|
Post by mindovermatter on Jan 12, 2016 13:58:07 GMT -5
I don't know what these articles add besides what everyone knows already. Kind of state the obvious. Company is in trouble but there might be hope...hmm ok! They don't add anything other than $ in the pocket of the article's author while it might not be much. The vast majority of the pumpers were horribly wrong about Mannkind so far. The fudsters/shorts were right on the money. Good drugs won't have a chance if they don't have the backing of insurance and doctors along with good marketing. Afrezza failed on all fronts.
|
|
|
Post by mindovermatter on Jan 12, 2016 12:21:26 GMT -5
Greg. Mannkindlong is probably one of his various aliases here. My god only here 3 weeks and already 3 stars. This board has been great but could use colon cleanse occasionally! This Board could use a dose of reality. The Afrezza Luddites want to whitewash the failure of Afrezza and blame SNY. Anyone who breaks the cocoon of invincibility you have on AFrezza is demonized. The failure of Afrezza is complex and there is plenty of blame to go around. But to say SNY only wanted Afrezza marketing data in 2015 so they could do the launch right is pure BS. And then SNY terminates the contract after acquiring the data they need at a cost of $400 mln. Does this make any sense? It does makes sense. You have made your point. Why not move on to another stock that you feel is more worthy to discuss as you have made it crystal clear that you believe Mannkind is toast? No sense in beating a dead dreamboat, right? Let those who don't agree with you continue to post their nonsense. You'll never be able to convince of your view point. BTW, no message board ever engages in reality. You must want to be a Don Quixote trying to make sense of senseless message boards.
|
|
|
Post by mindovermatter on Jan 12, 2016 12:10:21 GMT -5
Yup full launch. Some mags, a few ads on google. Jesus man a you truly this retarded? Who is retarded? SNY spent $400 mln on the launch. If you know anything about pharma, the sell is to the doc who writes the scripts. DTC is to get the patients to talk to the doc about a new drug. How much of that $400 million was given to MNKD in up front and milestone payments?
|
|
|
Post by mindovermatter on Jan 12, 2016 12:08:04 GMT -5
how do you know what Sanofi expected or what their plan was? Do you know what was discussed with Mannkind prior to the CEO getting fired and if the plan remained the same after the NEW CEO took over? You have no clue what Sanofi decided to do or not to do. I don't either. But what we do know is that their so called full launch was weak and would have never been done with any drug the company developed themselves. Their launch was one of trepidation and half measures when compared to other full launches. I just don't think Sanofi wanted to continue to spend the time, resources and money on a product (which they only own 65%) that still has many hurdles to overcome and a very slow sales ramp up. Their existing diabetes portfolio is already seeing a decline so their primary focus needs to be on that and quite frankly Afrezza was probably more of a threat to their existing portfolio than a benefit. I still believe the strategy changed when Viehbacher was canned, he was extremely innovative and wanted to take the company in a new direction while it seems this current CEO is sticking to their existing business units. I wouldn't be surprised if Sanofi's attempted to buy MNKD for a figure that Al was not willing to sell it for and that Sanofi realized it didn't make sense to spend money on something they would only get 65% for. And SNY diabetes business is in a tail spin. AFrezza wasn't going to help it without cannibalizing it.
|
|
|
Post by mindovermatter on Jan 12, 2016 12:04:51 GMT -5
Who is retarded? SNY spent $400 mln on the launch. If you know anything about pharma, the sell is to the doc who writes the scripts. DTC is to get the patients to talk to the doc about a new drug. After a year of marketing, how many doctors know anything about Afrezza? Can anyone answer this question? There seems to be a lot of dispute over this, but from what I've heard Matt say and others on this board (albeit anecdotal), a whole lot of them still don't know a thing about it. Look at the compiled list of prescribing doctors, it amounts to about 100. If you even double that number for lack of complete information gathering on our boards, that is a paltry number. If SNY spent $400 MM getting doctors on board, they have a lousy process no matter how you slice it. first, you are right. Many doctors never heard of it. Pharmacists too. And people have to remember that $400 million people throw around includes more than half of that going to MNKD in payments. That's not money for marketing or sales.
|
|
|
Post by mindovermatter on Jan 12, 2016 11:26:14 GMT -5
If you call not one radio ad, not one TV ad, not a full force of reps contacting all doctors that treat diabetes but just a handful of reps and advertising in Time and specific diabetes magazines, then yes you are right. It was a full launch. The pivotal point in the US Civil War was the battle of Gettysburg and specifically Pickett's charge. General Lee sent a brigade (12k men) directly against the Union center lead by General Pickett. The charge failed so badly (over 50% Confederate losses) that the grey coats withdrew back to Virginia. The same is true with Afrezza. SNY did a full launch and expected the early adopters to demand Afrezza. Who cares if it cost more? I want Afrezza! This happened to a very limited degree. As the market pushed back on SNY, they tried some DTC ads in magazines. There was no response to the ads. Zero! I think it was then that SNY gave up. What we saw as spotty marketing in the last few months was a manifestation of SNY doing as little as possible. Similar to General Lee, SNY withdrew back to Paris, so to speak, and waiting for the first opportunity to dump MNKD. My point is that SNY started with a full launch and ended up in full retreat. It was not just a marketing study. how do you know what Sanofi expected or what their plan was? Do you know what was discussed with Mannkind prior to the CEO getting fired and if the plan remained the same after the NEW CEO took over? You have no clue what Sanofi decided to do or not to do. I don't either. But what we do know is that their so called full launch was weak and would have never been done with any drug the company developed themselves. Their launch was one of trepidation and half measures when compared to other full launches.
|
|
|
Post by mindovermatter on Jan 12, 2016 10:44:42 GMT -5
Simply because where we are now MNKD has spent far less on marketing than Pfizer on Exubera. Also Afrezza, inhaled insulin should not be compared to something of less efficacy. The real valuation of MNKD has changed, only the perception has changed. Ask yourself this question: Do I invest in the new delivery technology, Technosphere, with Afrezza using the only monomer insulin on the market or am I following the volatility of Psycho-Investor. The new CEO of SNY was the one in charge of Exubera, which failed, so the question was am I still taking the risk or do I stay with what i know best? Today we all know his position. The perception of MNKD valuation has diminished but Technosphere technology is still intact and the launch of Afrezza wasn't effective since it was a Pre-launch but very informative giving us access data which will enable us to not just perform better but also better liver experience for diabetics. Here we go again. SNY spent a lot of money on a full launch of Afrezza. It was not a marketing study. It was not a partial launch. MNKD did not go on a date with a chaperone. They wanted to and needed to bang the gong. A company does not fly hundreds of people around the country to learn how to sell a product when all they want is data. Why would SNY spend $400 mln to just get data and then cancel the contract so they cannot use the data. Makes no sense. The launch of Afrezza using SNY's sales and marketing resources failed miserably. Only $8 mln in sales. Total disaster which has tarnished the value of the Afrezza franchise and TS technology. FYI: Perception is reality when the optics are sooooo bad. If you call not one radio ad, not one TV ad, not a full force of reps contacting all doctors that treat diabetes but just a handful of reps and advertising in Time and specific diabetes magazines, then yes you are right. It was a full launch.
|
|
|
Post by mindovermatter on Jan 12, 2016 5:41:02 GMT -5
I'm trying to put out numbers without blowing smoke. Is $200M for a novel drug delivery platform a fairy tale? How did MNKD have a value in it's early stages of development? And yet there were investors... We do not know how far along the product development really is. We only know that there is at least 2 or 3 years of work on potential formulations and that trials have not begun. The suggestion has been that 2 TS formulations are near to entering a clinical stage. Apparently, we may hear from the CMO this Wednesday with more detail about this very topic. My contention on Afrezza is that many folks are writing off the value of Afrezza without committing numbers to paper. With due respect, they may lack the tools to perform that kind of analysis properly. Sales are growing and as such, we can make extrapolations, estimate likely expenses and discount future value. Certainly my valuations may be off as well, but I would like to see additional informed attempts at this. MNKD is like a baseball phenom who came on the scene having a 100 mph fastball. The kid was sure to succeed and was worth a lot. Today, the same kid is 30 yo and everybody can hit his fastball that has degraded to 88 mph. His baseball worth is far lower and consequently investors have shied away. As I have written before, the key to the NPV analysis is how fast can Afrezza sales rise due to a price decrease. This is guesswork which means the NPV model for Afrezza is guesswork. Even using the early adopter model, neither Exubera nor Afrezza gained early traction. Perhaps inhaled insulin is not a "gotta have" product. As for TS: What company will want to burn a billion dollars in drug development after seeing the Afrezza and Exubera debacle? There is value to Afrezza and TS. It will not be $5 ps. Or you could say MNKD is like OJ Howard, the TE of Alabama. He only garnered 394 yards all season with no TDs and wasn't really used to his potential. But in the NC game, he was correctly used and had a banner night with 208 receiving yds and 2 TDs to help Alabama win the game. Or you could more aptly say he was Jake Rudock of Michigan, who under the tutelage of Jim Harbaugh, had the best year ever as a QB after being replaced as a 2 year starter at Iowa. Mannkind and Afrezza might never make it in the market place but it might be that Sanofi was entirely inept in being able to correctly market it. Maybe, just maybe, Mannkind needs a more adept partner. The question now is if they can find one? Duane Matt and the BOD will have their hands full in identifying the next partner if they haven't already. This is one they can't mess up, again.
|
|
|
Post by mindovermatter on Jan 11, 2016 21:44:52 GMT -5
obamayoumama, How does this make sense to you then: - If Mngt knew that SNY would quit on Jan, why was Duane not around for the CC? The CC would have been long in his timetable. - If Mngt knew that SNY would quit, why was Matt's speech during the CC so "emotional" and in total rather improvised (the moderator, the speech itself, no Q&A and the whole set up) ? They had months to prepare for this. - If Mngt knew and were already preparing for a time after the split, why did Duane leave? If it was due to some TS break-through with a competitor of Insulet etc, why do they wait till the JPM conference to disclose this? It would be substantial news. The best guess is that the issue with the non compete was an issue last week and was trying to be resolved. When it was determined by Friday or so that Mannkind couldn't persuade Insulet to let Duane start to work early, we got today's PR. Mannkind just can't get a break. While I am not expecting much from Matt on Wed, it would be a nice change of bad breaks to finally get some good news.
|
|
|
Post by mindovermatter on Jan 11, 2016 20:17:39 GMT -5
Afrezza is clearly working. You can always pick the bone of the egg if you are the person who says Okay or Not Okay. A human's lung spread out is as big as a football field. Humans breathe in dirt, other particles into lungs. Humans lived through gathering and hunting around fire, cooking around fire. Have you blown ashes from stove before? Technosphere pieces are so much smaller than any of these. Do smokers need to do smoke test before buying cigarette. Nevertheless, I think the label thing can be overcome. It is just MNKD is short of cash. Tennis court. Not football field. And talking about football, Mannkind is not unlike the MN vikings field goal kicker.
|
|
|
Post by mindovermatter on Jan 11, 2016 15:58:49 GMT -5
KBIO was headed for / in bk and a "white" night came and it shot up instantly. How realistic a scenario is that for Mnkd? We actually have an fda approved drug after all and at these prices it seems very cheap for someone to swoop in and "steal" the company. Thoughts? Not similar at all. KBIO has no approved drug. The only reason, imo, Martin bailed them out was because he saw them as a nice shell company and that it would have cost him as little as possible due to their very small share structure. KBIO has just over 4 million shares OS. Also add into the equation that Al controls the company. No such SH had such control at KBIO. Mannkind needs a miracle at this point.
|
|
|
Post by mindovermatter on Jan 11, 2016 14:07:26 GMT -5
True but i think it is fair to question why Matt, as the CEO, didn't prepared in case Sanofi did pull out and why money wasn't raised when the PPS was much higher to help buffer the company. That's his job as a CFO. Mindovermatter, I completely disagree with you. I don't think it's fair to question Matt on those issues. First of all, how do you know what preparations were made for that contingency? Second, when would you have suggested the company raise money? When the price was $10, $9, $7, $5, etc??? Keep in mind, if the manipulators hadn't dragged the price down and the convertibles were exchanged for stock, there would be no liquidity concerns. On the flip side, I'm guessing, if the company had in fact sold stock at $6 and conversion happened, some of us would be criticising him for needless dilution. Third, I could ask you the same question. Why didn't sell your MNKD shares when the price was higher? I'm assuming you didn't. You're criticising with the benefit of hindsight. I did sell my first batch of shares when the pps was higher in the beginning of the year and when I actually did think they should do an offering in conjunction with the launch of Afrezza. I then bought back in a few months ago thinking Sanofi would kick things into high gear. Obviously that didn't happen and like the rest of you, am paying the consequences for.
|
|
|
Post by mindovermatter on Jan 11, 2016 13:35:02 GMT -5
Compound26, I echo a lot of your thoughts. I'm taking a pounding on my investment here but think it's disgraceful how some of you are talking about Matt. It's not his fault that Sanofi did what it did. I also don't think he could've done much about all the fud that's contributed so greatly to the stock's plummet. We're all big boys and girls, so we should take the pain without trying to blame someone else. Matt is going to need all the confidence and support he can get to move the company forward, and none of what's being said here is of any help to him or any long. Time to grow up. True but i think it is fair to question why Matt, as the CEO, didn't prepared in case Sanofi did pull out and why money wasn't raised when the PPS was much higher to help buffer the company. That's his job as a CFO.
|
|
|
Post by mindovermatter on Jan 11, 2016 12:30:44 GMT -5
My guess is about 4-5 Billion. The potential is there for a blockbuster if the company markets Afrezza properly. The new owner will do that and it it will be an company like Teva or another company that does not have an strong traditional injectable insulin product. Afrezza can work with any daily insulin. In some cases, it cuts back on the amount needed. It makes sense to me to go with a company that isn't so strong in the Diabetic space but with deep pockets. It will enhance Lantus (generic or otherwise), Toujeo, Tresiba, etc. With that being said, I totally agree with your post. In fact, I posted pretty much the same sentiment on "the other board" yesterday, I believe. Have always thought that being listed on TASE was more than for raising $. Of course, TEVA can buy it without it being listed in Israel, but I have to admit TEVA came directly to my mind at the time. And as a side note, didn't it seem strange that there as no mention of a search for a CFO? How many hats can Matt wear? CEO, CFO, IR, could be the janitor for all we know! TEVA or a similar company would not cannibalize their own sales and can market Afrezza with anything they choose.
Best scenario is that Mannkind was given an offer Al and the BOD can't refuse. Matt's role as CEO and CFO will be short.
|
|
|
Post by mindovermatter on Jan 11, 2016 12:08:24 GMT -5
I believe Matt was selected as CEO so they do not have to pay another executive salary while they TRY & sell the company. Just my .02 To me, it is now safe to say that something changed between the time they hired Desisto to now. Worst case, no one expected Sanofi to back out; I was having a hard time believing that theory, but now seems more plausible. Alternatively, a deal has become imminent that makes compensation of a new CEO unnecessary. I hope it is not that they have just decided to try and sell the company, now... If there is any company that I'd love to see take Affrezza would be Novo Nordisk and pair it with Tresiba. I'd also love to see that combo put Sanofi out of the diabetes business as it takes all market share away from them. As far as I am concerned, Sanofi can go choke on a a frog leg.
|
|