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Post by jpg on Dec 9, 2015 13:25:44 GMT -5
The very powerful insurance companies also need to be on the 'blame list'. They want to eventually transition prandial insulin users to biosimilars. Afrezza is not in their best interest. So is MannKind guaranteed to be screwed then or...? Afrezza could be a megablock buster if handled right by an innovative BP. It would take a few studies and some smart marketing. None of this has even been started from what I know. As for Mannkind I have no idea. Everything is a secret. We don't even know if there is a CEO (look at Matts response to an email to understand the dynamics of Mannkind), if they have cash to last 3,6,9 or 12 months, if their partner is even motivated to do anything more than the minimum (recent Sanofi deals with other diabetic companies are worrisome). The only thing I'm fairly certain about is theTS partnership vacuum.
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Post by rrtzmd on Dec 9, 2015 13:47:37 GMT -5
So is MannKind guaranteed to be screwed then or...? Afrezza could be a megablock buster if handled right by an innovative BP. It would take a few studies and some smart marketing. None of this has even been started from what I know. As for Mannkind I have no idea. Everything is a secret. We don't even know if there is a CEO (look at Matts response to an email to understand the dynamics of Mannkind), if they have cash to last 3,6,9 or 12 months, if their partner is even motivated to do anything more than the minimum (recent Sanofi deals with other diabetic companies are worrisome). The only thing I'm fairly certain about is theTS partnership vacuum. "Afrezza could be a megablock buster..." Unlikely until someone does something about that "non--inferiority" label. Unlikely until it's clear that spirometry is no longer an issue. Unlikely until diabetics are reassured that their lungs aren't at risk. Unlikely until docs are convinced afrezza is worth the extra effort. There are a lot of hurdles to overcome. I'd have to be convinced that just an "innovative BP" and "smart marketing" could get over them.
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Post by trondisc on Dec 9, 2015 13:49:18 GMT -5
So is MannKind guaranteed to be screwed then or...? Afrezza could be a megablock buster if handled right by an innovative BP. It would take a few studies and some smart marketing. None of this has even been started from what I know. As for Mannkind I have no idea. Everything is a secret. We don't even know if there is a CEO (look at Matts response to an email to understand the dynamics of Mannkind), if they have cash to last 3,6,9 or 12 months, if their partner is even motivated to do anything more than the minimum (recent Sanofi deals with other diabetic companies are worrisome). The only thing I'm fairly certain about is theTS partnership vacuum. Odd theory which will never come to fruition but I thought I would throw it out there...is it possible MannKind might sell off entire company to Sanofi who will name their own Sanofi employee as the new CEO successor?
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Post by orlon on Dec 9, 2015 14:00:30 GMT -5
You have to be kidding. What response are you expecting the company to put out? Are they going to publish a paper on their strategic plan? Are they going to tell us which companies they are negotiating with for TS? Of course not. They are not going to say anything because they should not do so. You will know what is happening when there is a material development to announce. That may be months before it happens next. No disrespect intended James, but this is the same crap optimists have been posting for at least a year, 'wait and see,' 'in six months,', 'secret meetings in Vegas,' 'the company doesn't want the competition to know.' The new line...SNY is planning this...SNY won't terminate a he agreement because of...wait until 2016, then 2017. The reality is bad management, poor partnership, great product.
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Post by james on Dec 9, 2015 14:49:04 GMT -5
You have to be kidding. What response are you expecting the company to put out? Are they going to publish a paper on their strategic plan? Are they going to tell us which companies they are negotiating with for TS? Of course not. They are not going to say anything because they should not do so. You will know what is happening when there is a material development to announce. That may be months before it happens next. No disrespect intended James, but this is the same crap optimists have been posting for at least a year, 'wait and see,' 'in six months,', 'secret meetings in Vegas,' 'the company doesn't want the competition to know.' The new line...SNY is planning this...SNY won't terminate a he agreement because of...wait until 2016, then 2017. The reality is bad management, poor partnership, great product. I'm not feeling disrespected, but then it really doesn't matter what you think of me. I'm just trying to balance expectations here because there are so many folks going off the rails. I am trying to keep it real about how a public company operates and that is not going to change because any of us are confused, concerned, disappointed or whatever. I don't know if I am an optimist. I have certainly lost money I didn't want to lose on this and continue to evaluate whether I think this company has a chance to turn the corner. I don't think I've ever said anything about a secret meeting. There was apparently a meeting in San Diego of undisclosed purpose. They are not talking about this because that's not what companies do and it wouldn't change anything if they did. Suppose they talked about a superiority trial, the next thing everyone would want to know is whether they agreed to pursue this and when is it going to start. Suppose they did not talk about this or decided to defer? Then all of a sudden folks would be shouting that something is wrong. I have recently speculated a bit on the cash position, but only based on what appears likely and I've said that it is speculation. Sanofi will do what makes sense for Sanofi, not Mannkind. Of course, they are not going to tell anyone including Mannkind ahead of time if they are considering or plan to terminate. My evaluation is that there is still a good opportunity here for Sanofi and they will let it ride through 2016. Some have pointed out that the cost involved in starting the safety trial this year may be a pivotal decision point for Sanofi and that's probably true. Part of my thinking is that if they were deliberating termination, Sanofi would surely want to test the affect of reducing prices and increasing advertising before taking that step. There have certainly been a few management mistakes, a couple of them were whoppers. I think it's too early to make the same call on the state of the partnership.
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Post by mnholdem on Dec 9, 2015 15:22:48 GMT -5
You have to be kidding. What response are you expecting the company to put out? Are they going to publish a paper on their strategic plan? Are they going to tell us which companies they are negotiating with for TS? Of course not. They are not going to say anything because they should not do so. You will know what is happening when there is a material development to announce. That may be months before it happens next. No disrespect intended James, but this is the same crap optimists have been posting for at least a year, 'wait and see,' 'in six months,', 'secret meetings in Vegas,' 'the company doesn't want the competition to know.' The new line...SNY is planning this...SNY won't terminate a he agreement because of...wait until 2016, then 2017. The reality is bad management, poor partnership, great product.
Your "reality" is simply different from mine. My "reality" is that I simply don't have enough information (which sucks, I admit) to determine whether MannKind has bad management that are involved in a poor partnership with Sanofi.
Maybe you're right and I'm wrong, but I see only three facts:
- Virtually no information is being published by MannKind Corporation about the company;
- Virtually no information is being published by Sanofi about Afrezza;
- Afrezza is a great product.
Being an executive for multiple healthcare companies, I simply don't see that maintaining strict silence is any kind of indicator of poor management. I don't expect anyone to understand that but I've been at this for nearly 40 years, 25 years of which was aerospace, which is even more secretive than the pharmaceuticals industry, because sometimes a government contract that can be worth many $billions is at stake.
Frankly, with Afrezza, many $billions are at stake for MannKind Corporation.
That's my perception of reality.
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Post by silentknight on Dec 9, 2015 15:57:49 GMT -5
One thing is for sure, I sure don't envy the Board of Directors or company management currently. They are likely bound by NDAs, limiting their ability to speak to much of anything Afrezza related. However, as the stock hit an all-time low today, I believe that one could also make the argument that the same Board of Directors and company management are failing in their fiduciary duties to shareholders. Their duty to loyalty requires that they refrain from any activity that would injure the company or deprive stockholders of profit or advantage.
Here's where the dillema occurs. Are they protecting the company by doing nothing or harming it? Violating an NDA would obviously result in damages, but so has their refusal to do anything other than announce that Hakan was no longer CEO. It's the classic case of "Damned if you do. Damned if you don't." For everyone's sake, I sincerely hope that there is some movement soon.
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Post by silentknight on Dec 10, 2015 7:55:17 GMT -5
After some thought, I think we're now teetering on the brink of the latter from my previous post. It's actually good timing as we are approaching January 2016 and we're looking for a new CEO. Perhaps next month is the culmination of three things: (i) announcement of a new company head (ii) clarity on the way forward for Afrezza with SNY and (iii) clarity on MNKD's capital situation to ensure continuity past 2016.
I've intentionally discounted future TS endeavors because I don't believe that is a significant factor in the company's recent problems. Problems with Afrezza sales and the balance sheet are driving us down. Those problems need to be addressed first in my opinion. I'd love to hear of a new TS deal, but I'm skeptical of Hakan's "end of next quarter" comment, especially after he begged anyone for ideas during the last conference call. Maybe we'll all be pleasantly surprised with good news on that front but MNKD has more pressing matters to deal with.
Granted that the YMB is full of trolls and pumpers/bashers, but there was a recent topic referencing a retail shareholder lawsuit. Normally I'd cast aside any notion of the sort as there is risk associated with every investment nor do I advocate any shareholder action currently. Pouring salt into the wound of MNKD would accomplish nothing. However, in the face of such deafening silence, I think we are approaching a point where a decent argument could be made for the previously mentioned duty to loyalty obligation of the BOD and company management. NDA or not, MNKD looks like they've painted themselves into a corner in their ability to communicate any pertinent information. Appeasing SNY at the cost of shareholders isn't a good position to be in.
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