Here's the way I see it (imho) thanks to some current cash numbers provded to me by Sports...
Cash bal at end of March/1st Q = 27m
Cap Raise in April = 26m for current coh total of 53m
Mike C said Mnkd currently burns about 8m per month so 53m/8m = 6 months of cash (not including holdback for Deerfield at end of each Q)
6 months gets us to September.
So the focus becomes what happens to get more cash between now and September and how much cash will they be able to raise and optomistically how much would we as shareholders like to see them raise?
Ideally imho I would like to see them raise enough cash to get through the end of 2019 which would be 13 months (including Sep 18 thru Dec 18)
13 months at say 10m per month (increase for possible increase in marketing etc ) is 130m. Is this possible? Well let's take a look...
What events do we have to look forward to between now and September? Or should I say the end of July as Mike wisely mentioned today they choose not to wait to the last minute to raise capital.... Nor should they this time around...
Internation expansion: Mexico, China, India
RLS
One Drop
Co-Promote or Lic Opp
Stat Study/ADA
New marketing campaign that he referred to in Wainwright discussion
(What he did not focus on was better ins coverage
)
My humble guess as to the possiblities of the above are as follows:
Yes to international with possible 20m upfront between the two with positive impact on pps
Yes to RLS w possible 5m milestone payment with positive impact on pps
Yes to one drop no cash but positive impact on pps
Not likely to get a partnership/lic imho as would have to give away too much of company or revenue in US at this point and as Mike has said the US is the heart and sole of Afrezza sales. If for TreT that is still a ways off
Stat Study Results Reveal will have positive impact on stk but who knows how much? I expect very positive results but not sure how this can immediately be monetized via increasing scripts/revenue.
New marketing campaign: this remains to be seen as need to better understand creative, messaging and media plan and spend against it. Right now does not seem like they have any funds available for any meaningful media or marketing.
So from above if we get a modest $25m and with Mnkd that is a big IF, we will then only need 105m to get through end of 2019.
However, Mike is also on record with guidance of 20m to 30m in revenue for this year. Let's take 20m as the number for revenue. Now we have 45m of funds without dilution so far this year. So actually it is possible under this senario no more dilution this year. Although given its mnkd, this is being very optomistic, but still possible. Now we only need 85m to get thorugh 2019 and this does not include any guidance for sales revenue generated in 2019. (We will project 20m for 2019 as well just to be cautious.) So now we are finally at a need for 65m to get to the end of 2019. Hope this back of the napkin calculation makes sense.
The next question becomes how much of a positive effect each of these events individually and aggreated have on the stk price vs any downward pressure from FUD, Shorts and the ever present need to raise cash with possible dilution as the arguement.
My best guess, again imho is that by July we are possibly in the low to mid 3's given the above events on the near term horizon. Now again it depends on the exact terms of each event once revealed to understand how positive WS will perceive each one to be. Assuming for this conversation that each event is at least positive, the low to mid 3's is my best "guess" for the pps in July 2018. And that's if each event is actually checked off Mike's list as completed and announced by then.
At say $3.25 pps, we would need to sell a little over 20m shares which is well within the SEC limit I beleive, percentage wise of how many outstanding shares can be sold within a six month period.
So in conclusion, I am in NO WAY projecting this will happen. I am just trying to put forth a reasonable sceanrio with real world possibilites, numbers and timeframes from which to have further conversation on the topic. Afterall, this is mnkd and nothing seems to go the way we s/h's would like. But the above is possible and not wholly unrealistic imho... GLTAL"s!!!
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