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Post by promann on Feb 7, 2017 11:16:25 GMT -5
(AFREZZA) alone is worth much more then the stock price is representing today.. We have a drug that is best in class FDA approved and 95% of the Diabetics have never heard of it. I predict the bottom low is very close we might see 40s but I would be extremely surprised with everything we know about Afrezza to see 30s. But I think in my personal opinion this is the low now. OK now that I discussed the low where is it going from here?? lets think what would happen if our new sales team starts getting results and the Script needle starts moving up every week over week that alone may push the price over a dollar now lets add to that some TV commercials and the 95% that are not aware of Afrezza existance becomes 50%. Now you have Diabetics reading testimonials and demanding Afrezza. Now the Script numbers get to a point of MNKD starting to make a profit What happens to the stock price then?? OK now we start the demand and a partner wants to market in other countries with insurance not being a obstacle what happens to the stock price then??
What happens in the 3rd Q and some think even earlier when MNKD annouces the FDA has approved a better label? would Doctors eyes open even wider? would insurance companies see the light?? What happens to the stock price then?? Lets think about the of Parents who want the best care that medicine has to offer for there Children. Prediction 10.00 SP before end of year without a Reverse split.. I know what we are holding and I'm all in.. Good luck..
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Post by cgiscgis on Feb 7, 2017 11:29:40 GMT -5
What do you mean without a R/S? They are going to do it, most likely a 10:1.
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Post by afleischner on Feb 7, 2017 11:34:35 GMT -5
If they reverse split 1 for 10 then the stock I bought at 10 would be100. Then that money is gone forever.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by cgiscgis on Feb 7, 2017 11:38:29 GMT -5
Yeah, isn't Matt and board awesome! CFO gone CEO who has zero experience in inbound/viral marketing. I told Castagna a long time ago to do social media marketing and he said that it wasn't legal!
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Post by kc on Feb 7, 2017 11:41:49 GMT -5
A lot of smart investors in the USA why can't MannKind find that one ACTIVIST INVESTOR who wants to take a nice ride upward and rescue MannKind? very strange it has not happened. So perhaps it will never happen.
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Post by cgiscgis on Feb 7, 2017 11:46:24 GMT -5
So far there has been ZERO interest in TS! Why? No partnership deals outside the USA and no partners for the other pipeline products. Why? RLS?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 7, 2017 11:48:45 GMT -5
I think there would be good reason to believe we set new split adjusted lows before a sustained recovery. Unless there is a rabbit in some article of Matt's clothing he's simply having a hard time pulling out, we will be doing a RS and then raising funding with dilution. If these happen there will be new lows to split adjusted price.
It seems that management has indicated scripts will not immediately shoot higher, it will take time... as in many months not weeks. Having our market cap increase by 20x as you suggest by end of year certainly seems an incredible stretch even if there is Rabbit that avoids painful dilution.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 7, 2017 12:09:31 GMT -5
Yeah, isn't Matt and board awesome! CFO gone CEO who has zero experience in inbound/viral marketing. I told Castagna a long time ago to do social media marketing and he said that it wasn't legal! Please name an FDA approved drug that has ever become successful based on "viral" marketing. It was likely that Mr. Castagna was pointing out that the type of videos or other content you were suggesting would not be allowed by FDA. Think of EVERY advert you've ever seen for drugs... they stick to facts... they often are voice overs since they are REQUIRED by FDA to include warnings and side effects. The best a company can do is have "lifestyle" images or interesting cartoons running in background to try to distract the viewer from the warnings and side effects. The content that is allowed by FDA will never go viral. If you're looking for an investment opportunity that can soar with a great viral social media campaign, you need to look outside the realm of pharmaceuticals.
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Post by gamblerjag on Feb 7, 2017 12:12:36 GMT -5
Pro.. everything you say on paper makes sense.. but without execution.. we know what will happen.. i'd go as far to say 4-5 bucks by eoy if all the things you pointed out come to fruition... without R/S.. gl
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 7, 2017 12:15:04 GMT -5
If they reverse split 1 for 10 then the stock I bought at 10 would be100. Then that money is gone forever.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If they merely do a RS and then manage some sort of a deal that avoids a dilutive round of equity financing, it might be possible we'd eventually get back to break even for you. However, if they do an RS AND have to do dilutive equity round, you are likely correct that you'll not be recouping all of your money.
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Post by lakon on Feb 7, 2017 12:19:29 GMT -5
I think there would be good reason to believe we set new split adjusted lows before a sustained recovery. Unless there is a rabbit in some article of Matt's clothing he's simply having a hard time pulling out, we will be doing a RS and then raising funding with dilution. If these happen there will be new lows to split adjusted price. It seems that management has indicated scripts will not immediately shoot higher, it will take time... as in many months not weeks. Having our market cap increase by 20x as you suggest by end of year certainly seems an incredible stretch even if there is Rabbit that avoids painful dilution. There are two ways to play this as I see it. 1) Pull the band-aid off quick (i.e., reverse split and dilute immediately). 2) Pull the band-aid off slow (i.e., reverse split and dilute near the end of the runway). Both have advantages and disadvantages, depending on your projections. #1 would show little immediate confidence in Mike C. and the Plan unless they spend the money immediately on marketing. Depending on the cost of DTC, they may need to raise cash sooner than later, but that goes contrary to Matt P's last comments on the matter (strength comments aside). #2 would show confidence in Mike C. and the Plan, but risks further share price deterioration and desperation if the Plan results are slow to move the needle. I would like to think that MNKD can show good market moving results over the next two quarters before needing cash so they will choose #2. Since doing the opposite seems to be the trend to success, I'm thinking that they actually do #1 to reduce the risk of running on fumes. I hope that they choose #3. 3) Reverse split. DTC marketing launch. Sprinkle in a few surprises over the next quarter. Then, issue a rights offering to existing shareholders, similar to EYES. Consolidate holdings with those who will not tuck tail and run. If fate favors the bold, perhaps, MNKD can grow scripts until July 4th, 2018, until another cash raise is needed. If they can grow scripts, they can reward shareholders again. If not, it will be a race to the bottom of the dilution barrel.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 7, 2017 12:45:51 GMT -5
3) Reverse split. DTC marketing launch. Sprinkle in a few surprises over the next quarter. Then, issue a rights offering to existing shareholders, similar to EYES. Consolidate holdings with those who will not tuck tail and run. If fate favors the bold, perhaps, MNKD can grow scripts until July 4th, 2018, until another cash raise is needed. If they can grow scripts, they can reward shareholders again. If not, it will be a race to the bottom of the dilution barrel. Seems they've shown boldness in the past... Not raising money when it would have been much easier on the assumption, presumably, that things were only heading up? The TASE gambit? IF, if there were some real likelihood of "surprises" that involved cash, it may be worth putting off a dilutive round. But I fear management has been too optimistic about possibilities in the past. It may seem that if you have multiple discussions about potential "surprises" going on, that statistics would kick in and something would come through. In my experience with trying to grow companies, often when you need it most is exactly when possibilities never transition to reality. It is hard to close deals from a position of perceived weakness... and potential partners will often gladly string you on. As the cash runway dwindles even the potential "surprises" can become less likely. Catch 22. I wouldn't presume to suggest a coarse of action for Mannkind since my visibility is very limited. However, my impression is that management has been overly optimistic in the past.
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Post by kc on Feb 7, 2017 12:52:57 GMT -5
3) Reverse split. DTC marketing launch. Sprinkle in a few surprises over the next quarter. Then, issue a rights offering to existing shareholders, similar to EYES. Consolidate holdings with those who will not tuck tail and run. If fate favors the bold, perhaps, MNKD can grow scripts until July 4th, 2018, until another cash raise is needed. If they can grow scripts, they can reward shareholders again. If not, it will be a race to the bottom of the dilution barrel. Seems they've shown boldness in the past... Not raising money when it would have been much easier on the assumption, presumably, that things were only heading up? The TASE gambit? IF, if there were some real likelihood of "surprises" that involved cash, it may be worth putting off a dilutive round. But I fear management has been too optimistic about possibilities in the past. It may seem that if you have multiple discussions about potential "surprises" going on, that statistics would kick in and something would come through. In my experience with trying to grow companies, often when you need it most is exactly when possibilities never transition to reality. It is hard to close deals from a position of perceived weakness... and potential partners will often gladly string you on. As the cash runway dwindles even the potential "surprises" can become less likely. Catch 22. I wouldn't presume to suggest a coarse of action for Mannkind since my visibility is very limited. However, my impression is that management has been overly optimistic in the past. perhaps they have been inhaling something in their Technosphere and its not Afrezza. Since 2010 nothing easy has happened for MannKind. I guess if it does not kill you it will make your stronger. but enough is enough. Where is the white knight?
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Post by lakon on Feb 7, 2017 13:02:29 GMT -5
Seems they've shown boldness in the past... Not raising money when it would have been much easier on the assumption, presumably, that things were only heading up? The TASE gambit? IF, if there were some real likelihood of "surprises" that involved cash, it may be worth putting off a dilutive round. But I fear management has been too optimistic about possibilities in the past. It may seem that if you have multiple discussions about potential "surprises" going on, that statistics would kick in and something would come through. In my experience with trying to grow companies, often when you need it most is exactly when possibilities never transition to reality. It is hard to close deals from a position of perceived weakness... and potential partners will often gladly string you on. As the cash runway dwindles even the potential "surprises" can become less likely. Catch 22. I wouldn't presume to suggest a coarse of action for Mannkind since my visibility is very limited. However, my impression is that management has been overly optimistic in the past. perhaps they have been inhaling something in their Technosphere and its not Afrezza. Since 2010 nothing easy has happened for MannKind. I guess if it does not kill you it will make your stronger. but enough is enough. Where is the white knight? So what you are saying is that THEY are REALLY much FURTHER ALONG with RLS than WE KNOW. Fantastic!
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Post by silentknight on Feb 7, 2017 13:11:12 GMT -5
$10 by end of the year without a reverse split? Really? I don't believe that's in any way realistic. I'm doubtful MNKD will see $10 this year WITH a split, let alone without.
1) There will be a reverse split. It will likely occur at the maximum level, 10 to 1, to give MNKD the ability to suffer the inevitable price erosion that will occur after the split happens. The price will continue to sink into the .40s before the split occurs so we'll likely end up at a share price of $4 or so when its all said and done and the split occurs in March.
After that, the share price will sink lower after the shorts and hedge funds jump in to drive the price down again and we'll probably be in the $3s within a couple of weeks after the split.
2) Assuming MNKD can actually begin selling Afrezza, which is yet to be seen, the price might stabilize enough to put a floor under it before it slowly starts to make its way upwards. Under best case scenarios, with a split, we would be lucky to see $7 to $8 and that's assuming there is no dilution, which is also very likely to occur later this year. Once dilution occurs, the possibility of current underwater shareholders being made whole again will fade to near zero.
MNKD stock will go nowhere until it proves to the market that it can sell. So far, they've proven themselves to be incapable of doing that. Label will mean nothing, pipeline will mean nothing, and hiring will mean nothing and will do zero to move the share price of the stock. Only sales will do that and until MNKD has sales, the share price will continue to decline. We likely won't have sales for several months so stop expecting a quick turnaround.
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