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Post by babaoriley on Jun 20, 2014 17:30:48 GMT -5
"i guess i admittedly have a weak hand. with a 5x gain you must have gotten in around 2 so it must not have been that hard to hold through adcom being well into the black for you. my cost basis was around 6.50ish and somehwere just under $400k invested with almost no other investments (cost basis so high due to very aggressive puts around last crl and some missed ops around 2, and i'm not including my options premiums in that cost which some would disagree with). i was totally rolling the dice over 4 years and i was fine with that."
Oh, c'mon, Doc, grow a pair! At least you admit to a weak hand. Two, three months working ER and you've got that covered! I recognize the fishing gear as Brioni - I didn't just fall of the turnip truck in Bako! I mean, here I thought you had some real money at risk, I'm surprised that's a large enough stake to even get you looking at the share price week to week, much less this message board.
If you do great on MNKD, perhaps you and I can really go elephant hunting with something in the seven figure neighborhood, then we'll make some serious money!
BTW, never knew that stuff about all the water weed wastes! Thirsty little sucker!
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Post by chmith27 on Jun 20, 2014 19:45:33 GMT -5
"i guess i admittedly have a weak hand. with a 5x gain you must have gotten in around 2 so it must not have been that hard to hold through adcom being well into the black for you. my cost basis was around 6.50ish and somehwere just under $400k invested with almost no other investments (cost basis so high due to very aggressive puts around last crl and some missed ops around 2, and i'm not including my options premiums in that cost which some would disagree with). i was totally rolling the dice over 4 years and i was fine with that." Oh, c'mon, Doc, grow a pair! At least you admit to a weak hand. Two, three months working ER and you've got that covered! I recognize the fishing gear as Brioni - I didn't just fall of the turnip truck in Bako! I mean, here I thought you had some real money at risk, I'm surprised that's a large enough stake to even get you looking at the share price week to week, much less this message board. If you do great on MNKD, perhaps you and I can really go elephant hunting with something in the seven figure neighborhood, then we'll make some serious money! BTW, never knew that stuff about all the water weed wastes! Thirsty little sucker! haha i make a great hourly wage but am rarely at work  |
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Post by Chris on Jun 20, 2014 19:55:48 GMT -5
I didn't use 5 days of lunch money, comic book money and I even passed up the icecream truck to buy 2 shares of MNKD. I didn't sell before the adcom. Do I have weak hands?
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Post by jpg on Jun 20, 2014 23:19:09 GMT -5
jpg it's good you reminded me that these were not mu receptor antagonists, although i can't remember what they were exactly.
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As far as I know they never said what receptors were targeted other then saying it was a novel pathway that did not use traditional narcotics pathways. The medication is a peptide so that in itself is very unusual and obviously from a completely different class.
Imagine if they really could come up with a powerful ultra fast non injectable analgesic without respiratory depression, without physical or psychological dependance and without any tachyphylaxis? Now that would be a major paradigm shift bigger then Afrezza. If (we are very early in this undertakijg) this new inhaled peptide really worked as well as they seem to suggest it might:; this could dramatically alter the medical landscape of acute and chronic pain management.
JPG
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Post by milachka63 on Jun 22, 2014 5:33:39 GMT -5
Not sure if this was already addressed, but I just had a look at the RBC analysis and they anticipate these Afrezza royalties in the US and in Europe (millions):
2015 9.3
2016 30.3
2017 61.6 14.0
2018 115.3 33.9
2019 170.9 67.9
2020 310.0 125.3
2021 357.6 183.0
2022 406.8 327.2
2023 457.6 371.8
Seems like a really slow ramp up to me. I'd expect sales to be better in the early years. Opinions?
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Post by Chris on Jun 22, 2014 8:43:04 GMT -5
Not sure if this was already addressed, but I just had a look at the RBC analysis and they anticipate these Afrezza royalties in the US and in Europe (millions): 2015 9.3 2016 30.3 2017 61.6 14.0 2018 115.3 33.9 2019 170.9 67.9 2020 310.0 125.3 2021 357.6 183.0 2022 406.8 327.2 2023 457.6 371.8 Seems like a really slow ramp up to me. I'd expect sales to be better in the early years. Opinions? Until Afrezza receives FDA approval with the clearly defined and stated labels and more than likely requested post clinical safety trials, IMO it's a bit of a fools game to forecast sales - it's a multivariable and complex scenario contingent upon currently unknown information that can only be assumed. Having a slow sales expectation during the early parts of Afrezza's introduction is most ideal in a prediction such as the one aforementioned by you above. Every product has a business life cycle and must first be adopted by early users. A product's success is never ever usually instantaneous; despite Afrezza being a novel and potentially block buster product many hurdles must be overcame. Marketing and advertising should not be overlooked despite having a great product the fruition of Afrezza's success may never be realized without proper product management. This is why IMO, a partnership is essential especially given the cash position of MNKD and already inflated OS count in comparison to 5 years prior. Market penetration should be interesting to follow in the coming quarters of MNKD... I'm curious to see if they shall apply for EU approval as mentioned in the past to increase their market size...also note it's not just the users of Afrezza that will effect it's market adaption rate but also medical personnel who might be hesitant to prescribe an alternative drug when an existing one exists and works for the patient. Excuse any grammatical mistakes: on my phone... Cheers! |
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 22, 2014 11:07:28 GMT -5
Hey, Chris,
Assuming approval and a reasonable label, I think the only real problem facing MNKD and partner(s) will be keeping up with the demand in early years. Think about it: there are thousands of drugs out there, which most of us have never heard of. That's not going to be Afrezza. Afrezza will be more like Celebrex, Lipitor, and Viagra; we will see multi-media advertising, including TV, and after a few months of that, word of mouth will do it. Imagine the pressure by patients on their doctors saying they want to try Afrezza.
This is not a drug where 1,000,000 or so people are the targeted users, or where there are other, competing drugs or treatments of the same class. This one is different with a currently huge and quickly growing market and success with the FDA in the next three weeks or so is going to unlock it all. (God help me, I'm sounding like Spiro, but read the next paragraph.)
I can only see two things derailing Afrezza (again, assuming approval and a fair label): first, a better, not too much more expensive treatment is discovered and second, adverse effects are reported among patients, and the effects I worry about are effects resulting from long term usage. Neither of those two things, if they happen, should happen anytime soon. I am hopeful of a buyout within a year or so, thus taking us out of that risk.
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Post by spiro on Jun 22, 2014 11:27:03 GMT -5
Wow Baba, I didn't know Californians started drinking so early. With a post like that, you have now become the newest raging bull on this board. I would like to add a 3rd possible derailing factor and the most plausible one, that would be incompetent management. OMG, now I am sounding like OPC.
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Post by Chris on Jun 22, 2014 11:53:53 GMT -5
I share in your optimism Baba, this is why I'm heavily invested in MNKD but I'm a bit more reserved and believe we may not see substantial profits till 4+ quarters out though I'm hoping for the scenario you have mentioned. Fortunately the COGS due to the insulin purchased at such a low bulk price, award winning in house manufacturing facility where additional arms can be added - puts MNKD in an interesting position.
I can't wait less than 30 days now...
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Post by milachka63 on Jun 23, 2014 2:43:18 GMT -5
I share in your optimism Baba, this is why I'm heavily invested in MNKD but I'm a bit more reserved and believe we may not see substantial profits till 4+ quarters out though I'm hoping for the scenario you have mentioned. The RBC report only sees profits as of 2018. So I guess you also tend to believe the ramp up will be faster? |
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 23, 2014 9:54:36 GMT -5
I don't have any kind of handle of when profits might start. I'm thinking sales are going to ramp up pretty fast. But, heck, if they are able to negotiate a signing bonus with their partner, they may have a profit almost immediately, albeit non-recurring.
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Post by mannmade on Jun 23, 2014 10:51:32 GMT -5
Reproting of profits will likely depend on a few things such as what system of accounting (accrual vs cash) and how they create their tax strategy with accred losses. Unofficial reporting may happen if they choose to issue press releases on any significant orders that have been received in advance of actual financial reporting and then all of the accountants on the message boards can do the math for them. Seems to me that this period of time will be among the happier moments for the longs after all this time...
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Post by mdcenter61 on Jun 23, 2014 12:46:18 GMT -5
Reproting of profits will likely depend on a few things such as what system of accounting (accrual vs cash) and how they create their tax strategy with accred losses. Unofficial reporting may happen if they choose to issue press releases on any significant orders that have been received in advance of actual financial reporting and then all of the accountants on the message boards can do the math for them. Seems to me that this period of time will be among the happier moments for the longs after all this time...
Accrual basis will be required for GAAP, and the tax NOL's may actually generate a deferred tax Asset once profits are established down the road, but hopefully the NOL's will be utililized so quickly it won't matter. Any significant sales commitments will probably be disclosed on the 10-Q. Could be some creative accounting to occur if any front-end payment from a partner has some caveats or recourse issues to Mannkind. I am just so ready to be able to talk about these kind of issues once the FDA gets off of its ARSE and approves this thing with a mild label!!!!
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Post by goyocafe on Jun 23, 2014 14:16:23 GMT -5
I really want to know if there's a $200 MM order waiting for final approval. Imagine the press release the day after the approval release announcing this sale. Forget the partnership announcement, if there is any truth to this, that would be an amazing boost to the momentum in getting sales off the ground.
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Post by alcc on Jun 23, 2014 14:26:04 GMT -5
Reported earnings (GAAP and non-GAAP) will be meaningless for a few years. The key will be revenue ramp. Even that will be discounted for the 1st year or two, so people will key on street sales projections, which will vary all over the place (think AF!). Plus there is the issue of revenue recognition. The most conservative method would recognize revenue only upon reported sell-through by partners, which in the case of non-US sales may be delayed more than 1 qtr. Etc. Etc. Thus the stock will remain a story stock (as opposed to a numbers stock) for a while. The best outcome for near/medium term stock price would be if the partner takes an equity position in the company. That will be rightly be seen as a strong endorsement and will place a tangible (therefore reasonably stable) price on the stock. I see this as the most bullish (and medium probability) near term development. Otherwise, expect bumpy ride!
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