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Post by matt on Nov 8, 2017 9:24:39 GMT -5
All of these things would seem to directly contradict the notion it would be one of the global big pharma companies. Exactly right on that comment. As I have said many times, the global pharma companies either want to control the entire product (globally) or not at all. There have been very few deals where a major player takes on a regional opportunity since the late 1980's. Part of that has been driven by regulatory changes, partly by how the major players have restructured themselves into global strategic business units. At the same time, the number of potential regional partners has declined precipitously as the good ones are acquired and the poor ones go out of business. As for the share increase, it was to be expected. Nothing happens quickly in pharma unless the product is truly novel and has no competition. Afrezza is insulin and that is not a novel drug despite its unique attributes, and the price competition is fierce with two large an well-entrenched players to contend with. The company has to fight a strong headwind, and MNKD is not going to be successful or cash flow positive in the short-term (a year or two). Without an increase in capitalization there will be no long-term; only insolvency. Dilution hurts, but the alternative is much worse for shareholders. Good news and well-timed placements can make the capital increase more palatable, but at the end of the day investors have thousands of public companies to choose from and MNKD has to compete in the financial markets just as it competes in product market, and no company is big enough to dictate financial terms to Wall Street.
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Post by madog365 on Nov 8, 2017 9:32:20 GMT -5
You are anything BUT neutral, and you're not fooling anyone. All opinions (pro and con) are welcomed on ProBoards. silentknight made a call that the market would push share price down in trading hours/days following the CC. So what? I see nothing here to get so defensive about. Just my opinion, of course... There is nothing wrong with being negative or short on MNKD and i respect those that do it while stating their intent, i only have a problem with those that purposefully mislead. He is not neutral on Mannkind and you can't tell me that he's ever been neutral on mannkind. Every post from that account has been negative yet claims that he is a long. I am not the only one that notices this.
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Post by silentknight on Nov 8, 2017 9:37:17 GMT -5
You are anything BUT neutral, and you're not fooling anyone. All opinions (pro and con) are welcomed on ProBoards. silentknight made a call that the market would push share price down in trading hours/days following the CC. So what? I see nothing here to get so defensive about. Just my opinion, of course... Thanks for the response to this. I never would have noticed it had you not responded as he was put on ignore a long time ago. I also ask myself "So what?" a lot with some of the responses generated here. We're looking at a 12% decline in the share price this morning. Guess the truth hurts for a lot of posters here.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 8, 2017 10:56:00 GMT -5
Yes. Either way 140 million would be giving half the company to new investors in order to successfully commercialize Afrezza. One way or the other it shows that the money sunk by existing investors is being written off as not nearly as valuable as most of us would wish it to be. The billions sunk are being admitted to have accomplished only half of the work needed for MNKD to be a success. No that is just freaking ridiculous. How can you say that my money is being written off by the company when they're obviously trying to do whatever they can to make the company profitable. If they had so little concern for me they'd simply file BK and be done with it.
Perhaps another way to look at it, if you're so inclined, would be to say that MNKD is willing to use OPM to make my shares worth more.
Read what I write. I said it is being revealed that they think all the money as yet sunk into MNKD is only roughly half the value of a successful MNKD. And if you view doubling the number of shares as increasing the value, that means you believe that all existing shares are currently worth less than half of a successful MNKD. I don't view that the billions sunk into developing Afrezza are only worth half of it's future success. I think they could have raised more money with less dilution if they'd done it in a way more respectful of their precarious situation. The market will not react well as we are seeing, and now they'll end up having to use more shares because they'll be raising money at prices that are depressed. They probably could have announced 50M share issuance and raised just as much money as for 140M shares because the share price could have regained strength, while now we're going in the opposite direction. As much as I praised Mike for wrangle the $6 capital raise, I think this misstep will more than offset that success. So perhaps looking at it another way... you would have been equally happy or more so if they'd announced issuance of a billion shares... to make yours worth more of course?
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 8, 2017 10:58:31 GMT -5
All opinions (pro and con) are welcomed on ProBoards. silentknight made a call that the market would push share price down in trading hours/days following the CC. So what? I see nothing here to get so defensive about. Just my opinion, of course... Thanks for the response to this. I never would have noticed it had you not responded as he was put on ignore a long time ago. I also ask myself "So what?" a lot with some of the responses generated here. We're looking at a 12% decline in the share price this morning. Guess the truth hurts for a lot of posters here. The only people I know that are hurting are people with short term options. You sound like you hope it hurts...
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Post by silentknight on Nov 8, 2017 11:19:48 GMT -5
Thanks for the response to this. I never would have noticed it had you not responded as he was put on ignore a long time ago. I also ask myself "So what?" a lot with some of the responses generated here. We're looking at a 12% decline in the share price this morning. Guess the truth hurts for a lot of posters here. The only people I know that are hurting are people with short term options. You sound like you hope it hurts... I don't hope for anyone to hurt. Never have. The sad fact of the recent MNKD story is that I predicted the R/S and I predicted the recent dilution. People called me a short for it, accused me of having it out for MNKD, and all other sorts of nasty things, but it never bothered me that much. Semi-anonymous internet posters don't carry that much importance to me. Snarky comments aside from those that have personal grudges against me here, if you're so emotionally invested in a stock that you actively wish for people to lose money, one way or another, long or short, and want to resort to personal attacks, then you should probably seek professional help. Longs make money, shorts make money. That's what makes a market and I don't begrudge anyone for playing it correctly, one way or another. What I hope for, is to recover my losses in MNKD, see the company thrive, and finally provide a positive return on my investment under an appropriate appreciation for existing shareholders that involves minimal dilution. I've always expected dilution because it's realistically been the only way for the company to survive. Prospects for funding, outside of the SNY settlement, have failed to deliver any capital of notable value that can allow the company to go forward. MNKD partnered with BIOMM for Brazil without a penny in return. That should give you an idea on what prospects there are. Dilution, it seems, is for now, the only viable way to keep the company going. That dilution makes your shares, and mine, worth inherently less than they were before, and makes it harder, at least in the short-term, to climb back to being whole again. Is it necessary? Sometimes. Am I supportive of giving MNKD the ability to dilute, if necessary, to the tune of another 140 million shares? Absolutely not. They are likely thinking for the long term and I don't expect them to come out the day after the increase and offer 100 million shares with a secondary offering. But the number of shares they are asking for is excessive to me and to me, runs counter to their comments yesterday that they expect significant sales increases in Afrezza in the coming quarters. They're sending conflicting messages and the market is responding accordingly.
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 8, 2017 11:40:50 GMT -5
silent, I get where you are coming from. And that RS just killed me:-( But at this point I think tinker is right. Let’s just get on with it. They clearly have a plan. I’ve heard hype many times on CC’s. I could name the exact times but nobody cares, and that would only be mean. No hype Mike:-) IMO
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Post by silentknight on Nov 8, 2017 12:55:01 GMT -5
I went ahead and changed my avatar to reflect peace and love for all things and because Slugworth told me to get a haircut. Now that I have hearts in my background, MNKD is clear to start the move upwards. LOL.
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Post by slugworth008 on Nov 8, 2017 13:19:55 GMT -5
I went ahead and changed my avatar to reflect peace and love for all things and because Slugworth told me to get a haircut. Now that I have hearts in my background, MNKD is clear to start the move upwards. LOL. It's a beautiful avatar Silent one- and the hair looks great. Kudos to your beautician and the hearts moving MNKD upward.
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 8, 2017 13:25:21 GMT -5
I went ahead and changed my avatar to reflect peace and love for all things and because Slugworth told me to get a haircut. Now that I have hearts in my background, MNKD is clear to start the move upwards. LOL. Wow, what a heartthrob!
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Post by radgray68 on Nov 8, 2017 15:06:56 GMT -5
I heard $24 Million projected sales next year, based on just the last month's worth of numbers. I also heard they generally use a cost factor of 35% to give us about 65% profit on those sales.
$24M X .65 = $15.6M
Divide that 15.6M by a fully diluted 280 million shares and you get about 5.5 cents a share. Now, I give most companies a P/E factor of 15 off the bat. With approx. 30% growth expected to continue for the next 12-18 months, I would give this fast-growing biotech a 45 P/E for the next year.
45 X .055 = $2.47 a share, not far from our recent low, and that's fully diluted. Right now, we have 115M outstanding so 13.5 cents x 45 = $6.07, ironically, where the recent placement was set. Thoughts?
Safe to say, I'm not worried about the additional shares.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 8, 2017 17:20:14 GMT -5
I heard $24 Million projected sales next year, based on just the last month's worth of numbers. I also heard they generally use a cost factor of 35% to give us about 65% profit on those sales. $24M X .65 = $15.6M Divide that 15.6M by a fully diluted 280 million shares and you get about 5.5 cents a share. Now, I give most companies a P/E factor of 15 off the bat. With approx. 30% growth expected to continue for the next 12-18 months, I would give this fast-growing biotech a 45 P/E for the next year. 45 X .055 = $2.47 a share, not far from our recent low, and that's fully diluted. Right now, we have 115M outstanding so 13.5 cents x 45 = $6.07, ironically, where the recent placement was set. Thoughts? Safe to say, I'm not worried about the additional shares. You're calc is way off... $24M sales is far, far off from any profit. Our expenses are over $80M a year and increasing with advertising.
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Post by radgray68 on Nov 8, 2017 17:49:06 GMT -5
I heard $24 Million projected sales next year, based on just the last month's worth of numbers. I also heard they generally use a cost factor of 35% to give us about 65% profit on those sales. $24M X .65 = $15.6M Divide that 15.6M by a fully diluted 280 million shares and you get about 5.5 cents a share. Now, I give most companies a P/E factor of 15 off the bat. With approx. 30% growth expected to continue for the next 12-18 months, I would give this fast-growing biotech a 45 P/E for the next year. 45 X .055 = $2.47 a share, not far from our recent low, and that's fully diluted. Right now, we have 115M outstanding so 13.5 cents x 45 = $6.07, ironically, where the recent placement was set. Thoughts? Safe to say, I'm not worried about the additional shares. You're calc is way off... $24M sales is far, far off from any profit. Our expenses are over $80M a year and increasing with advertising. I know it's not as simple as that for a thorough pps estimate. These are just back of the napkin figures to get a rough idea of EBITDA without the complications of debt and advertising. Fully dilu The debt can go away pretty quickly once converted. It is my sincere belief that the actual sales will be much more that that $24 Million figure due to a successful advertising campaign causing exponential sales growth. As for taxes.....well.....the IRS can stuff it for a while because we have $2 Billion to recoup. If an additional 140 million shares is needed, so be it. Guess I just wanted to justify my purchase this morning at $2.81.
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 8, 2017 19:04:56 GMT -5
radgray, throw that napkin away! Pretty sure that 65% is top line, so lots to subtract from that figure. On the positive side, "fully diluted" does NOT count authorized shares at all.
It counts shares subject to options (company issued, not stock market created) and warrants.
Authorized shares is a NON-ISSUE (especially compared to our actual issues), people are interpreting that all wrong. Like I was all wrong about the future of the stock price once the Sanofi deal got done. Very, very wrong.
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 8, 2017 19:21:56 GMT -5
No that is just freaking ridiculous. How can you say that my money is being written off by the company when they're obviously trying to do whatever they can to make the company profitable. If they had so little concern for me they'd simply file BK and be done with it.
Perhaps another way to look at it, if you're so inclined, would be to say that MNKD is willing to use OPM to make my shares worth more.
Read what I write. I said it is being revealed that they think all the money as yet sunk into MNKD is only roughly half the value of a successful MNKD. And if you view doubling the number of shares as increasing the value, that means you believe that all existing shares are currently worth less than half of a successful MNKD. I don't view that the billions sunk into developing Afrezza are only worth half of it's future success. I think they could have raised more money with less dilution if they'd done it in a way more respectful of their precarious situation. The market will not react well as we are seeing, and now they'll end up having to use more shares because they'll be raising money at prices that are depressed. They probably could have announced 50M share issuance and raised just as much money as for 140M shares because the share price could have regained strength, while now we're going in the opposite direction. As much as I praised Mike for wrangle the $6 capital raise, I think this misstep will more than offset that success. So perhaps looking at it another way... you would have been equally happy or more so if they'd announced issuance of a billion shares... to make yours worth more of course? DBC, you continue to post from a place that is, I don't know, I'll say incorrect. Let's see, we gave away 65% of Afrezza revenues when we did the deal with Sanofi. Not sure that the rest of the company, including technosphere is valued at all that much currently. So for half the company, it we could get commercial success, well, I'm far from ready to diss that sort of deal. What's the difference how many billions were sunk into the company for developing Afrezza, no one cares about that. The market and potential partners/investors only care what the value and prospects of this company are now! MNKD has spend billions, so? We've got something we think is great, but not enough people agree with that for now. The market is not going to take our word for it. Then you say, "I think they could have raised more money with less dilution if they'd done it in a way more respectful of their precarious situation." Huh, explanation of that please? Gosh, they raised money at 6 bucks!!!! Someone was disrespected, that's for sure. (Ha, you know I don't believe that, those buyers sold short beforehand, but just in case they didn't.)
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