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Post by slushy on Jun 18, 2014 19:14:50 GMT -5
Tanner - Thanks for the praise, and I was referring less to the CRLs (which is far in the past) and more to the recent trial results, adcom doc releases, adcom, etc... The stock runs up on speculation and sells off on the news. Generally, as I stated above, this is because we're an optimistic bunch and the news isn't quite what we wanted it to be. The trial results are a perfect example as it ran up hard pre-announcement, the results came out and were weaker than we wanted, and it sold off hard... but obviously it was good enough to get adcom approval. And yes, I agree that the partnership will be a great boost. The only difference I have than you is I believe there will be a lull between the FDA approval and the partnership announcement. And to help drive the stock price down during that lull, I believe the FDA will come out with a not-positive label that guys like AF will use to push their bear agenda and drive the price down.
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Post by spiro on Jun 18, 2014 19:19:17 GMT -5
Slushy, after consulting a couple of other handicappers, I am sorry to inform you, that you have been downgraded to the Howling Coyote class. It looks like you may get some formidable competition in that class also.
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Post by tanner1212 on Jun 18, 2014 19:39:08 GMT -5
Slushy,
I would suggests you listen to Matt Pfeffer's latest comments after the Wells Fargo Conference (available on the MNKD website for replay). The problem with waiting until after FDA approval for the partnership is that it could literally be timed with the news, a day after, or a week after. They will halt the stock, declare a partnership announcements (i.e. NVO acquiring a 20% stake in MNKD for $ [insert $ value here] with such and such arrangements as an example***) and you find the stock at $20+ after it resumes trading.
This one seems EXTREMELY tough to trade. There are also 60+ million shorts and they are not fully hedged (just view the option chain). I wish I knew what was going to happen.
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Post by BD on Jun 18, 2014 19:47:19 GMT -5
Spiro - I have no intention of being the Alpha Wolf, very content in my role as the Lone Wolf, or for those Game of Throne fans, the Young Wolf. At least you're not the Boy Who Cried Wolf  |
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Post by alcc on Jun 18, 2014 19:56:47 GMT -5
If you had no stake in the company right now, what would you price it at? Considering all the known variables and weighing all the outcomes, where would you put the stock price? I'd put it in the $8 range. In that case, you should be short. Known variables and outcomes are not only priced in, they have been overpriced in. And why would having a stake or not make any difference where I would price a stock? I am long because I believe in the company and in the long run I expect the stock to be higher than where it is now. I don't care where it is now and I certainly don't know where it will be next week. The street, web, TV are full of people who think they know what a stock will or should do. Yeah, right. I have never heard Warren Buffet or Peter Lynch or John Bogle or John Templeton say that. |
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Post by ezrasfund on Jun 18, 2014 20:01:21 GMT -5
Extremely tough to trade, especially for the short side. IMO the short side traders got burned when they crashed the share price on the negative tone of the briefing documents before Adcom. They woke up after the trading halt owing more money, not less, and have been licking their wounds ever since. Things got tighter on the run to $10, but the relative lack of volatility and volume of late seems to say that without news or at least psuedo-news as a cover their won't be another bear raid soon. Another AF article just is'nt going to be enough cover. And there is probably too much money on the sidelines waiting to buy the dip.
As for partnership timing, my old saw said that there would be no partner before approval, and also says that, as Matt has indicated, it may take a while after approval to sign the partnership. My limited experience says beware of call options with near term expiration dates that are not deep in the money. If your bus is one minute late it will probably be here soon, but if you've been waiting for a hour it might be a while longer.
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Post by slushy on Jun 18, 2014 23:50:32 GMT -5
alcc - I'm long because I believe in the product and the company. I'm not shorting because I intend to sell my shares to protect my profits, not to expose myself further. I'm not really sure your point of contention with me other than I'm intending to sell my position and buy back in post-FDA approval and you don't seem to believe in short term plays (though to be honest I'm not really sure what your "long term" concept is either). In my opinion, the most likely event to drive the stock up or down is the labeling, and I see more reasons the FDA would come down with a negative leaning label then they would with one more in our favor... but if you disagree please share as I'm very interested to hear a well thought out opinion as to why the label would be to our benefit.
tanner - I have listened, and those were comments that were stated after they slipped and said it would be 6-8 weeks away. I believe the 6-8 weeks is the more accurate of the admissions as it seems much more likely that it will take more than a week to hash out the terms and legality of a large partnership based on a drug that may have blockbuster potential.
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Post by trenddiver on Jun 19, 2014 0:07:43 GMT -5
For me, there is only one binary that will determine the ultimate highest price for the stock. And that event is when Big Al sells his shares. All forecasts and predictions about what will happen to the share price at binary events such as approval, partnership are nothing but speculative opinions, which should only be acted upon by sophisticated traders like Baba and others.
For the rest of us, I say trust Big Al. He'll let us know when to sell. Al didn't accumulate his wealth by selling too soon. As Big Al said at the Annual Meeting, decisions regarding selling will be made on what is best for "patients and shareholders." So I'll be riding Big Al all the way to the finish line (whenever that occurs).
Trend
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Post by mattm on Jun 19, 2014 0:09:38 GMT -5
"I'm intending to sell my position and buy back in post-FDA approval"
slushy,
I'm curious to know what your decision as to when to sell, if you don't mind me picking your brain. Are you waiting for another price movement up or down before July 15th, or if it is stagnant, settle on a date prior to July 15th?
Thanks.
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Post by slushy on Jun 19, 2014 0:34:04 GMT -5
mattm - I'm hoping to get as close to FDA approval as possible as long as I see the price stay roughly $10.50+. If it looks like the momentum is shifting down, I'll take my profits and sit out until post-FDA. I think there may be one last jump, but I make no illusions as to being able to predict short term movements to that degree. I only know enough TA to get me into trouble. My primary move here is to protect the profits I've made because I believe the FDA will find some way to screw us on the labeling. If I'm wrong and the stock gaps up, then great for all involved and I will have gladly paid a small premium to protect what I've made thus far. To me, the downside is too large to risk on an event so politically motivated.
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 19, 2014 1:09:30 GMT -5
Great discussion on this thread, ladies and gentlemen!!
One thing I do know, if Little Red Riding Hood were as adept at spotting wolves as Spiro, we would never had heard of that fairy tale!!
"should only be acted upon by sophisticated traders like Baba" Gosh, Trend, I love it when you talk like that! On the other hand when I try to visualize your "riding Big Al all the way to the finish line," I get a real bad feeling, Al is 88 and you're a fairly big guy, and I just don't know...
Trading this one over the next few weeks is a tough one. I certainly hear Slushy loud and clear, he makes similar points to ones I've embraced over time. And because I feel that way, I probably have been doing things the rest of you would not endorse. But we all play things the way we think best, once we factor in our own emotions, risk tolerance, etc.
This one's going down to a showdown at the OK Corral, Spiro and his gunslingers like rak and ashiwi, versus Slushy, myself and others. I'm going to want to just film the whole thing, plenty of drama and blood! Perhaps a "short" documentary winner!
LA's the place - Kings win Cup and Kershaw gets his first no-hitter tonight! And there is a capital "K" in MannKind!
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 19, 2014 1:12:04 GMT -5
mattm - I'm hoping to get as close to FDA approval as possible as long as I see the price stay roughly $10.50+. If it looks like the momentum is shifting down, I'll take my profits and sit out until post-FDA. I think there may be one last jump, but I make no illusions as to being able to predict short term movements to that degree. I only know enough TA to get me into trouble. My primary move here is to protect the profits I've made because I believe the FDA will find some way to screw us on the labeling. If I'm wrong and the stock gaps up, then great for all involved and I will have gladly paid a small premium to protect what I've made thus far. To me, the downside is too large to risk on an event so politically motivated. Slushy, if I were you, I wouldn't wait too much longer, the FDA decision could easily be early. Given the strategy you carefully lay out, I think you need to jump on things at least before the end of this month if not sooner. But, there are certainly many more that will cover between now and the decision. |
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Post by slushy on Jun 19, 2014 1:27:57 GMT -5
Ideally I can catch one last spike up and jump out, but most likely I'll be out by EOM regardless if not sooner.
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Post by rockyp on Jun 19, 2014 2:06:03 GMT -5
While I would agree that some percentage of FDA approval has been baked into the price, I think it is far from 100%. The fact that folks are worried about "getting screwed by the FDA" is evidence that the uncertainty out there is driving people's decisions. I know I would sleep easier if Afrezza had FDA approval right now, so once the approval comes, a share of stock will be worth more to me than it is today. More importantly, that share of stock will be worth more to a lot of folks who are less risk-tolerant than the people who are currently investing (speculating?) in MNKD. I think a lot of people who are currently on the sidelines will jump in upon FDA approval. Also, a lot of the short position that is being held as a hedge will be closed out, further driving demand for shares. (Some of the short hedge may be kept post-approval as a hedge against lack of a partnership, but I think the greater perceived risk is with the FDA.) Based on the pent up demand from the fear of FDA rejection, I think there will be a nice spike upon approval.
That being said, once that post-approval run comes, I think there will be some profit taking, and eventually supply will outweigh demand which will result in a dip that a trader might want to play. However, since everybody is going to want to be on board when the partnership is announced and no one knows exactly when that will come, I think the dip will be limited in size and duration, so if you are planning to play that dip I would get out and quickly get back in.
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Post by stevedc34 on Jun 19, 2014 6:28:28 GMT -5
Great forum. Thanks for letting me join.
Slushy, your strategy is well formulated and seems to mitigate downside risk. Being a hybrid/trader I imagine you are very adept at creating positive cash flow for yourself in any situation. The trend of this stock has been to sell the news, however that only works until it doesn't work. For me, the time to limit risk was prior to Adcom. Smart money has entered this stock since then(break of 8.07), in my opinion due to the minimal risk remaining. By my calculations (worthless), one more pop before a pullback. Good or bad label who knows. Either way it will get spun negatively by some to create panic so traders can trade. Nothing wrong with making money. This will be short lived then we will be making our way to much higher highs.
There will be some ups and downs in the near future. Thats the game. For some its a traders dream. I have been long MNKD and intend to remain long until either my majority tax percentage goes long or we are confronted with an SP I can't refuse. Hats off to you successful hybrid/traders who can actually pull it off. The only thing harder than knowing when to sell is knowing when to buy back in or having the courage to do so. Depending on your gains, this could prove to be challenging. Really, if we can all agree on anything it should be paying uncle sam...stinks. Good luck to all of you.
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