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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2017 22:50:59 GMT -5
These are the most interesting and confusing stories. How is it possible that an endocrinologist is this passionate about a medication that isn't selling? Surely he has around 300 diabetics in his practice alone. On top of that, does he not talk to any of his colleagues? It just doesn't add up. I am with you. It just doesn't add up. Logically you would think there would be a domino effect but there's not so what is the reason. |
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Post by seanismorris on Feb 7, 2017 23:11:39 GMT -5
Or, it adds up to something terrible for MannKind investors...
Afrezza is a niche product.
Doctors go through all the alternatives before prescribing Afrezza. Docs may think it's great, but very few patients actually need it.
We projected mealtime insulin as a 3+ billion $ market.
If MannKinds cut is 5% profitability may never happen...
A minor player of 20% of the mealtime insulin sounds pretty good right now.
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Anyone else notice the lack of patents for 2017? The last one was for 12/1/2016, 2+ months without one is unusual.
It's not as concerning as MannKinds other issues (scripts) but it might reflect a new mentality.
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Post by brotherm1 on Feb 7, 2017 23:41:31 GMT -5
Or, it adds up to something terrible for MannKind investors... Afrezza is a niche product. Doctors go through all the alternatives before prescribing Afrezza. Docs may think it's great, but very few patients actually need it. We projected mealtime insulin as a 3+ billion $ market. If MannKinds cut is 5% profitability may never happen... A minor player of 20% of the mealtime insulin sounds pretty good right now. ----- Anyone else notice the lack of patents for 2017? The last one was for 12/1/2016, 2+ months without one is unusual. It's not as concerning as MannKinds other issues (scripts) but it might reflect a new mentality. "We projected $3 billion + meal time insulin market". Is that globally or just in the US? |
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Post by afrezza on Feb 9, 2017 13:59:43 GMT -5
If you are so sure of your prediction then why don't you sell all your shares today and then short till your all time low prediction this summer and then cover and go long.. Why do you continue to be long ? It does not make any sense. If you believe what you are saying your crazy to be long. I'm obviously not responding for another poster, but given that I tend to agree with his assessment I will chime in for why I have a rather large holding that I am not selling. I do believe the most likely course of action is that there will be RS, and possibly dilutive financing that would result in new lows. I'd be making up precision that simply doesn't exist if I claimed it was 60% likely or 90% likely, but I do believe it is more likely than not (given level of info we have). However, I do believe there is possibility that MNKD has some partnership or other event that would drive the share price up. That possibility combined with the rather irrational tendency that many have to hold onto losers hoping for a turn around, is why I hold rather than sell. If we do have a RS I may well buy some puts, which would be a hedge against fall in share price. Unfortunately at our current price, options aren't economically feasible for hedging downside risk... so one is stuck holding or selling. Thank You, I couldn't have said it better. One more reason I don't sell is cause there is still the possibility of any sudden good news that makes our shares skyrocketing with that immense short ratio. And...going short on MNKD right now is very dangerous. And... I will never short this stock. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Feb 9, 2017 14:39:57 GMT -5
The shorts say it'll be a cold day in hell when ...  ... Mannkind shares take off. Well the northeast is getting hammered today. Looks like the party will start tomorrow instead of monday. This is like in Hawaii ... you tell people cocktails at 6 and dinner at 7 ... you will see people drifting in at 5. What the heck?!!! Think my invitations should say ... water at 6 and cocktails and dinner at 7? What do you think? Hawaiian language lesson for today is ... Okole Maluna. Don't get grossed out, but Okole means your butt. Maluna means someone who rises above. So, you have Okole Maluna to mean ... "Bottoms Up" Let the party begin!!! |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 9, 2017 15:01:37 GMT -5
These are the most interesting and confusing stories. How is it possible that an endocrinologist is this passionate about a medication that isn't selling? Surely he has around 300 diabetics in his practice alone. On top of that, does he not talk to any of his colleagues? It just doesn't add up. I am with you. It just doesn't add up. Logically you would think there would be a domino effect but there's not so what is the reason. I think many underestimate the effect of poor payer coverage. A year ago a doc that had prescribed Afrezza would probably have said "There's a new insulin I've used that has worked really well for some of my patients. It's a bit tricky for them at first because it doesn't seem to work quite the same as injected prandial, but once they got the hang of it the results were surprisingly good. Unfortunately, few insurance plans cover it, and even those that do, you have a pre authorization battle to go through. Oh... and can't be prescribed for anyone with lung issues or smoked recently, and have to send patient for spirometry... and only approved for adults." To which that earlier adopter doc might have heard in response... "Sounds interesting. Let me know how that goes. I might take a look at it at some point." Caveat... This is a dialog that is purely a product of my imagination. So MNKD management is working through these issues. Already the story is better... but yet more improvement is needed. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2017 19:17:02 GMT -5
I am with you. It just doesn't add up. Logically you would think there would be a domino effect but there's not so what is the reason. I think many underestimate the effect of poor payer coverage. A year ago a doc that had prescribed Afrezza would probably have said "There's a new insulin I've used that has worked really well for some of my patients. It's a bit tricky for them at first because it doesn't seem to work quite the same as injected prandial, but once they got the hang of it the results were surprisingly good. Unfortunately, few insurance plans cover it, and even those that do, you have a pre authorization battle to go through. Oh... and can't be prescribed for anyone with lung issues or smoked recently, and have to send patient for spirometry... and only approved for adults." To which that earlier adopter doc might have heard in response... "Sounds interesting. Let me know how that goes. I might take a look at it at some point." Caveat... This is a dialog that is purely a product of my imagination. So MNKD management is working through these issues. Already the story is better... but yet more improvement is needed. You make a good point and I agree that insurance is playing a huge part, but even then the numbers are that bad its really out there |
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 9, 2017 20:12:52 GMT -5
Is it reasonable to think that insurers will be favorably influenced if significant patient demand is generated by MannKind's DTC campaign for Afrezza in 2017?
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Post by agedhippie on Feb 9, 2017 21:08:20 GMT -5
Is it reasonable to think that insurers will be favorably influenced if significant patient demand is generated by MannKind's DTC campaign for Afrezza in 2017? No. As evidence I produce the UHC decision to go Minimed only, and the multi-year train wreck that is the RAA negotiations to decide who the only RAA I can buy is. Then there is the whole thing around meters... Insurers are remarkably resistant to consumer pressure as the insured are a captive market - I cannot remember the exact percentage but easily the majority of insured people in the US are on either government or employment-based plans and so cannot change. |
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Post by sophie on Feb 9, 2017 21:16:36 GMT -5
I am with you. It just doesn't add up. Logically you would think there would be a domino effect but there's not so what is the reason. I think many underestimate the effect of poor payer coverage. A year ago a doc that had prescribed Afrezza would probably have said "There's a new insulin I've used that has worked really well for some of my patients. It's a bit tricky for them at first because it doesn't seem to work quite the same as injected prandial, but once they got the hang of it the results were surprisingly good. Unfortunately, few insurance plans cover it, and even those that do, you have a pre authorization battle to go through. Oh... and can't be prescribed for anyone with lung issues or smoked recently, and have to send patient for spirometry... and only approved for adults." To which that earlier adopter doc might have heard in response... "Sounds interesting. Let me know how that goes. I might take a look at it at some point." Caveat... This is a dialog that is purely a product of my imagination. So MNKD management is working through these issues. Already the story is better... but yet more improvement is needed. That scenario is certainly possible. I would like to see more of a linear progression with script count and increasing coverage though before I believe that is the reason. Also, would like to see refills higher as well. I'm not sure why people would start a therapy they're not planning on continuing for a lifelong disease. It could make sense for those in a deductible/doughnut hole situation where they go on injectables when the cost is higher to them and switch to Afrezza once they've reached their out of pocket max, but even then, scripts would have increased toward the end of the year to support this rationale. |
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Post by promann on Feb 11, 2017 7:32:47 GMT -5
What do you mean without a R/S? They are going to do it, most likely a 10:1. They are not positively going to do it.. They might do it if it is required to keep from delisting. They still may get a 180 day extension so the Split would not be needed. Also there could be a positive news event that could send the share price above the 1.00 mark for 10 consecutive days which again would result in not needing to do a reverse split. I personally think Matt is only being cautious in having a reverse split approved just in case it was needed to do so. its a tool to have at his disposal just encase and he would be negligent if he was not prepared. I'm sure the board met and recommended to be safe. |
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Post by kc on Feb 11, 2017 7:55:08 GMT -5
What do you mean without a R/S? They are going to do it, most likely a 10:1. They are not positively going to do it.. They might do it if it is required to keep from delisting. They still may get a 180 day extension so the Split would not be needed. Also there could be a positive news event that could send the share price above the 1.00 mark for 10 consecutive days which again would result in not needing to do a reverse split. I personally think Matt is only being cautious in having a reverse split approved just in case it was needed to do so. its a tool to have at his disposal just encase and he would be negligent if he was not prepared. I'm sure the board met and recommended to be safe. Well stated. The positive event of a turn around is getting approval by NASDAQ of the plan for a reverse split that never has to take place. The seeds for a turnaround have firmly planted in the ground And will begin sprouting in the spring and summer. It is actually remarkable what the management team has accomplished in less than 12 months. Sure we would like to of seen rapid sales and rising PPS, But the fact is this is a newly reborn company and success will not happen overnight. |
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Post by falconquest on Feb 11, 2017 8:00:34 GMT -5
What do you mean without a R/S? They are going to do it, most likely a 10:1. They are not positively going to do it.. They might do it if it is required to keep from delisting. They still may get a 180 day extension so the Split would not be needed. Also there could be a positive news event that could send the share price above the 1.00 mark for 10 consecutive days which again would result in not needing to do a reverse split. I personally think Matt is only being cautious in having a reverse split approved just in case it was needed to do so. its a tool to have at his disposal just encase and he would be negligent if he was not prepared. I'm sure the board met and recommended to be safe. I purchased my first shares at $19.00 because there was going to be a partnership deal. When they finally got one.......well, we know how that turned out. While it is a possibility there is a deal just around the corner that just may save the company from de-listing, the likelihood is near zero. Just look how many here thought the last shareholder conference was going to be positive. You can hope for a catalyst that will double the share price but again, the chances are very slim. |
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Post by kc on Feb 11, 2017 8:28:58 GMT -5
Falconquest get over it. You keep repeating the same negative crap.
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Post by lennymnkd on Feb 11, 2017 8:39:51 GMT -5
Promann totaly agree / most logical conclusion from the info available to us .
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... Mannkind shares take off. Well the northeast is getting hammered today. Looks like the party will start tomorrow instead of monday.
