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Post by fedakd on Dec 9, 2015 12:28:58 GMT -5
Ok How's this for an optimistic spin on things. Not sure what the required reporting lag is for Mannkind and Sanofi to disclose they have agreed to Sanofi taking >5% stake but this could be one way Sanofi accumulates cheaper shares before purchasing the remaining float shortly after publicly disclosing intent to do so at whatever secret price has been agreed upon. Delusional? Probably Did MNKD receive a termination notice from SNY already? Sanofi must inform Mannkind 90 days in advance I thought. This would explain the rapid acceleration downward in the recent last few weeks? The CEO resignation alone would not cause MannKind to crash this far in such fast and short fashion. Mannkind has to inform us when they receive the notice. That doesn't preclude the idea that employees from Sanofi haven't told the mighty shorts to take this down. I am blown away by the rapid acceleration downward of the price. Is this year-end tax selling, or something else. Doesn't feel good.
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Post by jeremg on Dec 9, 2015 12:30:01 GMT -5
trondisc MNKD has not received a termination notice as this would DEFINITELY be considered material news. I think you are confused by how this stock works on WS, there hasn't really been any material news that has caused this ongoing slaughter of share price, things are the way they've always been (which the fanatics would use to argue in their favor) and this is enough for the trajectory to remain downward. The stock price does not sit idle because the flow of information stops, the street hates uncertainty! Companies must prove their value to investors and WS and the mentality on the street is more of a "guilty until proven innocent". We are simply on a trajectory as we have been for a while now and we need VERY positive news to break this downwards momentum, companies are not awarded value based on a partnership NOT being terminated.
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Post by factspls88 on Dec 9, 2015 12:31:42 GMT -5
Did MNKD receive a termination notice from SNY already? Sanofi must inform Mannkind 90 days in advance I thought. This would explain the rapid acceleration downward in the recent last few weeks? The CEO resignation alone would not cause MannKind to crash this far in such fast and short fashion. If there were a termination notice from or expected from SNY, it doesn't explain the deal with Hakan, which I still haven't been able to figure out.
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Post by trondisc on Dec 9, 2015 12:34:29 GMT -5
fedakd - This isn't your typical year-end-loss tax selling. Something is seriously off. I'd feel better if I knew Al Mann had a plan beyond Sanofi's 2016 indecision. I don't believe he does. So sad to think 10+ years of R&D down the drain and diabetics will not be able to experience Afrezza years from now.
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Post by fedakd on Dec 9, 2015 12:46:32 GMT -5
fedakd - This isn't your typical year-end-loss tax selling. Something is seriously off. I'd feel better if I knew Al Mann had a plan beyond Sanofi's 2016 indecision. I don't believe he does. So sad to think 10+ years of R&D down the drain and diabetics will not be able to experience Afrezza years from now. Tron, I agree with you. I bought MNKD about 6 months before ADCOM. I did my research and though wow, what an amazing idea. If this product gets approved, it could be life-changing for diabetics. Never in my wildest dreams could I EVER have predicted how that story would play out over the next two years up until now. I have never seen such rapid evaporation of share price for a product that simply cannot be replicated. Can you imagine what Al Mann must think? $1 billion to develop this drug and the market cap sits around ~600M (for everything)... What I still can't wrap my head around is how the shorts ALWAYS KNEW. They always kept adding to their positions and were always SO CERTAIN. How could they have been that far out before drug launch? It feels like after ADCOM and approval MNKD was set. Admittedly, the deal with Sanofi was horrific. I am sure there will be a class action somewhere in all of this. Hakan's departure? Not a clue what happened there. So many lies and so many cover-ups. I can't think about this anymore, its driving me crazy.
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Post by jeremg on Dec 9, 2015 12:50:51 GMT -5
fedakd, it's not that the shorts ALWAYS KNEW, they simply took control and hijacked the timeline of events. GS's price target was a self-fulfilling prophecy, and when you control the circumstance surrounding the events which are to unfold, you control the end.
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Post by kbrion77 on Dec 9, 2015 12:51:33 GMT -5
fedakd - This isn't your typical year-end-loss tax selling. Something is seriously off. I'd feel better if I knew Al Mann had a plan beyond Sanofi's 2016 indecision. I don't believe he does. So sad to think 10+ years of R&D down the drain and diabetics will not be able to experience Afrezza years from now. Tron, I agree with you. I bought MNKD about 6 months before ADCOM. I did my research and though wow, what an amazing idea. If this product gets approved, it could be life-changing for diabetics. Never in my wildest dreams could I EVER have predicted how that story would play out over the next two years up until now. I have never seen such rapid evaporation of share price for a product that simply cannot be replicated. Can you imagine what Al Mann must think? $1 billion to develop this drug and the market cap sits around ~600M (for everything)... What I still can't wrap my head around is how the shorts ALWAYS KNEW. They always kept adding to their positions and were always SO CERTAIN. How could they have been that far out before drug launch? It feels like after ADCOM and approval MNKD was set. Admittedly, the deal with Sanofi was horrific. I am sure there will be a class action somewhere in all of this. Hakan's departure? Not a clue what happened there. So many lies and so many cover-ups. I can't think about this anymore, its driving me crazy. Wondering if MNKD over the last 10 years has been the easiest money they have ever made in an investment? Also funny how we probably won't get over 10% drop today to trip the circuit.
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Post by trondisc on Dec 9, 2015 12:53:56 GMT -5
I bought MNKD about 6 months before ADCOM. I did my research and though wow, what an amazing idea. If this product gets approved, it could be life-changing for diabetics. Never in my wildest dreams could I EVER have predicted how that story would play out over the next two years up until now. I have never seen such rapid evaporation of share price for a product that simply cannot be replicated. Can you imagine what Al Mann must think? $1 billion to develop this drug and the market cap sits around ~600M (for everything)... What I still can't wrap my head around is how the shorts ALWAYS KNEW. They always kept adding to their positions and were always SO CERTAIN. How could they have been that far out before drug launch? It feels like after ADCOM and approval MNKD was set. Admittedly, the deal with Sanofi was horrific. I am sure there will be a class action somewhere in all of this. Hakan's departure? Not a clue what happened there. So many lies and so many cover-ups. I can't think about this anymore, its driving me crazy. 100% spot on. What makes the least amount of sense about this MannKind debacle is that they have a product which is truly revolutionary and has effectiveness proven better than all other Type 1 & Type 2 products. Sad to think the science behind MannKind may not prevail. I'm so distraught.
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Post by jpg on Dec 9, 2015 12:57:47 GMT -5
That is the aim. They need to keep the drop below 10% per day. At this point silence from management is key for this slaughter to continue.
Sickening. The destruction of such a promising drug. Just sickening.
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Post by fedakd on Dec 9, 2015 12:58:49 GMT -5
When one looks for a good long-term investment, it's always good to look at Porter's Five Forces.
Afrezza & Technsophere are exactly what you want in a long term investment.
What I underestimated was the power of wall street, of short hedge funds, or of BP's that want to kill this product. I underestimated the deals the BP's made with insurance companies to discount prandials so that Afrezza would be even less likely to sell.
If its any consolation, at the time I write this, Sanofi is 8 cents away from its 52-week low.
Tron, I am also very, very distraught. How can the shorts, being so wrong on ADCOM and approval in addition to the science, still come out ahead. No one is in our corner. I thought Sanofi was, Maybe Al thought Sanofi was. Maybe the old CEO was. I just don't know anymore.
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Post by jeremg on Dec 9, 2015 13:06:22 GMT -5
Yah, I'm still pretty shocked they are able to take it down close to -10% per day. Like 10% once a week in a planned bear raid is one thing, but this is just another entirely........
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Post by jpg on Dec 9, 2015 13:08:56 GMT -5
The very powerful insurance companies also need to be on the 'blame list'.
They want to eventually transition prandial insulin users to biosimilars. Afrezza is not in their best interest.
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Post by stevil on Dec 9, 2015 13:14:49 GMT -5
.jpg - This tanks 5-10% per day. If huge funds/institutions/etc believed in this company, they would be buying at these levels hand over fist. They are not. I don't believe Al Mann has an ace up his sleeve or any Plan B for next year. Thus I think the worst news is just around the corner in the coming months. I'm so upset that diabetics won't {?} be able to experience Afrezza after 2016. I'm long and beyond pissed off that as the PPS dwindles, the silence from MannKind and Sanofi is deafening. This part is extremely disheartening. I thought we had huge support at $2. It got tested a few times and bounced off of it several times. There doesn't appear to be any support in sight right now, which may be indicative of some really bad news. Tax selling shouldn't not be able to drive levels down this far. Those shares should be getting scooped up.
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Post by fedakd on Dec 9, 2015 13:15:28 GMT -5
I tried calling Matt. His voice mailbox is full. Sure wish I could listen to some of those messages while drinking a bottle of scotch. That would make for quite an evening!!!
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Post by trondisc on Dec 9, 2015 13:18:49 GMT -5
The very powerful insurance companies also need to be on the 'blame list'. They want to eventually transition prandial insulin users to biosimilars. Afrezza is not in their best interest. So is MannKind guaranteed to be screwed then or...?
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