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Post by kbrion77 on Feb 11, 2017 8:42:21 GMT -5
Or, it adds up to something terrible for MannKind investors... Afrezza is a niche product. Doctors go through all the alternatives before prescribing Afrezza. Docs may think it's great, but very few patients actually need it. We projected mealtime insulin as a 3+ billion $ market. If MannKinds cut is 5% profitability may never happen... A minor player of 20% of the mealtime insulin sounds pretty good right now. ----- Anyone else notice the lack of patents for 2017? The last one was for 12/1/2016, 2+ months without one is unusual. It's not as concerning as MannKinds other issues (scripts) but it might reflect a new mentality. Mannkind can survive and operate if Afrezza is a niche for a while before it is universally known that this insulin is what should be in your body. Right now sales wise this product is failing and not even close to being a niche, it still has a long way to go to fall into the niche category.
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Post by lennymnkd on Feb 11, 2017 8:50:01 GMT -5
Niche , would actually be good ! A somewhat of a clinical trial in of itself ..
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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 11, 2017 9:20:53 GMT -5
A niche would be better than the ditch they are currently in as that would seem to be a step in the right direction. I would think the Mann Group would want to avoid an R/S just like every other shareholder. Unless I am missing something I suspect they have the most to loose. I would sure like to see MNKD toting some of these T2 early insulin studies and sponsor one specifically using afrezza. At its conclusion they should have a great story to tell and would gain a great amount of earned advertising if they can show afrezza stops and in some cases reverses T2 progression. That's something which you would think would get national attention both in the news and with the government with the VA and Medicare.
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Post by falconquest on Feb 11, 2017 9:27:45 GMT -5
Falconquest get over it. You keep repeating the same negative crap. And I keep hearing unrealistic positive crap as though all of a sudden things are going to magically turn around because Matt has a plan that he is concealing in his back pocket. That is not only unfair and misleading to others but establishes unrealistic expectations for Matt. Don't misinterpret me, I believe there are many positive things taking place, and I also believe we have the greatest insulin product ever developed. What I would like to hear are logical comments about investment strategy with a potential delisting staring us in the face. I'll stop. Good luck with the pie in the sky solutions.
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Post by kc on Feb 11, 2017 9:44:18 GMT -5
I don't believe that anybody here is giving any pie in the sky comments. I think we are all very realistic that we have a bad hand. But the management team has worked diligently to work their way to a better hand. It will not happen overnight so we need to just sit back and hope that they play the right cards.
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Post by gamblerjag on Feb 11, 2017 13:00:53 GMT -5
Falcon, I also use to get on a few YMB folks for their overzealous predictions, Kevinmik, Hawaiiguy and I forget the worst one of them all???.. mainly because they were saying things will be happening always in the next few days or weeks and for years they said that. Where I still have a positive outlook for this stock, I don't see anything wrong with people giving their positive spins, because probably they really believe it.. I think they think the likelihood of success will happen especially if it's down the road.. which is more likely than someone saying B/O by next month. every month over a 18 month period. or partner by next week every week for 18 months... damn what was the posters name that drove me bonkers???
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Post by gamblerjag on Feb 11, 2017 13:01:56 GMT -5
lakon.. why are you ruling out 180 ext...
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2017 13:22:44 GMT -5
NRx, TRx and cash are the only numbers that are important right now. We have around 80 reps that hit the streets this Monday morning. Some were selling Afrezza as Touchpoint employees so they know the product, docs and diabetes. They need no time to ramp. The other reps likely came from Sanofi, Novo or another diabetes company. They know the docs, diabetes and have just completed what I assume to be a very thorough education on Afrezza.
Within three weeks, my expectation is that reps will start to have a positive impact on NRx. Modest at the beginning but should have stable growth that ramps W/W.
Two potential / significant impacts of a 180 day extension:
1 - extra 6 mos to sell Afrezza and if the growth is solid and steady and refill rate is vastly improved over what the Sanofi and Touchpoint sales teams were able to accomplish - SP should grow. Given better sample and titration packs, Mannkind Cares prior auth program, improved insurance coverage and the Spirometry issue managed in a more effective manner the inertia to get an Afrezza prescription written and filled is less that it was even 6 months ago not to mention a year or when Sanofi began selling. Still a pretty small salesforce but as I have said several times, a few hundred endos giving Afrezza support would ramp sales nicely.
2 - a potential deal or two that brings in > $50mm + so that even if Afrezza sales don't drive SP > $1, we have enough cash so that even with a RS, there is not an immediate need to raise more money.
Food for thought: lets say sales start to grow and we get some type of extension and by late May, Mannkind is trading at $1.85 / share, what as CEO or CFO would you do? With the burn rate around $10mm / month, unless you knew definitively that a lot of cash was coming in due to a deal, you would likely want to raise enough money for another 6 months. Of the 700 million shares authorized, about 500 million are issued. Would Matt simply start to trickle around 30 mm shares into the market and take in around $54 mm? Once word hit the street, SP would drop again. Would Matt try to privately place the shares (can he do this and then issue a PR and would going this route require dangling some warrants so additional dilution?). Another option, if things are going well, would Matt still consider a RS to reduce the share count? Matt has to have some investment bankers to advise on some of this stuff. Al Mann had a strong relationship with BOA. Perhaps Matt still speaks / works with them.
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Post by falconquest on Feb 11, 2017 16:25:35 GMT -5
NRx, TRx and cash are the only numbers that are important right now. We have around 80 reps that hit the streets this Monday morning. Some were selling Afrezza as Touchpoint employees so they know the product, docs and diabetes. They need no time to ramp. The other reps likely came from Sanofi, Novo or another diabetes company. They know the docs, diabetes and have just completed what I assume to be a very thorough education on Afrezza. Within three weeks, my expectation is that reps will start to have a positive impact on NRx. Modest at the beginning but should have stable growth that ramps W/W. Two potential / significant impacts of a 180 day extension: 1 - extra 6 mos to sell Afrezza and if the growth is solid and steady and refill rate is vastly improved over what the Sanofi and Touchpoint sales teams were able to accomplish - SP should grow. Given better sample and titration packs, Mannkind Cares prior auth program, improved insurance coverage and the Spirometry issue managed in a more effective manner the inertia to get an Afrezza prescription written and filled is less that it was even 6 months ago not to mention a year or when Sanofi began selling. Still a pretty small salesforce but as I have said several times, a few hundred endos giving Afrezza support would ramp sales nicely. 2 - a potential deal or two that brings in > $50mm + so that even if Afrezza sales don't drive SP > $1, we have enough cash so that even with a RS, there is not an immediate need to raise more money. Food for thought: lets say sales start to grow and we get some type of extension and by late May, Mannkind is trading at $1.85 / share, what as CEO or CFO would you do? With the burn rate around $10mm / month, unless you knew definitively that a lot of cash was coming in due to a deal, you would likely want to raise enough money for another 6 months. Of the 700 million shares authorized, about 500 million are issued. Would Matt simply start to trickle around 30 mm shares into the market and take in around $54 mm? Once word hit the street, SP would drop again. Would Matt try to privately place the shares (can he do this and then issue a PR and would going this route require dangling some warrants so additional dilution?). Another option, if things are going well, would Matt still consider a RS to reduce the share count? Matt has to have some investment bankers to advise on some of this stuff. Al Mann had a strong relationship with BOA. Perhaps Matt still speaks / works with them. You really believe this could nearly quadruple in price by June?
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Post by bioexec25 on Feb 11, 2017 20:34:20 GMT -5
Hi Falcon, not sure about quad by June. But we have a protracted state of flat scripts and increasingly obvious thesis that the market first just wants to see material upticks in scripts, coverage and yes any reasonable acceptance of Afrezza. For those close to detail we see a buildup of sales activity that may have a reasonable hit rate that could double or triple scripts in a relatively short time. This could cause the market to react and trigger a reasonably material run. This then followed by more success and subsequent runs. Run by run and soon we're talking about real gains.
Optimistic Saturday check-in.
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Post by mango on Feb 12, 2017 6:56:19 GMT -5
Or, it adds up to something terrible for MannKind investors... Afrezza is a niche product. Doctors go through all the alternatives before prescribing Afrezza. Docs may think it's great, but very few patients actually need it. We projected mealtime insulin as a 3+ billion $ market. If MannKinds cut is 5% profitability may never happen... A minor player of 20% of the mealtime insulin sounds pretty good right now. ----- Anyone else notice the latest ck of patents for 2017? The last one was for 12/1/2016, 2+ months without one is unusual.It's not as concerning as MannKinds other issues (scripts) but it mgight reflect a new mentality. January 17, 2017 IRE-1α inhibitors patents.justia.com/patent/9546149
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Post by promann on Feb 12, 2017 7:07:28 GMT -5
Or, it adds up to something terrible for MannKind investors... Afrezza is a niche product. Doctors go through all the alternatives before prescribing Afrezza. Docs may think it's great, but very few patients actually need it. We projected mealtime insulin as a 3+ billion $ market. If MannKinds cut is 5% profitability may never happen... A minor player of 20% of the mealtime insulin sounds pretty good right now. ----- Anyone else notice the latest ck of patents for 2017? The last one was for 12/1/2016, 2+ months without one is unusual.It's not as concerning as MannKinds other issues (scripts) but it mgight reflect a new mentality. January 17, 2017 IRE-1α inhibitors patents.justia.com/patent/9546149Mango. What are you trying to say in laments term. That is a lot of high tech data to read through and I would like to know what you are getting at here.. Oh never mind I just caught it. Your proving seanismoris wrong! There have been more patents since 12/1/2016 thanks for that..
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Post by lakon on Feb 12, 2017 7:55:52 GMT -5
lakon.. why are you ruling out 180 ext... I don't mean to rule out a 180 day extension, but I don't want to count on it. That's the position of the company by getting approval for a R/S. If you count the days, like I did in another thread, it is awful coincidental that the shareholders meeting is immediately before the 10 day countdown to de-listing... Also, I think that MNKD should reduce the share count into strength. This time might be the strongest position in a while. (I know nobody wanted to hear CEO Matt say it, but maybe he has a point, relatively speaking.)
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Post by mango on Feb 12, 2017 8:11:06 GMT -5
Falconquest get over it. You keep repeating the same negative crap. And I keep hearing unrealistic positive crap as though all of a sudden things are going to magically turn around because Matt has a plan that he is concealing in his back pocket. That is not only unfair and misleading to others but establishes unrealistic expectations for Matt. Don't misinterpret me, I believe there are many positive things taking place, and I also believe we have the greatest insulin product ever developed. What I would like to hear are logical comments about investment strategy with a potential delisting staring us in the face. I'll stop. Good luck with the pie in the sky solutions. And I keep hearing unrealistic positive crap as though all of a sudden things are going to magically turn around because Matt has a plan that he is concealing in his back pocket. Only you, yourself, are letting those positive speculations which you refer to as crap affect you in such a dramatic way. Why does it bother you so much? You do not have to read them, or even post a response because when you do, you persist to keep going on and on. It bothers you that there are many people that enjoy sharing positive speculations. That is not only unfair and misleading to others What others? Adults that are intelligent enough to be able to use a computer and even know how to invest? Eh, I don't think so. Speculation is speculation and if someone's mind can be influenced by an internet poster that is sharing their speculative thoughts then I fear that those same people probably are influenced in far, far more dramatic ways in everyday life. God forbid if they were to ever watch an infomercial or commercial. So—how do you rationale what you claim? Who are these "others" and how have they been affected by an internet post that is about speculation? but establishes unrealistic expectations for Matt. So you also are claiming that Matt feels he must live up to speculation or wild theories? How do you know this? Did he actually tell you this because I know for a fact he did not. That is just you making a wild nonsensical claim, which you are trying to paint in as a fact. Don't misinterpret me, I am not. You are straightforward. I believe there are many positive things taking place, and I also believe we have the greatest insulin product ever developed. Right. What I would like to hear are logical comments about investment strategy with a potential delisting staring us in the face. Before, you wanted logical explanations for why anyone should even still hold MNKD. Now, you want investment advice from people on the internet. You already know what choices are available. Stop playing games. Tell me this, what is more unfair and misleading in your opinion—someone trying to get others to share investment advice posted on here for all to see (this is a public forum btw) or wild speculation and theories for all to see? I sure hope you get where I am going with this. Hypocrite. I'll stop. Good luck with the pie in the sky solutions.Good luck to you as well.
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Post by mango on Feb 12, 2017 8:29:17 GMT -5
Mango. What are you trying to say in laments term. That is a lot of high tech data to read through and I would like to know what you are getting at here.. Oh never mind I just caught it. Your proving seanismoris wrong! There have been more patents since 12/1/2016 thanks for that.. You brought up a good point. Reminded me of something I read once. Believe it was in the last 10-Q dated 11/09/2016. Oh yes, here it is: The Company believes that the manufacturing services are proprietary due to the fact that since the late 1990’s, the Company has developed proprietary knowledge and patented equipment and tools that are used in the manufacturing process of Afrezza. Due to the complexities of particle formulation and the specialized knowledge and equipment needed to handle the Afrezza powder, neither Sanofi nor, to the Company’s knowledge, any third-party contract manufacturing organization currently possesses the capability of manufacturing Afrezza.
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