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Post by chuck on Dec 8, 2015 15:52:40 GMT -5
My experience with biotech is that silence equals bad news 90% of the time. Good news gets put out immediately in a press release or at the very least in the quarterly update.
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Post by hankscorpio7 on Dec 8, 2015 16:03:32 GMT -5
He is saying FUD 8 out of 11 posts in thread.
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Post by james on Dec 8, 2015 18:16:21 GMT -5
Agreed. My FUD detector might need help.
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Post by jeremg on Dec 8, 2015 18:51:21 GMT -5
My experience with biotech is that silence equals bad news 90% of the time. Good news gets put out immediately in a press release or at the very least in the quarterly update. I would not count on this being the case with how PR incompetent MNKD is. Some here say the financing situation has already been resolved and if this is the case they have simply chosen not to share this news(?) with the public, in usual MNKD fashion.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 8, 2015 19:05:03 GMT -5
You have to be kidding. What response are you expecting the company to put out? Are they going to publish a paper on their strategic plan? Are they going to tell us which companies they are negotiating with for TS? Of course not. They are not going to say anything because they should not do so. You will know what is happening when there is a material development to announce. That may be months before it happens next. Well, you've speculated they have more cash than what is generally known. What possible reason would they have to be sitting silent on that info? I don't think anyone expects a detailed plan of negotiations and such, but a general business plan giving confidence in their liquidity and to what extent they foresee further dilution is something that shareholders should be able to expect. They go around to investor conferences and yet they don't actually give any information that would allow a potential investor to gauge the value of the companies shares.
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Post by jpg on Dec 8, 2015 19:07:10 GMT -5
Mannkind misrepresenting (for the worst) its financial position would be illogical and potentially material no? If they have money wouldn't they be obliged to divulge?
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Post by james on Dec 8, 2015 20:41:59 GMT -5
My experience with biotech is that silence equals bad news 90% of the time. Good news gets put out immediately in a press release or at the very least in the quarterly update. I would not count on this being the case with how PR incompetent MNKD is. Some here say the financing situation has already been resolved and if this is the case they have simply chosen not to share this news(?) with the public, in usual MNKD fashion. I should clear up one of my opinions here. If MNKD did sell more than 13M shares on Nov. 11 or Nov. 12, then that does not really mean that the financing situation is resolved. It simply would have bought another 6-9 months beyond current expectations. Resolving the financing situation would look more like $2-300M cash on hand and considerably less debt.
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Post by james on Dec 8, 2015 21:11:34 GMT -5
Mannkind misrepresenting (for the worst) its financial position would be illogical and potentially material no? If they have money wouldn't they be obliged to divulge? Yes they are obligated to report to us, but only at certain points and through specific channels, which they have done. The only misrepresentation at present is the speculations floating around from other parties that they do or do not have a short term cash problem. For that matter, my speculations are as equally likely to be a misrepresentation as those given out by any other non-company source. But, what company gives a mid-quarter statement on cash? I've never seen this done. The quarterly update and conference call were issued on Nov.9, prior to the sale of shares to the TASE indices. The intention that was announced at that time and in the 8-K filing was to sell up to 50M shares which could have raised as much as $150M. I have done some very rough calculations on the expected share demand from the TASE indices at the time of the offering and it comes to around 45M. Sketchy as it is, this does correlate with the information provided by MNKD. From the 8-K: "The actual number of shares to be sold in the offering will be based on the number of shares of the Company's common stock the purchasers are required to hold upon the Company's common stock entering into the specified indexes on the TASE, subject to reduction on a pro rata basis among the purchasers based on their respective purchase commitments if the aggregate number of shares to be sold in the offering would otherwise exceed 50,000,000 shares." There was no subsequent 8-K issue, but the press release after closing the sale indicated that 13,852,435 shares had been sold directly and did not discuss exactly how many shares would be taken up in total. Here is what was said at the time: "A portion of the index funds' required holdings have now been purchased directly from the company. These transactions provide MannKind with needed near term liquidity to support Afrezza operations and Technosphere developments, while minimizing shareholder dilution. Remaining demand from the TASE index funds' long-term holding requirements are expected to be satisfied through open market purchases, which must be completed before Sunday, November 15, 2015." MNKD described exactly what happened in the direct sale in the press release. What is not discussed in any fashion is how the remaining ~30M shares that the indexes should have intended to purchase were acquired other than through the open market. Other than their own actions, MNKD would not know the specifics of this and so they would not have attempted to describe it. Given that there was no appreciable affect on the share price in that time frame, it's logical to assume that those shares must have come from some very large holders. We can see that volume between Nov. 11 an Nov. 12 was over 65M shares. As far as I know, there are only two entities that hold sufficient shares to satisfy this kind of demand: Al Mann and MNKD. I do believe Al would have been obligated to report such a sale (and probably prohibited from such). MNKD would not have been obligated to provide any additional information in this regard other than what was already disclosed in their filings. So, the question can be asked, what benefit would it be to MNKD to announce that they sold another quantity on the open market? I suppose that would have calmed current fears, but in my experience, companies do not typically make such announcements regarding their ATM sales as these can be ongoing activities. There is another question in this regard that would need an answer. As of the end of the 3rd quarter, there was a limit on ATM sales at $50M. This was specified in the form 424B5 issued on 9/4/2015 and referred to in the 10-Q. I'm not clear on whether an amendment to this would have been necessary as a superseding form 424B5 issued 11/9/2015 registered 50M shares at a maximum $140M as definitely available for the direct sale. I think you would need a securities lawyer to determine if some portion of these could have also been used in ATM placements, or whether the limit remained at $50M (which stood at $37M at the close of September due to exercising a portion of this between 9/4 and 9/30). If you want to take an even more optimistic view, MNKD could have actually exercised the remainder of the $37M ATM in October at around $3.50/share and had no obligation to inform us so far. As long as those 50M shares that were registered can have been used in the open market, it may even be possible that the company has $200M cash on hand given the outside of the envelope from exercising everything on these filings and we would not know it nor would the company have told us. Get a grip though, I don't expect that's the case... One way or another, the truth about what happened will become much more evident come February.
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Post by slugworth008 on Dec 8, 2015 21:19:10 GMT -5
mssciguy
Off topic---- for a quick laugh, what do you think Trump would be saying about Sanofi (please don't post any obscenities)
"Are you kidding me, are you kidding me" it's simple smart marketing" My casino's are second rate but my marketing is first class - and you know they are always booked solid" "If they can't figure it out as President I'll take the company over by executive order and make the shareholders a lot of money - because..you know that's what I do - I make money. And I'll kick them out of the country too"
Trump
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Post by BlueCat on Dec 8, 2015 21:59:48 GMT -5
It is likely material news will be coming within months, possibly before next quarterly. In particular, if there is a new CEO to be announced.
Whatever the topic, it will be focused on the material news, to be certain. But the company may opportunistically use it to slide in a note about the health of the company, especially if new CEO interviews/media tour is conducted.
Or maybe wishful thinking on my part.
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Post by jpg on Dec 9, 2015 11:34:54 GMT -5
Mannkind misrepresenting (for the worst) its financial position would be illogical and potentially material no? If they have money wouldn't they be obliged to divulge? Yes they are obligated to report to us, but only at certain points and through specific channels, which they have done. The only misrepresentation at present is the speculations floating around from other parties that they do or do not have a short term cash problem. For that matter, my speculations are as equally likely to be a misrepresentation as those given out by any other non-company source. But, what company gives a mid-quarter statement on cash? I've never seen this done. The quarterly update and conference call were issued on Nov.9, prior to the sale of shares to the TASE indices. The intention that was announced at that time and in the 8-K filing was to sell up to 50M shares which could have raised as much as $150M. I have done some very rough calculations on the expected share demand from the TASE indices at the time of the offering and it comes to around 45M. Sketchy as it is, this does correlate with the information provided by MNKD. From the 8-K: "The actual number of shares to be sold in the offering will be based on the number of shares of the Company's common stock the purchasers are required to hold upon the Company's common stock entering into the specified indexes on the TASE, subject to reduction on a pro rata basis among the purchasers based on their respective purchase commitments if the aggregate number of shares to be sold in the offering would otherwise exceed 50,000,000 shares." There was no subsequent 8-K issue, but the press release after closing the sale indicated that 13,852,435 shares had been sold directly and did not discuss exactly how many shares would be taken up in total. Here is what was said at the time: "A portion of the index funds' required holdings have now been purchased directly from the company. These transactions provide MannKind with needed near term liquidity to support Afrezza operations and Technosphere developments, while minimizing shareholder dilution. Remaining demand from the TASE index funds' long-term holding requirements are expected to be satisfied through open market purchases, which must be completed before Sunday, November 15, 2015." MNKD described exactly what happened in the direct sale in the press release. What is not discussed in any fashion is how the remaining ~30M shares that the indexes should have intended to purchase were acquired other than through the open market. Other than their own actions, MNKD would not know the specifics of this and so they would not have attempted to describe it. Given that there was no appreciable affect on the share price in that time frame, it's logical to assume that those shares must have come from some very large holders. We can see that volume between Nov. 11 an Nov. 12 was over 65M shares. As far as I know, there are only two entities that hold sufficient shares to satisfy this kind of demand: Al Mann and MNKD. I do believe Al would have been obligated to report such a sale (and probably prohibited from such). MNKD would not have been obligated to provide any additional information in this regard other than what was already disclosed in their filings. So, the question can be asked, what benefit would it be to MNKD to announce that they sold another quantity on the open market? I suppose that would have calmed current fears, but in my experience, companies do not typically make such announcements regarding their ATM sales as these can be ongoing activities. There is another question in this regard that would need an answer. As of the end of the 3rd quarter, there was a limit on ATM sales at $50M. This was specified in the form 424B5 issued on 9/4/2015 and referred to in the 10-Q. I'm not clear on whether an amendment to this would have been necessary as a superseding form 424B5 issued 11/9/2015 registered 50M shares at a maximum $140M as definitely available for the direct sale. I think you would need a securities lawyer to determine if some portion of these could have also been used in ATM placements, or whether the limit remained at $50M (which stood at $37M at the close of September due to exercising a portion of this between 9/4 and 9/30). If you want to take an even more optimistic view, MNKD could have actually exercised the remainder of the $37M ATM in October at around $3.50/share and had no obligation to inform us so far. As long as those 50M shares that were registered can have been used in the open market, it may even be possible that the company has $200M cash on hand given the outside of the envelope from exercising everything on these filings and we would not know it nor would the company have told us. Get a grip though, I don't expect that's the case... One way or another, the truth about what happened will become much more evident come February. Thank you for the detailed explanation. I would agree that companies don't normally provide mid quarter updates but would point out that companies that are nearly bankrupt are not in normal circomstances. The listing on Tase was anything but conventional and any news about their cash position is highly material as far as I am concerned. I do not consider them as being 'investible' as long as this cash issue is not resolved. The market seems to agree. If they really have the cash to last 1 year and they aren't telling than they are not very wise managers. regardless of the reasons for their action (or lack of) they are acting as if they are in turmoil. The CEO issue isn't exactly reassuring either... Basically I'm saying that the destruction of shareholder value in part because of the cash issue makes this a very material issue that management should deal with.
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Post by kball on Dec 9, 2015 11:41:26 GMT -5
Ok How's this for an optimistic spin on things. Not sure what the required reporting lag is for Mannkind and Sanofi to disclose they have agreed to Sanofi taking >5% stake
but this could be one way Sanofi accumulates cheaper shares before purchasing the remaining float shortly after publicly disclosing intent to do so at whatever secret price has been agreed upon.
Delusional? Probably
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Post by trondisc on Dec 9, 2015 11:45:08 GMT -5
.jpg - This tanks 5-10% per day. If huge funds/institutions/etc believed in this company, they would be buying at these levels hand over fist. They are not. I don't believe Al Mann has an ace up his sleeve or any Plan B for next year. Thus I think the worst news is just around the corner in the coming months. I'm so upset that diabetics won't {?} be able to experience Afrezza after 2016. I'm long and beyond pissed off that as the PPS dwindles, the silence from MannKind and Sanofi is deafening.
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Post by miracle331 on Dec 9, 2015 11:47:51 GMT -5
All time low now?
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Post by trondisc on Dec 9, 2015 12:21:25 GMT -5
Ok How's this for an optimistic spin on things. Not sure what the required reporting lag is for Mannkind and Sanofi to disclose they have agreed to Sanofi taking >5% stake but this could be one way Sanofi accumulates cheaper shares before purchasing the remaining float shortly after publicly disclosing intent to do so at whatever secret price has been agreed upon. Delusional? Probably Did MNKD receive a termination notice from SNY already? Sanofi must inform Mannkind 90 days in advance I thought. This would explain the rapid acceleration downward in the recent last few weeks? The CEO resignation alone would not cause MannKind to crash this far in such fast and short fashion.
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