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Post by gamblerjag on Jan 5, 2017 22:57:44 GMT -5
yes $20 pps... 10 billion / 500 million o/s.. of course the supposedly Short interest could bring it higher but that would be specualation.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 6, 2017 2:26:02 GMT -5
I am not an acquisition expert by any means...it just all makes sense. Look at all the puzzle pieces and do some analysis. Something BIG is going on with all the new Hiring ...the VA Contract just makes buying MNKD that much more appealing. Its my theory ....I cant prove anything yet .....lets hear another explanation for the recent events... That's very similar to what my gardener said when giving advice about my cardio problem. Another explanation... the one management has given. They are slowly building out their team to make Afrezza a success after SNY pulled from marketing Afrezza. I'm suspecting there is a BIG pump and dump effort going on. You may be unwittingly contributing to it... giving you the benefit of the doubt.
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Post by snowballsmommy on Jan 6, 2017 8:55:20 GMT -5
I am not an acquisition expert by any means...it just all makes sense. Look at all the puzzle pieces and do some analysis. Something BIG is going on with all the new Hiring ...the VA Contract just makes buying MNKD that much more appealing. Its my theory ....I cant prove anything yet .....lets hear another explanation for the recent events... Okay, I'll take you up on that.
Sanofi ended the agreement because they were not able to market and sell Afrezza. They targeted patients with early Type 2 diabetes who were insulin naïve and it turned out to be a tragic decision because Sanofi decided to give Afrezza a premium price tag and then pitted it against the drug used in the first step in the Diabetes Standard of Care: ultra low-cost Metformin. By the time their mistake became apparent, they had a new CEO who decided to pull the plug (after all, he'd been there once before with inhaled insulin and lost $2 billion trying to make it work).
Mannkind's actions since then, particularly in Matt Pfeffer's hiring choices, are all because MannKind made the decision to commercialize Afrezza themselves. Whether they no longer trusted BP companies was irrelevant. What was FACT at the time is that they had virtually no experienced leaders to successfully market and sell Afrezza on their own. All of the new hires, starting with Mike Castagna and the two VPs that report to him, are all about building up MannKind's ability to successfully commercialize Afrezza and, if possible, a few other API-TS. Dr. Raymond Urbanski was hired to take over the required post-market clinical trials agenda, work with the FDA on Afrezza development, such as labeling changes based on recent studies, and to develop epinephrine-TS and a handful of other pipeline API candidates that may attract partners and/or generate revenue if marketed by MannKind.
The idea that simply because the company is silent (they weren't silent at the 3Q16 earnings call) that it MUST mean that something big has to be in the works has less merit than the idea that the company has been silent because there is little new information for them to disclose in addition to what they have already told us. I tend to lean toward the latter.
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About the only thing I am fairly confident of is that the MannKind team are working their asses off to make this company a success and to bring Alfred Mann's dream of a life-changing insulin into fruition. As a shareholder, I'm encouraged that Matt Pfeffer has put together a team with the real-world experience necessary to succeed.
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The idea of an Amgen buyout makes no sense to me. A company with no sales force? The only way that would make sense is that they want the intellectual property we call Technosphere in order to develop (actually, to deliver) other drugs. Technosphere is worth much more than just Afrezza, certainly more than the $10 billion they've earmarked for acquisitions. Such an action might bring an end to Al Mann's dream. Do you think Pfeffer, the BoD and the shareholders would let that happen?
I don't. That's my two cents on the subject of an Amgen buyout.
You are always the voice of reason, and for this explanation, I thank you Mnholdem! (but I still cannot connect the dots on why these high level people would come to Mannkind if there wasn't something we don't know)
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Post by mnkdfann on Jan 6, 2017 12:08:47 GMT -5
I really do like and agree with most of mnholdem's post, I just find the bit about "Technosphere is worth much more than ... $10 billion" a little hard to swallow.
But I hope he's correct.
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Post by sophie on Jan 6, 2017 12:20:38 GMT -5
I think it should be worth much more than 10 billion also. It's why I invested in this stock. However, it's only worth what someone will pay for it and I'd expect many more partnerships if the pharmaceutical company saw that kind of value in it.
Long term, if Mannkind can survive, this could easily be a 60-80 billion dollar company someday. The possibilities are endless. Just depends on if someone wants to sink in the costs to develop drugs for this novel delivery system.
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 6, 2017 12:24:16 GMT -5
In my current role I am involved in the acquisition of quite a few small to medium sized companies. What is euphemistically called synergies usually involves the savings from disposing of the top level of management and any overlapping departments. If you are going to acquire a company the last thing you would do is put personnel into the target as that is almost inviting a shareholders suit by shareholders in the target as well as an insider trading investigation if you are a publicly traded company. Legally it's a high wire act and I have never actually seen it done. If the acquirer is of any consequence their compliance or internal audit team will stamp on this.
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Post by kc on Jan 6, 2017 12:31:40 GMT -5
Okay, I'll take you up on that.
Sanofi ended the agreement because they were not able to market and sell Afrezza. They targeted patients with early Type 2 diabetes who were insulin naïve and it turned out to be a tragic decision because Sanofi decided to give Afrezza a premium price tag and then pitted it against the drug used in the first step in the Diabetes Standard of Care: ultra low-cost Metformin. By the time their mistake became apparent, they had a new CEO who decided to pull the plug (after all, he'd been there once before with inhaled insulin and lost $2 billion trying to make it work).
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About the only thing I am fairly confident of is that the MannKind team are working their asses off to make this company a success and to bring Alfred Mann's dream of a life-changing insulin into fruition. As a shareholder, I'm encouraged that Matt Pfeffer has put together a team with the real-world experience necessary to succeed.
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The idea of an Amgen buyout makes no sense to me. A company with no sales force? The only way that would make sense is that they want the intellectual property we call Technosphere in order to develop (actually, to deliver) other drugs. Technosphere is worth much more than just Afrezza, certainly more than the $10 billion they've earmarked for acquisitions. Such an action might bring an end to Al Mann's dream. Do you think Pfeffer, the BoD and the shareholders would let that happen?
I don't. That's my two cents on the subject of an Amgen buyout.
You are always the voice of reason, and for this explanation, I thank you Mnholdem! (but I still cannot connect the dots on why these high level people would come to Mannkind if there wasn't something we don't know) We are still priced at a premium price since we can't get on to a lower tier system. Not that I am in favor of a price war but if you can't sell your product at the pricing we currently have then we need to drop our price to be very competitive with Generic Insulin and then put the screws to the high cost branded products. payer's are price motivated.
What good is having a great insulin product like Afrezza when you can't get any sales. Eventually you go bankrupt. MannKind needs to really take on the Insulin market and be the GAME CHANGER / PARDIGM shift for treatment. This is a War and we are losing it as we cash poor.
The only way we will ever sell Afrezza is to be part of a bigger company like a Teva who wants to be in the branded business but they also can sell their generic Insulin to compete with the Sanofi, Lily, Norvo companies pushing the high cost insulin. The Generic market is where the insurance companies want to push their patients. The Bio-similar market for insulin is exploding and that is why Sanofi is bleeding in their sales. I am very invested in MannKind but only see that the future is dim unless they get some cash infusion to really take on and market Afrezza. It won't happen if we go bankrupt.
I agree that the Management team is very focused with growing the company and selling Afrezza. I have no issues with what they have put in place since last January. They are doing the best they can with no cash. Matt P and Mike C. along with the rest of the team are committed. I am sure they work tirelessly 24-7 to turn this into the Blockbuster drug that Al Mann envisioned. But it takes capital. Al Mann's dream is best served by being part of a larger organization that has the capital investment to see that Afrezza is the GOLD STANDARD in the USA and Worldwide.
Do I see Amgen buy the company? Who knows. I see somebody buying the company or investing in MannKind in the next 12 months as we don't have much more time without sales of Afrezza if we are going to go it alone.
I have stated too many times that the Board of Directors have a duty to put the company up for sale before considering taking bankruptcy and seeing the assets sold for nothing and wiping out the common shareholder. The Creditors can put MannKind into bankruptcy if they feel the company is going to fail. So why wouldn't the board do the right thing and sell the company in a auction style bidding that would get the shareholders $10.00 + per share return.
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Post by seanismorris on Jan 6, 2017 12:59:54 GMT -5
I've never bought in to the buyout theory...
Let's say Amgen is interested. MannKind is backed into a corner, and Amgen would lowball the bid. If MannKind takes it, investors would loose out big time. Personally, I don't think MannKind would take it unless Afrezza fails completely and MannKind is out of cash.
If I was being optimistic, Amgen could invest in the company (say 20%) and put someone on the board. In that deal they could also take international rights to Afrezza, and help them with trials, etc.
If they were interested in TS, they could work something out there too.
Trying to be realistic, Sanofi failed so I expect interest from the big boys to be muted until scripts pick up. I do think there is value in TS, so any deal would more likely come from a hedge fund (see Sears/CEO). If they end up not able to succeed with Afrezza there is still value in selling off TS. In this kind of scenario we have a chance of getting our money back in the volatility.
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Post by kc on Jan 6, 2017 13:19:55 GMT -5
I've never bought in to the buyout theory... Let's say Amgen is interested. MannKind is backed into a corner, and Amgen would lowball the bid. If MannKind takes it, investors would loose out big time. Personally, I don't think MannKind would take it unless Afrezza fails completely and MannKind is out of cash. That is why the board must eventually deal with selling the company. I am sure there would be several bidders if that occurred. If I was being optimistic, Amgen could invest in the company (say 20%) and put someone on the board. In that deal they could also take international rights to Afrezza, and help them with trials, etc. somebody needs to invest in the company and it would be more than 20% to get the capital they need to market Afrezza in the USA and worldwide. If they were interested in TS, they could work something out there too. Trying to be realistic, Sanofi failed so I expect interest from the big boys to be muted until scripts pick up. I do think there is value in TS, so any deal would more likely come from a hedge fund (see Sears/CEO). If they end up not able to succeed with Afrezza there is still value in selling off TS. In this kind of scenario we have a chance of getting our money back in the volatility. Afrezza works but they company can't wait until scripts pick up or it will be bankrupt without a sugar daddy investor/partner
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Post by dictatorsaurus on Jan 6, 2017 14:12:46 GMT -5
Can anyone confirm if upper management has taken salary and bonus cuts?
I would think that is necessary based on the extremely poor performance. Or are they still collecting their bonuses?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2017 14:20:14 GMT -5
Can anyone confirm if upper management has taken salary and bonus cuts? I would think that is necessary based on the extremely poor performance. Or are they still collecting their bonuses? extremely poor performance from stock holder's perspective but from management side, they feel they accomplished a lot, so I guess bonus is on.
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Post by nylefty on Jan 6, 2017 14:35:45 GMT -5
Can anyone confirm if upper management has taken salary and bonus cuts? I would think that is necessary based on the extremely poor performance. Or are they still collecting their bonuses? Can anyone confirm that dict has heavily shorted MNKD?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2017 14:41:40 GMT -5
Can anyone confirm if upper management has taken salary and bonus cuts? I would think that is necessary based on the extremely poor performance. Or are they still collecting their bonuses? Can anyone confirm that dict has heavily shorted MNKD? isnt that a valid concern in times of $ crunch? when your weekly sales are hovering near $200k per month and people were let go to save the same $
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Post by dictatorsaurus on Jan 6, 2017 14:45:56 GMT -5
Can anyone confirm if upper management has taken salary and bonus cuts? I would think that is necessary based on the extremely poor performance. Or are they still collecting their bonuses? Can anyone confirm that dict has heavily shorted MNKD? No I haven't shorted MNKD. Actually I've never shorted anything. But now that you mentioned it, I actually truly wish I shorted MNKD. I would have made ridiculous amounts of money and made you envious. Sadly, I'm in the gutter with the likes of you. However, feel free to confirm how well management has performed and share with us your thorough assessment. Don't forget to take into account the current stock price, sales, the multiple successful partnerships, scripts, the successful advertising campaign, and last but not least, the embarrassment of riches!
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Post by sluggobear on Jan 6, 2017 15:03:34 GMT -5
Can anyone confirm that dict has heavily shorted MNKD? No I haven't shorted MNKD. Actually I've never shorted anything. But now that you mentioned it, I actually truly wish I shorted MNKD. I would have made ridiculous amounts of money and made you envious. Sadly, I'm in the gutter with the likes of you. However, feel free to confirm how well management has performed and share with us your thorough assessment. Don't forget to take into account the current stock price, sales, the multiple successful partnerships, scripts, the successful advertising campaign, and last but not least, the embarrassment of riches! We're way past the seventh inning here. We have no batters on deck that can hit and people are leaving the stadium. If Mannkind does not lower the price and REALLY create a huge spike in sales the stock price will never see a dollar again.
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