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Post by realisticview on Jun 17, 2014 11:10:00 GMT -5
Really, who doesn't know chance for approval are ~ 90%.
At $10 or $11, the FDA approval is already priced into pps.
The market is a forward looking mechanism.
I believe the best strategy would be to sell any (if there is one) dramatic (10% or more) pps increase on day approval is announced.
If there ever was one, this is a sell the news event.
As far as playing the partnership announcement, I would look for a 40% fib retracement to re-enter.
imho.
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Post by BD on Jun 17, 2014 11:48:17 GMT -5
I dunno, there are a lot of skittish investors out there who are likely waiting for approval before jumping in. So will the "sell the news" profit-taking outrun the newbies buying in and wanting to beat the partnership announcement (which we have now heard may not in fact take a few months)?
Will those who've held for ages be in a big rush to take profits?
I don't think so.
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Jun 17, 2014 11:55:10 GMT -5
I completely disagree with you on success being priced in. With existing large short interest along with a barrage of hits from Seeking Alpha and Motley Fool 5 to 1 negative; I think when the FDA Approves and Partnership Announced the Shorts will get a wedgie they will Never Forget.
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Post by spiro on Jun 17, 2014 12:26:09 GMT -5
I would not be surprised by $12 - $15 pre-approval. After FDA approval, the share price could easily run past $18 -$20. Then the timing of the partnership announcement, along with upgrades will make it a nightmare for the shorts. The partner will make strong statements about Afrezza and it's potential, to reassure it's investors. This is where the shorts will feel their greatest squeeze. There is no doubt that the longs will lighten up during these events, but new buyers and institutions will keep the price up. The big question remains, how do the shorts cover 68 million shares? Ok, but I still don't trust the FDA. It ain't approved till it's approved.
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Post by alcc on Jun 17, 2014 12:37:54 GMT -5
By definition everything that is known (which includes developments in process) about a company is priced in. That is a tautology. It's meaningless. If mkt actions/reactions are that easy to read every investor would own his/her own private island in the sun.
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Post by cannon5974 on Jun 17, 2014 13:02:38 GMT -5
If the approval is priced in; then why wouldn't we all sell our shares now? Why risk the chance that the FDA request more info or denies? Honestly that makes no sense. If this gets approved; the stock doubles easily IMO. It may settle down lower after that though.
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Jun 17, 2014 13:33:28 GMT -5
If the approval is priced in; then why wouldn't we all sell our shares now? Why risk the chance that the FDA request more info or denies? Honestly that makes no sense. If this gets approved; the stock doubles easily IMO. It may settle down lower after that though. Mannkind Management have stated that the FDA have no more questions regarding the decision. This in it self should satisfy half of your question. In life we use educated guesses as well as intense research X a group of very intelligent investors here. The Adcom by FDA Scientists gave approval for type 1 13 yes to 1 no type 2 14 yes to 0 no. While there is no sure thing; even the media used by shorts has changed the argument from "if" Afrezza is approved to mostly accepting that it will be but will be subject to reluctance by physicians who may compare it to Exubra and are wrong. If you don't understand what Technosphere is and could be worth; IMHO you should be investing in Gum. Excuse my cynicism... if you are legit and simply uneducated there are volumes for you to listen to and an ADCOM to watch. Personally; I don't buy your act. |
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Post by cannon5974 on Jun 17, 2014 13:48:24 GMT -5
If the approval is priced in; then why wouldn't we all sell our shares now? Why risk the chance that the FDA request more info or denies? Honestly that makes no sense. If this gets approved; the stock doubles easily IMO. It may settle down lower after that though. Mannkind Management have stated that the FDA have no more questions regarding the decision. This in it self should satisfy half of your question. In life we use educated guesses as well as intense research X a group of very intelligent investors here. The Adcom by FDA Scientists gave approval for type 1 13 yes to 1 no type 2 14 yes to 0 no. While there is no sure thing; even the media used by shorts has changed the argument from "if" Afrezza is approved to mostly accepting that it will be but will be subject to reluctance by physicians who may compare it to Exubra and are wrong. If you don't understand what Technosphere is and could be worth; IMHO you should be investing in Gum. Excuse my cynicism... if you are legit and simply uneducated there are volumes for you to listen to and an ADCOM to watch. Personally; I don't buy your act. Kind of guy; I said that I think this thing doubles on approval. I'm not concerned about approval, but if I thought it wouldn't go up at all once approved; I would sell my shares. (like realistic view states) I'm currently holding a ridiculous amount of shares expecting the stock to double to triple from here by year end. If I didn't understand "Technosphere"; I would take my 400% gain (so far) in this stock and move on. Hit the books! |
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Jun 17, 2014 13:56:22 GMT -5
Completely my error Cannon. Took your statement out of context.
Best to you.
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 17, 2014 15:06:44 GMT -5
Not completely sure, like most of the rest of you, what the stock will do upon approval. But I am pretty darn sure that the short position will rise. If I were a biotech shorter, I could see doing some shorting at this price, figuring that if the FDA goes thumbs down, we're down to $2, and if approved, we might spike a bit, then retrace, especially if the label is not all we want. I'm anything but short this stock, but I can remain cautious and objective with the best of them!! But, objectively, once approval with a reasonable label happens, the eventual partnership announcement is going to be positively venomous for any shorts remaining.
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Post by MnkdMainer (MM) on Jun 17, 2014 20:54:45 GMT -5
Baba, I think you have made a point that there is almost always a sell off after a spike from a positive binary event. Do you think this will be any different? I realize we are looking at two binary events with the second (partnership) expected to follow the first (approval). Would appreciate the benefit of your experience and insight here.
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Jun 17, 2014 21:22:33 GMT -5
Baba, I think you have made a point that there is almost always a sell off after a spike from a positive binary event. Do you think this will be any different? I realize we are looking at two binary events with the second (partnership) expected to follow the first (approval). Would appreciate the benefit of your experience and insight here. you might want to read George Rho's most recent article again. fwiw. Best to you. |
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 18, 2014 0:12:48 GMT -5
Baba, I think you have made a point that there is almost always a sell off after a spike from a positive binary event. Do you think this will be any different? I realize we are looking at two binary events with the second (partnership) expected to follow the first (approval). Would appreciate the benefit of your experience and insight here. MM, while the FDA up or down is definitely a binary event, I don't view the partnership as binary. Of course, if MNKD were to announce that, "well, we really tried to get a partner, but no one was interested," that would be the negative side of the binary event, that's for sure! But, that won't happen, even I am sure of that! At this point, my numbers have changed for the better. So, if we're at $10.50 prior to FDA, and FDA gives thumbs up and a reasonable label, I see a spike to $12.50 to $13, and a retracement to $10 to $11. And then some ups some downs, depending on whose writing what. Then, upon a partnership announcement, depending on with whom and just how good it sounds, I could see going from, say $11 to $15-$17. Thereafter, depending on the press we get, we could easily hit $20. I just can't wait for the TV ads, that's when people are really going to realize what kind of tiger we've got by the tail! Anyway, the above is worth what you just paid for it, MM, but that's the way I see it. |
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Post by slushy on Jun 18, 2014 11:49:35 GMT -5
Here's my take on our situation (note that I'm in the camp of MNKD is fantastic and has an extremely bright future):
The FDA approval is already priced into the share price. If you look back to the prices leading up to the FDA catalysts in the past, none of them made it to the double digits. The last time we even smelled $10 was in 2010 for about a week. Anyone who can't recognize that the approval (and possibly more) is being priced in is being blindly optimistic as there is no other reason for our price to be this high right now. That said, if you also look at our history, we've stuck very firmly to the adage "buy on the rumor, sell on the news". The reason being, in my opinion, because our news is never as great as we want it to be (we are a very optimistic bunch). In terms of trading in the here and now, I don't see any reason to hold during the FDA approval.
In order for us to maintain our price and go higher, the FDA needs to not only approve but to approve with a weak label. Who can honestly tell me they think the FDA is going to be that kind to us? They have every incentive to cover their own ass with a tough label, and have shown time and time again that they aren't as excited about this drug as the diabetes community or the investment community (I'll remind you of the negative tone the FDA took with the adcom docs). Keep in mind, while we all generally give approval a 80-90% chance, there is still a possibility the FDA asks for more info, delays in someway, etc... The most likely scenario is that they approve, but with a seemingly harsh label. Immediately following approval with said label, people will sell off because it's not as bright and shiny as they were told. The AFs and Cramers will come out and do the "told you so"... then George Rho and his ilk will come out and say "wait a minute, here's what that really means"... the stock will find a resting place while the war of words rages on... and then partnership announcement will have the stock jump again.
To those who are investors at heart, you can hold through all this and weather the storm. For me personally, I'm a hybrid investor/trader, and to me there is an angle to be played here. I see very little incentive to hold through FDA, and a large opportunity to sell now (roughly $10.50) and buy back in once the sell off occurs (probably at least 25% if last August was any indication). Keep in mind, that if we assume the approval is priced in, the only real catalyst left is partnership. By managements own admission, that is AT LEAST 1.5 - 2 months after approval.
Just to be clear, I plan to sell very soon and buy back in some time after approval. Then sell a portion of my shares once partnership is announced and keep the rest in for the long long haul because I do believe in this product and this company (particularly the potential of Technosphere).
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Post by BD on Jun 18, 2014 12:11:55 GMT -5
slushy, a very well-articulated post. As a "hybrid" type myself, there's always the likelihood of new Black Swans coming along in a stock like this. I've been tending toward the "investor" side lately rather than the "trading" side, though, because of the long-term potential.
And, BTW, Matt's latest comments on partnership timing put the announcement at anywhere from a "few days" after approval to a few months, so that should make things all the more interesting. This entire scenario just screams "Short squeeze!" at me, and I'd hate not to be at the party when that happens!
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