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Post by esstan2001 on Nov 29, 2015 7:57:32 GMT -5
Many of us believe Brandicourt was referring to MNKD when he made that comment. That comment and the omission of Afrezza in SNY's major launch list was what got many of us talking about SNY sand-bagging Afrezza so that MNKD's financial situation would deteriorate to the point where they would agree to a SNY buy-out. Based on how SNY's actions lately, it could be that they're playing hardball to be able to buy-out Afrezza at the lowest possible price. If so, it's pretty underhanded IMO, and I think opens them up to a lawsuit later. I think it's more possible that their actions are suggesting that Brandicourt has already decided to give up Afrezza in the new year. Having worked directly with medical device sales forces for over 2 decades, I find it almost impossible to believe that the stagnant script numbers are due only to the various sales barriers (insurance coverage, spirometry, education, etc.) already well discussed. IMO, a motivated US SNY salesforce with a comp plan incentivizing them properly would produce higher script numbers and higher growth just feeding off the low hanging fruit out there right now. Targeting needle-phobic patients, poorly controlled patients with good insurance, progressive/aggressive physicians, etc. should result in much more than 600/week if they are really trying! In other words, Brandicourt has taken his foot off the Afrezza gas pedal and has decided to do the minimum under the Partnership Agreement until he can exit. That would also explain why no large, long term outcomes studies have been announced, no international expansion plans announced, and why Brandicourt gave Afrezza the cold shoulder atu , quickly, to ensure life beyond SNY, and Hakan is not the guy to do that. Prospective partners would be able to close a deal much more quickly with Al because he's the final decision maker anyway. Same for TS negotiations. Hakan stays on just to make sure nothing internally falls through the cracks while Al focuses on the deal making. Hakan takes the fall for letting things get to this sorry point. MNKD desperately needs a partner that will do more than just the minimum short-term activities. I hope there's more under the surface going on in our favor, and a 90-y.o. Al can ride in and save the day. Continuing to use that word "hope" is making me feel more and more foolish every day. The only worse situation would be to sell out at a big loss and then see the PPS recover on some unexpected, positive announcement. The more you use that word 'hope', the more you are sounding like Hakan :-) I really hate your post, because it succinctly lays out the case for the less optimistic alternative; we all tend to fit wonderful theories to the lousy circumstances, and the circumstances also match very well to the case you make. I 'hope' there is a better explanation.
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Post by suebeeee1 on Nov 29, 2015 9:06:01 GMT -5
This thread is about depressing as it gets. Unfortunately, we have no information going forward. Will MNKD get bought? Will it Bankrupt? Will Al take it private?
Who knows. We are in the dark. At $2/share, it makes no sense to sell. Most of us have already lost quite a bit on this investment.
So where do we go from here?
I, for one, am holding on. I know the product is great. I know Technosphere has amazing potential. I know SOMETHING will work out.
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Post by mindovermatter on Nov 29, 2015 10:29:53 GMT -5
If you think it is depressing here, try working at Mannkind. I can only bet many who work for the company are depressed seeing their hard work faltering in the marketplace and seeing other projects languish in the lab as no partners have come forward for other technosphere applications. If there truly is a morale problem, we might end up seeing more people leave. I am sure someone here is watching the job listings page to see if jobs are opening up.
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Post by BlueCat on Nov 29, 2015 10:41:21 GMT -5
Shareholders need to understand that either mnkd is an investment of a lifetime or a bust. Reading complaints of longs and shorts is getting old, either sell or please stop posting hypothetical complaints unless you have data to back up your complaint. To use one of the quotes flying around in the top bar, "Doubt is an uncomfortable position, but certainty is an absurd position." -Voltaire It is certain that we are in an absurd position. Here's the real downer: What's worse than a dastardly plan is that humans making the decisions may be simply making poor ones. Yea, Afrezza works and TS creates an opportunity for an embarrassment of riches. Problem is, without proper business execution, they may never be realized. There's also the "Kobayashi Maru". The mountain may not be surmountable even with best intent and attempt. Or as points made in this thread - the Law of Parsimony - Ockam's Razor. What is most likely is probably true. Do I have hope? I must or would have sold already. And hope is not a good investment strategy. Do I have faith? No. But with the Razor - there are two sides still of this equation. Beyond the facts regarding share price, etc - we also have a company with a large amount of patents, a well-working and approved drug, and now a CEO whose personal wealth is connected to its fate. And for whom, the time clock is ticking. Will this end well for MNKD? Or investors? I really don't know and don't have faith. But I have some hope, though like my stock value, perhaps a lot less. And like my stock value now, its all I got.
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Post by bill on Nov 29, 2015 11:12:15 GMT -5
This thread is about depressing as it gets. Unfortunately, we have no information going forward. Will MNKD get bought? Will it Bankrupt? Will Al take it private? Who knows. We are in the dark. At $2/share, it makes no sense to sell. Most of us have already lost quite a bit on this investment. So where do we go from here? I, for one, am holding on. I know the product is great. I know Technosphere has amazing potential. I know SOMETHING will work out. Donning my rose colored glasses... SNY unlikely to terminate the partnership while they are dealing with a depressed share price, a declining diabetes division, and the Genzyme lawsuit. Doing so would add the potential for MNKD to become another Genzyme and kill partnership interest by other companies for an extended period of time. SNY is probably still interested in buying Afrezza and/or MNKD. Brandicourt's comments at the beginning of their quarterly conference call suggest that's the case. Just have to hope Al and SNY can reach an agreement on price. MNKD unlikely to go bankrupt now that Al is CEO. He has more to lose than anyone, and has previously stated he would be willing to increase the $30M line of credit from the Mann group. Al unlikely to take MNKD private because it would be a near-fatal slap in the face to the TASE investment community. The SEC could pull a Rip Van Winkle, wake up, and take action against the MNKD stock manipulators. Given recent comments by MNKD that may not be an outlandish possibility. Al could be in the process of trying to close the TS pain medication API partnership. The fact it wasn't mentioned during the quarterly could indicate MNKD is in a blackout period because of ongoing negotiations. In fact, disagreement about how to do that could be behind Hakan's departure as CEO. "I'm doing the best I can. If you think you can do better then you become CEO." Al could also complete the partnership arrangement for the TS hypertension API before the end of the quarter as Hakan stated in the conference call. All said, I suspect one or more of the above will occur before the end of the quarter or perhaps the end of the calendar year. There's too much pressure building on Al and the MNKD share price for the status quo to remain in place much longer. OK. Rose colored glasses put away again.
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 29, 2015 12:04:17 GMT -5
To use one of the quotes flying around in the top bar, "Doubt is an uncomfortable position, but certainty is an absurd position." -Voltaire It is certain that we are in an absurd position. Here's the real downer: What's worse than a dastardly plan is that humans making the decisions may be simply making poor ones. Yea, Afrezza works and TS creates an opportunity for an embarrassment of riches. Problem is, without proper business execution, they may never be realized. There's also the "Kobayashi Maru". The mountain may not be surmountable even with best intent and attempt. Or as points made in this thread - the Law of Parsimony - Ockam's Razor. What is most likely is probably true. Do I have hope? I must or would have sold already. And hope is not a good investment strategy. Do I have faith? No. But with the Razor - there are two sides still of this equation. Beyond the facts regarding share price, etc - we also have a company with a large amount of patents, a well-working and approved drug, and now a CEO whose personal wealth is connected to its fate. And for whom, the time clock is ticking. Will this end well for MNKD? Or investors? I really don't know and don't have faith. But I have some hope, though like my stock value, perhaps a lot less. And like my stock value now, its all I got. Urbanski worked for Pfizer. www.newstimes.com/business/article/MannKind-s-loss-narrows-pursues-new-drug-6436211.php After amateur hour with Brandicourt is over, why not court Pfizer. The Danbury facility is in Pfizer's backyard and Pfizer is a real master at mergers and marketing. I really don't get why the company is so scattered. Just do one thing really well, then move on. 15 years of development and in the eyes of the world we're "very niche" Lovely.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 29, 2015 12:19:25 GMT -5
We do have some pretty hard data regarding insurance coverage. It has not changed since May. 2016 formularies are now out. So far none that I have seen appear to have improvement. I'm sure the company already has the exact data for 2016 plans. It seems implausible that the data which will soon be available to everyone on sites like formularylookup.com is somehow a strategic secret, so if there really were any meaningful improvement kicking in on Jan 1 it would be a monumental blunder not pointing that out as they were needing to raise money through a share offering. Sure, there is no way of knowing what is going on behind the scenes with SNY negotiating with insurers, but it is pretty clear that come Jan 1 as people look at their updated plans, it is still only about a quarter of people with insurance that can easily get Afrezza... the same as in May. Dreamboatcruise , you are making a factual statement regarding insurance for 2016 ?( It has not changed since May. 2016 formularies are now out ) Lakers had just posted a number of 2016 plans covering Afrezza in 2016 . Many had no PA and no ST , with tier three . Are you saying theses plans posted by Lakers had the same coverage in May 2015 ? Where do you get information to make that statement ? mnkd.proboards.com/user/1882/recent
- formularies for 2016 are out for most if not all plans as people are in open enrollment and need to make decisions about insurance - I do not believe the 2016 plans are yet reflected in formularylookup.com number. I did send email inquiring but got no response. - The numbers on formularylookup.com have not changed since May... in fact actually they have gone down from 26% covered or preferred to 23%, though someone did have a plausible explanation that this change might have simply been a correction in the data rather than worsening of the actual coverage - I did see discussion of 2016 formularies from lakers and others, which is useful information so that people know which plans people might want to pick in open enrollment. I spot checked several of them and asked others to check against formularylookup.com or 2015 lists... so far I have not found and I don't believe anyone has presented evidence of one where it appears it has changed on a new 2016 formulary. So I can't be 100% sure none have changed. I'd LOVE to see it, but so far no one has indicated they've discovered one where Afrezza has changed tiers for 2016. Has lakers claimed in any thread to have found one that has changed? So I'm making the statement that despite people seeming to actively be looking for change, no one has yet given evidence they found any.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 29, 2015 12:33:30 GMT -5
bill... read this thread and the one that asks when people will buy more shares. This is home to some of the true believers in MNKD. The current share price is not simply a reflection of some illegal manipulation... it is primarily a reflection of lack of buyers. There may be practices that shorts use doing their flash raids that aren't legal, but large open short interest is perfectly legal. Even with rose colored glasses I don't think we should imagine that any SEC action makes people clamor to buy MNKD shares at a much higher price than here. At least I can say as one investors, I MIGHT consider buying under $2 with no change in news about MNKD, however I would no way buy MNKD at $3 if we don't have some positive event that seems to change the reality going forward.
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Post by bill on Nov 29, 2015 12:58:36 GMT -5
bill ... read this thread and the one that asks when people will buy more shares. This is home to some of the true believers in MNKD. The current share price is not simply a reflection of some illegal manipulation... it is primarily a reflection of lack of buyers. There may be practices that shorts use doing their flash raids that aren't legal, but large open short interest is perfectly legal. Even with rose colored glasses I don't think we should imagine that any SEC action makes people clamor to buy MNKD shares at a much higher price than here. At least I can say as one investors, I MIGHT consider buying under $2 with no change in news about MNKD, however I would no way buy MNKD at $3 if we don't have some positive event that seems to change the reality going forward. I agree with you in most respects. However, the lack of buyers is at least partially a result of most people realizing that we're dealing with an artificial share price. You're exactly right that until some positive event occurs there's little point in buying or selling no matter what the price. SEC action could help return the share price to something that would actually represent the true buy / sell interest as opposed to some artificial construct that's controlled by the shorts. It's hard for me to believe that MNKD is actually worth no more than $2 / share, or about $800M for both Afrezza and TS when the market thought it was worth several times that amount this summer. Nothing's really changed since then except scripts have remained flat and there's been no TS partnerships. Scripts should have continued to climb and no one's yet come up with a decent explanation for why they've been flat other than willful suppression by SNY through its ability to control price and marketing. MNKD shouldn't be surprised by that situation since it's all part of what's discussed during the JAC meetings. I suspect that SNY's spreadsheets are showing that their current ultra-conservative approach is likely to maximize their profits over a multi-year period; essentially they're trying to ensure their Afrezza investments are returning the right metrics before they commit more funds or start new initiatives, studies, or launches. The absence of any TS partnerships is more disturbing. What we don't know is whether there's little interest or lots of interest. If lots of interest we don't know whether there is a small difference in partnership valuation or a large one. What's particularly annoying is that I believe the partnership agreement gives SNY a right of refusal on any TS partnership deals. Once someone makes an offer SNY gets an opportunity to match it. That wrinkle may be hampering any efforts by MNKD to develop TS partnerships. Who'd want to spend the time and energy to put a partnership together knowing that if it's any good SNY can simply match their bid and take it away from them? I can only conclude that Al is clearly going to be calling the shots going forward and as MNKD's share price and financial situation deteriorate Al is likely to be forced into becoming more flexible in his asking price for a SNY buy-out or TS partnerships. If he successfully negotiates anything the share price should recover rather dramatically.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2015 13:03:51 GMT -5
bill ... read this thread and the one that asks when people will buy more shares. This is home to some of the true believers in MNKD. The current share price is not simply a reflection of some illegal manipulation... it is primarily a reflection of lack of buyers. There may be practices that shorts use doing their flash raids that aren't legal, but large open short interest is perfectly legal. Even with rose colored glasses I don't think we should imagine that any SEC action makes people clamor to buy MNKD shares at a much higher price than here. At least I can say as one investors, I MIGHT consider buying under $2 with no change in news about MNKD, however I would no way buy MNKD at $3 if we don't have some positive event that seems to change the reality going forward. I agree with you in most respects. However, the lack of buyers is at least partially a result of most people realizing that we're dealing with an artificial share price. You're exactly right that until some positive event occurs there's little point in buying or selling no matter what the price. SEC action could help return the share price to something that would actually represent the true buy / sell interest as opposed to some artificial construct that's controlled by the shorts. It's hard for me to believe that MNKD is actually worth no more than $2 / share, or about $800M for both Afrezza and TS when the market thought it was worth several times that amount this summer. Nothing's really changed since then except scripts have remained flat and there's been no TS partnerships. Scripts should have continued to climb and no one's yet come up with a decent explanation for why they've been flat other than willful suppression by SNY through its ability to control price and marketing. MNKD shouldn't be surprised by that situation since it's all part of what's discussed during the JAC meetings. I suspect that SNY's spreadsheets are showing that their current ultra-conservative approach is likely to maximize their profits over a multi-year period; essentially they're trying to ensure their Afrezza investments are returning the right metrics before they commit more funds or start new initiatives, studies, or launches. The absence of any TS partnerships is more disturbing. What we don't know is whether there's little interest or lots of interest. If lots of interest we don't know whether there is a small difference in partnership valuation or a large one. What's particularly annoying is that I believe the partnership agreement gives SNY a right of refusal on any TS partnership deals. Once someone makes an offer SNY gets an opportunity to match it. That wrinkle may be hampering any efforts by MNKD to develop TS partnerships. Who'd want to spend the time and energy to put a partnership together knowing that if it's any good SNY can simply match their bid and take it away from them?I can only conclude that Al is clearly going to be calling the shots going forward and as MNKD's share price and financial situation deteriorate Al is likely to be forced into becoming more flexible in his asking price for a SNY buy-out or TS partnerships. If he successfully negotiates anything the share price should recover rather dramatically. I believe thats holds true only Afrezza and GLP-1 and nothing else
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 29, 2015 13:21:36 GMT -5
bill... it may be hard for you to believe, but I assume you aren't gobbling up shares at this price. I too would like to not believe it is only worth our current price, but faith in the fact it is worth more is not sufficient to warrant buying more at this price. Even if I claimed to have faith, my actions (lack of buying) would speak louder than the words. The thing that has changed from summer is the real prospect that additional capital will need to be raised and that it will be at a price leading to meaningful extra dilution. I can say for one, that my impression has changed since summer. I thought that the debt would have been resolved in a way that left us in a much stronger cash position. It appears that the debt resolution and the TASE fund sale did not go as planned. The CEO departing in the midst of all of this seems to indicate a problem situation... though it may be a needed step to improvement.
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Post by fedakd on Nov 29, 2015 14:16:55 GMT -5
How is it possible that Sanofi pays $435M upfront to Hanmi for a drug STILL IN DEVELOPMENT as well as $3.5 billion euros if it achieves certain sales milestones. We have an FDA approved drug and received a fraction of this!!!? We literally got hosed on our deal with Sanofi!!. It was such a bad deal. Something tells me that Sanofi ended up purchasing this one because they weren't prepared to pay what Al was asking for MNKD's GLP-1 drug. Maybe Al wasn't going to make the same mistake twice. Keep in mind that Sanofi was looking for a GLP-1 drug way back in February 2014. Mannkind had one, and it had Afrezza. It feels that the licensing agreement was completed because Al wouldn't budge on his price or was asking too much. From a precedent transactions analysis, things just don't seem right. We have the only FDA approved drug, delivering the ONLY monomeric mealtime insulin and yet we languish. I hope Al is ready to get this deal done as its getting a bit ridiculous already. www.visiongain.com/blog/index.php/sanofi-hoping-to-add-oral-glp-1-to-diabetes-offering/www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-05/sanofi-inks-435-million-diabetes-deal-with-south-korea-s-hanmi"As part of the pact, Sanofi will receive a worldwide license to develop and commercialize three investigational diabetes treatments, including a drug called efpeglenatide that belongs to a newer class of medicines called GLP1-agnostics that are used to control blood sugar. Hanmi will keep an exclusive option to co-commercialize the products in Korea and China." We can only hope Sanofi's ADR deposit with Morgan Stanley is or Afrezza. I'll take 1 for 2 with SNY right now.
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Post by bill on Nov 29, 2015 14:34:57 GMT -5
I agree with you in most respects. However, the lack of buyers is at least partially a result of most people realizing that we're dealing with an artificial share price. You're exactly right that until some positive event occurs there's little point in buying or selling no matter what the price. SEC action could help return the share price to something that would actually represent the true buy / sell interest as opposed to some artificial construct that's controlled by the shorts. It's hard for me to believe that MNKD is actually worth no more than $2 / share, or about $800M for both Afrezza and TS when the market thought it was worth several times that amount this summer. Nothing's really changed since then except scripts have remained flat and there's been no TS partnerships. Scripts should have continued to climb and no one's yet come up with a decent explanation for why they've been flat other than willful suppression by SNY through its ability to control price and marketing. MNKD shouldn't be surprised by that situation since it's all part of what's discussed during the JAC meetings. I suspect that SNY's spreadsheets are showing that their current ultra-conservative approach is likely to maximize their profits over a multi-year period; essentially they're trying to ensure their Afrezza investments are returning the right metrics before they commit more funds or start new initiatives, studies, or launches. The absence of any TS partnerships is more disturbing. What we don't know is whether there's little interest or lots of interest. If lots of interest we don't know whether there is a small difference in partnership valuation or a large one. What's particularly annoying is that I believe the partnership agreement gives SNY a right of refusal on any TS partnership deals. Once someone makes an offer SNY gets an opportunity to match it. That wrinkle may be hampering any efforts by MNKD to develop TS partnerships. Who'd want to spend the time and energy to put a partnership together knowing that if it's any good SNY can simply match their bid and take it away from them?I can only conclude that Al is clearly going to be calling the shots going forward and as MNKD's share price and financial situation deteriorate Al is likely to be forced into becoming more flexible in his asking price for a SNY buy-out or TS partnerships. If he successfully negotiates anything the share price should recover rather dramatically. I believe thats holds true only Afrezza and GLP-1 and nothing else Here's the text I was using as a reference from the partnership agreement. I assumed the [...***...] referred to all Technosphere-based products as opposed to just Afrezza or GLP-1. 2.7 […***…] Product. (a) During the Term, if any of the Licensors or any MannKind Affiliate proposes to grant any Third Party (which, solely for purposes of this Section 2.7, shall mean any Person other than a MannKind Affiliate), a license or other rights to develop or commercially exploit any product […***…] (each, a “ […***…] Product ”), then, prior to granting any such license or other rights, MannKind shall so notify Sanofi in writing and shall promptly establish and provide Sanofi with access to an electronic data room containing any study results and data generated by or on behalf of the Licensors or MannKind Affiliates with respect to such […***…] Product (the “Data Room” ). Subject to the terms and conditions of this Agreement, MannKind hereby grants to Sanofi, during the […***…]-day period beginning on the date the Data Room is first accessible by Sanofi (the “ Initial Election Period ”), the first right to negotiate with the Licensors for the grant to Sanofi or any of its Affiliates of a license under all intellectual property of the Licensors or the MannKind Affiliates pertaining to such […***…] Product (a “ Transaction ”), and the Licensors agree not to grant and cause the MannKind Affiliates not to grant any Third Party access to the Data Room, or a license or other rights to develop or commercially exploit such […***…] Product during the Initial Election Period.
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 29, 2015 14:44:56 GMT -5
[...***...] Product likely means Products related to diabetes treatment. I cannot see MannKind giving up the right to negotiate agreements for non-diabetes TS drugs. No [...***...] way!
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Post by bill on Nov 29, 2015 15:07:09 GMT -5
[...***...] Product likely means Products related to diabetes treatment. I cannot see MannKind giving up the right to negotiate agreements for non-diabetes TS drugs. No [...***...] way! I like your interpretation better, and believe you're probably correct as well. Thanks!
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