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Post by liane on Jun 19, 2014 20:55:28 GMT -5
Any protein based drug would be a candidate. In these cases, rapidity is not the key issue, but bypassing the gut is. Think antibody-based drugs, Fc fusion proteins, anticoagulants, blood factors, bone morphogenetic proteins, engineered protein scaffolds, enzymes, growth factors, hormones, interferons, interleukins, and thrombolytics.
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Post by spiro on Jun 19, 2014 21:10:23 GMT -5
chmith27,
It seems you don't know very much about the technosphere technology. I got most of my information about technosphere from Dr. Leone-Bay and Jonathan M. Goldman, MNKD's V.P of Business Development, at the Drug Delivery Conference last January. I attended the conference with Ashiwi. We were told that that the technosphere pain platform may actually be more valuable than Afrezza and that there were dozens of other potential applications for technosphere that could be explored. Al Mann actually ended his presentation by stating, "Imagine the Possibilities". I don't think he was talking about afrezza. BTW, your attempt to replace Babaoriley as the Alpha Wolf was commendable, but unsuccessful. Baba's dominance is overwhelming. It ain't approved, until it's approved.
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Post by savzak on Jun 19, 2014 21:23:24 GMT -5
Coincidentally, there is an active thread on Yahoo right now regarding this issue: whether MannKind is overemphasizing the potential of Technosphere.
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Post by alcc on Jun 19, 2014 22:32:40 GMT -5
Surprising (to me), the number of weak-ish hands here.
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 19, 2014 23:41:33 GMT -5
Number of "weak hands," as you call them, not at all surprising to me. Many have ridden this one up and down more than a Macy's escalator!
Slushy just wants to hit the nail on the head, and it's risky. So do I, but am going about it a different way. It's not all about the money for most, it's also about the "sport" of it. Figuring what's going to happen, when and why, and playing it right. Okay, so the young doc is a bit on the weakish side, I'll have to deal with him!! LOL!
A big clue to me of what will happen in the 5 hours or so of trading after approval is right here in this thread. You won't find many here adding to their positions upon approval, but you will find a few selling either a little before or right after. What does that tell you about what the share price may do?
Alcc, as one who enjoys being right at least as much as I do, I'm surprised you are surprised.
You ought to see my statement from the account where I do most of the weird stuff - long and short puts and calls, in all sorts of configurations, strikes, expirations, etc., warrants and finally a few shares. The funny part is, I can't follow it - I do one type of transaction, but the Fidelity software doesn't keep, say, a spread transaction the way I intend it, it mixes and matches in some sort of fashion that jumbles it all up for me. I have to keep track separately, so that I'll know what the heck to do once it's time to do something!
I've done stuff like this for several years, but this is, by far, the biggest game I've been in.
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Post by alcc on Jun 20, 2014 0:13:57 GMT -5
I am guessing here, but it seems to me many of the weak-ish hands are not long timers who rode your Macy escalator but are traders who jumped on the bandwagon late-ish and are happy to get out with a 2x quick gain.
I do not deny I like to be right. Who doesn't? However, I have not made any predictions or even assertions that have a truth value. On the contrary, my point all along has been that nobody knows how the market will act or react, least of all those who repeatedly claim they know (AF, Cramer, those who think "approval" is priced in...)
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Post by chmith27 on Jun 20, 2014 3:54:58 GMT -5
chmith27, It seems you don't know very much about the technosphere technology. I got most of my information about technosphere from Dr. Leone-Bay and Jonathan M. Goldman, MNKD's V.P of Business Development, at the Drug Delivery Conference last January. I attended the conference with Ashiwi. We were told that that the technosphere pain platform may actually be more valuable than Afrezza and that there were dozens of other potential applications for technosphere that could be explored. Al Mann actually ended his presentation by stating, "Imagine the Possibilities". I don't think he was talking about afrezza. BTW, your attempt to replace Babaoriley as the Alpha Wolf was commendable, but unsuccessful. Baba's dominance is overwhelming. It ain't approved, until it's approved. liane i'm hearing you on the protein hormones and blood factors. i'm not on board with the thrombolytics/anticoagulant usage outside of straight factors. i'm thinking that none of these(not referring to anticoagulants) represent a large piece of the pie though- nothing like that of DM. could be a sizeable market, but for ~500mil outstanding shares? yes bypassing the gut should be kept in mind by me. but i don't know to what degree first pass hepatic metabolism plays a role in the loss of efficacy of the average oral medication. this could potentially result in less waste and lower cost of drug manufacturing (again though, theoretical and i can't make any definitive statements as of yet). spiro, i'm having some difficulty believing vague rhetoric from a dr so and so you met at conference, and a mnkd vp of business- probably not the most unbiased sources. it seems that there are a lot of theoretical uses of the technology but until randomized blinded clinical trials are done you just don't know much about efficacy and safety and we are years away from that. you are right that i don't know much about the technosphere technology- just like 99.99% of all other docs in the world. i read up on mnkd's site about a few hormones they have attached to technosphere but that isn't what you are talking about when you are thinking blockbuster. i'm not sold yet on technosphere other than for insulin and definitely not sold on it for narcotics as intranasal fentanyl exists already. i was believing in technosphere's non insulin potential a while back but then i realized i didn't have much actual evidence to base my conclusions on and i was just following sentiment. alcc, i held 60000+ shares through the adcom with a high cost basis (some overly aggressive put selling with the second CRL) and zero protection while the pps dipped into the low 4s i recall. that's not a weak hand. more like a little too ballsy on my part given the harsh FDA adcom notes, but we got stuck with that low pps and in hindsight it obviously paid off for me. but what does a strong hand actually mean? have you mortgaged your house to buy more shares? have you sold every last possession to buy shares because you are 100% sure your investment will quadruple in 30 days from now? my down syndrome buddy hasn't sold any of his shares so i guess he has a strong hand (he actually does have excessively strong hands). someone who has a lot to lose might get out much earlier than someone who does not feel they have much at stake or who feels they have a good back up plan. like many others i now have a sizeable profit to protect and so it's become less about gambling now and more about mitigating risk. maybe a strong hand just means you are hunkering down no matter what happens. i believe that hand will win in the end but i'm not confident enough in that plan follow it completely. best of luck. |
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Post by liane on Jun 20, 2014 4:40:44 GMT -5
chad,
I wasn't even referring to 1st pass hepatic metabolism, although that's a big factor too. I was referring to drugs that now must be infused since they would be broken down by digestive acids and enzymes - ie proteins and peptides. The first thing that comes to my mind is some of the biologics used in rheumatology.
I do agree that each of the categories mentioned in my 1st post would be a smaller market than insulin, but taken together, it's a market that cannot be ignored. I have no delusions about the time frame to monetize these applications - easily 5-10 years due to the clinical trials that would need to be run. But that's why I'm holding my position very long term.
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Post by spiro on Jun 20, 2014 8:17:42 GMT -5
With all due respect chmith27, you need to reconsider Dr. Andrea Leone-Bay's opinion. She gave a very impressive presentation at the Drug Delivery Conference and took the time to answer all of our questions about Afrezza and mainly tecnnosphere, when we met with her later that day. If she is excited about technosphere, then I'm excited about technosphere. Oh well, but Spiro's not a doctor, he is just a lowly retired ex science teacher. But, it ain't approved, until it's approved.
Biography - Dr Andrea Leone-Bay Print
andrea_leone-bay
Dr Andrea Leone-Bay - Mannkind Corporation
Andrea Leone-Bay holds a PhD in Organic Chemistry and has worked in the pharmaceutical industry for 20+ years. She has published 45 manuscripts in peer-reviewed journals and is an inventor on 86 issued US patents. Her primary areas of expertise include chemistry and formulations research and development for protein and peptide delivery.
Andrea is currently Vice President, Pharmaceutical Development at MannKind Corporation where she and her staff are focused on the pulmonary delivery of several therapeutic peptides, including insulin.
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Post by brentie on Jun 20, 2014 8:21:23 GMT -5
With all due respect chmith27, you need to reconsider Dr. Andrea Leone-Bay's opinion. She gave a very impressive presentation at the Drug Delivery Conference and took the time to answer all of our questions about Afrezza and mainly tecnnosphere, when we met with her later that day. If she is excited about technosphere, then I'm excited about technosphere. Oh well, but Spiro's not a doctor, he is just a lowly retired ex science teacher. But, it ain't approved, until it's approved. Biography - Dr Andrea Leone-Bay Printandrea_leone-bay Dr Andrea Leone-Bay - Mannkind Corporation Andrea Leone-Bay holds a PhD in Organic Chemistry and has worked in the pharmaceutical industry for 20+ years. She has published 45 manuscripts in peer-reviewed journals and is an inventor on 86 issued US patents. Her primary areas of expertise include chemistry and formulations research and development for protein and peptide delivery. Andrea is currently Vice President, Pharmaceutical Development at MannKind Corporation where she and her staff are focused on the pulmonary delivery of several therapeutic peptides, including insulin. |
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Post by jpg on Jun 20, 2014 8:38:22 GMT -5
chmith27, It seems you don't know very much about the technosphere technology. I got most of my information about technosphere from Dr. Leone-Bay and Jonathan M. Goldman, MNKD's V.P of Business Development, at the Drug Delivery Conference last January. I attended the conference with Ashiwi. We were told that that the technosphere pain platform may actually be more valuable than Afrezza and that there were dozens of other potential applications for technosphere that could be explored. Al Mann actually ended his presentation by stating, "Imagine the Possibilities". I don't think he was talking about afrezza. BTW, your attempt to replace Babaoriley as the Alpha Wolf was commendable, but unsuccessful. Baba's dominance is overwhelming. It ain't approved, until it's approved. liane i'm hearing you on the protein hormones and blood factors. i'm not on board with the thrombolytics/anticoagulant usage outside of straight factors. i'm thinking that none of these(not referring to anticoagulants) represent a large piece of the pie though- nothing like that of DM. could be a sizeable market, but for ~500mil outstanding shares? yes bypassing the gut should be kept in mind by me. but i don't know to what degree first pass hepatic metabolism plays a role in the loss of efficacy of the average oral medication. this could potentially result in less waste and lower cost of drug manufacturing (again though, theoretical and i can't make any definitive statements as of yet). spiro, i'm having some difficulty believing vague rhetoric from a dr so and so you met at conference, and a mnkd vp of business- probably not the most unbiased sources. it seems that there are a lot of theoretical uses of the technology but until randomized blinded clinical trials are done you just don't know much about efficacy and safety and we are years away from that. you are right that i don't know much about the technosphere technology- just like 99.99% of all other docs in the world. i read up on mnkd's site about a few hormones they have attached to technosphere but that isn't what you are talking about when you are thinking blockbuster. i'm not sold yet on technosphere other than for insulin and definitely not sold on it for narcotics as intranasal fentanyl exists already. i was believing in technosphere's non insulin potential a while back but then i realized i didn't have much actual evidence to base my conclusions on and i was just following sentiment. alcc, i held 60000+ shares through the adcom with a high cost basis (some overly aggressive put selling with the second CRL) and zero protection while the pps dipped into the low 4s i recall. that's not a weak hand. more like a little too ballsy on my part given the harsh FDA adcom notes, but we got stuck with that low pps and in hindsight it obviously paid off for me. but what does a strong hand actually mean? have you mortgaged your house to buy more shares? have you sold every last possession to buy shares because you are 100% sure your investment will quadruple in 30 days from now? my down syndrome buddy hasn't sold any of his shares so i guess he has a strong hand (he actually does have excessively strong hands). someone who has a lot to lose might get out much earlier than someone who does not feel they have much at stake or who feels they have a good back up plan. like many others i now have a sizeable profit to protect and so it's become less about gambling now and more about mitigating risk. maybe a strong hand just means you are hunkering down no matter what happens. i believe that hand will win in the end but i'm not confident enough in that plan follow it completely. best of luck. I would simply add that the pain medication Mannkind is talking about is not a narcotics and does not have, from what I can tell, a meu receptor pathway. It would be a completely new category of medication with no tachaphylaxis or dependancy potential if true. JPG |
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 20, 2014 8:45:40 GMT -5
Nice youtube, Brentie. You notice how Dr. Bay uses her hands a lot when she speaks - Greeks are mesmerized by that sort of thing - like a kitten with a ball of twine - no wonder Spiro bought everything she said!
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Post by spiro on Jun 20, 2014 8:53:20 GMT -5
Baba, you could be right, but 5 month's ago, she may have used a pointer. I will have to check with Ashiwi on that.
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Post by alcc on Jun 20, 2014 10:53:23 GMT -5
alcc, i held 60000+ shares through the adcom with a high cost basis (some overly aggressive put selling with the second CRL) and zero protection while the pps dipped into the low 4s i recall. that's not a weak hand. more like a little too ballsy on my part given the harsh FDA adcom notes, but we got stuck with that low pps and in hindsight it obviously paid off for me. but what does a strong hand actually mean? have you mortgaged your house to buy more shares? have you sold every last possession to buy shares because you are 100% sure your investment will quadruple in 30 days from now? my down syndrome buddy hasn't sold any of his shares so i guess he has a strong hand (he actually does have excessively strong hands). someone who has a lot to lose might get out much earlier than someone who does not feel they have much at stake or who feels they have a good back up plan. like many others i now have a sizeable profit to protect and so it's become less about gambling now and more about mitigating risk. maybe a strong hand just means you are hunkering down no matter what happens. i believe that hand will win in the end but i'm not confident enough in that plan follow it completely. best of luck. chmith, In my book, a strong hand is one that can afford to hold through short term swings. Yes, that includes up swings. Which automatically implies no leverage, house not mortgaged, and a strong enough conviction to let profits run. I have a position quite a bit larger than yours with a 5x gain. But am content to let it run to at least a 10B mkt cap (FMV imo) or when the disruptive story changes. Through experience, including painful ones where I sold way too early, I learned that a company with a disruptive product will run once its story has been validated (yes, the street is always late to the party, both getting in and getting out). More importantly, the run usually does not stop based only on (excessive) valuation; it stops when its story or general mkt (therefore risk profile other than price) is perceived to have changed. That said, I do understand your instinct to take profit. Profit is always good and never real until taken. Best of luck to you. |
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Post by chmith27 on Jun 20, 2014 12:49:53 GMT -5
alcc, i held 60000+ shares through the adcom with a high cost basis (some overly aggressive put selling with the second CRL) and zero protection while the pps dipped into the low 4s i recall. that's not a weak hand. more like a little too ballsy on my part given the harsh FDA adcom notes, but we got stuck with that low pps and in hindsight it obviously paid off for me. but what does a strong hand actually mean? have you mortgaged your house to buy more shares? have you sold every last possession to buy shares because you are 100% sure your investment will quadruple in 30 days from now? my down syndrome buddy hasn't sold any of his shares so i guess he has a strong hand (he actually does have excessively strong hands). someone who has a lot to lose might get out much earlier than someone who does not feel they have much at stake or who feels they have a good back up plan. like many others i now have a sizeable profit to protect and so it's become less about gambling now and more about mitigating risk. maybe a strong hand just means you are hunkering down no matter what happens. i believe that hand will win in the end but i'm not confident enough in that plan follow it completely. best of luck. chmith, In my book, a strong hand is one that can afford to hold through short term swings. Yes, that includes up swings. Which automatically implies no leverage, house not mortgaged, and a strong enough conviction to let profits run. I have a position quite a bit larger than yours with a 5x gain. But am content to let it run to at least a 10B mkt cap (FMV imo) or when the disruptive story changes. Through experience, including painful ones where I sold way too early, I learned that a company with a disruptive product will run once its story has been validated (yes, the street is always late to the party, both getting in and getting out). More importantly, the run usually does not stop based only on (excessive) valuation; it stops when its story or general mkt (therefore risk profile other than price) is perceived to have changed. That said, I do understand your instinct to take profit. Profit is always good and never real until taken. Best of luck to you. alcc yea i guess i admittedly have a weak hand. with a 5x gain you must have gotten in around 2 so it must not have been that hard to hold through adcom being well into the black for you. my cost basis was around 6.50ish and somehwere just under $400k invested with almost no other investments (cost basis so high due to very aggressive puts around last crl and some missed ops around 2, and i'm not including my options premiums in that cost which some would disagree with). i was totally rolling the dice over 4 years and i was fine with that. i then had a "strong hand" in that i was holding no matter what. but now that i have about 250K in after tax cash profits i'm not so easy to let go of it. given a mistrust of the fda and the industry in general, yes i'm willing to walk away sooner than later- although i'm not walking away when i plan sell pre pdufa- i'm leaving half of my shares in play for partnership. jpg it's good you reminded me that these were not mu receptor antagonists, although i can't remember what they were exactly. spiro she's still an employee of mnkd- drug reps will say anything to put food on the table. but she seemed nice so i'll give you the benefit. liane i agree that as a group these classes of meds have significant earning potential. i don't doubt that partner negotiations are hung up on what the techno platform is worth, where the industry isn't wanting to pay what al believes it's worth. but so far we don't have much in terms of objective evidence about these other molecule combinations to drive therapy. i really hope though, that someone loosens up a bit so we don't get diluted again. |
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