MNKD Charts

[Deleted]

[liane]

douge,

What's your interpretation?

[Deleted]

It does not look good for longs unless they want to add to their position in the near future. Bearish Engulfing. Watch MNKD's lower channel support. Look at Keynesonomics chart. We will drift lower undoubtedly. NDA submission is 2 months away. FDA decision is 8 months away. However a run-up upon NDA submission is likely for this October if management follows through with dates and a stronger run-up depending on PPS near FDA decision is almost guaranteed. Assuming PPS would be foolish so no predictions on that. Biotech has no fundamentals, they are all speculative and are controlled by retail investor's feelings. Makes for a great candidate for MM's and pumpers, dumpers, bashers and shorters. All my own belief.

[liane]

And of course any rumor of partnership should get it moving north.

[Deleted]

Yes, yes as always a rumor of a partnership will move MNKD northwards. However, a rumor is just that a rumor and unless unequivocal evidence can show a partnership is truly underway MNKD will once again move southwards and fluctuate as history has shown. Do you not find it interesting as I have that MNKD partnership articles have been nearly timed perfectly when volume is low to stimulate a buyer and seller situation? A scenario that highly benefits MM's? Pumpers also play into the hype to increase the price of MNKD stock only to sell days later. Shorts also play a hand in the hype and let the stock ride up only to capitalize on misinformed or not fully informed investors with high expectations and accumulate as seen in increased short interest. Pumpers then use this to state a massive short squeeze will occur to further propel MNKD stock upwards. I ask you this: have you seen MNKD have a massive short squeeze? No. It will most surely not ever occur although there is a minute chance. Take the phase iii results as an example of built in price versus reality as a recent example. Add in the poor blokes that make partnership articles without a disclosure. Add in the Fool and Seeking Alpha that capitalizes on internet traffic to produce revenue as well as shift market sentiment and then.. you have... the market. All my belief of course.

[liane]

Everything you mentioned are the usual methods of manipulation. Rumor of partnership will not sustain a pop for long. However, there is a very real possibility of actual partnership news sometime between now and the end of the year. That will send the pps up, and I doubt anyone wants to miss out on that. That possibility will dominate trading for the next several weeks / months.

[StevieRay]

Aug 20, 2013 16:59:44 GMT -5 @douge said:

Yes, yes as always a rumor of a partnership will move MNKD northwards. However, a rumor is just that a rumor and unless unequivocal evidence can show a partnership is truly underway MNKD will once again move southwards and fluctuate as history has shown. Do you not find it interesting as I have that MNKD partnership articles have been nearly timed perfectly when volume is low to stimulate a buyer and seller situation? A scenario that highly benefits MM's? Pumpers also play into the hype to increase the price of MNKD stock only to sell days later. Shorts also play a hand in the hype and let the stock ride up only to capitalize on misinformed or not fully informed investors with high expectations and accumulate as seen in increased short interest. Pumpers then use this to state a massive short squeeze will occur to further propel MNKD stock upwards. I ask you this: have you seen MNKD have a massive short squeeze? No. It will most surely not ever occur although there is a minute chance. Take the phase iii results as an example of built in price versus reality as a recent example. Add in the poor blokes that make partnership articles without a disclosure. Add in the Fool and Seeking Alpha that capitalizes on internet traffic to produce revenue as well as shift market sentiment and then.. you have... the market. All my belief of course.

Suggest you read the following:
www.news.mannkindcorp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=147953&p=IROL-secToc&TOC=aHR0cDovL2FwaS50ZW5rd2l6YXJkLmNvbS9vdXRsaW5lLnhtbD9yZXBvPXRlbmsmaXBhZ2U9OTAxMDc0MyZzdWJzaWQ9NTc%3d&ListAll=1

And then when you're done with that take a gander at this:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage

Now you know what makes a market.

[Deleted]

Yes, yes I did mention the usual methods of manipulation for they are exactly what I see in this stock currently. Alfred Mann's interview yesterday with Fox reaffirms my belief that this stock is heavily, heavily, heavily manipulated. The rumor that is picking up speed right now is that MNKD and J & J may partner. Noise again.

Do you believe a partnership is likely this go around?

[liane]

Aug 20, 2013 17:17:55 GMT -5 @douge said:

Yes, yes I did mention the usual methods of manipulation for they are exactly what I see in this stock currently. Alfred Mann's interview yesterday with Fox reaffirms my belief that this stock is heavily, heavily, heavily manipulated. The rumor that is picking up speed right now is that MNKD and J & J may partner. Noise again.

Do you believe a partnership is likely this go around?

I do think partnership is very likely. The hiring of Greenhill virtually assures this. Management has been hitting their timelines lately. They said - in the next 4 months, and I tend to believe them. I can only hope it's sooner rather than later and catches the shorts unaware.

[Deleted]

yes, yes fair and valid point. The hiring of Greenhill is a bad sign for me. In my belief, Mnkd management has been the one initiating a partnership and less so the other way around. This is why I believe MNKD has not finalized any partnerships in the past although they have been in negotiations.

Who do you think will partner with MNKD? I doubt Pfizer will attempt their hand at inhalable insulin again although Afrezza is completely different and superior to Exubera. I just don't believe Pfizer would take another billion dollar gamble. It does not seem like a viable option to me. And how about the various other biopharmaceutical companies that have abandoned inhalable insulin? They too seem to not see any value in Afrezza especially with it's subpar results although phase iii results met it's endpoints.

Another concern of mine is the fact that many people still believe needles to be painful but have you been injected with a 30 gauge needle? It is not painful at all as it was decades ago. This is a weak bull case I see in many of these articles. The focus should not be on the threshold of less pain Afrezza may provide because of it's delivery method. The focus of the delivery method should lay solely on it's ability to enter the body via the lungs much faster than insulin injections subcutaneously, usually administered into the thigh, buttocks abdomen and upper arm. Do you agree?

[StevieRay]

Aug 20, 2013 17:40:47 GMT -5 @douge said:

yes, yes fair and valid point. The hiring of Greenhill is a bad sign for me. In my belief, Mnkd management has been the one initiating a partnership and less so the other way around. This is why I believe MNKD has not finalized any partnerships in the past although they have been in negotiations.

Who do you think will partner with MNKD? I doubt Pfizer will attempt their hand at inhalable insulin again although Afrezza is completely different and superior to Exubera. I just don't believe Pfizer would take another billion dollar gamble. It does not seem like a viable option to me. And how about the various other biopharmaceutical companies that have abandoned inhalable insulin? They too seem to not see any value in Afrezza especially with it's subpar results although phase iii results met it's endpoints.

Another concern of mine is the fact that many people still believe needles to be painful but have you been injected with a 30 gauge needle? It is not painful at all as it was decades ago. This is a weak bull case I see in many of these articles. The focus should not be on the threshold of less pain Afrezza may provide because of it's delivery method. The focus of the delivery method should lay solely on it's ability to enter the body via the lungs much faster than insulin injections subcutaneously, usually administered into the thigh, buttocks abdomen and upper arm. Do you agree?

Here's a interesting article by George Rho related to the potential partners.
Pricing A Highly Probable Takeover Of MannKind:
seekingalpha.com/article/1452521-pricing-a-highly-probable-takeover-of-mannkind

Actually it was this one that I was searching for that looked at the possible partners.  The one above just deals with the potential price.
Biotech: Let's Make A Billion-Dollar Deal
seekingalpha.com/article/1553072-biotech-lets-make-a-billion-dollar-deal

[Deleted]

Aug 20, 2013 17:50:28 GMT -5 StevieRay said:

Aug 20, 2013 17:40:47 GMT -5 @douge said:

yes, yes fair and valid point. The hiring of Greenhill is a bad sign for me. In my belief, Mnkd management has been the one initiating a partnership and less so the other way around. This is why I believe MNKD has not finalized any partnerships in the past although they have been in negotiations.

Who do you think will partner with MNKD? I doubt Pfizer will attempt their hand at inhalable insulin again although Afrezza is completely different and superior to Exubera. I just don't believe Pfizer would take another billion dollar gamble. It does not seem like a viable option to me. And how about the various other biopharmaceutical companies that have abandoned inhalable insulin? They too seem to not see any value in Afrezza especially with it's subpar results although phase iii results met it's endpoints.

Another concern of mine is the fact that many people still believe needles to be painful but have you been injected with a 30 gauge needle? It is not painful at all as it was decades ago. This is a weak bull case I see in many of these articles. The focus should not be on the threshold of less pain Afrezza may provide because of it's delivery method. The focus of the delivery method should lay solely on it's ability to enter the body via the lungs much faster than insulin injections subcutaneously, usually administered into the thigh, buttocks abdomen and upper arm. Do you agree?

Here's a interesting article by George Rho related to the potential partners.
Pricing A Highly Probable Takeover Of MannKind:
seekingalpha.com/article/1452521-pricing-a-highly-probable-takeover-of-mannkind

Thanks for the article, I've read it already. George Rho releases decent articles his last article wasn't of the same caliber as this one.

A big company partnering with MNKD would of been more likely if MNKD wasn't able to market Afrezza alone. Considering MNKD has it's own supply of insulin in inventory and a manufacturing plant it sure makes a partnership negotiation more difficult. Alfred E. Mann is also in the way of discussions in my opinion and the fact that management wants to focus on US sales first before expanding worldwide can also deter partners with a varying belief. What do you think?

[StevieRay]

I think I'll leave it to Al and the management team to navigate these waters. We've gotten this far and I'm sure Al will ensure to protect share holder value. He is after all the largest share holder so I'm not too worried about if it is more or less strategic for MannKind to go after the EU now or later. The fact that they brought in a professional team to select a partner(s) speaks volumes.
I'm not sure I appreciate your view on the insulin supply. From what I understand is it is a very complex process and requires very specialized equipment to produce the technosphere which contains the insulin. This plant has already been reviewed and approved by the FDA so this is a huge advantage than if a new partner would be burdened with this effort. How can this be viewed as a liability?

[Deleted]

The plant will still have to be fully inspected once again in the upcoming months, which will cost additional funds and time. The DB plant has once won awards for it's state of the art equipment. You are right technosphere technology is quite complex and the process is intriguing and requires calculated precision and science thus the process is computerized.

It is not necessarily a liability it is an asset... an asset that MNKD controls therefore a partner can not use it as leverage as seen for most developing small cap biotechs. So a partnership may involve a milestone payment instead since MNKD already has insulin in hand and a plant and since MNKD's trials were extended for Europe submission, a partner does not have much too offer but small help along the ways and process therefore the terms of the partnership may not prove favorable enough for an outside partner. A large bio company would be more interested in an acquisition then a partnership in my belief.

[StevieRay]

Douge, MannKind has the goods but they don't have the marketing resources that a solid BP has already in place and ready to go. One way or another a deal will be struck. Could be an all out buy out or some sort of multiple partner relationship. I think all the cards are on the table and for us to speculate on the outcome is a fools errand. At the end of the day Afrezza will be on the market and revenues will be flowing. How the revenue pie gets divided up is the only thing in question. I believe that Al will protect our share of the pie. Other CEO's who don't have enough skin in the game would have me worried. Al's got plenty of skin in the game and that alone allows me to sleep at night.