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Post by BlueCat on Mar 17, 2016 13:28:14 GMT -5
I don't trust this run up.... LOL ... but I will say it is because someone maybe knows something... other than that just more fun and games.. The caution side of my brain says: 1. Been here, done that. 2. No hit articles. That was the set up before when they'd let it drift up before whacking down again. That said - my vote has been 'complex combo'. My guess is that those bashers actually think they are setting a bull trap again. They are letting it run up to April 5 or so. In their plan, nothing monumental gets announced - or something does that they can FUD - and then they short it back down again. Problem is - we may have actually seen bottom (barring Black Swan) back in Jan after SNY ditch. Certainly looks like it in the chart. And there may be those that also have some inside info and are covering. All for Foil Hat - but that doesn't mean the manipulators are all in collusion together, and all equally in the know. I think there has always been a fair amount of chaos around this - just that a few have had a very heavy hand to prevail. Its our turn already ..... |
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Post by kbrion77 on Mar 17, 2016 13:46:41 GMT -5
I don't trust this run up.... LOL ... but I will say it is because someone maybe knows something... other than that just more fun and games.. The caution side of my brain says: 1. Been here, done that. 2. No hit articles. That was the set up before when they'd let it drift up before whacking down again. That said - my vote has been 'complex combo'. My guess is that those bashers actually think they are setting a bull trap again. They are letting it run up to April 5 or so. In their plan, nothing monumental gets announced - or something does that they can FUD - and then they short it back down again.Problem is - we may have actually seen bottom (barring Black Swan) back in Jan after SNY ditch. Certainly looks like it in the chart. And there may be those that also have some inside info and are covering. All for Foil Hat - but that doesn't mean the manipulators are all in collusion together, and all equally in the know. I think there has always been a fair amount of chaos around this - just that a few have had a very heavy hand to prevail. Its our turn already ..... Then they are trading as if the company will inevitably go bankrupt which takes massive rocks or just plain stupidity. I've been wrong so many times about this stock that I try not to speculate anymore and just take news as it comes in. But for the life of me I just cannot grasp the concept of shorts not getting out at the .70 level and basking in their glory. |
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Post by lorcan458 on Mar 17, 2016 13:47:24 GMT -5
I think if there were a single new leak, such as a foreign distributor or something, it would have been a quick spike up and then flatten awaiting another catalyst. Given that this is a slow, steady rise, I have a feeling that whatever forces were holding it down have moved on to squeeze another company.
Mannkind's market cap now exceeds my other high risk/high reward pick, Sun Edison. SUNE has over 20 billion in assets and I think somewhere under 5B in debt. It's a strange market, but SUNE experiences the same flood of negative articles and taunting shorts on YMB.
The outside possibility is that someone leaked something about Al Mann's foundation forgiving the debt or providing some other type of financial backing. Of course, the market thought that MNKD was worth over $10 before we had real world proof of how well Afrezza works.
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Post by BlueCat on Mar 17, 2016 13:51:47 GMT -5
Then they are trading as if the company will inevitably go bankrupt which takes massive rocks or just plain stupidity. I've been wrong so many times about this stock that I try not to speculate anymore and just take news as it comes in. But for the life of me I just cannot grasp the concept of shorts not getting out at the .70 level and basking in their glory. For sure. Which adds to the Foil Hat theory that the intent was combined with need to kill company, like HFs support patent-based lawsuits that both drop stock price while making it difficult for small biotech to succeed through the harrassment. "What a loooonnngg strange trip its been ......" |
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Post by kc on Mar 17, 2016 13:56:03 GMT -5
The risk/reward profile has changed. Point man on the attack force is without sound intel. One could hear the stress in Olson's pleading voice (I'll paraphrase), "Dammit, tell me where you're getting the financing!!" Having no success with that question, he probes the other end of the balance sheet, "So, remind me, when is the loan due to SNY and for how much?" Knowledge is king and the discomfort of him being without it was very apparent, IMO. I don't discount for a second there has been some leakage that points to a future overseas, or other, partnership. But, I think the bigger picture is the realization that the attempt to snuff this little company has failed. "Alternative" forms of unseen support have arrived. VDEX not only represents a "free" channel for Afrezza but the very best way for the story to be told. They can say what MNKD can not and proof will be provided via the hundreds of CGM's that will accompany new Rx's. Add the mystery that is RLS and the potential tailwind of $'s they could represent. The survival line continues with new COO and legal hire dots that all connect to, "We've lost this one." Rational next step = cover as orderly as possible And VDEX is really a wild card. No doubt in part because of this board, they know some diehard longs are involved. What happens if the first VDEX centers come out and do a PR says they are experiencing resounding success? Large interest, scripts and immediate plans for expansion would be I think terrifying to them because unlike BP, insurance, chains and looking at Symphony numbers - how would they control it? Or spin it? No guarantee this will happen. I do hope it happens for all involved. But between VDEX and RLS (and the cloak of secrecy) one would think they'd have to feel at least a little uncertain .... I am all for VDEX but its not the wild card driving this rally. That wild card is knowing that on April 4th or later that something big is on the horizon. VDEX will take a while to ramp up one center at a time. Its a great concept but again it takes time. The unknown is who is going to be involved with MannKind going forward. Wall Street knows that Afrezza will eventually be a blockbuster for some big pharma player. Who? Will it be MannKind independently? I doubt it. Cuba Gooding said "SHOW ME THE MONEY" MannKind needs the money to survive, The Mann Trust's need the money so the company will eventually be sold. Immediately? Nobody knows. That is what is driving the PPS up. |
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Post by BlueCat on Mar 17, 2016 13:59:20 GMT -5
I am all for VDEX but its not the wild card driving this rally. That wild card is knowing that on April 4th or later that something big is on the horizon. VDEX will take a while to ramp up one center at a time. Its a great concept but again it takes time. The unknown is who is going to be involved with MannKind going forward. Wall Street knows that Afrezza will eventually be a blockbuster for some big pharma player. Who? Will it be MannKind independently? I doubt it. Cuba Gooding said "SHOW ME THE MONEY" MannKind needs the money to survive, The Mann Trust's need the money so the company will eventually be sold. Immediately? Nobody knows. That is what is driving the PPS up. Agreed - VDEX is not the wild card driving this rally. But it is a wild card and certainly must present some amount of uncertainty - not on sheer revenue numbers, but on perception. If nothing else, an early indicator may affect stock sentiment. And a collection of wild cards .... uncertainty grows. Especially when they are already at bottom in the price. If the BK thesis becomes too weak and the price is still in the $1 range- the math, the strategy to keep holding and doubling down short - just makes less and less sense. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 17, 2016 14:04:09 GMT -5
This is beginning to seem a bit squeezey.
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Post by kbrion77 on Mar 17, 2016 14:20:40 GMT -5
Just doing a bit of investigating and the last and only time MNKD finished the trading day above 20% and above 10M in volume was 1/20/2011, the day after the CRL. Now I'm sure I just put a jinx on the day but I thought that was interesting, clearly something going on here but most likely short covering.
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Post by kbrion77 on Mar 17, 2016 15:24:48 GMT -5
Only 3 other times in MNKD's trading history has it closed above 17% and above 10M in volume:
Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close %
1/26/2016 0.77 0.98 0.76 0.92 11,221,300 0.92 19.5%
1/9/2014 6.05 7.21 6.02 7.08 24,870,600 7.08 17.0%
1/20/2011 5.07 6.23 5 6.17 34,469,000 6.17 21.7%
1/20/2011: MNKD received CRL on 1/19
1/9/2014: 1/10 MNKD received tentative date of FDA review of Afrezza
1/26/2016: 1/21 MNKD entered into licensing agreement with Receptor
With all that being said I think today was just pure short covering.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 17, 2016 15:35:18 GMT -5
Predictions for tomorrow?
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Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2016 15:42:18 GMT -5
Predictions for tomorrow? ping me tomm @ 4 pm EST |
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Post by peppy on Mar 17, 2016 15:58:31 GMT -5
Predictions for tomorrow? The breakout. Volume comes in heavy. (Heavier) 2 times normal volume today. Target, $2.24.
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Post by elv344800 on Mar 17, 2016 16:02:54 GMT -5
Wow, that pic of the John Deere takes me back to my days as a farm boy in Wis. Best memories of my life working on that beast!, 10-12 hrs a day in the fields...TY.
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Post by sportsrancho on Mar 17, 2016 16:14:27 GMT -5
My idea was that the shorts are worried of a SNY settlement. With all the bad news in and so many potential things in the works why not get out now. If we get a good amount we could have two years to turn this ship around. That spells blockbuster!
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Post by bioexec25 on Mar 17, 2016 16:16:09 GMT -5
Predictions for tomorrow? The breakout. Volume comes in heavy. (Heavier) 2 times normal volume today. Target, $2.24.
Conventional thought is consolidation of even back a bit. But consider 24 days to cover puts that nearly a week beyond Apr 5th. I don't think shorts want to be there in force during the handover. But God help us afterwards if no news or progress is shown. |
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