNKD with a $50 stake playing against SNY, GS, and a bunch of others with a $1000 stake. In this story MNKD does not have the staying power to even see the last card and is forced to fold a potentially winning hand.
You might say that in the real world these players would never end up at the same table because the player with the smaller stake doesn't have a chance, which is my point exactly. Small biotechs simply cannot play with the big boys. And at this table Al's one or two billion is chump change.
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Post by rockstarrick on Nov 28, 2015 11:13:36 GMT -5
The more pertinent poker analogy is with regard to MannKind and the other biotechs and investment houses. At the table is MNKD with a $50 stake playing against SNY, GS, and a bunch of others with a $1000 stake. In this story MNKD does not have the staying power to even see the last card and is forced to fold a potentially winning hand. You might say that in the real world these players would never end up at the same table because the player with the smaller stake doesn't have a chance, which is my point exactly. Small biotechs simply cannot play with the big boys. And at this table Al's one or two billion is chump change. Yet Al Mann and MNKD just brought to market, something that these "big boys" you speak of couldn't. also, I don't agree with your "small biotech" cannot play with the "big boys" scenario, it's no longer just Al and MNKD sitting at this table. There are literally thousands of "afrezza users" living a life never possible before afrezza, and for every PWD currently using afrezza, I have to believe there are several more patiently waiting. To be known as the Company that destroyed afrezza while hanging Al and MNKD out to dry would not be good for any Company looking to thrive in the treatment of Diabetes. The million dollar question is, what is Al Manns rock bottom price, and what is the absolute most Sanofi will pay ?? in my opinion, we are in a very intense negotiation process, and both sides, (Al Mann and Sanofi) have considerations that may cause either Al Mann to take less than he expected, or Sanofi to pay more than they expected. Nobody has the upper hand, and eventually both will win, nobody loses IMO. In the end, I believe the two will meet somewhere in the middle and Sanofi will bring this life changing drug to PWD all over the world. The End.
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 28, 2015 11:31:27 GMT -5
ezrasfund your poker player logic would apply if MannKind were going it alone to market & sell Afrezza on their own. MannKind is not playing against Sanofi, but with them. You may be making a big mistake thinking that Sanofi has ill intent. ----- The trigger which has motivated me to buy has already been pulled. It's the pattern behind sales of Afrezza. IMO, there is no reasonable possibility, with the kind of results that Afrezza has demonstrated, that sales would remain this paltry if it were not intentional. Based on this, plus other factors, I believe Sanofi intents to buy all the rights to Afrezza, the diabetic GLP-1 and manufacturing rights for the right to the Technosphere process for these two API only and subject to a licensing fee. I also believe that, because of confidentiality requirements that an acquisition is in the works, Sanofi chose to minimize its mention of Afrezza in their November 6 presentation outlining the pharmaceutical giant's future plans for their diabetes GBU. I am not only convinced that Sanofi intends to acquire Afrezza, but that MannKind knows it and may not utter a single crumb of information about it. Mgt are allowed to only issue perfunctory complaints about roadblocks causing sales performance. I continue to accumulate as I am able. ----- What follows (below) is a scenario that I think may also be possible, although I am not as confident that it will go down this way. ----- If I'm correct, MannKind will not only sell Sanofi the rights to Afrezza. It will give also it's approval for Sanofi to buy a >5% stake in the company. If the MannKind BoD gives that approval (note that SNY is currently prohibited from buying a >5% stake without MNKD permission), then something very strange could happen. What if Sanofi/MannKind were to announce that they are dissolving the License & Collaboration Agreement? The announcement would, of course, cause MNKD share price to plummet, thus enabling Sanofi/affiliates to gobble up market shares of MNKD. Then, within 10 days, an announcement would be published that Sanofi is buying Afrezza from MannKind Corporation. The PPS would explode and Sanofi would make enough profit off its purchase of sub $2 open market shares (maybe even sub $1 after the L&CA dissolution PR) to, in effect, pay for the entire Afrezza+GLP-1 acquisition. Those stock purchases would need to be reported by Sanofi to the SEC within 10 business days if over 5%. Hence the timeline. ----- Crazy? Do you think that MnHoldem has been hitting too much holiday wine? Well, I admit that the second scenario is a stretch. Nonetheless, I have become convinced that Sanofi will be acquiring Afrezza+GLP-1 and that it will come sooner rather than later, possibly earlier than February. ----- Bottom line? Sanofi is our partner in this high stakes poker game. Afrezza is a card in what Sanofi thinks will be part of a winning hand for them.
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 28, 2015 12:10:15 GMT -5
Interesting theory mnholdem. How does Hakan's resignation factor into this, and the timing of it?
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Post by gamblerjag on Nov 28, 2015 12:33:39 GMT -5
if above is true and they have spoke about acquiring; question is what is the amount that both wanted.. I can't see Al saying more than 15 billion.. ($37-38) and can't see SNY expecting to pay much less than 8 billion ($18-19).
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Post by ezrasfund on Nov 28, 2015 13:35:12 GMT -5
"ezrasfund your poker player logic would apply if MannKind were going it alone to market & sell Afrezza on their own. MannKind is not playing against Sanofi, but with them. You may be making a big mistake thinking that Sanofi has ill intent."
I definitely do NOT think Sanofi has ill intent. To expand the analogy, right now it is as if SNY has said to MNKD, "OK, you only have $50 to bet and you have a pretty good hand. I'll stake you up to $525 [million 3x175] but if you win I, Sanofi, get 2/3 of the pot, and if you loose, you have to pay me back 1/3 of what I put in to your stake.
On the other hand, I have also thought about the scenarios that you put forward, but I assign them to the realm of wishful thinking, remembering that sometimes, dreams do come true.
The scrip count has been strangely consistent, and even if Afrezza was only used by people wealthy enough to pay out of pocket, it seems there would be more growth at this point with the generally excellent feedback that Afrezza garnered. So my fantasy is that Sanofi and MannKind made this heavily redacted and secretive agreement because Sanofi wanted to be sure that Afrezza worked in the real world as well as Al claimed, which is far beyond what the clinical trials showed. There was always the remote possibility that Afrezza would have some problem, loss of effectiveness or adverse reaction that was not detected in the trials. Essentially Sanofi said to Al Mann, if you want top dollar for Afrezza you have to show how good it really is with real world results. But them I wake up and I'm still in "Kansas."
Supporting my dream state is the fact that I just cannot see how MNKD could have become part of the TASE benchmark index funds and gotten those mandatory contribution from index fund investors if there were no assurances that the company was viable at least for some years.
As for Hakan, his new job was making technosphere deals, and we know that is not on schedule. [BTW sorry to have forgotten that Jurgen was made COO, but MNKD still seems to have a split, bi-coastal, personality.]
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Post by rockstarrick on Nov 28, 2015 13:49:51 GMT -5
"ezrasfund your poker player logic would apply if MannKind were going it alone to market & sell Afrezza on their own. MannKind is not playing against Sanofi, but with them. You may be making a big mistake thinking that Sanofi has ill intent." I definitely do NOT think Sanofi has ill intent. To expand the analogy, right now it is as if SNY has said to MNKD, "OK, you only have $50 to bet and you have a pretty good hand. I'll stake you up to $525 [million 3x175] but if you win I, Sanofi, get 2/3 of the pot, and if you loose, you have to pay me back 1/3 of what I put in to your stake. On the other hand, I have also thought about the scenarios that you put forward, but I assign them to the realm of wishful thinking, remembering that sometimes, dreams do come true. The scrip count has been strangely consistent, and even if Afrezza was only used by people wealthy enough to pay out of pocket, it seems there would be more growth at this point with the generally excellent feedback that Afrezza garnered. So my fantasy is that Sanofi and MannKind made this heavily redacted and secretive agreement because Sanofi wanted to be sure that Afrezza worked in the real world as well as Al claimed, which is far beyond what the clinical trials showed. There was always the remote possibility that Afrezza would have some problem, loss of effectiveness or adverse reaction that was not detected in the trials. Essentially Sanofi said to Al Mann, if you want top dollar for Afrezza you have to show how good it really is with real world results. But them I wake up and I'm still in "Kansas." Supporting my dream state is the fact that I just cannot see how MNKD could have become part of the TASE benchmark index funds and gotten those mandatory contribution from index fund investors if there were no assurances that the company was viable at least for some years. As for Hakan, his new job was making technosphere deals, and we know that is not on schedule. [BTW sorry to have forgotten that Jurgen was made COO, but MNKD still seems to have a split, bi-coastal, personality.] Nothing wrong with Kansas, I don't think your fantasy is too far from real !! It makes total sense to me. Good One IMO
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 28, 2015 14:34:21 GMT -5
The more pertinent poker analogy is with regard to MannKind and the other biotechs and investment houses. At the table is MNKD with a $50 stake playing against SNY, GS, and a bunch of others with a $1000 stake. In this story MNKD does not have the staying power to even see the last card and is forced to fold a potentially winning hand. You might say that in the real world these players would never end up at the same table because the player with the smaller stake doesn't have a chance, which is my point exactly. Small biotechs simply cannot play with the big boys. And at this table Al's one or two billion is chump change. Yet Al Mann and MNKD just brought to market, something that these "big boys" you speak of couldn't. also, I don't agree with your "small biotech" cannot play with the "big boys" scenario, it's no longer just Al and MNKD sitting at this table. There are literally thousands of "afrezza users" living a life never possible before afrezza, and for every PWD currently using afrezza, I have to believe there are several more patiently waiting. To be known as the Company that destroyed afrezza while hanging Al and MNKD out to dry would not be good for any Company looking to thrive in the treatment of Diabetes. The million dollar question is, what is Al Manns rock bottom price, and what is the absolute most Sanofi will pay ?? in my opinion, we are in a very intense negotiation process, and both sides, (Al Mann and Sanofi) have considerations that may cause either Al Mann to take less than he expected, or Sanofi to pay more than they expected. Nobody has the upper hand, and eventually both will win, nobody loses IMO. In the end, I believe the two will meet somewhere in the middle and Sanofi will bring this life changing drug to PWD all over the world. The End. That rock, is the bottom line! The million dollar question and the truth as I see it! And I'll let you and mnholdem figure out the rest:-)
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Post by stevil on Nov 28, 2015 14:58:31 GMT -5
Can you explain the "mandatory contributions from index funds" line? I hadn't heard anything was mandatory...
Barring your response which would show MNKD and SNY both knew there would be additional funds, I have trouble going along with SNY wanting to try it in the real world before they buy it and Al being ok with that, unless they threw a huge number at them that they agreed to in contract before doing this.
My reasoning is as follows:
It'd be extremely dangerous for MNKD to allow SNY to play games with MNKD's ball without any promise of return, especially considering that MNKD is a one-trick pony at the moment. Also, I'm not able to follow the logic of those proposing that it was Al's plan all along to sell rights of Afrezza to SNY. Why would he do that? While the 65/35 deal doesn't sound like it would be that sweet of a deal for MNKD- and it may have been more profitable to sell it outright than to collect less than the lion's share for it- why would SNY agree to a price high enough for Al to want to sell it without knowing first that the market felt the same way about Afrezza? Meaning, how is it in SNY's best interest to buy it outright, before it shows signs of blockbuster status IN THE MARKET (not the science), when they would still collect 65% of the ride on the way up? Let's be SUPER generous, and assume that somehow Afrezza makes $1 billion/year in the next couple years... Is SNY really going to risk $10 billion (or whatever number you think would be more reasonable) or so to buy it outright, rather than wait for a couple years to see if it takes off, then spend a little more on a "sure thing"? Is Al going to sell Afrezza for cheap if he thinks that it's a blockbuster?
I just don't think there's any way a deal was in the works for Afrezza to be bought out before it proves itself. I also think that SNY would be helping MNKD with finances (and MNKD would be letting them buy-in) if this was all part of the plan. The fact that we had to list on the TASE for additional funds, to me, single-handedly destroys this theory. SNY should be the one supporting us financially if it's a "try it before you buy it" scenario. They're the ones holding us back from either reaping the profits (again, if it's truly planned to have such meager sales) from Afrezza or looking elsewhere for a better partner. I can't imagine Al would have made a deal with SNY that didn't include them helping us out if they were planning on dragging this out so long...
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Post by ricguy on Nov 28, 2015 15:05:33 GMT -5
Can you explain the "mandatory contributions from index funds" line? I hadn't heard anything was mandatory... Barring your response which would show MNKD and SNY both knew there would be additional funds, I have trouble going along with SNY wanting to try it in the real world before they buy it and Al being ok with that, unless they threw a huge number at them that they agreed to in contract before doing this. My reasoning is as follows: It'd be extremely dangerous for MNKD to allow SNY to play games with MNKD's ball without any promise of return, especially considering that MNKD is a one-trick pony at the moment. Also, I'm not able to follow the logic of those proposing that it was Al's plan all along to sell rights of Afrezza to SNY. Why would he do that? While the 65/35 deal doesn't sound like it would be that sweet of a deal for MNKD- and it may have been more profitable to sell it outright than to collect less than the lion's share for it- why would SNY agree to a price high enough for Al to want to sell it without knowing first that the market felt the same way about Afrezza? Meaning, how is it in SNY's best interest to buy it outright, before it shows signs of blockbuster status IN THE MARKET (not the science), when they would still collect 65% of the ride on the way up? Let's be SUPER generous, and assume that somehow Afrezza makes $1 billion/year in the next couple years... Is SNY really going to risk $10 billion (or whatever number you think would be more reasonable) or so to buy it outright, rather than wait for a couple years to see if it takes off, then spend a little more on a "sure thing"? Is Al going to sell Afrezza for cheap if he thinks that it's a blockbuster? I just don't think there's any way a deal was in the works for Afrezza to be bought out before it proves itself. I also think that SNY would be helping MNKD with finances (and MNKD would be letting them buy-in) if this was all part of the plan. The fact that we had to list on the TASE for additional funds, to me, single-handedly destroys this theory. SNY should be the one supporting us financially if it's a "try it before you buy it" scenario. They're the ones holding us back from either reaping the profits (again, if it's truly planned to have such meager sales) from Afrezza or looking elsewhere for a better partner. I can't imagine Al would have made a deal with SNY that didn't include them helping us out if they were planning on dragging this out so long...I don't know what I believe anymore but maybe Al didn't think he would need it from SNY? Maybe he thought by now we would have another TS deal. Two separate pieces, the Afrezza side with SNY and the TS side with MNKD. TASE maybe has been in their back pocket for some time also?
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Post by stevil on Nov 28, 2015 15:16:31 GMT -5
While I'm not as confident in Al's prowess as some here who think he foresees every obstacle, I do not think Al would overlook that part of an agreement. It's common business practice to draw up a contract that has time constraints and other parameters to ensure MNKD wouldn't get screwed in the agreement. At the very least, there would be additional required funds for any contingencies.
It's still possible that SNY agreed to pay asking price for Afrezza and perhaps the TASE was meant to just be a band-aid to get us until SNY fulfills their obligation to pay up.
Ha, it's almost more fun to try to figure out what's going on than it is for them to tell us, assuming we all get our happy ending. There really should be a book or movie about this if it succeeds.
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Post by stevil on Nov 28, 2015 15:41:11 GMT -5
After thinking about it a little more, there's no way I can go along with this being "a part of the plan".
No way Al puts his company in a position where he has to lay off so many people so SNY can have fun with his toy. It just doesn't make sense.
There's no escaping a couple things
1. Matt/Hakan have expressed publicly that they expected things to be farther along than they are. 2. MNKD is not in great financial shape. Whether BK is a word that should be thrown around or not- at the sake of not pissing off certain posters- let's at least agree we're not healthy financially. This wouldn't happen if it was planned.
I understand that plans can change, but again, Al is a savvy businessman and wouldn't leverage a deal that would screw his company. At the time the deal was made, they were in a good enough position to have been able to name their terms. In this case, I don't think it's fallacious to assume that the lack of a clear plan is evidence of no plan. This isn't little league. These are smart businessmen.
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Post by cathode on Nov 28, 2015 16:08:52 GMT -5
Can you explain the "mandatory contributions from index funds" line? I hadn't heard anything was mandatory... Barring your response which would show MNKD and SNY both knew there would be additional funds, I have trouble going along with SNY wanting to try it in the real world before they buy it and Al being ok with that, unless they threw a huge number at them that they agreed to in contract before doing this. My reasoning is as follows: It'd be extremely dangerous for MNKD to allow SNY to play games with MNKD's ball without any promise of return, especially considering that MNKD is a one-trick pony at the moment. Also, I'm not able to follow the logic of those proposing that it was Al's plan all along to sell rights of Afrezza to SNY. Why would he do that? While the 65/35 deal doesn't sound like it would be that sweet of a deal for MNKD- and it may have been more profitable to sell it outright than to collect less than the lion's share for it- why would SNY agree to a price high enough for Al to want to sell it without knowing first that the market felt the same way about Afrezza? Meaning, how is it in SNY's best interest to buy it outright, before it shows signs of blockbuster status IN THE MARKET (not the science), when they would still collect 65% of the ride on the way up? Let's be SUPER generous, and assume that somehow Afrezza makes $1 billion/year in the next couple years... Is SNY really going to risk $10 billion (or whatever number you think would be more reasonable) or so to buy it outright, rather than wait for a couple years to see if it takes off, then spend a little more on a "sure thing"? Is Al going to sell Afrezza for cheap if he thinks that it's a blockbuster? I just don't think there's any way a deal was in the works for Afrezza to be bought out before it proves itself. I also think that SNY would be helping MNKD with finances (and MNKD would be letting them buy-in) if this was all part of the plan. The fact that we had to list on the TASE for additional funds, to me, single-handedly destroys this theory. SNY should be the one supporting us financially if it's a "try it before you buy it" scenario. They're the ones holding us back from either reaping the profits (again, if it's truly planned to have such meager sales) from Afrezza or looking elsewhere for a better partner . I can't imagine Al would have made a deal with SNY that didn't include them helping us out if they were planning on dragging this out so long...Regarding the "mandatory contributions from index funds", here is what ezrasfund said: "Supporting my dream state is the fact that I just cannot see how MNKD could have become part of the TASE benchmark index funds and gotten those mandatory contribution from index fund investors if there were no assurances that the company was viable at least for some years." I think we all know and understand that MNKD took advantage of a clause in the TASE rules that requires its index funds to purchase and hold some number of shares in a TASE-listed company. The number being held is some function of the market cap of the company, among other things. MNKD used this clause in an attempt to raise capital by offering shares from the company to the index fund managers at a set price which was 97% of the closing price on a certain date (Nov 12, I think). It seems like the index fund managers chose to purchase some of their required shares from MNKD and some on the open market. Everyone who has been paying attention knows this. I don't agree with the view that ezrasfund has about assurances that MNKD will remain viable in the longterm. My personal view is that it will, but I don't think there is any explicit or implicit agreement with the TASE that it will. In fact, I see lots of evidence that TASE management and the Israeli financial press is actually concerned they will not. This evidence includes the (poorly translated) Globe articles AF cited regarding the disinterest from index managers in purchasing shares that could not be loaned or traded and statements from the TASE president/chief regarding closing the loophole MNKD exploited. Recall that the share price of MNKD is down substantially on the TASE since it became listed there. Regarding the claim that SNY is not helping MNKD with finances -- There is a fairly large loan for MNKD available through SNY. You may recall that Matt mentioned that he was fairly surprised with how large the limit of the loan was. This is the financial support that SNY is giving MNKD. They are ensuring that the costs of Afrezza production can be handled in the long-term.
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