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Post by sophie on Jan 5, 2017 17:46:32 GMT -5
Easiest way to figure it out is to divide $10 bill by current market cap then multiply that number by current share price. Having said that, $10 bil would be a charitable donation right now. No one is going to pay that much
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Post by promann on Jan 5, 2017 17:54:11 GMT -5
Mine too but I have NO fear that payday is coming. MNKD's approach to marketing Afrezza has been practically speaking, non-existent. MNKD is keeping Afrezza on life support until their master plan elements all come together and I believe we are very, very close to that reality. I sure the hell hope it's this qtr. If a deal were to happen at $10 billion, Is there any way of calculating what a price of $10 billion would do to the pps? Educated estimates anyone? First off 10 billion would only be enough for a down payment they would have to borrow the rest to buy out MNKD unless your talking about rights to Afrezza only. It it was 10b and the news broke out tonight you would see 120 million short shares try to cover in the morning. No long in there right mind is going to be selling anything until it's in the 20sp range so the shorts will find shares very hard to find and will push the price over 30.00 per share. I hope this answers your question. Good luck to us all |
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Post by kc on Jan 5, 2017 18:04:07 GMT -5
If a deal were to happen at $10 billion, Is there any way of calculating what a price of $10 billion would do to the pps? Educated estimates anyone? First off 10 billion would only be enough for a down payment they would have to borrow the rest to buy out MNKD unless your talking about rights to Afrezza only. It it was 10b and the news broke out tonight you would see 120 million short shares try to cover in the morning. No long in there right mind is going to be selling anything until it's in the 20sp range so the shorts will find shares very hard to find and will push the price over 30.00 per share. I hope this answers your question. Good luck to us all It won't matter to us common shareholders if we hold out to see more than 10B. it will be with the next owner or the creditors of MannKind as we don't have to capital to go it alone. The board needs to make the hard decision and sell the company before it would ever need to file bankruptcy. Once it would file bankruptcy then we as common shareholder would get what we are due. 0.00 Do you get it?
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Post by mikesmilitaria on Jan 5, 2017 18:16:35 GMT -5
Proman----agreed that Afrezza alone is worth $10B but MNKD might take the $10B for the entire package given their "supposed" circumstances. I say supposed as I have strongly felt that negotiations and milestones have played a big part in all this procrastination and seemingly endless Chinese fire drills within MNKD and their market approach with Afrezza. It seems to me as though there is a plan in action with timelines and certain events that have to be coordinated and executed before they show their hand.
$10B would take the pps to ~$20 and short covering as you state could push it higher over night.
MNKD and their key players know this is a certainty and with the pps at $0.65 their purchase price would be covered with ease....then add in the tax write-offs....wow, talk about motivation.
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Post by kuka on Jan 5, 2017 20:41:08 GMT -5
I am not an acquisition expert by any means...it just all makes sense. Look at all the puzzle pieces and do some analysis. Something BIG is going on with all the new Hiring ...the VA Contract just makes buying MNKD that much more appealing. Its my theory ....I cant prove anything yet .....lets hear another explanation for the recent events...
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Post by kuka on Jan 5, 2017 20:49:02 GMT -5
you are right..that is why they are hiring diabetes experience sales professionals now .... lets wait and see if my theory has legs ......no one else can explain the recent events at MNKD
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Post by kuka on Jan 5, 2017 20:50:12 GMT -5
disagree....Afrezza could be a multi blockbuster drug in a few years...2-4 billion a year...10 Billion is a bargain.
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Post by almannlives on Jan 5, 2017 21:16:52 GMT -5
Great another buyout thread awesome.
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Post by kuka on Jan 5, 2017 21:19:33 GMT -5
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Post by kuka on Jan 5, 2017 21:23:39 GMT -5
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Post by dictatorsaurus on Jan 5, 2017 21:40:12 GMT -5
They can't sell more than 300 scripts a week, yet some think it's worth $10 billion?
Can you share your math to justify these numbers?
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 5, 2017 21:54:27 GMT -5
I am not an acquisition expert by any means...it just all makes sense. Look at all the puzzle pieces and do some analysis. Something BIG is going on with all the new Hiring ...the VA Contract just makes buying MNKD that much more appealing. Its my theory ....I cant prove anything yet .....lets hear another explanation for the recent events... Okay, I'll take you up on that.
Sanofi ended the agreement because they were not able to market and sell Afrezza. They targeted patients with early Type 2 diabetes who were insulin naïve and it turned out to be a tragic decision because Sanofi decided to give Afrezza a premium price tag and then pitted it against the drug used in the first step in the Diabetes Standard of Care: ultra low-cost Metformin. By the time their mistake became apparent, they had a new CEO who decided to pull the plug (after all, he'd been there once before with inhaled insulin and lost $2 billion trying to make it work).
Mannkind's actions since then, particularly in Matt Pfeffer's hiring choices, are all because MannKind made the decision to commercialize Afrezza themselves. Whether they no longer trusted BP companies was irrelevant. What was FACT at the time is that they had virtually no experienced leaders to successfully market and sell Afrezza on their own. All of the new hires, starting with Mike Castagna and the two VPs that report to him, are all about building up MannKind's ability to successfully commercialize Afrezza and, if possible, a few other API-TS. Dr. Raymond Urbanski was hired to take over the required post-market clinical trials agenda, work with the FDA on Afrezza development, such as labeling changes based on recent studies, and to develop epinephrine-TS and a handful of other pipeline API candidates that may attract partners and/or generate revenue if marketed by MannKind.
The idea that simply because the company is silent (they weren't silent at the 3Q16 earnings call) that it MUST mean that something big has to be in the works has less merit than the idea that the company has been silent because there is little new information for them to disclose in addition to what they have already told us. I tend to lean toward the latter.
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About the only thing I am fairly confident of is that the MannKind team are working their asses off to make this company a success and to bring Alfred Mann's dream of a life-changing insulin into fruition. As a shareholder, I'm encouraged that Matt Pfeffer has put together a team with the real-world experience necessary to succeed.
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The idea of an Amgen buyout makes no sense to me. The only way it would make sense is that they want the intellectual property we call Technosphere in order to develop (actually, to deliver) other drugs. Technosphere is worth much more than just Afrezza, certainly more than the $10 billion they've earmarked for acquisitions. Such an action might bring an end to Al Mann's dream. Do you think Pfeffer, the BoD and the shareholders would let that happen?
I don't. That's my two cents on the subject of an Amgen buyout. 
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Post by liane on Jan 5, 2017 21:58:21 GMT -5
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Post by mango on Jan 5, 2017 22:46:56 GMT -5
They have yet to target the family/acute care clinics and this is where the patients are at. Everything must be rock solid before doing this. An internal sales force is critical, hurdles like insurance cannot be in the way, an answer and solution for everything must be realized and dealt with. This is when common folk will hear for the first time ever that there is an inhaled insulin available and it's called Afrezza and can fit in their pant pocket and won't break when it drops, can be taken everywhere and used while they are talking on the phone and driving down the interstate and about to eat a delicious BBQ sanwhich, or that it is perfectly ok to toss the inhaler across a room for Sally Joe to use before chopping down during a night in watching Dance Moms. Little Billy now finds it fun to take Afrezza and loves his "insulin whistle". You get it? We are small minority of people in this country that know about it still. They get one shot. I wonder if Mike likes playing this.
You better lose yourself in the music, the moment
You own it, you better never let it go
You only get one shot, do not miss your chance to blow
This opportunity comes once in a lifetime you better
You can do anything you set your mind to, man
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Post by gamblerjag on Jan 5, 2017 22:51:55 GMT -5
so since we have # 6 some insider buying I guess AMGN b/o is off the table...
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