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Post by mannmade on Nov 14, 2016 17:34:07 GMT -5
Unfortunately Peppy from my personal experiencers and in speaking with a couple of people I am and have tried to help get a script it is just that simple for some doctors. Now i do agree with you that eventually digital technology/cgm's will help change the perception of many docs but for a T1 in relatively good control between 6.3 and 7.0 there seems to be very little motivation or reason to assist with the switch to AFREZZA for now.
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Post by mannmade on Nov 14, 2016 17:12:32 GMT -5
Peppy, simply not that simple I hate to say as you would rightly think it should be. However many doctors still think there may be long term lung issues among other things...
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Post by mannmade on Nov 14, 2016 15:02:25 GMT -5
Agree Compound and Ty...
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Post by mannmade on Nov 14, 2016 14:26:27 GMT -5
Based on the last conference call I am looking at the date of 11.09.16 as the start of MannKind 2.1, which is for me, the logical update to MannKind 2.0 which was started when Sanofi returned the rights to AFREZZA back to MannKind on April 4th or so.
I think by now everyone knows the main points of what made the last conference call so positive. So now what do I/we have to look forward to with MannKind 2.1 in the next 3 months (really the 4th Q 2016 CC)?
I am listing (my opinion only) what I think are the reasonable possibilities for near term events that should allow for the continuation of the upward movement of the share price... Now that Mnkd has a runway into 3rd Q of 2017, short term money is not an issue and that "Money Elephant" has temporarily left the room leaving only its twin of weekly low scripts growth/counts.
So with the money elephant gone for now, we should expect to see the following by year's end...
1. Steady (but slow) script growth, perhaps 400 to 500 per week by year's end. (Note there will be plenty of holiday, 3 and 4 day week excuses to go around regarding slower than expected script growth...)
2. A very modest RLS payment of say $10M, which will prove they are real and that the deal is verifiable as a potential revenue stream down the road. We may not learn much more about them, but the actual payment should be a confidence builder regarding MannKind technology and alternative revenue streams.
I believe the two items above will help us get the price back over $1.00 pps.
Additionally, for the longer term within the next twelve months we can look forward to the following:
1. Start and Conclusion of Pediatric Study
2. Beginning of JDRF/Mnkd Long Term Safety Study plus other studies as indicated by Ray Urbanski
3. More Robust DTC Campaign
4. Epi Hale Progress towards a early 2018 Product Launch
5. Continued Script Growth to perhaps 1,000 to 2,000 per week by year end 2017. (I have greatly reduced my expectations for the path of script growth as I have learned just how much disbelief there is in the medical community regarding the anecdotal evidence of how good AFREZZA really is as compared to the label and allowed FDA information/communication about AFREZZA.)
6. Label Change
7. International opportunity
8. Partnership
9. Additional funds from warrants kicking in at $1.50
10. Hiring of Senior Reps as MannKind EE's*
11. Television Commercials*
(*Now with regard to the asterisks, I am not sure if the funds for those items are part of the current calculation for runway extension until 3rd Q 2017 or not. If no,t then they must have a plan for additional funds which to me would also be a positive. And if they are already budgeted for then even better...)
What I see is that with the beginning of MannKind 2.1 there is a very targeted and methodical approach to supporting and growing AFREZZA's market share. This is vey important because as I have learned from my own personal experiences the resistance to change in the medical community is huge here, so it is going to take time, more time than I ever imagined for a drug that is so good...
From what I now personally know having spoken with many Endos and doctors, that in addition to the above, MannKind will have to get more opportunistic and try to engage the voice of a few "Alpha Endos" and thought leaders to get them to publish positive articles so that the rest of the pack will follow.
To me this will be one of the key ingredients to moving the needle. While patient awareness and DTC are necessary to improve overall awareness and demand, without Endo/Medical understanding & acceptance of AFREZZA, we will not succeed. As imho, no matter how many patients demand AFREZZA, if their doctor says no most will listen to their doctor and very few will take the time and energy to fight with their doctor or switch to another doctor to get it.
With the other issues of Spirometry, Insurance, etc being resolved by MannKind the above, to me, remains the most critical and number one priority to overcome in an effort to make AFREZZA the overwhelming success it should be...
But I do personally believe MannKind is on the right path...
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Post by mannmade on Nov 11, 2016 19:04:02 GMT -5
Now a terrible stock to short. Let's see what the shorts have to say about this next week... however in the meantime we have two more days to enjoy this past week... 😎🙏 |
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Post by mannmade on Nov 11, 2016 17:10:04 GMT -5
Thanks Compound. Useful info. Appreciate it...  |
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Post by mannmade on Nov 11, 2016 17:08:26 GMT -5
Send Mike a note... Also try and have a script written and then use mannkind cares if rejected for coverage. Think they should be able to iron out details and in meantime they will facilitate the delivery of your dad's first script for free.
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Post by mannmade on Nov 11, 2016 16:30:47 GMT -5
Yes it depends on the degree and level of change that is asked for as the supporting documentation becomes increasingly more detailed and expensive to produce (the studies)
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Post by mannmade on Nov 11, 2016 13:12:28 GMT -5
agree Manmande. Talking with Sports yesterday we were thinking the same.. MNKD could have waited and go to arbitration.. with the possiblity of losing (maybe) but waiting 1-2 years to see any payday.. This way they get the money quicker, albeit less, and have SNY out of the picture COMPLETELY by 12/31/16!!! SNY wins by paying less now (most likely) and not having another small bio sue their butt! see it as a win win Yes and let's not forget that Mnkd shareholders win... No dilution, a cleaned up balance sheet, no more talk of BK, RS etc (for now) and a runway extended to allow for plenty of opportunity to succeed... Big win as I see it... Nothing wrong with basking in it for a few days... Gd knows we and especially the Mnkd mgmt team has felt the pain for quite some time... Monday they go back to the business of making Mnkd/AFREZZA the success we all know it can be...  The future is bright and I do realize Mnkd is still very vulnerable but we have many things to look forward to within the next 12 months which we should be able to survive even with current financing only stated to last until 3rd Q 2017: Future Possible Opportunities:RLS Epi Partner (or Substantial Progress w FDA) Back above $1.00 (will make for better future financing if needed and above $1.50 warrants kick in for additional cash) More insurance coverage Label Change Increasing scripts which will lead to increasing revenue to offset cash burn Label Change Possible International Deal Results of pediatric studies Did I miss anything? |
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Post by mannmade on Nov 11, 2016 12:38:28 GMT -5
Honestly I think Sanofi and MannKind both got what they wanted... Legal separation and a final divorce from each other...
It was a negotiation and there were no favors here, both sides got what they wanted...
Either side could have done better or worse if this had gone to arbitration, however it was in neither parties interest to get involved in a protracted time consuming, resource wasting legal hassle when they were both ready to settle.
Did MannKind need it more than Sanofi? Perhaps, but now Sanofi not only settles the potential issue for good, they restore some credibility with small bio-techs that may have hesitated in dealing with them and have no blame if ManKind for some reason does not make it.
Case closed... imho...
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Post by mannmade on Nov 11, 2016 9:31:46 GMT -5
No he is busy celebrating and has a Mallomar hangover... Good thing it looks like his supply of AFREZZA is not in jeopardy anymore... |
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Post by mannmade on Nov 11, 2016 9:25:35 GMT -5
Also as I have mentioned before AFREZZA was used by the Samsun Institute w the AP during trials.
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Post by mannmade on Nov 11, 2016 0:56:01 GMT -5
Krispy Kreme Donuts and Godiva Chocolate come to mind. The perfect choice for AFREZZA reps... . Actually perhaps the new sample packs for AFREZZA should also include Godiva Chocolates... 😊 |
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Post by mannmade on Nov 10, 2016 22:37:27 GMT -5
Dont think MNKD will partner for EPI. Looks like a cheap trial and we already have a sales force we are building so why not leverage that? Also there should be a good market of combo products with EPI. Agreed as the API and TS are both already approved by FDA. And in fact I believe this was mentioned by MannKind previously as a reason for pursuing. |
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Post by mannmade on Nov 10, 2016 22:24:16 GMT -5
Mannkind licensed the technology so it's up to RLS to do what they want. I don't believe the licensing came with dictating what they can and can't do While I do not know the terms of the deal I am guessing it does set guidelines and parameters for what they can and cannot do. For example, otherwise what is to stop them from competing with MannKind if they could? Also am sure MannKind does not want them presenting a conflict for other possible deals using TS. |
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