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Post by mnholdem on Nov 7, 2017 22:57:01 GMT -5
Dream, how would you propose they get more cash? Or did you expect the 57 million to sustain them until Afrezza become cash positive? Doubling the number of shares is kinda shocking. Mike has previously hinted that they'd work on non dilutive means. Now we've had one dilution and this indicating a real possibility of huge amount of dilution before we get to break even. It may be necessary, but announcing this much and with very, very little discussion... I think it was a misstep. The prudent investor is now going to be dividing whatever market cap they feel MNKD can eventually reach on Afrezza by 280 million to get share price and then discounting for time and risk. I'd propose he rob a bank. If he's good enough he won't get caught and it really is non dilutive. Oh, and I really had hoped that they would have sold into the strength using the ATM... but too late to propose that. Have you considered what 140 million shares could mean for the company when the share price goes into double-digit territory? Regional DTC ads are expensive as it is, but increased cash balance would fund both a national campaign and power up the TS pipeline. Lots of things coming together and it sounds to me like the CEO and BoD are thinking of longer term strategic interests for the company and shareholders.
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Post by kc on Nov 7, 2017 23:04:55 GMT -5
I thought the call was very positive, lots of great things happening in mnkd land to promote afrezza growth. However I really wish there was more information about why Mannkind wants to double the authorized shares. DOUBLE. Hypothetically Someone could acquire all of these shares via a direct offering and own 50+% of the company. Another thing I found interesting, mike mentioned that international partnering discussions are still happening and near term. It was also listed as the next item on the checklist slide. Finally at the end of the call when questions were finished mike brought up UAE on his own accord, he mentioned that the previous CEO had a deal on the table a regional partner in one middle eastern country however mike is more focused on getting a deal with a bigger regional player that can cover multiple countries, something like all of the Middle East and India. Now bear with me, but that sounds like a much bigger deal , and given mikes projections in previous calls where he showed a map of the world and predicted afrezza to be distributed (or on file) in 50% of the world within a year A partner like that would likely be a big pharma company, and one that would most likely buy into Mannkind or outright acquire it if the partnership was successful. Exactly what might be happening here. They know of a potential transaction they could happen to make it acquisition at a fair market price, having treasury shares available would make that a good transaction for the company if the opportunity presented itself to make a friendly deal. The company needs equity and this would not be selling the company selling out, but allowing somebody to purchase upto a 50% interest with treasury shares.
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Post by straightly on Nov 8, 2017 0:21:04 GMT -5
Clear indicator of further dilution on the way. Pair that with the huge miss with guidance and I’m betting the stock falls like a rock tomorrow. Will it be dilution if MNKD manage to sell more shares at $6?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 8, 2017 0:40:54 GMT -5
Doubling the number of shares is kinda shocking. Mike has previously hinted that they'd work on non dilutive means. Now we've had one dilution and this indicating a real possibility of huge amount of dilution before we get to break even. It may be necessary, but announcing this much and with very, very little discussion... I think it was a misstep. The prudent investor is now going to be dividing whatever market cap they feel MNKD can eventually reach on Afrezza by 280 million to get share price and then discounting for time and risk. I'd propose he rob a bank. If he's good enough he won't get caught and it really is non dilutive. Oh, and I really had hoped that they would have sold into the strength using the ATM... but too late to propose that. Have you considered what 140 million shares could mean for the company when the share price goes into double-digit territory? Regional DTC ads are expensive as it is, but increased cash balance would fund both a national campaign and power up the TS pipeline. Lots of things coming together and it sounds to me like the CEO and BoD are thinking of longer term strategic interests for the company and shareholders. I can also imagine what 140 million shares could mean if the stock crashes back to sub $1. I'll be thrilled if the share price goes double-digit with the overhang of 50% dilution, but I'm guessing that isn't going to be what happens. $10 at this point would basically mean a time discounted fully diluted market cap of $2.8 billion. 140 million shares to me means that management feels they will have to give away half the company in order to make it to profitability.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 8, 2017 0:46:28 GMT -5
Clear indicator of further dilution on the way. Pair that with the huge miss with guidance and I’m betting the stock falls like a rock tomorrow. Will it be dilution if MNKD manage to sell more shares at $6? Yes. Either way 140 million would be giving half the company to new investors in order to successfully commercialize Afrezza. One way or the other it shows that the money sunk by existing investors is being written off as not nearly as valuable as most of us would wish it to be. The billions sunk are being admitted to have accomplished only half of the work needed for MNKD to be a success.
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Post by silentknight on Nov 8, 2017 7:23:48 GMT -5
Clear indicator of further dilution on the way. Pair that with the huge miss with guidance and I’m betting the stock falls like a rock tomorrow. AH yes, the silent one re-emerges with glee and optimism. You should trim your beard and chill - IMO If you want glee and optimism, there are several people on this board to can accommodate you. I call it like I see it and have been pretty neutral in my assessment of the company and in particular, their quarterly calls. After market action saw as much as an almost 9% decline. Sadly, I'm betting that continues today. There were some positive takeaways from the call yesterday, and I think they have a strategy. Sales have increased, but they're still laughably low for a product that has been on the market 3 years. The label change might help with that, but reporting double digit increases in scripts doesn't mean much when you're talking about numbers as low as MNKD's weekly scripts and I think most analysts and hedge funds know that. There were good things they reported, but there was also a lot of spin yesterday. I'll credit them for being able to spin it better than Hakan or Matt could, but it's still spin. Could the numbers compound and take off? Sure. But the prospects of MNKD diluting existing shareholders as the only viable way to routinely pay down debt and fund company operations will likely not not serve the company well. I would have much preferred to see an increase in shares to the tune of 40-50 million. Numbers mean a lot in business. To me, asking for a 100% increase in the number of shares available to the company to use indicates they don't see many prospects on the long-term horizon for other ways to raise funds.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 8, 2017 8:39:44 GMT -5
MannKind's debt obligation for 2018 is 20M. I am talking about their debt obligation, not just the 2018 part. It is fairly clear that there is a pattern established from the last two payments where Deerfield converts debt into equity. What Mannkind have done is create all the shares they are going to need for that entire debt as well as Mannkind Foundation.
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Post by madog365 on Nov 8, 2017 8:52:21 GMT -5
AH yes, the silent one re-emerges with glee and optimism. You should trim your beard and chill - IMO If you want glee and optimism, there are several people on this board to can accommodate you. I call it like I see it and have been pretty neutral in my assessment of the company and in particular, their quarterly calls. After market action saw as much as an almost 9% decline. Sadly, I'm betting that continues today. There were some positive takeaways from the call yesterday, and I think they have a strategy. Sales have increased, but they're still laughably low for a product that has been on the market 3 years. The label change might help with that, but reporting double digit increases in scripts doesn't mean much when you're talking about numbers as low as MNKD's weekly scripts and I think most analysts and hedge funds know that. There were good things they reported, but there was also a lot of spin yesterday. I'll credit them for being able to spin it better than Hakan or Matt could, but it's still spin. Could the numbers compound and take off? Sure. But the prospects of MNKD diluting existing shareholders as the only viable way to routinely pay down debt and fund company operations will likely not not serve the company well. I would have much preferred to see an increase in shares to the tune of 40-50 million. Numbers mean a lot in business. To me, asking for a 100% increase in the number of shares available to the company to use indicates they don't see many prospects on the long-term horizon for other ways to raise funds. You are anything BUT neutral, and you're not fooling anyone.
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Post by mnkdfann on Nov 8, 2017 8:53:15 GMT -5
Finally at the end of the call when questions were finished mike brought up UAE on his own accord, he mentioned that the previous CEO had a deal on the table a regional partner in one middle eastern country however mike is more focused on getting a deal with a bigger regional player that can cover multiple countries, something like all of the Middle East and India. Why would MNKD walk away from a deal on the table. I know what they said, but it doesn't make sense to me. Sign the deal, get some sales and traction, use that success to attract a bigger player with whom to do a deal for the remainder of the region. What kind of signal does it send to prospective regional partners for MNKD to negotiate a deal then walk away from it.
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Post by mango on Nov 8, 2017 8:58:20 GMT -5
Finally at the end of the call when questions were finished mike brought up UAE on his own accord, he mentioned that the previous CEO had a deal on the table a regional partner in one middle eastern country however mike is more focused on getting a deal with a bigger regional player that can cover multiple countries, something like all of the Middle East and India. Why would MNKD walk away from a deal on the table. I know what they said, but it doesn't make sense to me. Sign the deal, get some sales and traction, use that success to attract a bigger player with whom to do a deal for the remainder of the region. What kind of signal does it send to prospective regional partners for MNKD to negotiate a deal then walk away from it. If it was a crap company, a corrupt company, or not the right company, then the signal received by potential regional partners would be, "smart move."
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Post by rombic33 on Nov 8, 2017 8:58:22 GMT -5
We don't know if it was a low payment or very low?
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Post by cjc04 on Nov 8, 2017 9:02:45 GMT -5
AH yes, the silent one re-emerges with glee and optimism. You should trim your beard and chill - IMO If you want glee and optimism, there are several people on this board to can accommodate you. I call it like I see it and have been pretty neutral in my assessment of the company and in particular, their quarterly calls. After market action saw as much as an almost 9% decline. Sadly, I'm betting that continues today. There were some positive takeaways from the call yesterday, and I think they have a strategy. Sales have increased, but they're still laughably low for a product that has been on the market 3 years. The label change might help with that, but reporting double digit increases in scripts doesn't mean much when you're talking about numbers as low as MNKD's weekly scripts and I think most analysts and hedge funds know that. There were good things they reported, but there was also a lot of spin yesterday. I'll credit them for being able to spin it better than Hakan or Matt could, but it's still spin. Could the numbers compound and take off? Sure. But the prospects of MNKD diluting existing shareholders as the only viable way to routinely pay down debt and fund company operations will likely not not serve the company well. I would have much preferred to see an increase in shares to the tune of 40-50 million. Numbers mean a lot in business. To me, asking for a 100% increase in the number of shares available to the company to use indicates they don't see many prospects on the long-term horizon for other ways to raise funds. i am NOT happy to be saying it, but it was hard for me to hear much of anything BUT spin yesterday... 45 minutes of “we’re working on selling Afrezza”... oh, you are??? Wow! Partnerships??? We’re working on it RLS??? Coming soon Other Technosphere opportunities?? Nope I’m happy with the work on improving the financial picture, and it shows support from Deerfield and the mystery $6 buyers (even though I’m sure they haven’t lost a dime due to their ability to short the shares) but it now all feels like a pump & dump to get them 6 more months of burn cash. I’m happy to finally see some real dtc marketing, but based on everything we heard yesterday... they basically said we’ve raised enough cash to get thru mid 2018 but we’re going to spend it NOW on advertising,,, and then never said how we'll get thru 2018, stay tuned. My take away, all they told us is that our survival still depends on Afrezza sales, on our own, and fast... Oh, and we need another 140mil shares. Sorry to be a downer,,, but i actually thought things were different now.
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Post by madog365 on Nov 8, 2017 9:08:38 GMT -5
Finally at the end of the call when questions were finished mike brought up UAE on his own accord, he mentioned that the previous CEO had a deal on the table a regional partner in one middle eastern country however mike is more focused on getting a deal with a bigger regional player that can cover multiple countries, something like all of the Middle East and India. Why would MNKD walk away from a deal on the table. I know what they said, but it doesn't make sense to me. Sign the deal, get some sales and traction, use that success to attract a bigger player with whom to do a deal for the remainder of the region. What kind of signal does it send to prospective regional partners for MNKD to negotiate a deal then walk away from it. The question you ask is a good question with no answer (that we know). My thought is Mike and Matt have simply have different strategies. Matt who likely orchestrated the BIOMM deal in one of his last moves as CEO was focused on getting small regional partners, and may have had a similar type deal in another country outside of Brazil. As evidenced by the BIOMM deal it does little to move to the needle in the short term since there is no upfront payment, and no strategic investment by the company into the partnership. Mike outlined a very bold plan which projected Afrezza on file within 50% of the world in the next year. I just don't see how they could accomplish that without signing a larger deal with one or few big pharma companies that play in these geos.
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Post by dh4mizzou on Nov 8, 2017 9:09:18 GMT -5
Will it be dilution if MNKD manage to sell more shares at $6? Yes. Either way 140 million would be giving half the company to new investors in order to successfully commercialize Afrezza. One way or the other it shows that the money sunk by existing investors is being written off as not nearly as valuable as most of us would wish it to be. The billions sunk are being admitted to have accomplished only half of the work needed for MNKD to be a success. No that is just freaking ridiculous. How can you say that my money is being written off by the company when they're obviously trying to do whatever they can to make the company profitable. If they had so little concern for me they'd simply file BK and be done with it.
Perhaps another way to look at it, if you're so inclined, would be to say that MNKD is willing to use OPM to make my shares worth more.
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 8, 2017 9:20:38 GMT -5
If you want glee and optimism, there are several people on this board to can accommodate you. I call it like I see it and have been pretty neutral in my assessment of the company and in particular, their quarterly calls. After market action saw as much as an almost 9% decline. Sadly, I'm betting that continues today. There were some positive takeaways from the call yesterday, and I think they have a strategy. Sales have increased, but they're still laughably low for a product that has been on the market 3 years. The label change might help with that, but reporting double digit increases in scripts doesn't mean much when you're talking about numbers as low as MNKD's weekly scripts and I think most analysts and hedge funds know that. There were good things they reported, but there was also a lot of spin yesterday. I'll credit them for being able to spin it better than Hakan or Matt could, but it's still spin. Could the numbers compound and take off? Sure. But the prospects of MNKD diluting existing shareholders as the only viable way to routinely pay down debt and fund company operations will likely not not serve the company well. I would have much preferred to see an increase in shares to the tune of 40-50 million. Numbers mean a lot in business. To me, asking for a 100% increase in the number of shares available to the company to use indicates they don't see many prospects on the long-term horizon for other ways to raise funds. You are anything BUT neutral, and you're not fooling anyone. All opinions (pro and con) are welcomed on ProBoards. silentknight made a call that the market would push share price down in trading hours/days following the CC. So what? I see nothing here to get so defensive about. Just my opinion, of course...
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