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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 11, 2016 11:51:35 GMT -5
Now we know why Matt sounded so flustered last Tuesday when it was him and not Duane giving the call. He knew that Duane was probably not going to be the CEO due to the legal issues.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 11, 2016 11:04:17 GMT -5
I would be thrilled with 2 bucks a share, but my guess is Al takes it private for about a buck a share-then he can sell off the assets himself While that is a scenario, I don't think he'll do that. He has a lot of people close to him and employees invested in Mannkind and I think he'll want to extract as much as he can for them. If anything, he sells the company for a lot less than he had hoped so those people can at least make something. The biggest disappointment has to be for diabetics who will most likely never be able to experience what Afrezza can do for them and for those who already know how wonderful it is. But at the end of the day, good management that makes sound business decisions matter. Mannkind didn't have that. Unless Al can find a buyer to continue Afrezza, he will have severely faltered with Mannkind and that is what people will unfortunately remember him by.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 11, 2016 10:30:26 GMT -5
Matt goes to the JPM healthcare conference and says what?
(Sanofi is still selling and distributing until April.) A fast acting prandial insulin that users are happy with. We will be lowering the price of Afrezza to .... We will be working with insurers to get technosphere insulin covered by more insurance plans.
What else? He can also say, "we still have an embarrassment of riches so any one that is looking to parnter, pleaaaaassse...pretty pleasssse.....with sugar on top...contact me ASAP!
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 11, 2016 10:04:43 GMT -5
The BOD better be looking to sell the entire company immediately. The only hope for Afrezza or TS is if they find a company with interest that can take it away from the incompetence that surrounds MNKD and help realize it's actual potential. Matt has done a better job than Hakan did, but I'm not confident he can handle it. The company needs fresh blood. That the BOD named him so quickly proves there are/were no other interested candidates that would take it. Incompetence at an level impossible to be described. It never ceases to amaze me. Don't worry. Hakan is still around to "advise" Matt if need be. Who knows, anyone trying to call Matt might end up having Hakan answer.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 11, 2016 9:57:59 GMT -5
So does this mean that DD won't be at the JPM conference? Mannkind has become one big cluster f*ck of a company. It might as just well name Martin Shkreli the CEO. It has nothing to lose to do so.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 8, 2016 19:09:17 GMT -5
Kind of like college football recruiting where coaches bring the recruits to their campus to sell them on the school, program, education etc... Maybe Al & Duane should host a recruiting type of visit for potential BP partners where they would all meet in Danbury. They can be shown the production facility & what it is capable of, meet Afrezza users (Sam & Eric) , Doctor's Bode & Edelman could talk about the results they have seen, potential global possibilities in foreign countries & hear from Al & Duane on their vision going forward without a partner. Just a thought since we seem to need a hail mary...... And if it's like the SEC or OHIO STATE, Al and Duane can give them $500 handshakes and have Al promise them more kick backs once they show they can sell the drug.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 8, 2016 18:19:45 GMT -5
That's why it's wise to look at every data point you have at your disposal. Do the statistics support or deny your hypothesis? If not, then you get to figure out if your testing method produced errant results or if your hypothesis was wrong. We have more data today than we did at FDA approval. I hope it's not being forsaken. In any case, pointing to the few companies that overcame the odds as justification to invest more sounds very dangerous and I hope people are being honest with themselves before taking the leap and adding shares. The one big thing going for Mannkind is that the drug has had about a year on the market and has shown it works and those who use it, rave about it. Not many drug companies have that on their side when they lose a marketing partner. The key now, as we know, is whether or not Mannkind can find a competent marketing partner. Sanofi showed it was not up to the task.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 8, 2016 17:09:09 GMT -5
Mannkind hasn't declared BK though. Odds aren't good the company survives but let's not make a claim that hasn't happened yet. I'm not making a claim about what has happened yet. The point of this thread was to use history to find similar companies whose stories ended up being successful. This board often times lacks balance. Very few drugs get developed with the intention of being a middle-of-the-road product. With the cost of R&D and marketing, only the best of the best ideas get pulled from to get brought to market. Every drug that gets developed was probably thought to be a blockbuster in its own right. For the record- I'm still on the Afrezza train. I still think it's an amazing product and I hope I'm wrong. But with social media and the internet, nothing extraordinary stays a secret anymore. At some point you just have to accept that maybe there isn't enough interest in Afrezza to thrive. The odds were already stacked against us when we were with SNY, and despite the spin the eternal optimists keep trying to use to say we're better off now, it's never a good thing when you get dropped by a company that specializes in the very business your product was tailored for. I'm not buying that SNY was afraid it'd cut into the market share of their other medications. The only way for it to do that would be for Afrezza to reach blockbuster status. Then, guess what? They have a new blockbuster on their hands. The only logical reason SNY decided to drop Afrezza was because they didn't think it would be a profitable addition to their portfolio. If they really saw such disruptive potential behind it, they wouldn't let it fall into the hands of their competitors... because, guess what? There goes all that market share again and this time they're not recouping any of it. Instead, they're losing all of it. I'm not saying that SNY did all they could to make sure Afrezza was a success, but I'm not saying they didn't, either. Gallop polls don't form their statistics after polling every single person in the US. They take a small sample size and extrapolate their data to make their generalizations. And they've done a pretty decent job if you do a study on them. Statistics are freakishly accurate when used well. Trend lines are accurate an overwhelming majority of the time. So why am I saying all of this? Because maybe instead of rolling out and spending $100 million to market this new drug, they took their time and were a little more strategic about it. I'm sure SNY knows who the right Docs were to contact in regards to being a little looser in their prescribing habits. They probably targeted them first. Then, it's not difficult to make inferences based off of feedback from them. The truth is, there are so many different variables that go into why Afrezza will succeed or fail. Insurance price, doctors willingness to prescribe, patient willingness to change a potentially lifelong brand that they're comfortable with and understand, etc. We need to remember that Afrezza didn't reinvent the wheel. There hasn't really been a dire need for a new insulin medication. The stuff we have now, while inferior, still produces decent results. If you own something that does what it's supposed to and gives you the results you expect, do you listen to people that try to sell you on "the next best thing?" I usually blow those people off. I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm saying it's even more improbable than before that Afrezza becomes what we all hope for it to become. By all means, do your research. Just make sure that you're being fair to yourself by looking for the rule and not the exception. An analogy I would draw for the feeling I get after reading some posters on this board is that they would sell their house to buy every powerball ticket they could afford and then be devastated when they didn't win. In reality, they didn't realize that what they were dumping their money into wasn't really that wise of an investment in the first place. It still makes me sad the people that put more money into this stock with the expectation that it will return appreciably. Any investment should be met with extreme caution and speculative at best. What sign, thus far, has Afrezza shown that it can be successful? understand. BTW, Gallup got out of polling, specifically politics at least for the primaries as they were woefully off during 2012 election. They haven't yet decided if they will poll for the presidential race. So even Gallup has seen things change so drastically that their bread and butter polling is no longer legit.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 8, 2016 16:44:40 GMT -5
The fact that Duane DeSisto has some serious experience in negotiating reimbursements with third-parties payers may be a much bigger deal than many shareholders realize, IMHO. Or not. Different times, different product, different atmosphere. You and others are making the same mistake that was made in assuming SNY was going to stick with Afrezza. No one knows what is in store or whether or not Duane will have any success at all. When Mark Pincus stepped down at Zynga and MSFT vet Don Mattrick came in, everyone thought Don would be able to turn ZYNGA around because he had so much gaming experience and knew the industry well based on his great performance while at MSFT. How did Don do? Don totally failed and was removed after 2 years. Pincus came back to take the CEO helm. Zynga is still floundering. It helped it had a few billion in cash which has dwindled down to 1 billion as of now but it's eating it up. If only Mannkind had that much cash on hand. Point is, past performance is no guarantee of future success. Mannkind is in a world of hurt and the company has to show it can pivot very quickly. Desisto has to perform something close to a miracle to turn the company around. I am not saying he can't but he's going to need a lot of prayers answered.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 8, 2016 16:34:13 GMT -5
This is all well and good, but why don't people spend their efforts researching companies like MNKD that went bankrupt to draw parallels? Y'all wonder why you were blind to what happened yet you only allow yourself to see half the story... Open both eyes, then make your judgement... Mannkind hasn't declared BK though. Odds aren't good the company survives but let's not make a claim that hasn't happened yet.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 8, 2016 12:32:44 GMT -5
Al.. pick up the phone now www.marketplace.org/2010/08/04/business/billionaire-giveaway-challengeMoon: Now, do you think this Giving Pledge approach is going to be a strong force for philanthropy? Do you hope this inspires others? Mann: Well, we hope so. Bill and Melinda Gates and Warren Buffett and a number of us have been meeting and talking, hoping to set examples, so people will become more oriented and more motivated to give their estates away, hopefully, during their lifetimes. It seems to me to make more sense to see the good that you can achieve with your money before you die, rather than afterwards. First off, no one knows how well liked Al is with other business people, tycoons and billionaires. 2nd, not one big time investor has ever invested in Mannkind and Mannkind has been in perilous situations before. Why would they now? The company is a mess right now and only those at Mannkind know what the strategy is. For all we know, their consultants could be telling them to pack it in. The cold hard fact is that Mannkind needs money to stay alive. The 60 million or so isn't going to last long. something needs to happen and happen quickly or the dreamboat goes POOF!
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 8, 2016 11:23:33 GMT -5
My original post was an estimate of breakeven point. I invited others on this Board to chime in and add knowledge. You contributed by pointing out that my estimate for MNKD losses under the SNY agreement was more like $175 mln rather than my $50 mln estimate. Let's work the simple math. If Afrezza's FY losses are $175 mln, and the corporate burn rate is $90 mln/yr in addition, it means breakeven is $265 mln. It is reasonable to estimate $500 mln as the sales needed to generate this type of cash flow. This is only breakeven on cash burn. It dos not mean MNKD shows a profit. On the other hand, you view $265 mln and say that sales need to be only $200 mln to show cash flow positive on Afrezza. And let the rest of MNKD run out of cash and go belly up. Is this reasonable? I know a lot about the Provenge story. You're extremely careless with your words, just as you are with the numbers. The $175 million was the loss to the Afrezza jv, not to MNKD. You should also keep in mind that the jv was supporting both SNY's large infrastructure and heavy launch costs. The costs should decline going forward. Now, doing the simple math, lets, for argument's sake, accept the $265 million breakeven, which is based on last year's revenues of $10 million. How do you jump to the conclusion that sales of $500 million would be necessary to essentially reach breakeven as a corporation? Are you suggesting gross margins would be in the neighborhood of only 50%. Getting back to your careless use of words, first, I have no idea what "you view $265 mln" means and second, where exactly did I say "sales need to be only $200 mln to show cash flow positive on Afrezza?" I did imply that sales of $220 million would be more reasonable to get to breakeven, and this based on the costs that derived from SNY's cost structure. I fully acknowledge this ignores MNKD's other costs, but, as I noted, getting Affrezza sales to rise meaningfully would give the company many more financing options. At this point Afrezza sales dictate everything. Your response also completely disregards both the fact that your $500 million, for whatever it's worth, was derived from a ridiculously incorrect starting point. Given the fact that you do acknowledge having gotten that number completely wrong, how do you justify staying with $500 million? Your conclusion also completely disregards the benefits of operating leverage inherent in the drug industry. As noted yesterday, even discussing your $500 million number is an exercise in futility, given 1. Your erroneous starting point; 2. Your shifting from $300 million to $500 million in minutes; and 3. All the other errors in your methodology. If you want to sow further doubt and misery, it's time to come up with something else. It is easy to be a message board armchair CEO and financial analyst. I am not sure why Mannkind didn't come here to pick one from here to be the CEO since it is obvious this place has the answer. How stupid are you and I to think this isn't just as simple as pricing. It's like me telling my wife that I fully understand her gender.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 8, 2016 6:19:16 GMT -5
Make it cheap enough and the insurance/payers will make them use afrezza $50 per box if no insurance and if insurance - tier 2 with no co pay . And insurance companies will do all the work for Mannkind There is no guarantee that lower pricing will move insurance to cover Afrezza. And let's say it does, the other issue is getting Doctors comfortable enough to prescribe it. Many on here seem to think the solution is very simple. It's not. Mannkind needs to find someone to pick up the marketing and sales. Insurance and docs acceptance won't matter if a competent partner to market and sell isn't found.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 7, 2016 10:05:52 GMT -5
Jefferies yesterday put a Buy recommendation. They have a $ 9 price target. Today will be interesting. The recs are meaningless at this time. Mannkind is like new road kill. You can label is as fresh meat but people are still not going to touch it or consume it.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 7, 2016 8:53:14 GMT -5
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