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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 6, 2016 19:01:51 GMT -5
I REALLY dont even want to bring this up but --- I was involved when Sirius went through this angst! I beleive that if a stock price stays under $1.00 for 30 days following Nasdaq issuing a"warning" - the stock will be delisted. IF this were to occur --- it is NOT good! Anyone else care to comment? I am so far under water on this equty that this would be the LAST thing we would need!! Never in a million years did I think that we would be were we are now! I thoroughly expected to be looking towards a retirement --- not now! 30 days under $1 then nasdaq warns them. MNKD then has 180 days to get compliant.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 6, 2016 13:56:24 GMT -5
The funny thing is the law firm points to an LA TIMES article quoting doctors that Afrezza was hurt by Sanofi not marketing the drug properly. This law firm should be suing SANOFI not Mannkind.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 6, 2016 13:41:26 GMT -5
Mods, please change headline. Mannkind isn't being hit with a lawsuit. This is the typical shyster law firm putting out a PR in hopes that they can get enough disgruntled shareholders to create a class action lawsuit. As the pr states, it's an investigation not a law suit. Headline is misleading. This firm along with others does this on a routine basis on any stock that takes a hit.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 6, 2016 11:47:58 GMT -5
I will be the first one to say I think they are done but they will be very forth coming at that conference. They have no choice now. You have to have something to say that will drive the market and I agree with you that they probably don't have anything new to bring up. The company needs to be sold. Perhaps they will state they are looking for a new partner for Afrezza but that does not deal with the real issue. The company without more dilution and crippling debt is cooked without a new owner. Only Al can make that sale happen since he controls 45% or more of the stock. If Mannkind gives specifics and lays out their strategy then this would tell us they have been working on this for awhile thus proving they knew the partnership was heading towards dissolution months ago.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 6, 2016 11:28:13 GMT -5
With dodgy insurance coverage and doctor reluctance, the best drug in the world is doomed to fail, at least in the US. I wonder if the US will now take a back seat to target a few other willing countries for Mannkind to let Afrezza stretch its legs. I am not sure we will get a clear picture next week at JPM of what strategy Mannkind will take. They had better come up with a strategy as fast as lightning. In fact, they better have been putting together a strategy for the past 6 months. If not, we are doomed. At the very least, management read the tea leaves, but without formulating a plan, they would have been even more incomptetent than they have already appeared to be. The conference will tell us everything we need to know. If the new CEO comes up with a coherent strategy, I know we will be ok. Again, don't be so sure we will hear a lot from the conference. I think we will hear more of, "we are working on......and we'll have more information to give out in the near future."
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 6, 2016 10:59:21 GMT -5
Some months ago, I postulated a TEVA partnership on the Yahoo board, over a series of several posts under proulxra59. Then they bought Allergan's generic drug business, including $20 B cash, which limits their ability with respect to a buyout, but not a partnership. I highlighted the similarities between the drug specialization within TEVA's Global Branded Products group and MNKDS stated TECHNOSPHERE product line candidates and they match up extremely well. There was also that job posting at MNKD for a VP of a partnership, which lasted about 24 hours on their website before it was taken down. It specifically referenced being a member of the GLOBAL branded Products group. That is most certainly TEVA. There are machinations taking place behind the scenes to which we're not privy and I highly suspect that there was a buyout offer which SNY was offered to match and chose not to do so. I believe that SNY was interested in the whole enchilada and signed the partnership because they could not come to terms. I would theorize that the San Diego meeting was a last ditch due diligence effort to determine if they should increase their offer. They ultimately realized that they would never be able to come to terms and elected to bail as opposed to accepting the risk of not being able to profit from the deal given what Al Mann was asking. Sanofi has clearly stated that their diabetes division is withering due to intense competition and why they are focusing on other diseases. I don't think they ever had an interest in buying Afrezza. We can only hope there is a solid plan in place to get Afrezza back on track.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 6, 2016 10:54:39 GMT -5
I am averaging down some more too. Al had said in the past that the price for Afrezza would be comparable to insulin pens, so they should have some runway to lower the price, which should help with insurance coverage. I also believe there is some low hanging fruit for use off-shore, and that there will be some good news on the Technosphere front soon. Maybe I am just stubborn and naive, but I CANNOT believe that a better performing insulin that does not require injection cannot ultimately be successful in the marketplace. With dodgy insurance coverage and doctor reluctance, the best drug in the world is doomed to fail, at least in the US. I wonder if the US will now take a back seat to target a few other willing countries for Mannkind to let Afrezza stretch its legs. I am not sure we will get a clear picture next week at JPM of what strategy Mannkind will take.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 6, 2016 9:57:45 GMT -5
Every investment bank has a transactions group that handles the merger, acquisition, and divestiture business, and a different arm that manages investment funds. Regulatory requirements impose a "Chinese Wall" which prevents members of the two groups from talking shop about specific clients. The M&A guys may very well have known about Sanofi's intentions, but the research analysts didn't hear it from them. If the research side came to the same conclusion that Sanofi would dump MNKD on their own or through other sources, that is fair game.
Secondly, the fact that Sanofi would probably dump MNKD in January was not exactly a well-kept secret on Wall Street. You could have read that rumor / speculation in any number of financial publications once the monthly scripts failed to impress.
Finally, just because Sanofi is looking to exit animal health doesn't mean that the diabetes guys are involved in those discussions. If you think that one business group of a major multinational knows what the other groups are doing, then you have a lot to learn about how multi-billion companies are managed. Executives often have no visibility to what is happening in the adjacent office because they are so immersed in their own challenges.
Again, another guy who got it totally wrong with his "Sanofi's brilliant market strategy." If this board was a business, he'd be fired for gross incompetence with his misguided analysis.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 6, 2016 9:43:12 GMT -5
I don't typically post here, but I need to interject some reality into this fantasy. Currently, MNKD's priorities are survival, which means focusing on a sale, or a partnership for Afrezza and Technosphere. Once they get the stock price back up, the priority needs to be funding through profitability. How do you think a lawsuit against their former big pharma partner might influence prospective partners for either Afrezza, or Technosphere ? Additionally, they are still in negotiations with SNY with respect to the details of the current and near future situation with Afrezza. SNY knows that there is potential for another damaging lawsuit and hence should be motivated to cooperate. MNKD can leverage that into SNY continuing to fund ongoing trials, making near term milestone payments as part of a settlement etc. The time to consider a lawsuit would be after the Afrezza sales and distribution situation has been settled, not before then. SNY, in exchange for some of the above would, of course, be requesting a final settlement where MNKD foregoes any further legal remedies. I hope that Desisto is a better negotiator than Hakan proved to be. Who knows. Sanofi MIGHT offer a nice parting package in the form of money to make sure Mannkind doesn't pursue legal recourse.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 6, 2016 9:02:33 GMT -5
The easy thing is to verbally say it. The tough part is actually putting it into action. I'm curious to know HOW Mannkind is going to execute on this. Maybe we'll get some idea of this next week but not going to hold my breath. I imagine these conversations were had with Desisto prior to the CEO announcement. Outlined in duplicate with circles and arrows?
In hind site, I remember the conference call when Matt was excited, because the money was pouring in. The sample orders... We maybe determined that afrezza was/is priced at 10 to 11 dollars a day with no spares and fast acting injectable analogs $3.19 a day. Price, the real problem in a nut shell. once covered, physicians will prescribe it... because of demand.
I concur that Desisto knew full well that Sanofi was exiting. It's why the PR of his hire NEVER stated a thing about being excited about working with Sanofi. Desisto is going to be very busy trying to save Mannkind.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 6, 2016 8:18:03 GMT -5
From the conference call "It became clear as 2015 progressed, and sales forecasts were not met that change would be required for Afrezza to achieve market success that we believe and still believe is possible. We next began a process of independent research that helped us validate that news sales efforts and a different pricing strategy was required. "
Matt told us the plan. The plan "- education: physician, patients." "redefining pricing, and contracting tactics to improve reimbursement and patient access to commercial and government payers."
"clean slate, new approach" "Now non exclusive"
investors.mannkindcorp.com/events.cfm
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Then the out licensing mention: "several potential out licensing transactions for additional product opportunities"
The easy thing is to verbally say it. The tough part is actually putting it into action. I'm curious to know HOW Mannkind is going to execute on this. Maybe we'll get some idea of this next week but not going to hold my breath.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 5, 2016 21:07:13 GMT -5
Sanofi may have had years, but that would have been years of examining results under strict trial protocols. Real world results are often unexpected, as liane stated above and as Afrezza's early adopters discovered.
I'm not discounting the argument put forth by cjc04 however. I just think the decision was made long ago. Contractually, Sanofi couldn't end the agreement until January 1, 2016. I also don't believe their statement today that the cost of bring Afrezza to market is too high. I happen to think that Sanofi decided to break with MannKind after its changing of the guard at the CEO position. Nothing more.
I also think that they will, one day, regret letting Afrezza get away and that Brandicourt will not sit on his throne for very long. Sanofi's diabetes franchise is crumbling. While the news today stings, hopefully it will end up being the best thing ever to happen to Mannkind because Afrezza has safely left the crumbling Sanofi empire unharmed.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 5, 2016 16:32:10 GMT -5
Did it start? I don't hear anything. Nope, I think they are trying to wake Al up first.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 5, 2016 16:31:30 GMT -5
I actually threw up in my toilet (brief and small) at the end of trading today from the nausea shock. NO JOKE. 12,000 shares@3.99. Guess I won't break even anytime soon or ever. I'd laugh if Mannkind announces today an anti nausea TS drug/deal.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 5, 2016 16:28:09 GMT -5
MannKind will host a conference call at 4:30 pm (Eastern Time) on January 5, 2016. To participate in the live call by telephone, please dial (888) 771-4371 or (847) 585-4405 and use the participant passcode: 4155 4306. Those interested in listening to the conference call live via the Internet may do so by visiting the Company's website at www.mannkindcorp.com. A telephone replay of the call will be accessible for approximately 14 days following completion of the call by dialing (888) 843-7419 or (630) 652-3042 and use the participant passcode: 4155 4306#. A replay will also be available on MannKind's website for 14 days. I was expecting to hear either Chopin Funeral March or Taps playing as the hold music.
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