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Post by peppy on Jan 5, 2017 12:27:39 GMT -5
I have put together the reasons why I think AMGEN will buy MNKD in the first half of 2017 Nov 2015 1. in Nov 2015 AMGEN says they want to acquire a Biotech company for about 10 Billion ...they have NOT acquired anything until now. www.sfvbj.com/news/2015/nov/09/report-amgen-looking-10-billion-acquisition/2. Sanofi Mysteriously ends collaboration agreement in Dec 2015 ....they claim slow sales but they ran the sales campaign with little effort 3. Mike Castanga moves over to MNKD in March 2016 ...his Linkdin still listed a small position at AMGEN (gone now) 4. MNKD has recently listed almost 100 job vacancies for sales and management ...(not something a company facing BK would do) 5. Very Quiet Period for the last 6 months ..... 6. Very little insider buying in the last 4 to 5 months 7. Sr VP of HR moves over to MNKD in Jan 2017, This is the 2nd executive position moving from AMGEN to MNKD.....if a 3rd occurs this is a sure thing. 8. In the Past Matt P. has said that the RLS deal is a very complicated deal ....its taken too long IMHO and could be related to the talks with AMGEN. Perhaps some sort of licensing deal is in the works between the 3 company. 9. Matt P referenced the infamous "Embarrassment of Riches" comment at the end of 2015 ..... maybe he saw the future after the acquisition. I was a Military Communications Analyst in the USAF for twenty years and learned how to combine small bits of information into the overall big picture. Afrezza is a game changer for Diabetics and will absolutely succeed in 2017 ....what big Pharma would not want to own a novel drug for Diabetes. LONG and STRONG MNKD ...Good Luck to ALL LONGS ......Hope all shorts choke on a Pretzel. See you guys on ST Quote: 9. Matt P referenced the infamous "Embarrassment of Riches" comment at the end of 2015 reply: sanofi had ordered their sample packs.
I can not figure out what amgen needs technosphere for. Have you figured out how technosphere figures into Amgen's Business plan?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2017 12:34:47 GMT -5
I have put together the reasons why I think AMGEN will buy MNKD in the first half of 2017 Nov 2015 1. in Nov 2015 AMGEN says they want to acquire a Biotech company for about 10 Billion ...they have NOT acquired anything until now. www.sfvbj.com/news/2015/nov/09/report-amgen-looking-10-billion-acquisition/2. Sanofi Mysteriously ends collaboration agreement in Dec 2015 ....they claim slow sales but they ran the sales campaign with little effort 3. Mike Castanga moves over to MNKD in March 2016 ...his Linkdin still listed a small position at AMGEN (gone now) 4. MNKD has recently listed almost 100 job vacancies for sales and management ...(not something a company facing BK would do) 5. Very Quiet Period for the last 6 months ..... 6. Very little insider buying in the last 4 to 5 months 7. Sr VP of HR moves over to MNKD in Jan 2017, This is the 2nd executive position moving from AMGEN to MNKD.....if a 3rd occurs this is a sure thing. 8. In the Past Matt P. has said that the RLS deal is a very complicated deal ....its taken too long IMHO and could be related to the talks with AMGEN. Perhaps some sort of licensing deal is in the works between the 3 company. 9. Matt P referenced the infamous "Embarrassment of Riches" comment at the end of 2015 ..... maybe he saw the future after the acquisition. I was a Military Communications Analyst in the USAF for twenty years and learned how to combine small bits of information into the overall big picture. Afrezza is a game changer for Diabetics and will absolutely succeed in 2017 ....what big Pharma would not want to own a novel drug for Diabetes. LONG and STRONG MNKD ...Good Luck to ALL LONGS ......Hope all shorts choke on a Pretzel. See you guys on ST Quote: 9. Matt P referenced the infamous "Embarrassment of Riches" comment at the end of 2015 reply: sanofi had ordered their sample packs.
I can not figure out what amgen needs technosphere for. Have you figured out how technosphere figures into Amgen's Business plan?
lol @ Kuka and boasting his credentials.. all you need is common sense .. He saw the 9 things but didnt see MNKD struggling to raise $ by listing in TASE and then diluting away in May 2016.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 5, 2017 12:38:56 GMT -5
I too have been invested here for over 3 years and have turned grey over the ups and downs. However, I don't believe any of us should pooh pooh anyone's theory. MNKD is unpredictable. Not many have forecast correctly! No need to get nasty or cynical here. (although some of you are really funny, ALBA!) Let's just share ideas and not become the Yahoo message board! Sadly it's been the people attacking MNKD that have been the right ones so far. There were some on this board that have predicted, or at least accepted possibility of, some of the negative outcomes we've experienced including dilution, drop in share price and discontinuation of SNY marketing deal. These people have been attacked with pitch forks. So we may have a skewed view of the proportion of people falling MNKD were generally correct vs incorrect. Given that there were a lot of totally unsubstantiated dreams of acquisition in the past at share prices that would have resulted in great monetary loss to anyone buying in based on the dreaming... I fully support anyone wanting to "pooh pooh" (i.e. question) these buyout predictions. Let's not become YMB and launch personal attacks or make up facts. If some are getting euphoric, it is reasonable for others to be cynical about it. The first post on this thread used real facts, so I'm perfectly accepting that it is here... but the wild leaps of conclusion about those facts is something I believe should be questioned in a civil manner, even if any questioning of dreams might be characterized as cynical. Those grounded in reality often do have to cast a cynical eye.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2017 12:50:06 GMT -5
I too have been invested here for over 3 years and have turned grey over the ups and downs. However, I don't believe any of us should pooh pooh anyone's theory. MNKD is unpredictable. Not many have forecast correctly! No need to get nasty or cynical here. (although some of you are really funny, ALBA!) Let's just share ideas and not become the Yahoo message board! Sadly it's been the people attacking MNKD that have been the right ones so far. There were some on this board that have predicted, or at least accepted possibility of, some of the negative outcomes we've experienced including dilution, drop in share price and discontinuation of SNY marketing deal. These people have been attacked with pitch forks. So we may have a skewed view of the proportion of people falling MNKD were generally correct vs incorrect. Given that there were a lot of totally unsubstantiated dreams of acquisition in the past at share prices that would have resulted in great monetary loss to anyone buying in based on the dreaming... I fully support anyone wanting to "pooh pooh" (i.e. question) these buyout predictions. Let's not become YMB and launch personal attacks or make up facts. If some are getting euphoric, it is reasonable for others to be cynical about it. The first post on this thread used real facts, so I'm perfectly accepting that it is hear... but the wild leaps of conclusion about those facts is something I believe should be questioned in a civil manner, even if any questioning of dreams might be characterized as cynical. Those grounded in reality often do have to cast a cynical eye. Dream this does not sound like the response of a TRUE REAL LONG
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 5, 2017 13:01:57 GMT -5
Dream this does not sound like the response of a TRUE REAL LONG Well, to be honest, the share of my retirement represented by MNKD now is much smaller than it used to be. Perhaps I sold some without knowing it [Pulling out tiny lizard sized pom poms] GOOOOO LONGS! Hopefully I don't have to do a split to convince people I actually own a substantial number of MNKD shares.
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Post by comnkd on Jan 5, 2017 13:28:57 GMT -5
Dream this does not sound like the response of a TRUE REAL LONG Well, to be honest, the share of my retirement represented by MNKD now is much smaller than it used to be. Perhaps I sold some without knowing it [Pulling out tiny lizard sized pom poms] GOOOOO LONGS! Hopefully I don't have to do a split to convince people I actually own a substantial number of MNKD shares. No reverse splits, please.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 5, 2017 14:39:02 GMT -5
Executives moving from amgen to mnkd show that amgen won't be acquiring mnkd. If mnkd got bought out by amgen (or any other big pharma for that matter), all executive positions of mnkd would be eliminated and their responsibilities folded into the acquiror's operations. Trent and Mike would be immediately out of a job. I would suspect your view is more probably than that of those saying these hires indicate an acquisition. I don't ever recall an acquirer having parachuted management in prior to closing a deal. For one, it would put the acquisition target in potentially a risky position with people still loyal to their old company that could take actions affecting the valuation of the company prior to closing or be an uncontrolled conduit of information. As an entrepreneur I've had one company acquired. I would not hire a senior exec from a company with which I was in active M&A negotiations.
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Post by kingcab7 on Jan 5, 2017 15:19:12 GMT -5
Amgen is not acquiring Mannkind--Amgen has no diabetes division, no sales force or expertise. They would have to create this from nothing, just like Mannkind has had to do for themselves.
Castagana has been recruiting for Mannkind from people he knew at Amgen (I know this from someone he has talked to), so no surprise that a person or two might follow him there.
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Post by mikesmilitaria on Jan 5, 2017 16:20:49 GMT -5
KUKA----I think your pieces make a nice fit. Something big has been brewing for a very long time and I think revelations are coming, hopefully this qtr. MNKD has strategically stalled Afrezza waiting for milestone events to materialize. $10B seems like a reasonable price at this point in time....a win/win for MNKD and along awaited win for "bag holders" like me.....hanging on for 12+ years.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 5, 2017 16:46:36 GMT -5
KUKA----I think your pieces make a nice fit. Something big has been brewing for a very long time and I think revelations are coming, hopefully this qtr. MNKD has strategically stalled Afrezza waiting for milestone events to materialize. $10B seems like a reasonable price at this point in time....a win/win for MNKD and along awaited win for "bag holders" like me.....hanging on for 12+ years. My retirement has taken a tactical hit... though obviously the classic "delay market success" strategy taught in so many B schools is one that can't be laughed at.
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Post by mikesmilitaria on Jan 5, 2017 17:04:30 GMT -5
Mine too but I have NO fear that payday is coming. MNKD's approach to marketing Afrezza has been practically speaking, non-existent. MNKD is keeping Afrezza on life support until their master plan elements all come together and I believe we are very, very close to that reality. I sure the hell hope it's this qtr.
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Post by careful2invest on Jan 5, 2017 17:23:38 GMT -5
Mine too but I have NO fear that payday is coming. MNKD's approach to marketing Afrezza has been practically speaking, non-existent. MNKD is keeping Afrezza on life support until their master plan elements all come together and I believe we are very, very close to that reality. I sure the hell hope it's this qtr. If a deal were to happen at $10 billion, Is there any way of calculating what a price of $10 billion would do to the pps? Educated estimates anyone?
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Post by onemann on Jan 5, 2017 17:44:09 GMT -5
Careful, I wouldn't get your hopes up however, if you need a break from the misery and just want to smile a bit then you could divide the acquisition price by the number of shares outstanding. Someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. So 10 billion divided by call it 479 million comes out to be $20.87. I wouldn't hold my breathe though.
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Post by madog365 on Jan 5, 2017 17:45:01 GMT -5
Mine too but I have NO fear that payday is coming. MNKD's approach to marketing Afrezza has been practically speaking, non-existent. MNKD is keeping Afrezza on life support until their master plan elements all come together and I believe we are very, very close to that reality. I sure the hell hope it's this qtr. If a deal were to happen at $10 billion, Is there any way of calculating what a price of $10 billion would do to the pps? Educated estimates anyone? ~$30 PPS.
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Post by kc on Jan 5, 2017 17:46:22 GMT -5
10 billion would be about $20.00 per share. That would be too much today. We all would like that but more realistically is about $10.00 per share. I would be comfortable with a good buyer holding their shares. Afrezza will be a winner long term.
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