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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Mar 27, 2016 10:44:09 GMT -5
Yes, indeed. I tried to make this transparent by inserting a quote. I wondered what it could be that might damage MNKD when it becomes public. Again on MNKD not disclosing about RLS. If RLS would like to disclose something they would not do this via MNKD. And MNKD could not stop RLS from doing so. These are 2 different companies that just have business together. MNKD has business to a lot of companies and many are private companies. Not sure why you are trying to distort my simple comment. I never said that mnkd was doing something bad that they want to keep hidden. I merely said that there could be a legitimate business reason to keep details private and the company could be harmed if these details were revealed early. This is hardly FUD. My appologies if my question has been perceived by you or others as distorting your comment. You disagreed with my categorization of your comment as FUD. Okay. You might wonder why I called this so: The cooperation with RLS, the first TS collaboration, was regarded as postive by the investor community. There were two issues: One is the lack of upfront payments and second the private nature of RLS that doesnt allow to estimate its value for MNKD. If a comment takes this second issue (and this is how I perceived your comment) not only as a lack of information to estimate a positive value but as something that might result in a negative evaluation of MNKD (Quote: "So if we actually manage to uncover something we will potentially be damaging mnkd."). Taking an element of unknown in an overall positive event and speculate on a negative outcome of the whole event by this unknown element is a standard method of FUD. This can be powerful even if there is nothing that substantiate this claim. This is why I asked you to but some flesh to your concern. I understand now that you were just raising a hypothetical concern. |
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Post by sluggobear on Mar 30, 2016 16:01:28 GMT -5
I was hoping to read what others on this board had proffered as "reasonable" conjecture for Mannkind's next moves after getting back Afrezza rights. I have my own ideas about RLS and don't intend to reiterate now. Back to the subject title of the thread: So what can they do, and what should they do, on April 5th?
If there isn't any solid, significant source of revenue in "line of sight" as Matt says, e.g. $200m, then I think a Hail Mary is necessary. Announce free Afrezza insulin for seniors on Medicaid. Set the price of Afrezza to be newsworthy. I have been banging this drum so someone tell me why this approach is foolhardy...
I wrote an email welcoming Dr. Castagna in his new position as Mannkind's CCO, wishing him luck, and voicing these suggestions about pricing Afrezza:
"I would be very excited to see Mannkind announce that they are:
- pricing Afrezza to make it cheaper than ALL other prandial insulins.
- making Afrezza available for ALL diabetics to try for 6 mos - 1 yr through deep discounts (basically the cost of a copay).
- creating a special Medicaid program for seniors who require insulin but cannot afford it."
I asked, "Are you really going to try to fight PBM's and insurance companies to get Rx numbers going? I assume they will always counter with the same reasoning for denial of coverage. By selling Afrezza at an undercutting price, PBM's and insurance cos. would not be involved initially. Also the other holdups of PA / ST would be removed. If patients never hear about (and try) Afrezza, they won't know what they are missing. I believe you can get millions to try it (and fall in love with it). After 6 months, assuming better QOL and lower A1c's, patients will demand it from their docs."
I realize this is probably way too simplistic. But trying to restart Afrezza, again as a niche product, means the company might not survive (I'm being generous). I also said that I think the "lowest price in the US for insulin" story would mean free advertising - a David v. Goliath story in the New York Times, the anti-Martin Shkreli approach. This might lead to national recognition (e.g. speeches from Hillary and Bernie) of Mannkind / Al Mann's contributions to Diabetes...and of course, national awareness of Afrezza.
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Post by sportsrancho on Mar 30, 2016 16:33:21 GMT -5
God bless you slug!!!
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Post by bradleysbest on Mar 30, 2016 16:37:47 GMT -5
Sluggo great idea but maybe not to that extreme. Thinking outside the box is great & I hope Matt is thinking similarly to you!
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Mar 30, 2016 17:33:39 GMT -5
Sluggo great idea but maybe not to that extreme. Thinking outside the box is great & I hope Matt is thinking similarly to you! And when the stock price has gone up to $25 due to awareness and sales MNKD can do another public offering and get the cash needed:-) |
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Post by sluggobear on Mar 30, 2016 21:33:53 GMT -5
Sluggo great idea but maybe not to that extreme. Thinking outside the box is great & I hope Matt is thinking similarly to you! And when the stock price has gone up to $25 due to awareness and sales MNKD can do another public offering and get the cash needed:-) EXACTLY IB! I have to believe they are thinking in terms of a survival strategy. Yes another offering (at $10-25 SP b/c of exponential growth of Rx number) would give them runway for a couple more years to get the pieces together that are missing. |
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Post by jerrys on Mar 30, 2016 22:40:27 GMT -5
I was hoping to read what others on this board had proffered as "reasonable" conjecture for Mannkind's next moves after getting back Afrezza rights. I have my own ideas about RLS and don't intend to reiterate now. Back to the subject title of the thread: So what can they do, and what should they do, on April 5th? If there isn't any solid, significant source of revenue in "line of sight" as Matt says, e.g. $200m, then I think a Hail Mary is necessary. Announce free Afrezza insulin for seniors on Medicaid. Set the price of Afrezza to be newsworthy. I have been banging this drum so someone tell me why this approach is foolhardy... I wrote an email welcoming Dr. Castagna in his new position as Mannkind's CCO, wishing him luck, and voicing these suggestions about pricing Afrezza: "I would be very excited to see Mannkind announce that they are: - pricing Afrezza to make it cheaper than ALL other prandial insulins. - making Afrezza available for ALL diabetics to try for 6 mos - 1 yr through deep discounts (basically the cost of a copay). - creating a special Medicaid program for seniors who require insulin but cannot afford it." I asked, "Are you really going to try to fight PBM's and insurance companies to get Rx numbers going? I assume they will always counter with the same reasoning for denial of coverage. By selling Afrezza at an undercutting price, PBM's and insurance cos. would not be involved initially. Also the other holdups of PA / ST would be removed. If patients never hear about (and try) Afrezza, they won't know what they are missing. I believe you can get millions to try it (and fall in love with it). After 6 months, assuming better QOL and lower A1c's, patients will demand it from their docs." I realize this is probably way too simplistic. But trying to restart Afrezza, again as a niche product, means the company might not survive (I'm being generous). I also said that I think the "lowest price in the US for insulin" story would mean free advertising - a David v. Goliath story in the New York Times, the anti-Martin Shkreli approach. This might lead to national recognition (e.g. speeches from Hillary and Bernie) of Mannkind / Al Mann's contributions to Diabetes...and of course, national awareness of Afrezza. Current pricing of the competition:
"Apidra vial 10ml = $177.59
Humalog vial 10ml = $217.45
Novolog vial 10ml = $210.49
Average cost per month: $201.84
Average cost per year: $2,422.08"
It appears from the comments of users that afrezza may require significantly larger and/or more frequent dosing -- roughly 3-4 times as much as their old lispro dose. So just to stay even with the lispro prices Mannkind could charge only around 60-70 dollars. That would mean only around 700-800 bucks in revenues per year. Could Mannkind generate significant profit from that?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2016 23:01:54 GMT -5
Current pricing of the competition:
"Apidra vial 10ml = $177.59
Humalog vial 10ml = $217.45
Novolog vial 10ml = $210.49
Average cost per month: $201.84
Average cost per year: $2,422.08"
It appears from the comments of users that afrezza may require significantly larger and/or more frequent dosing -- roughly 3-4 times as much as their old lispro dose. So just to stay even with the lispro prices Mannkind could charge only around 60-70 dollars. That would mean only around 700-800 bucks in revenues per year. Could Mannkind generate significant profit from that?
Yes |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2016 23:02:21 GMT -5
Current pricing of the competition:
"Apidra vial 10ml = $177.59
Humalog vial 10ml = $217.45
Novolog vial 10ml = $210.49
Average cost per month: $201.84
Average cost per year: $2,422.08"
It appears from the comments of users that afrezza may require significantly larger and/or more frequent dosing -- roughly 3-4 times as much as their old lispro dose. So just to stay even with the lispro prices Mannkind could charge only around 60-70 dollars. That would mean only around 700-800 bucks in revenues per year. Could Mannkind generate significant profit from that?
No |
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Mar 31, 2016 1:56:23 GMT -5
Current pricing of the competition:
"Apidra vial 10ml = $177.59
Humalog vial 10ml = $217.45
Novolog vial 10ml = $210.49
Average cost per month: $201.84
Average cost per year: $2,422.08"
It appears from the comments of users that afrezza may require significantly larger and/or more frequent dosing -- roughly 3-4 times as much as their old lispro dose. So just to stay even with the lispro prices Mannkind could charge only around 60-70 dollars. That would mean only around 700-800 bucks in revenues per year. Could Mannkind generate significant profit from that?
. We know that the plant at Danbury are underutilized to a large degree. So they have to ramp up volume. Price are therefore var. costs. Have they reported a plant capacity, by the way? Main feedstock is insulin and feedstock for FDKP. Do we know the ratio of FDKP to insulin? Is this generic insulin? If so, anyone familiar with the price? I guess the guys who answered Yes and No did the calcs. Would you mind to share it? I was hoping to read what others on this board had proffered as "reasonable" conjecture for Mannkind's next moves after getting back Afrezza rights. I have my own ideas about RLS and don't intend to reiterate now. Back to the subject title of the thread: So what can they do, and what should they do, on April 5th? If there isn't any solid, significant source of revenue in "line of sight" as Matt says, e.g. $200m, then I think a Hail Mary is necessary. Announce free Afrezza insulin for seniors on Medicaid. Set the price of Afrezza to be newsworthy. I have been banging this drum so someone tell me why this approach is foolhardy... I wrote an email welcoming Dr. Castagna in his new position as Mannkind's CCO, wishing him luck, and voicing these suggestions about pricing Afrezza: "I would be very excited to see Mannkind announce that they are: - pricing Afrezza to make it cheaper than ALL other prandial insulins. - making Afrezza available for ALL diabetics to try for 6 mos - 1 yr through deep discounts (basically the cost of a copay). - creating a special Medicaid program for seniors who require insulin but cannot afford it." I asked, "Are you really going to try to fight PBM's and insurance companies to get Rx numbers going? I assume they will always counter with the same reasoning for denial of coverage. By selling Afrezza at an undercutting price, PBM's and insurance cos. would not be involved initially. Also the other holdups of PA / ST would be removed. If patients never hear about (and try) Afrezza, they won't know what they are missing. I believe you can get millions to try it (and fall in love with it). After 6 months, assuming better QOL and lower A1c's, patients will demand it from their docs." I realize this is probably way too simplistic. But trying to restart Afrezza, again as a niche product, means the company might not survive (I'm being generous). I also said that I think the "lowest price in the US for insulin" story would mean free advertising - a David v. Goliath story in the New York Times, the anti-Martin Shkreli approach. This might lead to national recognition (e.g. speeches from Hillary and Bernie) of Mannkind / Al Mann's contributions to Diabetes...and of course, national awareness of Afrezza. Current pricing of the competition:
"Apidra vial 10ml = $177.59
Humalog vial 10ml = $217.45
Novolog vial 10ml = $210.49
Average cost per month: $201.84
Average cost per year: $2,422.08"
It appears from the comments of users that afrezza may require significantly larger and/or more frequent dosing -- roughly 3-4 times as much as their old lispro dose. So just to stay even with the lispro prices Mannkind could charge only around 60-70 dollars. That would mean only around 700-800 bucks in revenues per year. Could Mannkind generate significant profit from that?
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Post by tayl5 on Mar 31, 2016 8:56:39 GMT -5
It's certainly possible for MannKind to sell Afrezza initially at a non-profitable price to stimulate sales and attract attention. They probably have plenty of raw materials and manufactured product that have already been expensed so the immediate cost would not be high. The trick is to be able to raise the price once the product is established. The discount coupons that Sanofi used are a way of having an initial discount while avoiding the need to go back to payors with price bumps later on. The price increase is the same but it avoids difficult negotiations.
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Post by miracle331 on Mar 31, 2016 17:36:12 GMT -5
And when the stock price has gone up to $25 due to awareness and sales MNKD can do another public offering and get the cash needed:-) EXACTLY IB! I have to believe they are thinking in terms of a survival strategy. Yes another offering (at $10-25 SP b/c of exponential growth of Rx number) would give them runway for a couple more years to get the pieces together that are missing. I'm sure at that price a lot of people would sell out already. Me included. |
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Mar 31, 2016 17:46:40 GMT -5
It's certainly possible for MannKind to sell Afrezza initially at a non-profitable price to stimulate sales and attract attention. They probably have plenty of raw materials and manufactured product that have already been expensed so the immediate cost would not be high. The trick is to be able to raise the price once the product is established. The discount coupons that Sanofi used are a way of having an initial discount while avoiding the need to go back to payors with price bumps later on. The price increase is the same but it avoids difficult negotiations. Matt stated last CC that SNY had some good ideas (till someone at HQ decided to cancel everything) and that they are going to steal some. The coupons could be one of them. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2016 16:51:28 GMT -5
MNKD Afrezza call center will start taking calls from April 5th on 877 - 323 -8505.
if Matt is not on the other side taking calls, its splashy enough.
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Post by bradleysbest on Apr 1, 2016 18:37:17 GMT -5
I'll answer the phones too....
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