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Post by mytakeonit on Nov 7, 2017 18:05:17 GMT -5
As we all agreed ... ads will increase scripts rapidly.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 7, 2017 18:05:42 GMT -5
Mike needs more cash for TV ads and Super Bowl primetime slot! NO, no Super Bowl... better to do regional targeting where they have most favorable insurance coverage and positive endo KOLs.
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Post by alethea on Nov 7, 2017 18:07:04 GMT -5
A blind man has been able to see MNKD will need more funds. It's obvious. The 57 million raise only extends 6 months or so. Afrezza sales won't be cash flow positive in just six months. The newly authorized shares are good news. Nate Pile and I'm sure this Michael Kovacky (sp?) think this is a very positive development. This has been expected. It is good. That's seeing any a few drops in the glass and calling it full. It had better be some amazing Scotch. Dream, how would you propose they get more cash? Or did you expect the 57 million to sustain them until Afrezza become cash positive?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 7, 2017 18:09:18 GMT -5
As we all agreed ... ads will increase scripts rapidly. Not all of us agreed on that. Hopefully the regional approach will get much higher bang for the buck. I still think large % will be going into doctors offices asking "Is it right for me" and being told "Nope". Would love to know if within certain regional ad markets they've managed to get much higher clinician acceptance. If I were them I'd really have sales efforts focused on key markets. If they could show growth trajectory taking off just in those markets, I would think that could be ammo for capital raise and partnerships.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 7, 2017 18:13:20 GMT -5
That's seeing any a few drops in the glass and calling it full. It had better be some amazing Scotch. Dream, how would you propose they get more cash? Or did you expect the 57 million to sustain them until Afrezza become cash positive? Doubling the number of shares is kinda shocking. Mike has previously hinted that they'd work on non dilutive means. Now we've had one dilution and this indicating a real possibility of huge amount of dilution before we get to break even. It may be necessary, but announcing this much and with very, very little discussion... I think it was a misstep. The prudent investor is now going to be dividing whatever market cap they feel MNKD can eventually reach on Afrezza by 280 million to get share price and then discounting for time and risk. I'd propose he rob a bank. If he's good enough he won't get caught and it really is non dilutive. Oh, and I really had hoped that they would have sold into the strength using the ATM... but too late to propose that.
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Post by madog365 on Nov 7, 2017 18:52:47 GMT -5
I thought the call was very positive, lots of great things happening in mnkd land to promote afrezza growth. However I really wish there was more information about why Mannkind wants to double the authorized shares. DOUBLE. Hypothetically Someone could acquire all of these shares via a direct offering and own 50+% of the company.
Another thing I found interesting, mike mentioned that international partnering discussions are still happening and near term. It was also listed as the next item on the checklist slide.
Finally at the end of the call when questions were finished mike brought up UAE on his own accord, he mentioned that the previous CEO had a deal on the table a regional partner in one middle eastern country however mike is more focused on getting a deal with a bigger regional player that can cover multiple countries, something like all of the Middle East and India.
Now bear with me, but that sounds like a much bigger deal , and given mikes projections in previous calls where he showed a map of the world and predicted afrezza to be distributed (or on file) in 50% of the world within a year
A partner like that would likely be a big pharma company, and one that would most likely buy into Mannkind or outright acquire it if the partnership was successful.
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Post by sayhey24 on Nov 7, 2017 19:02:56 GMT -5
They seemed pretty confident they were going to at least hit the low side of the $9M guidance which means they have to hit about $4M this quarter. I think the only way they do that is closing an international deal and accounting for sales when the invoice is issued to the wholesaler.
I think they are heading in the right direction with the velocity picking up a little faster than I expected.
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Post by mytakeonit on Nov 7, 2017 19:05:02 GMT -5
As far as the additional shares ... no respectable company has only 110M or so shares ... how embarrassing!!! Add 140M and MNKD won't seem so small.
And ever at $6 per share ... 140M shares would add $840M to cash. WOW !!! With advertising starting ... I'm sure we'll be above $6 pps soon.
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Post by slugworth008 on Nov 7, 2017 19:42:28 GMT -5
Clear indicator of further dilution on the way. Pair that with the huge miss with guidance and I’m betting the stock falls like a rock tomorrow. AH yes, the silent one re-emerges with glee and optimism. You should trim your beard and chill - IMO
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 7, 2017 20:15:12 GMT -5
As far as the additional shares ... no respectable company has only 110M or so shares ... how embarrassing!!! Add 140M and MNKD won't seem so small. And ever at $6 per share ... 140M shares would add $840M to cash. WOW !!! With advertising starting ... I'm sure we'll be above $6 pps soon. As soon as you issue those shares the share price halves so you would need a share price of $12 to raise $840M. Realistically you couldn't do it anyway because the market could not absorb a placement that big so it would tank the share price. My bet is that most of it is intended to be used in installments to settle the Deerfield debts (and maybe the foundation debts). Paid out in chunks of around $10M to $15M the market impact would be relatively linear (the price would only drop by the dilution) and be sold at a reasonable cost. In the end though it gets used and that is dilution.
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Post by mango on Nov 7, 2017 20:19:24 GMT -5
MannKind's debt obligation for 2018 is 20M.
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Post by falconquest on Nov 7, 2017 21:23:33 GMT -5
I thought the call was very positive, lots of great things happening in mnkd land to promote afrezza growth. However I really wish there was more information about why Mannkind wants to double the authorized shares. DOUBLE. Hypothetically Someone could acquire all of these shares via a direct offering and own 50+% of the company. Another thing I found interesting, mike mentioned that international partnering discussions are still happening and near term. It was also listed as the next item on the checklist slide. Finally at the end of the call when questions were finished mike brought up UAE on his own accord, he mentioned that the previous CEO had a deal on the table a regional partner in one middle eastern country however mike is more focused on getting a deal with a bigger regional player that can cover multiple countries, something like all of the Middle East and India. Now bear with me, but that sounds like a much bigger deal , and given mikes projections in previous calls where he showed a map of the world and predicted afrezza to be distributed (or on file) in 50% of the world within a year A partner like that would likely be a big pharma company, and one that would most likely buy into Mannkind or outright acquire it if the partnership was successful. "International partnering discussions are still happening and near term" Hell, International partnering discussions were happening with Hakan and again with Matt. Matt said a deal was close at hand (paraphrasing). Interesting how some things just keep coming up but never seem to happen. And the same line is being used by successive CEO's! Must be a long negotiation cycle.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 7, 2017 21:44:21 GMT -5
I thought the call was very positive, lots of great things happening in mnkd land to promote afrezza growth. However I really wish there was more information about why Mannkind wants to double the authorized shares. DOUBLE. Hypothetically Someone could acquire all of these shares via a direct offering and own 50+% of the company. Another thing I found interesting, mike mentioned that international partnering discussions are still happening and near term. It was also listed as the next item on the checklist slide. Finally at the end of the call when questions were finished mike brought up UAE on his own accord, he mentioned that the previous CEO had a deal on the table a regional partner in one middle eastern country however mike is more focused on getting a deal with a bigger regional player that can cover multiple countries, something like all of the Middle East and India. Now bear with me, but that sounds like a much bigger deal , and given mikes projections in previous calls where he showed a map of the world and predicted afrezza to be distributed (or on file) in 50% of the world within a year A partner like that would likely be a big pharma company, and one that would most likely buy into Mannkind or outright acquire it if the partnership was successful. MNKD seems to be indicating they are not partnering for US other than potentially from a sales perspective for PCP. Brazil is already locked up. The slide itself is missing the huge EU market. Mike just spoke of regional distributor for Middle East and India. All of these things would seem to directly contradict the notion it would be one of the global big pharma companies.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 7, 2017 21:45:40 GMT -5
I thought the call was very positive, lots of great things happening in mnkd land to promote afrezza growth. However I really wish there was more information about why Mannkind wants to double the authorized shares. DOUBLE. Hypothetically Someone could acquire all of these shares via a direct offering and own 50+% of the company. Another thing I found interesting, mike mentioned that international partnering discussions are still happening and near term. It was also listed as the next item on the checklist slide. Finally at the end of the call when questions were finished mike brought up UAE on his own accord, he mentioned that the previous CEO had a deal on the table a regional partner in one middle eastern country however mike is more focused on getting a deal with a bigger regional player that can cover multiple countries, something like all of the Middle East and India. Now bear with me, but that sounds like a much bigger deal , and given mikes projections in previous calls where he showed a map of the world and predicted afrezza to be distributed (or on file) in 50% of the world within a year A partner like that would likely be a big pharma company, and one that would most likely buy into Mannkind or outright acquire it if the partnership was successful. "International partnering discussions are still happening and near term" Hell, International partnering discussions were happening with Hakan and again with Matt. Matt said a deal was close at hand (paraphrasing). Interesting how some things just keep coming up but never seem to happen. And the same line is being used by successive CEO's! Must be a long negotiation cycle. To be fair Brazil did happen. Just that it didn't help finances, didn't really change sentiment too much, and is a long way off from generating revenue.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 7, 2017 21:49:15 GMT -5
As far as the additional shares ... no respectable company has only 110M or so shares ... how embarrassing!!! Add 140M and MNKD won't seem so small. And ever at $6 per share ... 140M shares would add $840M to cash. WOW !!! With advertising starting ... I'm sure we'll be above $6 pps soon. Yes... WOW... if only MNKD were the federal reserve and could simply print as many shares as they wanted and magically they were worth a boundless amount of value without any regard to what backs them.
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